Bloomberg's "Chart Of The Day" Warns Of Coming Surge In Wheat, Corn Prices

Tyler Durden's picture

Now that the Chairman's new mandate is not to prevent disinflation but to generate inflation, he may soon be patting himself on the back... but for all the wrong reasons. As the Bloomberg chart of the day indicates, the world may very soon see a surge in wheat and corn prices, pushing such staples as bread and corn flakes through the roof. The reason, in addition to Bernanke's flawed monetary policy: "bad weather and a shortage of farmland threaten to create supply shock waves." As the chart below shows the price of a basket of grains and palm oil has risen almost 50 percent since the 50-day moving average passed through the 100-day line. On the two previous times this occurred the past decade, prices about doubled or tripled over the following two years before peaking. In other words, if history is any indicator, we may see a quadrupling of input prices from here as the last "food inflation" bubble is recreated. Are double digit prices for a loaf of bread in the immediate future for what will soon be a hungry US middle (what's left of it), and not-so middle class? Quite possibly. Luckily, all their stock gains should more than offset this upcoming price shock. Or not.

More from Bloomberg:

Drought in Russia and other parts of Europe, excessive rains in Canada, dry weather in the U.S. and flooding in Pakistan prompted the UN Food and Agriculture Organization to pare its harvest estimates. The agency forecast a 37.4 million metric ton shortfall in grains production for 2010, which would be the first deficit in at least three years. Global production of grains will be 2.216 billion tons this season, compared with demand of 2.254 billion tons, the FAO said last month.

“Our main concern is the low level of stocks,” Abdolreza Abbassian, secretary of the trade markets division of the agency’s Intergovernmental Group on Grains, said in a phone interview from Rome. “We don’t have enough buffer in the event of a major shortfall in production next year.”

After October and November saw a series of basic staples opening limit up on the commodity exchanges, it appears that the recent brief respite of price moderation may soon be coming to an end:

Wheat futures surged to the highest in almost two years on Aug. 6 after the worst drought in at least half a century slashed grain harvests in Russia, prompting livestock feed users to switch to corn. Demand for that grain rose as a result, while dry weather threatened to curb yields in the U.S., the world’s largest producer, and hamper planting in South America. Corn prices have risen about 70 percent since this year’s June 7 low.

“These are symptoms of having tight markets for nearly all the major food crops, the result of which is that whenever any of them has a problem, you will see spillover with the others,” Abbassian said. A further boost in demand “could find the stocks at even a tighter situation. That could really send shock waves throughout the sector, starting with corn.”

As to what this means for retailers who will be even more hard pressed to find ways to squeeze every penny out of margins, and not pass through costs, just look at the rather unfortunate case study of GAP, which filed for bankruptcy a few short hours earlier.

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Everyman's picture

And here comes the price inflation.

dukeness's picture

Comes?  It's been here since May.  Print On, Brother Ben!

morph's picture

You can't make iPads and TV's out of wheat.

snowball777's picture

You can't sell them with margins to people who spent all their money on eats either.

Young's picture

Considering the amounts of food fat ass people in the west consume, this is what's gonna start a war... That or the lack of rare earths to produce iWhatthefuckevers...

DaveyJones's picture

you should work in marketing

Sudden Debt's picture

LET THIS BE THE DAY THAT POPCORN GOT MORE EXPENSIVE.... the end...

LMAO's picture

"Chart Of The Day" Warns Of Coming Surge In Wheat, Corn Prices

"And here comes the price inflation"

 

All of this must be extremely good news for the "foodstamp(ede)" programm and the people who are paying for it, or am I missing something?

LMAO

Turd Ferguson's picture

Good morning, Mr. Cost.

Hello, Mr. Push.

Btw, I'm all over wheat. Have been for a while. Not even discussed yet is the drought in the winter wheat belt of central NE, western KS, Western OK and into TX. Some places have been 4 weeks with no measurable precip. Very cold and very dry means very bad yield in the spring.

Calmyourself's picture

Is not possible, RNR told me there is no inflation as printing money is not inflationary.. So there..

jdrose1985's picture

It's supply and demand. The article rightfully and plainly states that it is due to crop conditions.

 

Calmyourself's picture

Thats why gas is over $3.00, supply and demand, lots of driving to do in three feet of snow..

flattrader's picture

If you think simple supply and demand are at work, you are deluded.  Crop conditions is the cover trader use.

Try manipulated supply and demand.

Read what Goldman Sach did to food prices during the last bout of food inflaton.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796

No problem with starving the world's poor.

It's deja vu all over again.  Only this time it will be the middle class here in addition to the poor and working poor here and abroad.

And I'm sure they'll have a hand in rising gas prices, just as the article indicated their past involvement.

flattrader's picture

If you think simple supply and demand are at work, you are deluded.  Crop conditions is the cover trader use.

Try manipulated supply and demand.

Read what Goldman Sach did to food prices during the last bout of food inflaton.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796

No problem with starving the world's poor.

It's deja vu all over again.  Only this time it will be the middle class here in addition to the poor and working poor here and abroad.

And I'm sure they'll have a hand in rising gas prices, just as the article indicated their past involvement.

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

RNR told me there is no inflation as printing money is not inflationary.. So there..

Don't distort my argument.  That is NOT what I said.

For the 50th time, I said QE2 is not a money printing policy.  


