BLS Discloses It Has Overrepresented Payroll Data By 824,000 Or 15%
A part of today's BLS announcement that has not received much attention is the BLS' own disclosure that it "may" have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in LTM period ended March 2009, in addition to the already disclosed 4.8 million job losses. From the BLS:
In accordance with usual practice, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is announcing its preliminary estimates of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 5, 2010, with the publication of the January 2010 Employment Situation news release.
Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus two-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2009 total nonfarm employment of 824,000 (0.6 percent).Table B shows the March 2009 preliminary benchmark revisions by major industry sector. As is typically the case, many of the individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the total nonfarm series, primarily because statistical sampling error is greater at more detailed levels than at a total level.
All this simply means is that once the full extent of the collapsing employment picture is revealed on February 5 next year, the market will explode to record highs: after all the worse the economic news are, the better for the stock market. With Obama and the Chairman's "Moral Hazard National Doctrine," all unprecedented bad news mean is that ever more and more and more dollars will be burned at the altar of major insider selling and financial company/REIT follow on offerings, courtesy of the US government inflated stock market bubble.
(2 votes)
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:28
#86593
I like how all the revisions have a ' - ' in front of it.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:20
#86767
... except for "Government". That made me laugh even more.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:33
#86600
So when this is officially revised in February, will it rocket the unemployment rate?
Maybe they'll say the vast majority of those people have fallen out of the labor pool, therefore the rate is not affected.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:15
#86949
It might not affect U-4, but it will the other(s).
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:34
#86605
This whole market is merely a mirage, everything about it is stamped by GoldenMan Sacks.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:35
#86611
If two negatives make a positive
what is the effect of twelve?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:36
#86612
Tyler, I am sensing a new level of cynicism. And I am enjoying it!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:38
#86615
We are all Moral Hazard National Doctrinists now.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:27
#86889
I can hear Kudlow, Beaker or Liesman now..."Moral Hazard Nazis"
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:53
#86986
"We are the Moral Hazard Preservation Society.
God save Jamie Dimon, Moriarty and Dracula.
We are the desperate Cramer appreciation society.
God save CNBC, vaudeville and variety.
Preserving the old ways, so we can be abused.
Protecting the oligarchy, so they can rape me and you.
What more can we do?
We are the Goldman Sucks condemnation affiliate.
God save Maria B., her D cups but not her virginity.
We are the Dennis Kneale Schadenfreude society.
God save Larry Kudlow and all the cocaine awarded him.
Preserving the old ways, so we can be abused.
Protecting the oligarchy, so they can rape me and you.
What more can we do?"
The Kinks...
The Village Green Preservation Society.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 17:55
#87143
are these really lyrics from the kinks?
wherever they come from they are great....
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 22:49
#87413
No the song was written in the 60s. It is the Kink's framework... I took liberties.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 22:53
#87416
Here is the original for those who don't remember or know the melody...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32LZJeLuKtE
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:40
#86617
I believe that SPY at 102.81 (as of 12:39) is a potential critical level to figure out whether the gang is planning a big leg up or willing to let the market fall more.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:40
#86619
You would think that MSM would raise hell about the monthly revision of data(always upward for unemployment,and downward for cpi). But of course that dosn't happen. But we also must sympathize with the fact that they are all parts of publicly traded companies. And hard facts driving their shares down,may end the carriers of some of the most wonderful journalistts,who works for the new Pravdas of the capital system.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:40
#86912
We have ZH, so who needs the so called 'msm' anyway? In addition, Denninger has been all over this on his blog since early this morning
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1485-September-Unemployment-ACTUAL-LOSS-995k.html
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:44
#86622
CNBC is in shock, all the analysts, the charts, the fundies and attention to details yet Obama fails in the olympic games. oh well
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:44
#86624
This is typical of manipulated economic numbers. Make them look better when every job lost is looked at critically. Later, when the panic has passed and the recovery has begun, reveal the "error" as old news and no longer relevant.
I suspect the second dip of this depression will not allow it to be swept under the rug. Yes, I know they have reasons for the error in the numbers. They ALWAYS have reasons to explain what they do. This is all part of the con.
