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Bloomberg Interviews Goldman's Rapaciously (For The Time Being) Bullish Jan Hatzius

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Jan Hatzius is the bellwether of the sellside economist crowd. When he was bearish (2009), most were bearish, when he turned bullish (early half of 2010), everyone else followed suit. Then he turned bearish again (early August 2010) and convinced his friend and former co-worker Bill Dudley to launch QE2. Then, in December, he turned very bullish again. And now we are here. We expect Hatzius to be fake bullish for another 3 months max, at which point he will have no choice than to start telegraphing to Jon Hilsenrath that it is time for QE3. In the meantime, for those who are not too familiar with his work, here is an extended interview with Bloomberg TV, in which the GS head economist talks about Goldman's call for 18% gain in stocks this year as well as trends in jobs, inflation and other data indicators.

Part 1

Part 2

Summary thoughts:

On the Middle East and how it plays into Hatzius' economic outlook:

"It's certainly a reminder that there are still some significant risks in the global economy and of course, especially to the extent that it affects oil prices and commodity prices more generally. Having said that, our outlook for global growth and the U.S. economy is pretty positive. We think close to 5% GDP growth this year and next year in the global economy and sort of 3.5% - 4% over the next two years in the U.S.  It's a reasonably upbeat view."

On global food inflation:

"[Food inflation] is certainly on our radar. It is not yet fully in the inflation data here, that 's still going to happen over the next few months.  We will see upward pressure on the headline CPI numbers as the food price inflation shock feeds through.  At the margin, that is going to be a drag on household budgets.  Having said that, there are also a number of more positive factors pointing in the other direction and that improve household budgets, the improvements in the labor markets probably the most important of them. It is a potential negative, but I think it is being outweighed by other forces."

On unemployment levels:

"I think it's going to take a long time for the unemployment rate to get back to the pre-2007 levels. I do think that job creation is in the process of picking up.  I think that is not yet as visible in the payroll numbers as is in a lot of other labor indicators like the household survey, like the jobless claims data, like the job vacancy data, like the household perceptions of job availability. None of these things are going to normalize in the short term.  But I think at the margin, they are getting better. Labor market income is going to be a more important force in terms of household income than the food price inflation in the United States.  Elsewhere in the world, it is going to be different. In the emerging world, food takes up a much larger share of overall household budgets and that is why it is a more acute issue."

On consumer spending:

 
"I think the first quarter looks a lot softer than a fourth. The number now on record for the fourth quarter is 4.4% … I think it will come down a bit in the wake of the downwards revisions to the retail sales report.  I think the first quarter will be softer. Over the next year or so, I would expect something like 3.5% consumer spending growth, definitely better than what you have seen for the last few years, though not as strong as the recent spurt."

On whether this is a buying opportunity in the market:

"Our strategists are generally pretty constructive.  I think it's the flip side of an economic outlook that is reasonably good in terms of GPD growth…It is not a super strong relative to the downturn we saw, but it is clearly better than we have had in the past few years. A low inflation, low rate environment, policymakers staying on the sidelines and letting that return to higher levels of employment happen for while, I think that's a fairly positive environment and the way our strategists translate it is to S&P 1500 by the end of the year."

On inflation:

"I'm not that worried [about inflation].  I do think the headline inflation numbers are going to be higher as the food price inflation shock does work its way through the numbers.  But in terms of the underlying inflation trend, my view is there's a lot of slack in the system early in the recovery. Typically when there is a lot of slack, inflation remains very low and that is our outlook.  I am probably at the margin a little more sanguine."

On job creation:

"We're expecting it by the second half of the year, 200,000 to 250,000 on non-farm payrolls. That means you move to a situation in which you sustainably create more jobs than the trend increase in the working age population, which means the unemployment rate comes down on a sustained basis. But because the starting level was so high, you are still at 8% by late 2012.  It is a level verses rates of change thing.  The rates of change look like it will be significantly better but the levels are unsatisfactory.  That is very much true in the labor market as in other areas."

 

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Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:05 | 965322 buzzsaw99
Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:16 | 965349 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"policymakers staying on the sidelines"

how long will they stay there on the sidelines and let Jan and his company do God's work without interference?

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:08 | 965333 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

suiztah naj

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:08 | 965335 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Classic psychology - herd following behavior.  It served our ancestors well, but makes investing, or forecasting, very, very hard.

Not to mention the real career pressures to conform to the company's stated position.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:37 | 965385 gwar5
gwar5's picture

.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:36 | 965399 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Later, among the ashes, he'll testify that he was just following orders...

Inflation "a drag" on households but, by golly, the S&P should be go to 1500 this year.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:44 | 965400 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..we're early in the recovery.."

Yes sure, and I'm off to grab my pot of Gold at the end of the Rainbow too... i suspect we'll arrive at the same time to 'Point Fantasy' 

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:45 | 965418 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Nirvana's just around the corner

hanging out with the housing bottom.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:51 | 965430 thepigman
thepigman's picture

What???? Everything's already priced

beyond nirvana? Well, fuck all.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 23:09 | 965733 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

how much better Goldman Sachs had gone bankrupt in 2007-08 and we wouldn't have had to put up with 3 years of BS from these insolvents?

Capitalism is supposed to work by killing shit like this, now you understand why it's so important, gives your bleedin' ears a rest just for starters

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:40 | 965409 thepigman
thepigman's picture

He's already hedging. My bs meter

detects he is  shifting all the happy

outcomes to the 2nd half,  so he's

already sensing trouble ahead.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:42 | 965411 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Low inflation is an easy call when you know the CPI is rigged to the overweight in housing. Rock on, dude.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 22:54 | 965414 99er
99er's picture

RUT

18% "gain"?

