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BMO Has A Simple Message To Its Clients: Go To Cash Now

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a surprising development, the most bearish, and easily most comprehensive, report that we have read in a long time on the broader markets, comes from Canada of all places, via BMO's Quant/Tech desk. The report's title is simple enough: Go To Cash - In Plain English. Not much clarification needed. Here is the gist: "We advocate switching out of equity positions and going to cash. The European sovereign debt crisis appears to be nowhere near over. The global credit environment is worsening. Cost of capital is going up and availability is going down. There are large gaps between where the credit market prices risk and where the equity market is priced. Equity is lagging the deterioration in credit conditions. Moves in currency, equity and commodity markets are mirroring the moves in the credit market. Global growth, in a credit-constrained environment, will slow. Profits will be squeezed by the higher cost of capital...We advocate a zero weight toward equity, and that investors convert their equity positions to cash."

Full report below, and here is a link to the original report with far more technical data.

 

Go To Cash

 

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Tue, 06/08/2010 - 09:49 | 401419 Heavy
Heavy's picture

In Plain English: Fucked

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:15 | 402278 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I believe that's actually Anglo-Saxon.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 19:06 | 402607 Heavy
Heavy's picture

Thank you for the correction, my ignorance is lessened.

Should have known the problem was broader than I thought.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:41 | 402846 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Pretty bad when a decent fella can't even get away with a simple expletive isn't it?

You did your best!

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 00:18 | 403056 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Actually the etymology of "fuck" is in question - no definitive explanation of where it comes from and if the OED can't trace its origin ....

The Oxford English Dictionary states that the ultimate etymology is uncertain, but that the word is "probably cognate" with a number of native Germanic words with meanings involving striking, rubbing, and having sex.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 00:34 | 403078 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Those Germans are a caution, aren't they ? Do everything the hard way; "striking, rubbing and having sex"; too complicated.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 13:33 | 403666 Heavy
Heavy's picture

Learning is fun.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 09:58 | 401424 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I see it as the WORLDS GVT's, and Banking systems have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this issue, and VIOLA!.

Nothing is WORKING............bottom line, they are clueless on what to do,and are not willing to face the GP, with the measures it WILL take to rebuild it.

This is what you get when you Globalize everything, and everyone.........there is no FALLBACK position.

Shit is on the menu, and we all are going to eat it.

Public hangings will be in order shortly.

 

 

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 09:53 | 401425 Muir
Muir's picture

But, but didn't we have a guest poster recently that advocated averaging down on RIG?!

 

45.15 -4.02‎ (-8.18%‎)  Jun 8 9:51am ET

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:11 | 401459 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Maybe something to look at after the new bottom.  Way down there somewhere.  

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:28 | 401799 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

RIG is trading .7X book and GS just put out a sell on it today knocking it down 10%.  Would never average down on this situation but am thinking about buying some RIG.  If Obummer tries to come down hard on them, they can just take their rigs elsewhere.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:34 | 401808 Muir
Muir's picture
44.62 -4.55‎ (-9.25%‎)  Jun 8 12:26pm ET  

 

 

how's averaging down and bying the dip working out?

(I for one am glad that shorting is considered an anti-American specualtor tool for the financial parasites by Cramer et al at CNBC)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:16 | 401468 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I can't wait until everything is crashing again.  I miss the constant adrenaline rush.

Maybe if we burn FRN at the altar of a local ATM then it will come quicker.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:35 | 401498 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Or just burn the ATM.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:58 | 401961 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Dude, who keeps junking you today? Not OK.

As a side note, it is actually a good practice to burn some FRNs every now and then, just to remind yourself how worthless they are.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:33 | 402055 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Isn't there a law preventing the intentional defacement or destruction of FRNs?

Of course, what you do in the privacy of your own bedroom is your business. :>)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:19 | 402289 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Mr. Doo, or may I call you Steaming?  I think Johnny Bravo is trolling the post to junk all those who jumped in his face last time.  It is a petty thing, to be sure.

New rule:  You can junk only after you post!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:37 | 402352 akak
akak's picture

Yeah, I have been getting junked in pretty much every post as well.

