The BLS: A History Of (Downward) Revisions, Or How The Department Of Truth Goosed Markets With Half A Million Fake Jobs In Two Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Zero Hedge has previously demonstrated the improbable, for lack of a better word, upward bias in revising initial jobless claims applications. Today, we look at an even greater statistical problem at the BLS: that of Non-Farm Payrolls. Courtesy of today's full year revision announced by the BLS, and a granular sort by John Poehling, we have discovered that while revisions added a whopping 55k jobs in the years 2006-2008, NFPs have now been revised to remove 538k jobs in the 2009-2010 period. In other words, based on data revisions, under President Obama, America has suddenly created over half a million jobs less (even if all of them are part time) simply due to statistical adjustments. We won't even go into analyzing just how much worse the S&P would be trading if all those monthly "upside" NFP reports had reflected true and not completely fudged numbers. At an average 22.4K downward monthly revision for every single monthly NFP report in the past two years, we are 100% confident that not even Iosif Shalom Bernanke would be able to offset the market plunge that would ensue each and every of the past 24 months... if fundamentals were ever to be remotely meaningful again, of course.

h/t John Poehling

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digalert's picture

Maybe Steve Liarman from CNBS can explain this for me.

impending doom's picture

True story: actual email sent to Steve Truthman and his (or at least his admin's)subsequent reply:

Hi Steve,
I just saw your comedy routine on the NBC nightly news and now that I've stopped laughing, I just wanted to say thanks for being a complete and total douchebag sellout.

Lotsa love and happy holidays,

Try it, it's fun.

treasurefish's picture

You're right!  That was fun.  I just modified the script for my own needs with the Subject: "You're a Tool!"

Hi Steve,
I am copying the following text from another "fan!"  I TOTALLY AGREE!!!!  You are such a talking head.  I bet the Bernank has you on his Christmas bonus list:

I just saw your comedy routine on the NBC nightly news and now that I've stopped laughing, I just wanted to say thanks for being a complete and total douchebag sellout.   



Wynn's picture

Don't forget Mark Zandi - he has bet his professional integrity on a 250 - 300K print for February (barring any blizzards).

(I think he checked the Accuweather forecast beforehand) 

glenlloyd's picture

I have never liked him...he's a weenie.

Michael's picture

That explains the shellacking the democrats and incumbents got last November.

Michael's picture

This is President Obama's play book on government statistic lies. When will his regime get blowback like this? 

Crisis in Hungary as politician tells the truth: "We lied!"

"Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany admitted in a Socialist parliamentary group meeting on May 26 that the government had done nothing during the preceding four years.

According to a tape recorded secretly after the spring elections and leaked out on the website of Hungarian public radio on Sunday, Gyurcsany said, "We lied during the last one-and-a-half or two years. It was obvious that whatever we said was untrue."

The PM said, "We have not taken any important government measures that we can be proud of apart from bringing back power from the deep s..t," Gyurcsany said, referring to the electoral victory of the Socialist-liberal coalition."

"Protests on Kossuth Square started on Sept. 17, 2006 when a recording was leaked revealing Socialist Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany admitting that the government lied about the economy before its re-election in April.

The protesters had vowed to stay until Gyurcsany was dismissed, but police pushed them off the square after they refused to submit to security checks. But authorities did not dismantle the dozens of tents set up by the protesters, and they were expected to allow the demonstrators to return after Monday's commemoration.

State news agency MTI reported that police beat some of the protesters — including women and elderly people — with rubber batons, and some had head injuries.

President Laszlo Solyom pleaded Sunday for national unity, trying to keep the bitter political divisions from spilling over into the celebrations."

"Appearing live on local television channel ATV on Sunday evening, Mr Gyurcsany accepted the recording as legitimate, but said the lies he referred to in May were about politicians convincing Hungarians they could live comfortably without paying the cost of doing so.

"For years ... we made people believe that they have nothing to do, that we will give them happiness as a gift," he said. "We have to stop the deluge of lies which have covered the country for many years."

