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The BLS: A History Of (Downward) Revisions, Or How The Department Of Truth Goosed Markets With Half A Million Fake Jobs In Two Years
Zero Hedge has previously demonstrated the improbable, for lack of a better word, upward bias in revising initial jobless claims applications. Today, we look at an even greater statistical problem at the BLS: that of Non-Farm Payrolls. Courtesy of today's full year revision announced by the BLS, and a granular sort by John Poehling, we have discovered that while revisions added a whopping 55k jobs in the years 2006-2008, NFPs have now been revised to remove 538k jobs in the 2009-2010 period. In other words, based on data revisions, under President Obama, America has suddenly created over half a million jobs less (even if all of them are part time) simply due to statistical adjustments. We won't even go into analyzing just how much worse the S&P would be trading if all those monthly "upside" NFP reports had reflected true and not completely fudged numbers. At an average 22.4K downward monthly revision for every single monthly NFP report in the past two years, we are 100% confident that not even Iosif Shalom Bernanke would be able to offset the market plunge that would ensue each and every of the past 24 months... if fundamentals were ever to be remotely meaningful again, of course.
h/t John Poehling
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"As I lay me down to sleep,
Iran to develop nukes, I peep.
May they reach DC, I say.
A better world therefrom may...."
Who is Tyler?
The Mossad/CIA/IRS wants to know...
Everyday the same bullshit on zerohedge.
The Dow is at 12,000. BGU around $80.
You have missed it all crybabies waiting for the end that never comes..
Put away this fucked up web site and fucked up lies of tptb.
Hug your kids, kiss your wife, go for a work out...
So, long NFLX is your idea of heaven? Got a sell point, or are you colorblind, too?
Yep... the same bullshit...
truth = bullshit
But I am sure Nikki is not a paid stooge.
Given what I've learned here, I find myself hugging my wife and kids even more! After all, after the Great Implosion, I might not be able to. The HFT robots can have the stock market, and the scalps of everyone foolish to trade with them!
Obviously the US needs to start cutting the budget.
And since so much of the budget apparently is sacrosanct and therefore off limits, then I nominate the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) for the chopping block.
It should be apparent to all that the BLS is trying to make points with the administration by lieing its head off and dispensing the party line.
What value is that to us?
If we can't bring down any heavyweights ...then at least let's set our sights on some small fry to appease ourselves.
End the BLS!
(hey ... we can start small and work our way up).
I'm sorry essence, I'm afraid we can't do that.
Cutting the budget is sooo easy:
EPA - gone
FDA - gone (what have they prevented?)
NIH - gone (whatever the fuk it is)
Sinate - gone (full of Libs)
FCC - gone (out of earphones)
SEC - gone (tranny porn outlawed)
BIA - gone ( no Indians left)
.....
Dept of Useless Depts - gone (not in touch)
Can we keep the DOCP - ( Department of Corned Pork )?
Keep Pelousy? Are you frigging nuts?
Wouldn't she be more Pork Jerky?
No, it really has to go!
No, no, you don't understand.
What you say makes perfect sense, however, it is 180 degrees in opposition to the PERCEPTION REALITY of the apparatchiks.
The apparatchiks control all the money, with the complicity of the corporate/judiciary(legislative) hegemony.
Therefore, asaid mentioned agencies will be at the TOP of the priorty list; just like the gold, silver, lead, and aristocracy of the evacuation of the Titanic.
Let's summon 1/4 of the gray matter:
1. Is it more beneficial to go on unemployment and food stamps than to work part time (or Full time) in Ameriika?
Check!
2. You can only collect unemployment and CHIP and Medicare if when you lose your job, and then cash out your IRA and 401 to pay down the mortgage or medical bills or help your kids?
Check!
3. If you are a bill paying, hard working, honest middle class Amerikan who has payed into the system for 30+ years and you have an I.Q. above 75 it is obvious you are being bent over the biggest log by the biggest dicked bunch of bang-gang assholes ever?
Check!