I have little doubt it is the Master Bater, puerile and cowardly troll that he is.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 17:00 | 402409 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I have little doubt it is the Master Bater, puerile and cowardly troll that he is.

You are being too kind.  If he could post something new (or convincing) I would tolerate his drivel.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:36 | 402749 dumpster
dumpster's picture

master bates ..could post his resume'// that would get  things really moving .

he could highlight his time as pizza driver.. asst asst mgr , at the local movie house ,, taking tickets selling pop corn and drinks ,

or a copy of his grades and classes taken , 

underwater basket weaving , how to apply for a job.

the guy has nothing ,, he spends time trying to play a part and the idea he has made big dough in the markets ..part time .. is silly on the face.   my humble opinion

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:12 | 402795 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bravo / Bates posts his resume, would get junked 20 x a lot faster than my post the other day over at the Peace Flotilla thread!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:43 | 402847 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

He seems to be a bit scarce now that gold has had a slight bump.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 13:37 | 403677 Heavy
Heavy's picture

Hey, I drove pizzas!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:24 | 402728 dumpster
dumpster's picture

sure from time to time .. use a hand full of $100  dollar bills .

you may want to light a cigar,, make you  much happier as those 100's go up in flames  

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 04:41 | 403327 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

let's not jump the gun yet... those $100s still buy a little bit of gold :^)

patience folks - all in good time.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:55 | 402109 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

burn ghost money, or "hell bank notes". . .

Regardless of the presentation, Hell Bank Notes are also known for their large denominations, ranging from $10,000, $100,000, $1,000,000 or even $500,000,000. In Singapore, it is extremely common to find 10 billion dollar banknotes in shops. . . On the back of each bill, it features a portrait of the bank of Hell.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Bank_Notes

 

love the imagery of atm's with little clay dishes of sand, burnin' those hell notes!

(p.s. +1 unjunk to chumba, yer fan club is busy today!)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:17 | 401469 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

How long until Calpers comes in asking for another trillion dollars?  That pension fund must be near busted with the recent collapsing of this ponzi market. I smell big time California problems rearing their ugly heads, well beyond of what we already know.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:48 | 401530 centerline
centerline's picture

frankly, I don't know what is really holding up Kali, Floriduh, ILLinois, etc. That shoe is gonna fall eventually. My guess is Q3 or Q4 this year.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:06 | 401573 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

We've still got QE v2.0 and then QE 2011 Edition.  They'll keep this bitch boiling until the meat just falls off the bones.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:10 | 401587 Mako
Mako's picture

Additional sticksaves will have to be bigger and bigger and the positive effective of the sticksaves will get smaller and smaller with smaller time frames. 

Eventually the sticksaves will not work at all... see Europe as an example.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:12 | 401996 centerline
centerline's picture

Not saying that there is some sort of line in the sand where things "suddenly" fall off a cliff. Rather we are going to be throwing crap overboard at an accelerating pace here soon enough. Super-duper QE, QE redux, extra-special QE, etc. can only go so far in some areas to provide balance between ultimate Fed goals, public outrage, potential for currency crisis, etc. Chainsaw juggling. Pull up a seat - it's going to be a hell of show. Bring towels, it's going to get ugly.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:39 | 403013 reading
reading's picture

Frankly, I think they'll all be so busy blaming each other for the problems as no one will want to own it...that's where things will get interesting.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:25 | 401902 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Jon Stewart just jumped the shark. Too bad many Americans consider him the real news. Stomping all over Helen Thomas is not funny.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-june-7-2010/thank-you--south-carol...

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:45 | 402082 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Regardless of WHO Jumper all over Helen, she's WAY past the point where she should have been Retired, long ago.

She's a virulent Anti Semite, and a racist/bigot...and has been speaking this kind of shit for years.Just so happened she got nailed with a Flip Cam,(by an offended race) and presto.............popped off once to many, to the wrong dude.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:30 | 402331 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

She didn't mention race. She didn't mention religion.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:28 | 404624 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Technically, you are correct.  She just said that all the Jews should up and move back to where they were so warmly welcomed back in 1942.

 

Also, technically, you're being obtuse. 

