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Bloodbath
The correction, soon to be crash, is here: the market had a bigger relative open to close move today than it did on May 6. We closed at the day's lows on massive volume, despite definitive central bank intervention, regardless whether it was the SNB, the ECB, or the Fed. The central planners have lost control of the market, and all thanks to the inevitable collapse of hyper capitalist Keynesianism coming out of the formerly most communist country in the world. A day of ironies. And it's not over. Futures are already down another 4 handles. The correction is coming, and it will be a bloodbath. The Fed can not push rates lower. It will print. It is inevitable. It is our destiny.
Update: Futures now 7 handles lower. 46 point move in ES: that is almost a 5% move in the S&P for now.
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Leo's defense has descended into the inane babel of a madman. How is China doing Leo? Since your not making money (read getting absolutely destroyed) at least Soros is right? That is the silliest augment, the owners will always make money. What the hell does that have to do with you getting taken to the cleaners?
And why does going short equate to packing the wife and kids in the car?
I thought you were an intelligent trader Leo, didn't you know you can make money on both sides of a market.
Last time the words were ... would have ... should have ... could have ...
This time could be a repeat.
jal
Have you ever tried to convice someone that they needed to own at least one gold coin? There is no escape. The average American is going down hard.
Tanks to you guys my sis finally got out on monday. Her financial advisor acted like she was crazy. My best friends girlfriend told me to STFU and that I don't know what I'm talking about. I told her she was right but to visit this page and listen to some that do, I bet she p'd her pants today cuz she didn't listen!!!
may I ask what on earth ever gave you that impression? he does not have the foggiest idea.
Stop picking on Leo. No one is right all the time, and he seems to be right more than his fair share.
At least my reps don't listen.
I wrote them about cap and trade, health reform, the bail outs, the audit the fed bill. All I got was a reply
dear constituent
(insert party ideology with no thought or specifics here. we know better than you
so shut up and take it)
thanks for writing.
Ah, Lucy.
I've written some of those letters.
They could care less.
Wow, you got a response? Amazing.
Folks - here's my crazy rant of the day. Don't prepare for a breakdown (at least not for long) as American's want order (we line up for anything) and will give power away to maintain order. So, lets assume unemployment is bad and gonna get worse, same for property values, same for all domestic assets (deflation) but ultimately through dollar printing international assets (oil, gold, commodities) will be rising in price. The "solution" (think like a populist political savior) to this crisis isn't inflation but protectionism. It was "their" fault (fill in bad foreign country here). We slap huge import taxes on everything we can make instead, shift to natural gas, domestic factories need to be built, domestic production needs new employees. It's just like WWII all over again except we get to rebuild this time and all foreign nations get to choke on our unpaid debts. HMMMMMM...you got a better theory?
Actually there is some good physics behind that scenario. Energy expands. Mass contracts. When things start to fall apart, the tendency is to gravitate into the nearest ordered collection. It will be interesting to see how this works out in our seriously chaotic society. Get to know your neighbors. They are your future tribe.
At least in my crazy world there is peace and order after an initial "crazy" period (even if we have it at the very strong end of the gov). American's just won't put up w/ chaos.
Plus, I don't have any weapons so I need a world where I don't get smoked by some guy who never saw any of this coming...sees me (who did see this coming and prepared) and helps himself.
redacted
Poor Cramer. I watched mad money just now so i could do a little superior dance, but when i heard Cramer's voice break on several occasions, i felt bad. He was really verklempt. Poor guy must have lost his shirt today.
Damn I wish I had watched that idiot tonight, I really would have enjoyed seeing that.
I wonder if the other chimps in the zoo were throwing poo at him again for having lost all their savings in banana futures?
I feel like I'm living in an alternate reality. I am walking amongst zombies who are drugged----whether it be prescription drugs, dancing with the stars, their favorite sports team, or their religious beliefs. It seems that a very few are willing to pay the price for freedom. "We" don't want freedom--we just want our drugs. The only thing I can think of to do is to step out of the system. I won't vote (No point in participating in a system that is rigged). I won't buy a home or property. I refuse to use a credit card. I refuse to watch television. and I will continue to accumulate precious metals and practice my rights afforded me by the 2nd amendment. All these things make me feel like I'm doing good. They also make me feel very lonely. I can no longer have conversations other than small talk with my friends and family. For all of you out there practicing a similar lifestyle I continue to feel a strong kinship with you. Perhaps we will live long enough to one day be vindicated.
Drugs, in both the literal and metaphorical sense, are a huge part of what has happened to this country. I simply don't believe the current level of apathy would exist if it were not for universal access to super-powered pot (20X the strength of 25 years ago and available on demand at my kid's high school 24/7) and tens of millions on SSRIs. We don't care and this is what happens when you don't care.
You might be surprised by the ZH community. Some of us might be very interested in this "super-powered pot" you speak of.
I'm going to smoke a fatty tonight just so I can savour the irony.
Disclosure: I didn't give a damn about economics or politics until after I started smoking pot. Go figure.
PS: You can get just as high on "regular" pot as you can on the "super-powered" pot. You just have to smoke more of the former.