4. Getting a "job" that doesn't pay well above median wage would simply return you to the pool of clueless suckers that just had their arses gang-raped by the biggest bunch of gutless leeches seen on Wall Street and Washington since 1929?
Check!
Solution:
Ditch the system, the lies, the fiat, the ponzi, and milk what is left of the sick cow or expatriate.
Check!
To do otherwise would simply feed the disease and make you a bigger fool than you were yesterday.
Check!
(Check Please)
#1, if you expect your life expectancy to fall below norms....
more coke, please!
- hey, chop me out a rake handle.
Yeah, I will provide my own rolled up hundred. Fiat worth something.
Double rake, couple of fiat 20's, some Grateful Dead, Stones, or Elvis Costello on the Polk's...
Life expectancy?
Shit.
If I can buy a mobile home and go from state to state hitting up emergency rooms what the hell does life expectancy mean?
You are working under the "I own my home and pay my bills" paradigm.
I don't know. Perhaps you are living under the "live for the day I don't give a fuck" paradigm and are dealing and snorting your pay and profits and don't expect to live or leave anything beyond 50 years or $50K?
What has been made crystal clear in the last ten years is that if you live under the broken "responsible citizen" paradigm and are not in the upper 2%-5% of society you and your progeny will get SCREWED by the elites and the entitlement and illegal classes.
If you haven't figured that out try being a responsible citizen on median wage.
Don't forget that the original 2009 numbers were revised downward by 691,000. Now add in the latest downward revision of an additional 323,000 and bingo, there we are with net revisions over 1,000,000 from the original reported number of 4.1 million jobs lost in 2009. I'm sure the BLS looks at that as only being off by 20%; all good, right? Sounds so much better than being off by 1 million or so. Gives everyone a huge amount of confidence in the BLS models. So each month's numbers are off by either 20% or 85,000. Take your pick. After today's report, that sounds just about right.
can we get this discussion back toward the point? First, let's assume Obama has zero clue about economics. Second, lets assume his economic advisors at the time needed their credibility. That would be Larry, Christine et al. Do we have a motive? If so. who, with a few phone calls, discretely had the equations tweaked over at BLS?
Demican, Republicrat, it doesn't matter.
The trick is to fool the true believers on both sides.
What (Whom) do you have left? The 5% who know which side the bread is buttered on.
Ooops.
Politics is the distraction.
Profit is the target.
Profit devoid of politics, morality, ethics, law, and NEARLY, religion (or lack thereof).
End game = majority of population robbed, ruled, raided, and generally bewildered or left to die believing in phantom evils that sit at their deathbed as family and friends.
Any chance of you Palin haters coming up with cogent responses as to why The Squirrel deserves 4 more years? Or are your brain cells overtaxed just by breathing...
Why squirrel?
They actually plan for the future. They are conservative. Just like beavers. ;)
The Squirrel has 2 books, he can't read and so are written by others, for the DNC to buy.
I'd call him a nutmeg, but that's insulting nutmegs.
Didn't Ayers kind of admit he wrote that fantasy?
Didn't the SSN match up with CT?
Kookaburra sits in the old gum tree
Merry, merry king of the bush is he
Laugh, Kookaburra! Laugh, Kookaburra!
Gay your life must be
Kookaburra sits in the old gum tree
Eating all the gum drops he can see
Stop, Kookaburra! Stop, Kookaburra!
Leave some there for me
Kookaburra sits in the old gum tree
Counting all the monkeys he can see
Stop, Kookaburra! Stop, Kookaburra!
That's not a monkey, that's me!
No Demican or Republicrat deserves any years because both sides pander to the bankers and cronyism.
Politics is the distraction.
And how has DeMint sold out? Or does your ass normally blow smoke?
Ryan/Palin 2012.
Kristi Noem for Czarina of Hawtness.
If there is no difference between the parties then we could, at least, demand they be good to look at.
I'm tired of blue lipped Kenyan dolly boys and botoxed zombies.
Exactly, at least let me get a smidgen of a hard-on when I am forced to watch the "news".