 

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:59 | 402776 JR
JR's picture

Jon Stewart (born Jonathan Stuart Leibowitz[6]; November 28, 1962[6]) is an American political satirist, writer, television host, actor, media critic and stand-up comedian. He is best known as host of The Daily Show, a satirical news program that airs on Comedy Central… He is the co-author of America (The Book): A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction, which was one of the best-selling books in the US in 2004 (borderline pornography). Jon Stewart was born in New York City to a Jewish family. He and his older brother, Larry (who is presently COO of NYSE [13][14]), grew up in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, where they attended Lawrence High School.[6]  -- Wikipedia

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 22:25 | 402900 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

Chumba I'm going to speculate a robot is junking all your posts 24x7x365

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:41 | 403016 reading
reading's picture

It's an algo...

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:33 | 401916 Neo-zero
Neo-zero's picture

Going into long term debt to pay short-term operating expenses is fiscally unsound. Going into debt for 20 years for 3 months operating expenses is beyond the absurd. Nonetheless, that is exactly what Arizona did.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

 

How this makes any sort of sense is beyond me but I'll bet lots of FRN's just dropped from Ben's helicopter this won't be the last time we see something like this.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 17:24 | 402455 All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

They are going to fire 1,000,000 teachers....

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:29 | 402995 Janice
Janice's picture

Leave FLoriduh alone.  You may need our beaches to collect oil.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 01:29 | 403142 merehuman
merehuman's picture

soon they will all be islands and tip over?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:22 | 401627 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

Speaking of CalPers, Leo posted this.

Watch quick before it's removed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_LfrThHV_Q&feature=player_embedded

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:25 | 401789 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

F**king Brilliant.

"Now I'll have to collect recyclables."

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:45 | 402083 merehuman
merehuman's picture

got past the first 2 parts of The century of the self. The bernay character was worse than hitler. He just kills more slowly.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:54 | 402771 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Pretty amazing stuff century of self, isn't it?

How old is your grandchild? We need a close up of a smiling baby face as an avatar to lighten things up around here. How about doing it merehuman? For us kids. :>)

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 02:05 | 403190 merehuman
merehuman's picture

CognitiveDissonance, your name is a great choice as i see it reflected daily. Akin to living in the twilight zone. Occasionally i ask "Do you still take paper money" and thank them for their folly. There are a few i have made uncomfortable .I am true to my promise to inform all i meet of the condition our condition is in. tactfully most of the time.

I dont get to see him close up. His name is sebastian and i have not meet him nor seen my son in many years. The woman wanted a child, but not the fella. She did inform me and i refused to believe her. After 2 years i lost my place on the menu due to injury and have rarely seen them since. My son thought i was dead and she allowed him to believe that. Now he is pissed as he has found out i am alive. Lol , good lord its a strange life.

I dont posess the computer savvy yet. never done a paste or copy and have a whole lot to learn. But the garden, fighting the good fight with the slugs is more important. i  will try.  2 years 6 months.  

 

Thats how i learned when changing diapers when its your own kid the shit aint so bad ! Lol.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 16:10 | 404243 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Godspeed, mh.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:53 | 402769 dryam
dryam's picture

+100

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:18 | 401470 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Which branch of the Bank of Montreal would they like me to pay my cash into?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:19 | 401477 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Go to.....cash?

What is cash?

Cash is trash.

Go to money, sure.

Gold is money.

Go to gold!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:48 | 401529 breezer1
breezer1's picture

gold and silver.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:07 | 401581 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

And tampons.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:14 | 401770 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

BITCHES!!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:23 | 401482 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Holy crap look at the market convulse...V-Tac!!!! get the crash cart ready!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:23 | 401484 yabs
yabs's picture

I cannot wait

bring it on only then  will keynesianism be shown for the croc of shit it is

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:35 | 403005 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Me too. Going long oil when this market falls apart (BP, XOM and RIG will be extremely attractive). Hey, I just may listen to Leo and buy solars too - after the devestation

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:24 | 401486 Mako
Mako's picture

schoolsout

You cajun?  From La.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:37 | 403011 Janice
Janice's picture

Nah, he's from SC

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:33 | 401493 bob resurrected
bob resurrected's picture

The root of the problem is the fact that Europe's banks desperately need American dollars. It's a dependency that traces back to the early 2000s, when, in the pursuit of big profits, European banks threw caution to the winds in greatly increasing their holdings of dollar-denominated assets. The total value of those investments went from $10 trillion in 2000 to $34 trillion by the end of 2007.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/02/hold_your_schadenfreude

I wonder what it is now?