Edit: Russell futures added.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:50 | 965425 co2010
co2010's picture

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Tue, 02/15/2011 - 22:22 | 965642 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

get lost, Bitch

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 20:50 | 965428 co2010
co2010's picture

MBT simulates natural conditions for your feet to walk and run farther and longer. The MBT Womens Koshi Sandals Brown do work. MBT writes unbalance for your body and feet so you have to react to receive adapted to it,read more. So,Ive been being amazed what on earth population are thinking come seal MBT shoes Chapa Coffee.From my very bodily perspective outlook, Id consider that for bulk people,MBT shoes and Masai Barefoot Technology immobile remain a high suspect tag in their heads.What what what How how how Indeed, Womens MBT Shoes VOI is a very decorative invention. Karl Mull,who is the inventor,unveiled to us the sighting that had been through stared for hundreds (if not thousands) of years. The sighting is, human feet are not arranged for even ground. For too prolonged have we been walking on bathe, flat and hard grounds. For too prolonged have we been riding horses and buses, or flying. We forgot that we are immobile what we are: vibrant being in the nature.We Womens MBT Sirima Shoe sacrificed ourselves to let go of machines. We sacrificed our feet for aesthetic reasons. We sacrificed our medicinal for convenience.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 22:23 | 965643 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

get lost, Bitch

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 21:12 | 965490 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

On whether this is a buying opportunity in the market: 

First of all it's a Borse not a Market anymore. 

 

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 00:09 | 965840 mcguire
mcguire's picture

lol!

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 21:20 | 965507 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

We're on our way to the mother of all train wrecks.

Gawd.

 

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 22:24 | 965646 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

of cosmic proportions, yo

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 23:11 | 965740 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

no, more subsidies to prop up AmTrak

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 21:23 | 965513 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

Global Food Inflation: here to stay as a chronic thorn in the side, a sore that never fully heals. It will eventually turn ugly as it ends up being the only thing that matters anymore to an increasing number of countries and populations. 

Unemployment levels: this was another leg down in the ongoing downsizing of America. There won't be full or even adequate replacement of jobs lost as a result of the crisis during the ensuing business cycle. And then the next leg down. Around the world tonight, levels of unemployment are unprecedented. In the US the numbers appear better than they real are thanks to the magic of data massage (read participation rate and other stupid BLS tricks). But nobody's fooled except for those who chose to fool themselves or con others. There won't be a reaction until the elite begin to fear for their lives and property. 

Consumer spending: the nub of the issue since our partners in crime (mainly China) depend on this. Biflation will continue to ensure the further erosion of consumer buying power. That in turn will erode margins further. Wash rinse repeat. Double WHammy. 

Inflation: Headline numbers appear better because inflation and deflation are canceling out. As I've said many times. CPI is 40% housing related. Nuff said. 

Job creation: is fine in China and Russia thanks to US multinationals shifting their focus and endeavors. They'll sooner hire there than here. 

 

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 21:46 | 965551 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Jan Hatzius is just another "cattle prodder" in the PPT's arsenal to get the herd moving in the direction the PigMen are trading.

May 2008:  "Buy, Buy Buy!!!  Subprime is contained, no impact on the economy whatsoever!!"

September 2008:  "Sell!!!  There are cracks in the system, GDP is going to implode!!!"

April 2009:  "Buy, the Fed is going to keep buying more CDO Squared/Cubes!!"


 

May 2010:  "The Fed is stopping QE!!  The Flash Crash means the system is going to implode!!  Sell!"

September 2010:  "The Fed is cranking up QE2!  They were only kidding about withdrawing stimulus.  Full speed ahead!!  Buy, Buy, Buy!"


Wed, 02/16/2011 - 00:10 | 965843 mcguire
mcguire's picture

which one is cramer??

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 21:46 | 965553 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Mein Gott Jan, halt endlich die Schnautze Du blamierst dich nur!

 

 

 

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 22:34 | 965663 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

WHAT A BUDDY HOLLY LOOKING FREAKAZOID.

 

UNDERNEATH THAT SKIN IS A LIZZARD OVERLORD WAITING TO MOLT.

Tue, 02/15/2011 - 23:02 | 965717 chump666
chump666's picture

So the dumb arse investments banks hold commodity/stock/risk FX longs, they are about to get squeezed to hell.   They are long everything.  With the Fed backstopping they couldn't go wrong. 

now the feeble attempt at a bull trap

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 00:38 | 965872 poor fella
poor fella's picture

He looks, talks, and thinks like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

Post lobotomy...    drivel and b.s.

** time - for - the pillow **

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 01:28 | 965936 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Lying,cheating,thieving Banksters make me puke.

But I hear they make good compost.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 01:46 | 965947 maneco
maneco's picture

This guy is full of it. Seems more like a PR man than an economist!

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 06:22 | 966109 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

I have no faith in any public statements coming out of Goldman Sachs.

If any of their employees have the time, please explain why we ought to trust or believe.

Wed, 02/16/2011 - 06:53 | 966121 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

"Having said that, there are also a number of more positive factors pointing in the other direction and that improve household budgets, the improvements in the labor markets probably the most important of them. It is a potential negative, but I think it is being outweighed by other forces."

Can somebody translate this for me?

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