BLS Discloses It Has Overrepresented Payroll Data By 824,000 Or 15%

Tyler Durden's picture

A part of today's BLS announcement that has not received much attention is the BLS' own disclosure that it "may" have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in LTM period ended March 2009, in addition to the already disclosed 4.8 million job losses. From the BLS:

In accordance with usual practice, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 5, 2010, with the publication of the January 2010 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).

Table B shows the March 2009 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at a total level.


All this simply means is that once the full extent of the collapsing employment picture is revealed on February 5 next year, the market will explode to record highs: after all the worse the economic news are, the better for the stock market. With Obama and the Chairman's "Moral Hazard National Doctrine," all unprecedented bad news mean is that ever more and more and more dollars will be burned at the altar of major insider selling and financial company/REIT follow on offerings, courtesy of the US government inflated stock market bubble.

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Divided States of America's picture

I like how all the revisions have a ' - ' in front of it.

Assetman's picture

... except for "Government".  That made me laugh even more.

Bearish Spirits's picture

So when this is officially revised in February, will it rocket the unemployment rate? 

Maybe they'll say the vast majority of those people have fallen out of the labor pool, therefore the rate is not affected.

Anal_yst's picture

It might not affect U-4, but it will the other(s).

PAPA ROACH's picture

This whole market is merely a mirage, everything about it is stamped by GoldenMan Sacks.

Anonymous's picture

If two negatives make a positive
what is the effect of twelve?

lizzy36's picture

Tyler, I am sensing a new level of cynicism. And I am enjoying it!

bugs_'s picture

We are all Moral Hazard National Doctrinists now.

Cursive's picture

I can hear Kudlow, Beaker or Liesman now..."Moral Hazard Nazis"

Problem Is's picture

"We are the Moral Hazard Preservation Society.
God save Jamie Dimon, Moriarty and Dracula.

We are the desperate Cramer appreciation society.
God save CNBC, vaudeville and variety.

Preserving the old ways, so we can be abused.
Protecting the oligarchy, so they can rape me and you.

What more can we do?

We are the Goldman Sucks condemnation affiliate.
God save Maria B., her D cups but not her virginity.

We are the Dennis Kneale Schadenfreude society.
God save Larry Kudlow and all the cocaine awarded him.

Preserving the old ways, so we can be abused.
Protecting the oligarchy, so they can rape me and you.

What more can we do?"

The Kinks...
The Village Green Preservation Society.

Anonymous's picture

are these really lyrics from the kinks?

wherever they come from they are great....

Problem Is's picture

No the song was written in the 60s. It is the Kink's framework... I took liberties.

Problem Is's picture

Here is the original for those who don't remember or know the melody...

Anonymous's picture

I believe that SPY at 102.81 (as of 12:39) is a potential critical level to figure out whether the gang is planning a big leg up or willing to let the market fall more.

Anonymous's picture

You would think that MSM would raise hell about the monthly revision of data(always upward for unemployment,and downward for cpi). But of course that dosn't happen. But we also must sympathize with the fact that they are all parts of publicly traded companies. And hard facts driving their shares down,may end the carriers of some of the most wonderful journalistts,who works for the new Pravdas of the capital system.

Lou629's picture

We have ZH, so who needs the so called 'msm' anyway?  In addition, Denninger has been all over this on his blog since early this morning

digalert's picture

CNBC is in shock, all the analysts, the charts, the fundies and attention to details yet Obama fails in the olympic games. oh well

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is typical of manipulated economic numbers. Make them look better when every job lost is looked at critically. Later, when the panic has passed and the recovery has begun, reveal the "error" as old news and no longer relevant.

I suspect the second dip of this depression will not allow it to be swept under the rug. Yes, I know they have reasons for the error in the numbers. They ALWAYS have reasons to explain what they do. This is all part of the con. 

You don't think they'll just come right out and tell us they play with the numbers for political purposes, do you? The best cons always have plausible deniability built in.

Anonymous's picture

Which means that the numbers are irrelevant and not tradeable information and never have been and the insiders know it.

Cursive's picture

+ 10000000000000

Anonymous's picture

of course it was deliherate fraud...

john williams tells of some interesting
stories back during daddy bushfraud's re-election
campaign where campaign officials told ibm
to massively inflate sales numbers so that
gdp would show a rise...i am sure other
companies did likewise....

emsolý's picture

"This is typical of manipulated economic numbers. Make them look better when every job lost is looked at critically. Later, when the panic has passed and the recovery has begun, reveal the "error" as old news and no longer relevant."