You don't think they'll just come right out and tell us they play with the numbers for political purposes, do you? The best cons always have plausible deniability built in.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:03
#86659
Which means that the numbers are irrelevant and not tradeable information and never have been and the insiders know it.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:29
#86896
+ 10000000000000
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:20
#86685
of course it was deliherate fraud...
john williams tells of some interesting
stories back during daddy bushfraud's re-election
campaign where campaign officials told ibm
to massively inflate sales numbers so that
gdp would show a rise...i am sure other
companies did likewise....
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:00
#86933
...what a beautiful example of cognitive dissonance!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:47
#86627
Nine to twelve months after the fact the change to official unemployment will be nil. Most of these folks will already be past regular unemployment claims and into extended benefits so they won't count.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:15
#86678
BINGO
In the medical community I think they refer to it as a by-pass operation...
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:14
#86759
LOL
The ultimate by-pass alright. It seems to me that with the Fed making money on demand with little more than a key stroke, they don't need no stinking consumers, unemployed or otherwise.
At least until either the entire house of cards falls apart or every worker bee is happily back to work. I'll takes odds on the former.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:08
#86859
After a while, the public gets used to these kind of shenanigans and starts looking somewhere else. It won't be long before another entity, private or public, takes over from government to publish numbers that are accurate or at least not politically biased.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:28
#86893
numbers, we don't need no stinking numbers.
sheeet, we got a video camera and uboob:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s9O5zO8hZk
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:41
#87211
LOL
Great video link. I loved the part about plenty of sand for his mutt to sheeet.
on Sun, 10/04/2009 - 20:50
#88495
One already has, it is called Shadowstatistics
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:49
#87227
Sure they will be.....they'll be dead or eaten as solet green
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:48
#86630
Rounding error. These folks have no clue what the 'real' number is. I would suggest that the error rate is +/- 20%. It is curious that all these six month old benchmark revisions are negative..
Look at the brightside. The adjusted job losses will be headlines when the press wakes up. This will cause a stir on the Sunday talk shows, The President will speak in a grave voice that the Government is doing everything that it can. Shortly thereafter the newly re-appointed Bernanke will say that the Fed will chip in and expand the QE Treasury coupon buys by another $500b. The next day the FHA will announce a new program. 110% mortgages for anyone with a credit card.
This is all going to work out fine. Not to worry.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:07
#86666
+1
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:36
#86709
Ha ha ha...
"The adjusted job losses will be headlines when the press wakes up."
Good one!
Sometimes I think that Roche has the entire nation hooked up to a Rohypnol drip.
Or was it a suppository...
I can't remember anymore... when I wake up though my an&s is bleeding.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:17
#86762
Wasn't Marla talking about Thorazine suppositories yesterday?
Hey, if you're gonna take it up the rear end, it might as well be painless.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 17:14
#87094
It's never painless for a cat...
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:44
#87216
You look familiar. Have I seen you somewhere?
Are you one of them there celebrity cats? :>))
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:48
#86921
I was thinking this would be the perfect moment for Obama to announce a 2nd stimulus package.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 17:57
#87147
this would be a perfect time for obama to
announce his resignation and pound his ass
with a carton of suppositories....
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:50
#86633
of course "they lie."
between the birth/death model, changing the formula to derive the number, to not counting the forlorn one has to even question why sensible people even concern themselves with the number.
unemployment is high and going higher. btw, what's the driver of the economy for the future?
meanwhile, my heart goes out for all the unemployed whose dreams have been shattered with outsourcing and offshoring.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:50
#86634
I highlighted that too
Just imagine all the market cap we added on "better than expected" unemployment. LOL.
I wonder if this is the birth death model being rescinded - i.e. all these construction jobs in companies too small to measure they have been adding
p.s. real unemployment as measured pre 1990s forward adjustments is now 14%ish... i.e. if we measured as we did in the Carter Reagan years.
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/true-september-unemployment-in-a...
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:53
#87233
Why don't they just 'say' we just gained 2 million jobs in Oct and please go about your business. Same fucking thing
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:51
#86637
"All this simply means is that once the full extent of the collapsing employment picture is revealed on February 5 next year, the market will explode to record highs:"
The new stock market
good news is good
and bad news means more stimulus
boo yah
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:54
#86640
What do you do once you are ineligible for unemployment? a) crime b) starve c) gamble off grandmas 401ks, then starve
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:08
#86669
It's called hooking....