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:48 | 401505 Mako
Mako's picture

Bingo.  However it hasn't been since 2000 it's been since 1945. 

Something happened in 2008, US consumers stopped requesting new credit from the US commercial banks.   Suffocation comes to mind.  Europe will be far from the last to fall.

UPDATE:

You can mark my postings has junk, there are no financial islands, well maybe North Korea.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:03 | 401567 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

I enjoy reading brain Mako, keep it up brother...

 

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:11 | 401591 Mako
Mako's picture

thank you man... i figured there might be one person not throwing tomatoes at me.  :)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:49 | 402095 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Mako , shooting the messenger does not help, but they cant help themselves. it would be good if we junked and stated at same time ..why.

Hey, junkers, make your case. lets hear your side!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:24 | 402311 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

See my new ZH rule above:  No junks until after you post!  Fat lot o' good that'll do.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:17 | 402806 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, keep up your interesting posts Mako.

That goes for you too, merehuman!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:45 | 403021 reading
reading's picture

Everyone gets junked so much now it's like a badge of honor.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:35 | 404641 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Mako, please post one positive statement or recommended act on the coming storm (other than "prepare to swallow") a year?   That would be awesome...

 

I'm not saying you're wrong about anything ...but you make John Derbyshire look like Liza Minnelli when her Oxycotin dealer shows up at the door, and that's saying something.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:21 | 401897 The Merchant of...
The Merchant of Venice's picture

"Something happened in 2008, US consumers stopped requesting new credit from the US commercial banks."

Why would they?  The One was on his way to paying their mortgage, their car payment, and their utilities bill.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:38 | 401927 Neo-zero
Neo-zero's picture

If they are throwing tomatoes now they will only regret it more later.  Not only will they be wrong in their "this is America it can never happen here" mindset and when the really hard times come they'll be wishing they had even those tomatoes to eat.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:38 | 402056 Mako
Mako's picture

Well, I all I can say is this is how it always works.   I am not right, history has shown time and time again why the Math ends up failing.  History is right, not Me. 

Humans have choice, but they keep choosing the same thing expecting a different result... the results will continue to be the same no matter how they repackage the lies.

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 15:05 | 402127 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Mako , its time for me to reup my CCB lic. this month. If i dont then i am out of business. It s a hard choice as i know i can pick up work and remain legal since many compatriots have folded. But if the government fails , what does it mean for me to be legal? Its all pointless as no one is building or buying houses now and every year  i work i go deeper in debt to the IRS. Again pointless to give part of my sweat to others so they can fuck me with inflation and non representation. Its more like a mafia system.

I am out! While typing this my decision finalized. After 30+ years in business  , no appointments, no more falls of scaffolding, yeah!!!

I look forward to panning for gold in my most excellent state of Oregon.

Mold country. You can smell the earth and its good! beats hell out sniffing the Gulf.

Oh , Beware the slugs will eat your garden crops. Beer has been working real well, but they have killed the early potatoes, radishes and carrots. Replanting today. Just saying so you all dont think its too easy to feed yourselves. We have only gotten one sunny day in ten and thats hurting growth also

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:15 | 402283 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

congrats on moving away from the suffocating system, closer to reality!

the lack of sunlight is definitely taking a toll on the gardens, another system coming in tonight apparently. . . try copper barriers around your garden - depending on your layout, foil might work if it's a raised bed, or a circle of pennies, or copper pipe (maybe a find through your builder's network?) - the trick is to keep it polished, so as to shock the little buggers!