PG,
life is short and then you're dead. Do you're best to remain upbeat (think like there was a likelihood...but not certainty...that earth would be hit by a meteorite but only you and some other wacko's knew). Would you get all bummed out and waste the few good remaining days or take advantage of the gift of foresight to make hay? Now is the time to travel, get close to your family, enjoy the last days of fall before the winter sets in. You can't stop it, can't change it, it really is no different than the seasons.
Please don't isolate yourself. Family and good friends are gold in times of crisis. I've tried to alert others only to be politely dismissed, however I am finding that with each prediction coming true (thanks ZH) my voice gains traction. Small steps. My hunch is we will learn to cherish our tribes.
My aunt who did not listen to me and did not move my mother's money watched my mother lose $93,000. That was a third of all she had and she is disabled. My aunt was pissed at me for upsetting her. I wrote her a "I think this is a big bad one coming in" letter about 2 weeks ago (she lives in FL too) and she is on it this time. I agree with you strongly. Don't give up on them.
dido
GS "conviction buys"
1. TXT - down 7.88%
2. HUN - down 8.5%
3. X - down 7.34%
4. MCK - down 3.18%
The after-hours bake-off is looking particularly ugly today. Lots of anger and angst in the pits. Wonder if this bitch will launch 4% down with the bell...
Bad Fridays seem to beget much worse Mondays too...
What seems to have been overlooked by just about all the business media as they panicked all day, was that jobless claims were terrible. Seems to have been lost in the hysteria.
Flip flopping - what a wanger, Harry!
Whoa! Harry! That's quite a reversal!
Have you spent any time discussing your change of outlook here yet (and I missed it)? Would definitely be very interested in hearing it...
-Hug-
Welcome to the bear camp. Cheer up, you can make money being a bear too - let's get some meat:)
F**k, now I feel like a JW.
They weren't terrible. They were down where they should have been in the middle of a depression that is taking no action to fix.
Next month is terrible. No next month is the holy trinity of terrible, ugly, and insane. Think of cute puppy pics then think of it's exact opposite.
Hadn't given that much thought. Thanks for pointing that out Harry.
I cant believe that the shit is actually hitting the fan. It is sad that ZH has been screaming this outloud forever, backing their words with hard facts, and yet the MSM and the vast majority of the general pop. was and continues to be clueless. Thank you ZH, Tyler, all the bloggers for giving me and my family the heads up months and months ago.
Tomorrow is going to be real nasty for Asia and Europe and even the US. For one nobody and I mean nobody wants to go long this weekend, they think and so do I that something is going to happen this weekend. And two, Germany really doesn't want to sign off on their share of the 750 Billion euro deal. Their share comes to I think 449 billion euros. That much money to bailout other countries which is only a stop gap. If I was Germany It is alot cheaper just to bailout their banks and the hell with everybody else. Merkels unilateral decree of no shorting of CDS is one of two things. It's either a deal she made to get the other parliment people to vote for this resolution, or it was something that was done to protect their banks because she knows that she doesn't have the votes.
Anything can happen, the rest of the world didn't know until she did it on the CDS non shorting.
Bailouts will come. Germany will pay. A great coalition government is in the works to get 2/3 crucial majority on laws and legislation to push through austerity.
Austerity means smaller government, reducing liabilities and more need for private funding. Higher taxes and maybe even a solidarity tax, like Germans are paying already since 1989.
Could be expanded to include the South.
Surrendering the Euro is not an option.
1) as a non violent person what I am going to say will be shocking.
2) this problem will not be fixed without much trauma and pain
3) the people will have to take control of their government with voiolence
4) the issue will be:
does the military kill honest hard working civilians, or not
I don't want this, I had hoped the system could reform. I hoped anarchy wouldn't be required or death and destruction. But, I don't think that is reasonable now. this site and myslf predicted violence a lont time ago. it has been delayed by poor policy, but the reasons stand.
Have you not read any history, nor watched the Thailand reports?
For several days I warned of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators - and this has been confirmed by the recent Euro break out.
The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Or not.
The Euro is consolidating.
Global trade realizing that, hey fuck this, we are still trading with a majority of people that get paid in Euros, have Euro savings and want to participate. Time to buy Euros.
I applaud the efforts of so many. I gave up trying to convince people to prepare a while ago. This is one of the first times in my life that I no longer want to be "right".
ok, everyone is making predictions.. here are mine.
EUR USD 1.35 target
markets are consolidating, that last bit of volume up was not really there to begin with.
rate cuts, QE to infinity, money is leaving markets to bonds, to cash, to gold, back to markets. anything that looks stable and eventually will produce a yield.
deflation is done in what will seem to be a split second.
market's action reminds me of q1 2009 with bottom in March before some big announcement, market technically oversold, and many scratching their heads and trying to "time" the market or being smarter than the rest by going short. we all know how that played out.
shorts may be too crowded. the bearish newsletters I'm getting were never right. trading the opposite worked. just sayin'
The “Flash Crash” of May 6, 2010 occurred on the same day the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation "expanded its public release of data in the Trade Information Warehouse's global repository to include a breakout of outstanding credit default swap (CDS) contract values in their currencies of denomination"?
http://www.dtcc.com/news/press/releases/2010/index.php
The DTCC was created in 1999, is owned by its principal users financial institutions and settled more than US$1.48 quadrillion in securities transactions in 2009. It is the hub from which deals simple or complex, transparent or opaque, are cleared in 122 countries.
Does anyone feel there is a correlation between the two?
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