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:53
#86642
It's all "priced in" so it doesn't matter.
Move on.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:18
#86681
also its a lagging indicator don't forget
I suppose it will be a lagging indicator until the masses are huddled with pitchforks at tha gates of the estates of the CEOs
then less of a lagging indicator
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:55
#86643
I heard a new meme on CNBC this morning:
People that have been fired and are jobless are NOT "unemployed".
They are "workers on the sidelines". They are just waiting for the job market to improve.
Let that one sink in for a minute.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:05
#86662
wow, people are equated to "money on the sidelines", by cnbc's account there is a lot of "money on the sidelines".
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:12
#86675
uhm, well.... YES. Yes, we are "building employment capacity!" How green shooty is THAT?
Obviously, in a CNBCish sort of way, we can deduce that when we eventually arrive at a point where we need human labor again, it will be available, thereby increasing the speed of TEH RECOVOREE!!!!!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:55
#86648
It's all "priced in" so don't worry.
Move on.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:55
#86649
CNBC is using the Olympic news to mask all the bad news..I guess we cant wait for the next Olympics full of steroid induced athletes because right now this world obvious has an issue with moral hazards and cheaters get rewarded while people who obey by the rules get slaughtered.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:06
#86665
Exactly. Fuck the Olympics. Who gives a shit about these stupid games when OUR ENTIRE ECONOMIC SURVIVAL IS AT STAKE?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:09
#86671
might be the best comment of the week gg.
i'll make it at my age. i'm concerned for my kids.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:18
#86680
word.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:18
#86682
Technically....with Chicago losing the bid, that should be bad news on top of a lot of bad news....anyhow I agree F the Olympics, its basically Wall Street for Athletes.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:13
#86871
Olympics committee is one big corrupt snake pit.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:26
#87192
If Chicago wants to host something interesting, I would much rather watch politicians, hedge fund managers, former and current treasury secretarys, past and present members of the Federal Reserve Board, a few bankster CEOs, etc... feed to the lions at Soldier Field. If we are going down like Rome, lets bring back some of the final days fun.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 21:07
#87356
hear hear!
and don't forget that many of them like
bernquacke would make excellent human torches...
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:28
#86697
Add the NFL Stupid Bowl to that. Down here in South Florida we're gonna get nailed with that mess again this year - well Jan/Feb 2010. Didn't we just have it a few years ago? I wish I could send it to Chicago.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:41
#86913
"Panem et circenses."
Bread and circuses. Distractions. BAU is a potent narcotic.
cougar
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:58
#86654
When there are ZERO jobs left they will parrot the great numbers that show no jobs lost.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 11:58
#86656
Really folks - can we trust ANY data that the government provides? For anybody with a functioning brain the answer HAS TO BE NO. How about the data that the Fed provides? Are you sure the Fed created as many dollars as it said it did? How can we be sure some of them were not wired to secret bank accounts of whichever politicians (including Fuhrer...er..."President" Obama) that needed to be bought? We CAN'T.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:24
#86693
and for those who would like a set of numbers
which i believe are sound, go to shadowstats.com....
just one more reason to use bernquacke as a human
torch....
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:37
#86971
Conciously we can't believe a damn thing they provide. Subconciously however we still have some degree of doubt...
It's what stops us from putting everything we own into PM's.
My guess is since the Fed can also print it's own bearer bonds they probably just loan multiple bonds with only one serial number to friends for use as collateral. Keep one in reserve at GS just in case someone wants to see it.
Nah... just kidding.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:24
#86692
My father worked as an Economist for NBER and other related agencies. He was one of the most highly funded non-medical researchers in the US. I can tell you that he was very frustrated with the role of the Government in his research. The game is that if you do not toe the party line then you do not get funded.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:12
#86866
Is your last name Stadler by any chance?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 20:17
#87316
Good one.
Project X redux.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:29
#86700
Goldman Sucks says: All your revisions are belong to us!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:34
#86705
1 million more green shoots
thats the # of Americans who filed for bankruptcy
now they dont have to pay their old bills and can consume from scratch
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aCE00r4wATqU
Boo yah
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:02
#86849
I just hope they maxed out their credit cards before they filed.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:52
#86924
I'm pretty sure that the 2005 bankruptcy reform still held people obligated for paying off at least some of their debt...