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 20:58 | 402775 Kali
Kali's picture

Broken egg shell and sand barriers work too.  Surprised about your radishes, with 21 straight days of rain, mine are busting at the seams and HUGE!  All my hot weather stuff is suffering from lack of sun though.  Berries are having another blockbuster year, TONS of bloobs and rasps.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:32 | 402339 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

My tomatoes are doing great, as is the corn.  The squash is just now running.  I found a new variety (for me) of tomato -- African Togo.  Very prolific and neat looking.  The green onions will be delish!

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 00:44 | 403088 Woosirsir
Woosirsir's picture

Agree

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:56 | 402110 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Mako,

Yeah, "Something happened in 2008, US consumers stopped requesting new credit from the US commercial banks."

It's called an Election, and BHO's FAR left agenda to empty ALL our bank accounts,bring parity to us equal to Mexico, and kill the economy.

People are not, have not purchased like they would, if they had a CLUE how HIS F*%^&$% up fascist policies will hit them......

Fear of the unknown will close many a wallet...............sure did mine.

The details of his Health Scam, are just beginning to ooze out.........

He is basically  nationalizing everything he's bailed out..........why would anyone want to HELP him do us in?.

Except for the Uber Left he has surrounded himself with,his ratings are like a turd swirling in a toilet bowl, and he continues to PARTY down weekly in the Peoples House, while 30+million are out of a job.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:24 | 402820 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I don't know anyone who is:

-- borrowing money (far any reason)

-- starting a business

Hope and Change.

I am spending less too!  I will soon sell stocks that have long term cap gains.  Next year I will start selling my losers to offset income.  Hey, I'm just doing my bit to save my butt and bring 'er down.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:25 | 402824 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Further comment, it sure does seem like Obama partying very much like French Royalty right before their Revolution over there...

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 04:50 | 403331 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

+1000 - very odd, that behavior.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:00 | 401561 Mako
Mako's picture

It's the same thing that happened in the 30s, UK peaked, reserve currency of the world.  Rest of the world suffocated, collapse eventually liquidation.  

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:58 | 402113 DosZap
DosZap's picture

And we know what itook to get us out of that cycle............WWII.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 22:41 | 402924 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

I think the Suez canal/Nasser debacle had a little to do with Britain’s down fall as well.  Hastened it at the very least

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 02:09 | 403194 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

yes and if you  owned gold in Germany you made a fortune and if you owned gold in the US you also made a fortune

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:33 | 401495 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

O/T, the vix is down???  What???  Todays market is manic already! 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:35 | 401500 Cursive
Cursive's picture

"Go to Cash - In Plain English"

This is good advice and I whole-heartedly recommend it.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:38 | 401504 MonetizeMe
MonetizeMe's picture

I can't help it. Why Canada, "of all places"?

Because Canada wisely protected its national interest keeping its banking system "boring", the way a sensible banking system should be?

And this, "of all places" is where insightful analysis should come from? The nerve of those backwater hicks!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:41 | 401509 Mako
Mako's picture

Canada will be imploding with the rest. 

Eventually there will be no musical chairs left and everyone will be just standing there looking at each other.  Of course the system will have to go into liquidation mode.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:18 | 401614 MonetizeMe
MonetizeMe's picture

Unlike the 'barbarous relic' (which Canada can easily mine for anyway), and the barbarous fiat relic ($USD) energy is the true currency of the world, enabling all economic activity. There are an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels of (currently) economically-recoverable oil in Alberta. That's 51,000 barrels of oil per person.

Whether they're priced in $, EUR, Roubles, Yuan or monopoly money really makes no difference.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:08 | 401749 Mako
Mako's picture

Plenty of oil and energy in the 30s, no demand as the credit system collapsed.

Plenty of land, farm equipment and labor... but no demand for food even though people were going hungry

In Europe, they went even a step further... they farmed and dumped food in the sea to get prices to go up, at the same time people were onshore going hungry.

Once the credit system really starts to get busy collapsing, you will see all the ones sucking on the global credit system go starving just like Europe is doing. 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:19 | 402021 centerline
centerline's picture

+1, has nothing to do with resources when credit collapses. Flawed system = inevitable fail, despite the "real" wealth (resources). It is a collapse in velocity of money on a debt-saturated system.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 15:10 | 402139 MonetizeMe
MonetizeMe's picture

The collapse that will happen is probably not going to be worse than what happened throughout eastern europe in the 1990's. Probably the most dramatic collapse happened in the once-prosperous Yugoslavia that descended into outright warfare. Doctors that made the equivalent of 2000 DM a month saw their salaries drop to basically nothing in the ensuing collapse and hyper-inflation.