...what a beautiful example of cognitive dissonance!

glenlloyd's picture

Nine to twelve months after the fact the change to official unemployment will be nil. Most of these folks will already be past regular unemployment claims and into extended benefits so they won't count.

ZerOhead's picture


In the medical community I think they refer to it as a by-pass operation...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


The ultimate by-pass alright. It seems to me that with the Fed making money on demand with little more than a key stroke, they don't need no stinking consumers, unemployed or otherwise.

At least until either the entire house of cards falls apart or every worker bee is happily back to work. I'll takes odds on the former.

Herne the Hunter's picture

After a while, the public gets used to these kind of shenanigans and starts looking somewhere else. It won't be long before another entity, private or public, takes over from government to publish numbers that are accurate or at least not politically biased.

Anonymous's picture

numbers, we don't need no stinking numbers.
sheeet, we got a video camera and uboob:

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


Great video link. I loved the part about plenty of sand for his mutt to sheeet.

Anonymous's picture

One already has, it is called Shadowstatistics

max2205's picture

Sure they will be.....they'll be dead or eaten as solet green

Bruce Krasting's picture

Rounding error. These folks have no clue what the 'real' number is. I would suggest that the error rate is +/- 20%.  It is curious that all these six month old benchmark revisions are negative..

Look at the brightside. The adjusted job losses will be headlines when the press wakes up. This will cause a stir on the Sunday talk shows, The President will speak in a grave voice that the Government is doing everything that it can. Shortly thereafter the newly re-appointed Bernanke will say that the Fed will chip in and expand the QE Treasury coupon buys by another $500b. The next day the FHA will announce a new program. 110% mortgages for anyone with a credit card.

This is all going to work out fine. Not to worry.



ZerOhead's picture

Ha ha ha...

"The adjusted job losses will be headlines when the press wakes up."

Good one!

Sometimes I think that Roche has the entire nation hooked up to a Rohypnol drip.

Or was it a suppository...

I can't remember anymore... when I wake up though my an&s is bleeding.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Wasn't Marla talking about Thorazine suppositories yesterday?

Hey, if you're gonna take it up the rear end, it might as well be painless.

ZerOhead's picture

It's never painless for a cat...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

You look familiar. Have I seen you somewhere?

Are you one of them there celebrity cats? :>))

MyKillK's picture

I was thinking this would be the perfect moment for Obama to announce a 2nd stimulus package. 

Anonymous's picture

this would be a perfect time for obama to
announce his resignation and pound his ass
with a carton of suppositories....

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

of course "they lie."

between the birth/death model, changing the formula to derive the number, to not counting the forlorn one has to even question why sensible people even concern themselves with the number.

unemployment is high and going higher. btw, what's the driver of the economy for the future?

meanwhile, my heart goes out for all the unemployed whose dreams have been shattered with outsourcing and offshoring.

TraderMark's picture

I highlighted that too


Just imagine all the market cap we added on "better than expected" unemployment.  LOL.


I wonder if this is the birth death model being rescinded - i.e. all these construction jobs in companies too small to measure they have been adding

p.s. real unemployment as measured pre 1990s forward adjustments is now 14%ish... i.e. if we measured as we did in the Carter Reagan years.

max2205's picture

Why don't they just 'say' we just gained 2 million jobs in Oct and please go about your business. Same fucking thing

TraderMark's picture

"All this simply means is that once the full extent of the collapsing employment picture is revealed on February 5 next year, the market will explode to record highs:"


The new stock market


good news is good

and bad news means more stimulus

boo yah

ratava's picture

What do you do once you are ineligible for unemployment? a) crime b) starve c) gamble off grandmas 401ks, then starve

zarrmax's picture

It's called hooking....

Anonymous's picture

It's all "priced in" so it doesn't matter.
Move on.

TraderMark's picture

also its a lagging indicator don't forget


I suppose it will be a lagging indicator until the masses are huddled with pitchforks at tha gates of the estates of the CEOs


then less of a lagging indicator

Rusty_Shackleford's picture

I heard a new meme on CNBC this morning:


People that have been fired and are jobless are NOT "unemployed".

They are "workers on the sidelines".  They are just waiting for the job market to improve. 


Let that one sink in for a minute.

Hrundi V. Bakshi's picture

wow, people are equated to "money on the sidelines", by cnbc's account there is a lot of "money on the sidelines".

economessed's picture

uhm, well.... YES.  Yes, we are "building employment capacity!"  How green shooty is THAT?

Obviously, in a CNBCish sort of way, we can deduce that when we eventually arrive at a point where we need human labor again, it will be available, thereby increasing the speed of TEH RECOVOREE!!!!!


Cow's picture

It's all "priced in" so don't worry.

Move on.