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:36
#86710
Either they lost them or maybe the "add ins" were never really there courtesy of the Birth Death Model?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:51
#86729
I'm so pessimistic that I don't believe that the con-job numbers even matter anymore. Your average American is far too ignorant/stupid/busy to figure out why it matters.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:05
#86854
Yeah, except perhaps a few day-traders still trading on the rigged stock exchange.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 12:51
#86731
No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up. -- Lily Tomlin
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:05
#86746
who woulda thunk
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2009/0812.html
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:11
#86753
One thing I remember about the formal definition of a depression is 10% unemployment. Could they be fudging down for the simple reason that they are trying not to let the unemployment numbers cross this threshold. In other words, anything to avoid admitting that, at least on paper, that THIS IS A DEPRESSION?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:10
#86863
Wait till you see the Gold market where they pull out all stops to keep the price below $1000, even if it's at $999.99, as if that is going to change the reality that the USD is, in fact, just toilet-paper.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:18
#86879
Wasn't that a 10% drop in GDP over a certain period of time? Not that GDP hasn't been fudged in any way (imagining 1000 monkeys madly tapping away at pocket calculators)
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:32
#86900
Good catch, you were kind about that, thanks. Employment ain't the deal. Seems it was as low as 3.2 to 8.7 percent in 1930, 15.9 in 1931, 23.6 percent in 1932. You can see the rest here.
http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:46
#86918
No problem. Wether based on GDP or not, 9.8% unemployment seems like a depression anyway.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:13
#86756
This is good news and I'm sick of you malcontents trying to spin it otherwise. Unemployment has historically gone down after it has gone up so this is a positive. Losing the Olympics is a plus too. Obama didn’t really want it. He was just using reverse psychology. It would have been a drag on the economy. In other news, massive amounts of debt are green shoots. We’re giving away free lithium too. Please contact our rep at ACORN for your sample.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:04
#86852
Don't forget the Thorazine suppositories. Pardon my in your end do.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:31
#86781
Can I get a "foreign" sample too? aren't they Honduran ? This board is a hoot today . enjoying it very much !!!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:53
#86829
Got word from my Greek friends that if Chicago is selected, Greece would not give them the sacred flame from Olympia.
NOBama.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 13:54
#86830
WE HAVE 30 MILLION UNEMPLOYED TODAY, BERNEKE SAID YESTERDAY IT WILL CONTINUE FOR A YEAR OR MORE AND NOW WITH THESE LIES ADMITTED
WE WILL PROBABLY BE AT 60 MILLION UNEMPLOYED BY THE END OF THE WINTER
AND HEY FORGET THAT AND THE WAR
HOW BOUT THAT COMMIE HEALTHCARE BILL AND THE OLYMPICS--
THIS IS WHAT WE GET FOR PUTTING A BEGINNER IN CHARGE OF DEPRESSION II.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 19:14
#87257
By "beginner" are you referring to Geithner, or Summers, or Diana Farrell, or Laura Tyson, or Richard Holbrooke (now wait a minute, he's got all that experience from AIG), or Robert Hormats, or Henry Kissinger, or Gary Locke, or Gensler, or Tara O'Toole, or....?
After all, these people are ALL experienced Wall Street lobbyists or biopharmaceutical lobbyists!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 14:03
#86851
Mainstream media reporting on Birth/Death model adjustment!!! This headline from google finance. Top headline from Bloomberg quoting D. Rosenberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXoQJ14iSlWg
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 16:12
#87023
They got broken models to go along with the underlying broken "huge interest to banks is an economy model."
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 15:37
#86973
"Zero Hedge doesn't exist. Zero Hedge is a product of my imagination." That's what the OBRAVDA Networks idiots are going to be saying every morning while holding hands, in the near future.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 16:42
#87051
That would be the "million jobs" Obama has saved? Maybe saved for later? To come back?
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 17:21
#87103
Zombie economy. Cake or Death?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNjcuZ-LiSY
Cyanide shots all around!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 18:42
#87214
This happened in April for March?!!!! This is evidence for a class action suit. Sick of these felons and hope they get caught. Where is our deep throat. Come forward BLS
on Sat, 10/03/2009 - 00:51
#87468
Yes, we can eat cake.
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