In the past several weeks, he has also admitted that, to have a better chance to win last April's elections, the Government covered up the real size of the state budget deficit and passed a law introducing tax cuts now described by the Prime Minister as a mistake."


vinoverde's picture

watching Hilda Solis on CNBC a few months ago, truly disturbed me. It was clear shewas a true believer. Whatever happened in the labor market, it must reflect the wise and beneficial policies of the Great Leader, BHO. She was a mind lost to the State, unreachable, Stalinist in a way far more gone than the standard slant. I realized then, I could not trust anything from the BLS.

Michael's picture

Don’t be standing around Cowboys Stadium with all that ice and snow on the roof. When all that snow and ice comes sliding off, it will put you in the hospital or kill you.
It’s a laugh riot watching the CNN news anchors, especially the women anchors, trying to laugh off the weather news in Dallas.
They act like it’s a joke or something. The joke is on them and the cognitive dissonance they are experiencing, due to their impenetrable belief system in man-made global warming they have been pushing their entire carriers, is on display in living color. They are giggling so hard, they're almost starting to cry.

Quixotic_Not's picture

Maybe Steve Liarman from CNBS can explain this for me.

Truth is treason in an empire of lies...

I was so stupid not to go to Perp school and then Ivy League racketeer training - I had no idea you got a license to steal with those diplomas!

Yen Cross's picture

Ya gotta love the inverted head and shoulders pattern

Whizbang's picture

Employment data doesn't fall under the auspices of technical analysis.

Yen Cross's picture

Oh Wait I see a neckline, right around next weeks NFP numbers.

djsmps's picture

I saw Steve Liarman and his cronies at 7 am, just checking the futures. They were all coming up with excuses in advance for the possibility that the number would be bad. I think they all mentioned weather, and Liarman asked, "If the BLS numbers are bad, do we even believe them?"

km4's picture

David Stockman on todays jobs report 

Video - CNBC
starts at 3:00

  • more spin control on jobs from WH ever
  • lost 6.6 Million jobs since 'great recession'
  • great American jobs machine is broken
  • Fed QE policy is a joke
  • we're issuing 3x more bonds than our GDP is growing ( stupid to buy a 100yr bond )
  • we're heading into a wall


Tyler Durden's picture

Stockman is the inspiration behind the above-noted chart which shows that all of the gains (if one may call them such), are part-time in nature:

Also Stockman is wrong on the debt/GDP ratio. He is using Rosie's analysis for a growing (7.4%) economy. Since we are "growing" at half the rate (3.4%), we are at a 6x debt/GDP ratio. The number is getting ever higher.

Rosie Highlights The Biggest Problem With Last Week's GDP Miss

DavidPierre's picture

Next time you see a bullish economic report from the Government, remember that they are usually fabricated from estimates, incomplete data and outright data manipulation. Yes, Bernanke is either completely stoned or a calculated liar. And, yes, the farce continues.

Bernanke Either Is Smoking Some Strong Weed Or Is A Malicious Liar


lynnybee's picture

.....he's a liar.   remember, Dr. Faber even called him a liar right on t.v.    here's another person calling him a liar ; unfortunately only the educated people realize what's going on; the average American Citizen is ill-informed :

Yen Cross's picture

Chopp seuiex. Pun intended.

unununium's picture

It's a little hard to get excited about the distance between the pink and blue lines on that chart.  Maybe a cumulative chart would be more convincing. 

ebworthen's picture



This is the big, BIG picture story, take a look:

Especially figures 3 and 4

A house of cards!  All completely dependent upon petroleum.


francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

I'm not sure I see your seems that graph #3 has stabilized since 2000.  Although.....if we believe in the whole "in a long enough timeline" thingie.....eventually we'll have zero farms but they'll be very large producers of that not efficient enough for you?