But, the areas not directly affected by war did not encounter mass starvation or mad max style anarchy.

Now, nearly 20 years later, Serbia still has rich agricultural land and a strategic position on the danube and the sava. Croatia's hundreds of miles of pristine mediterranean coastline remain. And life goes on. Normalcy is slowing returning to the area.

If the balkans can survive the collapse and subsequent war of the 90s, I can't imagine how euroland and the US will fare worse. Centuries of history suggest otherwise.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 18:40 | 404655 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Aren't all comparisons to previous depressions moot?  When has the entire world's economy rested on all-fiat currencies?  And then collapsed? 

This is a science experiment that has never been conducted. 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:09 | 401759 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

For now mining and resources account for about 5% of GDP and banks are about 21% so if we think all those financials will go down we will have speed up digging and polluting don't you think so? What is the cost of doing it?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:21 | 402986 msjimmied
msjimmied's picture

Looked at Canada's RE bubble lately? Yes, it's happening.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:39 | 403014 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Agree. The real estate market in Calgary is showing signs of extreme stress. Listings way up, sales way down, and price reductions being emailed to me every 2nd day. This is very odd for a spring market. Canadian personal debt levels are much worse than our southern neighbours. We will not be spared.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:13 | 401596 billwilson
billwilson's picture

A gree Canada is in better shape BUT just because you are sober in a car driven by a drunk does not make you safe.

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 04:54 | 403332 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

that isn't just a Canada idea either... ice on the roads and fog ahead...

+100

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:18 | 401611 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

"Because Canada wisely protected its national interest keeping its banking system "boring", the way a sensible banking system should be?"

Never heard that government bought 75 billion of mortgages from banks? Multiply that by 10 (to compare with US) and you have 0.75 trillion of support for infallible Canadian banks.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:24 | 401637 MonetizeMe
MonetizeMe's picture

Not to mention exorbitant fees and horrible customer service . I never said I liked the Canadian banks, but they are generally stingy, conservative and old-school and this is far preferable from a financial system run by a bunch neo-aristocratic* dick-wavers.

* I don't know what this word means but it sounded nice in my head at least

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:16 | 401775 TheGoat
TheGoat's picture

You can count on Chinas southern state, Australia will be in on the collapse.

In last 3 weeks in Melbourne house auctions have stalled buyers have run away. Housing here is 500k and average income 60k a year, yeah no bubble here says the RBA. LOL

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/us-hedge-funds-dump-australian-bank-shares/story-e6frg8zx-1225875702144

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:01 | 402957 abalone
abalone's picture

So true, everyone is a developer these days (STCA)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:38 | 401508 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Buy land in insane places. You will have somewhere to run, cultivate and safety. You will offcourse need a bear trap and a giant canon for bigfoot.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:53 | 401546 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

and i hear lightly peppered bigfoot lightly browned on a spit is devine.

makes good jerky too.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:11 | 401589 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

You have that exactly backwards from Bigfoot's perspective.

"Mmmmm, tastes like chicken!"

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:02 | 401742 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

yeah, i imagine so.  but bigfoot were to devour me he would certainly meet his sad and untimely demise by one form of food poisoning or another...

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:01 | 401563 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I was all excited about my little island with plenty of sea food, but BP might have fucked ta plan all up for me.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:38 | 401510 MisesFTW
MisesFTW's picture

So are Chavs the British version of white trash?