They all (99%) have sold out; that is why they are politicians.
I am incredulous over the fact that people still believe what politicians say. If any of you think that Palin won't just follow the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama "leadership and planning" model you are smoking some nasty crack.
*newsflash* The politicians do not set policy.
As the saying goes... "There ya' go."
(you are spot on)
If the only alternative is Palin ... I rest my case.
HEY! Can anyone find a better theme song than this? Im listening...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rp6-wG5LLqE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM7LR46zrQU
Only Libs fuk rabbits.
C'mon man!
We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgment of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
Change it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fall that's all
But the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!
I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do ya?
There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
Love it...
The Who
Ted Nugent
Love it...!
...and the man in the suit has just bought a new car with the profit he made off your jeans.
...if you had just a minute to breathe, would you ask for something like a second chance?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVlbgqmxXNY&feature=related
You want old school?
Cat Scratch Fever
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCJux_7W2i8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulFYyTt-bjQ
SIRENIA - The Path To Decay
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouZQ7rgAq-I
'The times, they are a changin" worked up a storm in the 60's.
The department of truth is working time and a half, these days. Check this bullshit out:
NEW YORK – The computer network that runs the Nasdaq Stock Market has been penetrated by hackers multiple times during the past year, according to a newspaper report.
The Wall Street Journal reported on its website late Friday that federal investigators are trying to identify the perpetrators and their motive.
People familiar with the investigation say the exchange's trading platform, the system which executes trades, was not compromised, according to the report.
A person involved in the Nasdaq investigation told the newspaper that so far the perpetrators "appear to have just been looking around."
Nasdaq officials declined to comment.
So, now a convenient scapegoat is at hand justifying the next flash crash! Or am I just too cynical for my own good?
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Double Cross
BRADLEY model suggests turning point coming...17th FEB
As many have pointed out, BLS stats are as much fairy tale as fact, but in this instance, the workforce generally includes people who are actively looking for work. Discouraged workers, while included under BLS U-6 figures, are not usually included in the headline numbers.
And once again the BLS is proving that the political approval of the numbers before each release is designed for political purposes not economic purposes. This should call into doubt every statistical release from the government but only places like ZH, etc. dare to do that because that means you're not part of the "team." When foreigners finally figure out that every report is suspect, there won't be a door wide enough for them to depart through.
Well thought out alternate numbers can be found regularly here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
and no you do not have to subscribe to see the major stuff (inflation, GDP, unemployment)
I went to the st. louis fed alfred database to see the full report and can't seem to find it..I searched the database for "feb 2011 revisions to non-farm payrolls" and no documents found..any chance you can post the link?..thanx
If the stockmarket goes up, people need fewer jobs due to the wealth effect. I like to look at the B(l)S report as bootstrapping prosperity.
liberals seem like parasites. Beck has saved america. In BECK we trust!
Troll much?
Just remove the L from BLS and you have a perfectly accurate report and agency.
how do I attach a picture to my comment
Not disagreeing with the premise of the story, but the question is why bother with jobless claims at all?
We all know they can be cooked and manipulated to the nth degree. And the numbers being cooked are tied to the behavior of people who have lost their jobs. Do we know for sure all run down and file immediately? Do they wait a week or two? Just how affected are they by the weather? Do they look first and file second?
Instead, I think the focus should be on total private sector employment. Year over year that number has been rising since August 2010, and continues to climb with 1.237 million more working in Jan 2011 than in Jan 2010.
The initial claims number only focuses on 1 thing. If three people were hired for every one initial claim filed, initial claims does not care.
Wall Street is not interested in jobs or employment. It is only interested in Wall Street. Whether 5 people or 50 million are out of work is of no concern to them and does not figure into the calculus of profit. QE does. And if TPTB, who keep changing the reasons for QE as it suits (haven't you noticed) want to offer the rationale that "it's about creating jobs," so much the better if it keeps the printing machines running.
That is what is going on.
had plenty of spare time . So just rechecked the fibonacci targets ....::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/