Graph#4 is even better.....because it makes almost no sense to me for a farmer who is good at producing corn to be wasting time producing wheat......we are borg and we tolerate no waste.

sgt_doom's picture

Thanks for pointing that out, plus that GDP growth derives a great deal from the QEI & II debt increase.

traderjoe's picture

How many times does the CNBC anchor have to make fun of how 'gloomy' Stockman is? It's his weak attempt at subliminally discrediting Stockman. Why does anyone that has a contrary opinion have to be considered a gloom-and-doomer? Of course, we know the reason...

Rainman's picture

The fun will continue until someone at Comcast says : YOUR RATINGS ARE SHIT, YOUR RATINGS ARE SHIT !!

mynhair's picture

Don't rain on that moron's parade earlier that thinks CNBS is a different network.

Give a retard a break...

LibertyIn2010's picture






Temporalist's picture

Darn shared this finally below didn't see this...

rosiescenario's picture

I still say this job counting is a red herring...what really counts is the amount of income add 100 minimum wage jobs and lose 50 $80K ones...and gee your job count went up 100% but the actual income being earned went down...this crap about counting jobs has got to is just another delusional stat from our government and everyone appears to buy into it.

Logans_Run's picture

My roommate was making close to $200K as a sales rep. He now can't even find a friggin retail job at $9/hour.

trav7777's picture

is he still payin his share of the rent tho

umop episdn's picture

BLS = revised lies, widely despised.

Rainman's picture

This is irrefutable evidence why it is important that all numbers be sanitized prior to distribution so as not to befuddle the markets and the masses with what is deemed to be irrelevant detail. Data management is, of course, included within the emergency powers function. Carry on. 

Boilermaker's picture

Yea, well, it worked didn't it?  You know, there is a neverending supply of shit eating morons out there that will eat the propoganda off of a spoon.  They don't want to hear the truth and, as such, aren't told the truth.

I would guess that 90% or more of the general adult aged citizenry wouldn't even be able to tell you what the UE rate is, what QE is, what the FED is, or what common equity is.  They know what they are told.

It's sad.  It sucks.  It's frustrating.  But, propoganda generally works and the government knows it.

Rainman's picture

.....last night Mrs. Rainman asked me who Tim Geithner was. Sigh.

Boilermaker's picture

Yea, well Mrs. Boilermaker continues to ask "why do they do that when it's not fair"...Thank god I have been on tap at the Boiler home.

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Women have the faintest sense of survival.

MsCreant's picture

What do you mean by that? I'm not being sarcastic, I don't understand.

Cheesy Bastard's picture

Hi Ms.  I hope I'm not stepping on toes replying to a question in a thread I was not a part of.  IMHO Here is the crux:  Women are absolutely the best survivors out there.  Don't believe me?  Get between a woman or virtually any female mammal and her little one.  Nails, claws, teeth, etc.  What these men are referring to, is long term planning given the possibility of economic/political/social collapse. Women look at you like you are crazy.  My wife tells me that all the food I store will be thrown out by the kids after I die.  I tell her I hope she is right.  She says I dont need the firepower.  I tell her I hope I never do.  The only way to explain it is, to me it it like an insurance policy.  Even If never used, the peace of mind provided is worth the time, effort and money; to me anyway. 

Fernley Girl's picture

My husband wanted a new 4WD pickup.  I wanted food, guns, ammo and PM's.  Wanna guess what's in the garage?

Cheesy Bastard's picture

I am generalizing.  Having said that, I think I love you.  It's real this time.  No really.  (For good measure, if my wife ever sees this I will add /sarc)

Rusty Shorts's picture

She's mine damn-it, I loved her first.

randocalrissian's picture

Be careful, if you ask her to get a divorce, she's going to shoot you.

RockyRacoon's picture

Can a coon get in on this love-fest?  I'll love any woman who likes the "basics" of life -- really, I mean LIFE.  Without the items she listed there might not be much of that remaining.

Henry Chinaski's picture

My woman is totally on board with self reliance and survival, but doesn't want to think about the worst case scenario.  It's a bit contradictory.  She sort of tolerates the food, guns, ammo, and PM's.  She thinks it is overkill but appreciates it nonetheless.

Rusty Shorts's picture

Hi Fernley Girl, did I mention that I'm in love with you?