That Amanda Drury, blonde hair dark eye make up, reminds me of high school.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:42 | 401511 MisesFTW
MisesFTW's picture

So trying to refresh the page is re submitting my post oops

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:42 | 401515 MisesFTW
MisesFTW's picture

Triple post, wtf

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:46 | 401525 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

And the hits keep on coming. All we need is for grandma Jones to tell us she sold all her stocks and is 100% cash right now. :)

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:50 | 401538 centerline
centerline's picture

Ignorance is bliss.  How I wish to be hit on the head.  I am sure my wife will volunteer.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:30 | 401648 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

As a babyboomer I will certainly support economy with my spending after your pension reform proposals are implemented. I will have big bundle of money and borrowing power (like the rest of Babyboomers) to buy houses for last few years left in my life and by all those crappy things from Dollar stores and Walmart!!!! I'm really happy and looking with optimism into the future.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:58 | 401729 Gestalt
Gestalt's picture

In the world we live in, pessimism is just realism in fast forward.

This piece acknowledges that, as credit outstanding currently swamps the economy, we must look to the credit markets, not the economy, for signs of stress. The economy is now a lagging indicator, predicated on how easy people and businesses can access credit. Spreads narrowed dramatically from March '09 through March '10, but are deteriorating again, with the epicenter now Europe, with Asia now feeling the pain as well. 

 

This is a very well constructed piece, with a great deal of compelling evidence. The lagging economic indicators, like jobs and small business sentiment, are irrelevant. Credit is the only thing that matters, and credit is signaling that risk currently outweighs reward.

 

How are those Chinese solar stocks holding up?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:27 | 401794 akak
akak's picture

This photo is not soft porn!

Must be an imposter Leo posting.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 14:44 | 402080 Apocalypse Now
Wed, 06/09/2010 - 06:09 | 403363 bada boom
bada boom's picture

I am tired of this bullshit analogy. 

If you are drinking from the glass, it is half empty.

If you are filling the the glass, it is half full.

I can't tell you the full financial picture about a company from its balance sheet alone, I need to see the income statement and cash flow statement.

 

 

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 12:17 | 403434 bada boom
bada boom's picture

And by the way, the realist would say that glass looks 50% filled with water and 50% filled with air.  If only we started teaching our kids to think this way.  I cannot judge whether its half empty or half full.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:51 | 401542 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Actually, its time to go to the REAL cash i.e. Gold.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:58 | 401557 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

GG,

Gold hitting new all time highs in USD today and we still see the same worn out cliches and arguments from the gold bears. I have given up trying to help them. I ignore all their mindless blather completely now. A total waste of time. Best wishes....

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:06 | 401576 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

It was/is PERFECTLY PREDICTABLE (if you REALLY know what's happening i.e.), yet many will claim they were/are "surprised" by it.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:15 | 401604 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

When you spend your entire existence studying lines on a chart then you naturally start to see things linearly.  That's the problem with these TA Jockeys.  They think the lines have a pure logic all their own and will never let them down.

You know who also thinks the lines they observe will never let them down?  Cocaine users.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:35 | 401671 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Maybe (I've never been convinced about it) those trend lines had some meaning in the past but now with all those big guys playing government tune how you can even think about looking at them, there is no sense at all.

All ZH-er complain about government playing markets and still trying to find something meaningful in those beautiful graphs.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:00 | 401733 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Long-term analysis with TA makes sense as the manipulation can be teased out of the dataview, and it is still useful for short-term (like intraday) tracking but in general I agree.  TA does not take into account the massive fraud and fixing of the markets that is now taking place on a daily basis.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:01 | 401739 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I understand your point.

But if I were the Fed or Treasury and I was trying to move markets in more subtle ways, I would make sure I influence them in ways that would confirm TA, thus I could get the TA herd to jump in or bail out at certain times and magnify the effects.

If I were trying to move the markets and I was the Fed and Treasury.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 12:29 | 401792 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

You are right and they are doing it but in this market, thanks to them, you would have to change code every day to account for their own actions. It's so distorted that there are not able, even with the best programmers to do it anymore. Analysis of action and reaction takes time and at the time they arrive at some conclusions everything changes! Meanwhile they have to react to whatever happens, relying on old premises, and making bigger mess. I think they're slowly falling behind and getting out of sinc. 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 13:15 | 401879 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"....you would have to change code every day...."

Good point.