DaveyJones's picture

you could always take your ball and go home

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Paper food: DBA and CORN

Buy real food too.  I am also looking at water treatment options.

Don´t forget the gold and silver which will likely be tradeable for food.

Guns & ammo to protect your real assets.

Lets Hang Parliament's picture

You are assuming the water company will still be pumping?

tmosley's picture

Best get yourself a well, AND solar panels to run the pumps.  I did.  Feels good, man.

ReeferMac's picture

Got the same unit!.

With my generator, battery back-ups, and booster-pump setup, I can make potable water w/o the utilities.

papaswamp's picture

Hopefully you have a wind and solar generator....gas will run out first. Also gas generators are noisy and say...I have a generator and fuel. 

-Michelle-'s picture

That's why we ultimately decided against purchasing a generator.  The one thing I'd want a generator to run would be our a/c and that would require a huge amount of fuel anyway. 

 

Calmyourself's picture

Dig hole, place the genny level with ground with over head cover, railroad ties, knock almost all DB's off..  Good for running well to fill two 55 gallon water barrels upper floor gives pressure to lower.  Pex fittings to copper, faucets work..

hedgeless_horseman's picture

I don't mind repeating myself:

Simple Pump: http://www.simplepump.com/

It is in the same casing as my electric pump, about 10 feet above the submersible, a couple hundred feet down.  I can charge our pressure tank by hand, or by solar.  Make sure to add a faucet at the well head, too.

flattrader's picture

I would think that if water and electric utilities are not operating, after a very short time you'll be fair game for scavengers.  Unless your property is fully defensible and your firepower significant, it's only a matter of time before you're found and goodbye to solar panels and gennie.

Think about going mobile.  Sawyer water filters are good if you're on the move.  High capcity and can be back flushed for cleaning.

Having the ability to run your own pump is good only if there is an extended outage or if the cost of electric rises significantly---and that's about all.

Any long term, wide scale disruption of power either signals a breakdown civil order and/or a natural disaster...Hopefully, the latter.  Sometimes people will pull together until infrastructure is set right...somtimes.  I've seen it go both ways.

Lndmvr's picture

Build a still and learn to use it. Clean water from any source, just need a heat source, wood when all else fails. Some corn and potatoes and you can have something to drink and run the car, or generator, or tractor. BTW, older gas tractors are looking better than diesel everyday.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Yeh and you can go blind too.

 

Devore's picture

We'll find out soon if you can eat fiat money.

jdrose1985's picture

No, not when it can't be found.

palmereldritch's picture

For some reason I have this song stuck in my head

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl2fONPgIJE

Oppressed In California's picture

And when I hear that song, I think of this movie:

Elwood: What kind of music do you usually have here? 

Claire: Oh, we got both kinds. We got country *and* western. 

Winisk's picture

The best way to herd any animal is to provide the easiest path to where you want them to go and keep them moving.  Don't let them stop and think. 

flacon's picture

I got mine here:

yourfoodstorage.com

I'm thinking about buying the rest of my life's worth of food and storing it. Screw the supermarket! (and Monsanto)

RobotTrader's picture

Weimar right around the corner it seems. No wonder stocks are skying.

Golden monkey's picture

But but, Benny the monkey is a powerful man. His friends in D.C. will help the poor sheeple with price control and free soup.

And there will be no Cubana style scarcity. I know it, because Benny knows it. Benny and the black monkey control everything.

Right?

 

 

JimmyTheHand's picture

Hehehe....

"No soup for you!!!"

Sorry, read your post and it reminded me of the soup Nazi on Senfield.

Golden monkey's picture

History proved the Führer was a stupid man.The same will apply for Bernanke.

Got silver? Double soup for you, bitchez!

AnAnonymous's picture

The US are already at starving the rest of world. They are going to use that natural event to enhance their effort.

Nobody will  be close to know starvation in the US (save the usual suspects who are used to dieing from famine in the US, no matter what) as Bernanke, in a smithian approach, will use the US population as an army of glutoons to increase pressure on food prices.

Instead of that, check your positions on every commodity long contract you hold as many, many countries in the world will have to sell even more of their future to overcome the starvation operation led by the US.

Classical US business style, you should know the drill by now.

jdrose1985's picture

How sad and true at the same time. Just thinking about it last night. Basically the top eliminating the non performers. Eventually it will reach the USA as yield extraction becomes impossible from any place.

AnAnonymous's picture

I dunno. It has little to do with performing. On the contrary.

That's a free market economy and production is put on the market. Producers have to buy it back. As their production is priced in USD, they stand no chance in any bid contest against the US. No matter how performing they are, the US can cover with a better bid because the US does not pay for USD.

It is impossible to win an auction against the US on commodities.

Oh regional Indian's picture

The commodity Complex. So easy to bunch everything in the Complex. Yet, within said complex are so many variable "goods" and "bads", some dependent on other "goods" in said "complex", others stores of "value", yet others slaves to "price".

The master stroke, if there is such a thing when innovation met finance was forcing false arbitrage into "goods" that should have only responded to natural demand/supply constraints.

When this complex complex crashes, it will end up leaving milk being flooded onto dry plains and wheat stocks being bunt to "support" "prices".

Apologies for all the " " but those words are loaded.

Financial innovation, meet your bastard spawn.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com