Silly me, I was thinking only of humans. You know, those biological machines that can quickly alter their own programing and adapt to new situations on the fly? :>) 

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 05:05 | 403339 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

nothing silly about it...

they 'confirm' the patterns to hook you in, then break it out to soak you...

i completely agree with your thesis that it's the players being played.

it was a hard but worthwhile lesson learning that limit-buys and stop-losses are the market-maker's way of seeing our cards.

no graphs for barter/physical possession

Wed, 06/09/2010 - 04:58 | 403336 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

GG, i think the term in vogue is 'unexpected'

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:07 | 401580 centerline
centerline's picture

Got nothing quanitative to back up my opinion - just a gut feeling that the gold trade is really crowded right now. I might kick myself later, but I sincerely think there will be a better entry into most PM's coming soon enough. Holding for right now.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:13 | 401598 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

The REAL "crowded" trade is the dollar. Just think about it: practically the whole world is holding dollars - how many are holding Gold?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 16:20 | 402298 AVP
AVP's picture

+1......I've given up on trying to educate my family and friends on gold!

My broker said this and my broker said that. Their broker is only going to make them BROKE!

They need not knock on my door later; go see your broker....door slams!

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 17:59 | 402514 akak
akak's picture

"They need not knock on my door later; go see your broker....door slams!"

No need to be so harsh!

I plan on handing such people a nice collection of major US financial stock certificates --- Lehman and AIG are my current favorites --- along with a small bundle of $10,000 bills (soon at a bank near you!) that may be enough for them to buy a roll of toilet paper or two.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:34 | 402838 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I know only 2 others who have physical non-jewelry gold.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:44 | 402850 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Well, now you know Three!

 

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:14 | 402973 msjimmied
msjimmied's picture

Ah..don't junk the 24k jewelry gold holders. There's a lot of old world hoarders in that realm. The beauty of it is, it's not taxable when you sell. It's jewelry, not coins. Big difference. I'll keep that extra 28%, thank you. Buy the 1/4 or 1/2 or the one ounce bangles. Go to the Vietnamese, Chinese or Indian jeweler and then sell it back to them. Get the plain jane vanilla variety.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 23:06 | 402961 abalone
abalone's picture

The crowded trade is credit...debt in USD's. When the margin calls gather steam so shall the scramble to cash begin.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:16 | 401608 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Your problem is that you're looking at it as if it's a "trade".

It's not.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:30 | 401650 centerline
centerline's picture

Not really. Poor choice of words on my part. Just gambling I get a better entry so I get more of the shiny stuff.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:42 | 401694 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Well, you're right.  There will be ups and downs, and the swings will get larger as time goes on.  It may be at $1,500 and go down to $1,250 intraday before recovering.  But I wouldn't wait.  Buy on the dips and do so often, as often as you can.  Supply of the real stuff is running out.

Don't be Tim LaHaye'd.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:05 | 402783 dumpster
dumpster's picture

my 80 year old mother in law,, went into cash several years  ago..at $320  gold ,,

she lives two blocks from the coin shop .

she is a happy camper.   even bought a little GG stock at 7 bucks ,, now 45  .. she smiles all the time

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 21:37 | 402841 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

If you do not have ANY, I would get started right away.  Meaning now!

I have bought gold in small quantities for decades now.  US Eagles, 1oz.

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:54 | 401551 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Give me the keys Lisa, I'll drive.....

In the meand time - WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday he is hopeful the economy will gain traction and not fall back into a "double dip" recession.

"My best guess is we will have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific," Bernanke said

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 22:03 | 402871 milbank
milbank's picture

If you want to see some of his past "best guesses" watch this short video. . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

He is as psychotic/clueless as his predecessor.

 

 

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:58 | 401556 bull-market_3.0
bull-market_3.0's picture

Man I'm really confused. I understand the "go to cash" argument, but what if you have gold equities? Will they drop as well? With gold reaching new highs, will Gold equities drop as well?

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:03 | 401566 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Dude the hard stuff in hand is much better than seeing it on paper (in every sense on my comment).

Tue, 06/08/2010 - 11:11 | 401590 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Only holding the real metal counts at this point...equities will VASTLY underperform the metal (if they are not obliterated along with the stock market i.e.).

ONLY HOLD THE METAL.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!