Bob (Janjuah) Is Back... And He Is Pissed

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
convexity's picture

Was wondering what happened to Bob, after Kit Jukes got the axe, he went radio silent.  Nice to have a cup of "Bob's World" pessimism with my morning coffee again. 

sickboy's picture

NO, the REALLY funny part of all this, is that he works for a bank that because of its own excesses, a reckless foray into structured products, seeking short term gains, stupid mergers, lousy risk systems and retarded management, is now holding the UK government and tax-payer hostage!!!

Am I the only one who thinks his protestations of PolicyMakers(PMs) and fiscal/QE not slightly, but hugely ironical???

He is and has been their chief credit strategist for long enough to have seen the mess coming. .

The UK has to borrow and issue more crappy Gilts because of the likes of RBS. Now the worlds biggest bail-out, will likely only be able to pay Bob his Xmas bonus because of the tax-payer.

whydtinogo's picture

Following on from the "strong" GDP figure, the PMs will only be encouraged to throw more and more money at the problem. My gut feeling is that Obama has a tendency to throw money at all problems and as long as his advisors are the yes men of Summers and Geitner (neither of whom have worked in the real, real world) thats whats he's going to do, oblivious to the fact that his actions are simply going to crowd out any real private sector economic expansion. Earlier this year I argued with my European colleagues that this administartion is going to be one term and Obama will screw it up just as Carter did. Its hard to believe that Bernanke will be removing any liquidity early - this is the guy that believed sub prime was contained and was a small percentage of the mortgage market - any early warnings signs of inflation will be explaned away as one off changes, externalities, specific to one sector etc. When the rate hike come there gonna have to be fast and furious, and at a time when the real economy is struggling off its back. 

Anonymous's picture

Not sure where the 1100-1120 figure came from. I recall Bob saying that if the S&P went over 1022 for 4 consecutive days he was going to go hide in a cave.

Bizarro

Anonymous's picture

I follow him closely. From his Sept 1 release:

"Anyway, let me say 1st up that even though its all been pretty marginal, the RISK here is that over the next month or so we see risk assets go even better. This is a TACTICAL call and is NOT a change in the 3/6mth secular call, which REMAINS BEARISH. Andy Chaytor set some levels last week which I am comfortable with - there is a 60/40 chance that S&P trades up to 1120ish by end Sept/early Oct. I think the next month will be volatile and NOT straight line, but on balance the risk is that by month end/early Oct, risk assets will be better. "

Anonymous's picture

If ya don't remember, don't comment. He said it in his ealier release.

Losing your memory is even more bizarro.

Anonymous's picture

The bear has come out of hybernation just in time for nuclear winter.

jiniwaq's picture

This is a good article custom software development thanks for sharing this informative information..Business gifts I will visit your blog regularly for some latest post.Tanzania Safari

Daedal's picture

"They did a wonderful job of averting financial/economic hell. Great Job. But now they are seemingly reverting to type."

 Change "averting" to "postponing".

 

faustian bargain's picture

+1

need to find a good word for 'postponing AND worsening'...

Anonymous's picture

Great perspective.

SDRII's picture

Just wondering how PM got it correct after Lehman?

cougar_w's picture

After hearing Art Cashin worrying that there was "something strange" about the market in Sept., Bob's analysis sounds creepy. Reading between the lines, I heard him saying that while there are ways out of this mess -- and they are obvious ways out -- they are not going to be considered. My own feeling is that we've been on the short-term-gains rollercoaster for better than 15 years (maybe 30) and there is nobody left a the helm who can remember any other way. Well other than Volcker himself, twisting a paperclip apart where he's sitting along with the rest of us in the 4th row of the peanut gallery.

There is no way out that isn't painful. We screwed it up, now we pay. We can pay now, or we can pay later. The longer we put it off the more it will cost, is the general feeling. Only a bubble-head would imagine that the cost will actually be reduced by delay, thinking that the cost can be funded by another asset bubble. Round-n-round it goes.

Bob is correct in measuring the temperature of the private sector (PS). People were burned on politics a decade ago, and this has only made it worse. The idea that the government is now firmly in the pocket of the financial sector will take a generation to dilute; 20-30 years. Jobless recovery is assumed as a result, and everyone is circling their wagons. The Federal government will be almost entirely marginalized, and the ongoing destruction through starvation of state and local government will hamstring effective crisis management. It will then fall to neighborhood and community leaders to pull people forward and keep them on the task of sustaining civilized behavior. I don't see how this can be a happy outcome, but perhaps I am too pessimistic regarding human nature.

Bob's timeline is chilling. I had come up with approximately the same without the benefit of his reasoning, perhaps because I'm integrating a lot of input. Of course, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I hope I am wrong, but I fear that we're going to run out of runway in March, one year from the last time we ran out, having only managed a 12 month bounce from the tarmac on a machine with no wings.

cougar

 

Anonymous's picture

"It will then fall to neighborhood and community leaders to pull people forward and keep them on the task of sustaining civilized behavior. I don't see how this can be a happy outcome, but perhaps I am too pessimistic regarding human nature."

That would be best possible scenario. We had a more civilized nation when the federal government was less comprehensive.

Anonymous's picture

Pardon my ignorance, who is Kevin?

Anonymous's picture

Oh I see his September 1st call was that risk assets could be higher. Good call (not!).

Here's the comment I was recalling from his 31st July ramblings:

I fully expect S&P to move up to 1000/1050, but holding above 1022 for 4 consecutive days, as opposed to a single day spike up to 1050, will tell me a lot. If what I fear (as opposed to what I hope) plays out then I will have to concede that the lunatics that ran the asylum pretty much into the ground, culminating in the events of Q4 last yr, are back in control. Sadly, if this is indeed what plays out, then when the public sector balance sheet bubble bursts, maybe in a year, but almost certainly within 24mths, I will hopefully be far far away from the madness.

Bizarro

basehitz's picture

Let's recap:

First you seem to be questioning whether he really made the Sept call.

Then when another poster gives you the reference.

You then revert to an superseded call and maintain the argument.

More importantly, Bob's reasoning is logical (to everyone except CNBC) and independently verifiable.  

Anonymous's picture

A little terminology help needed. OW? +VE? Thanks

Anonymous's picture

overweight(OW), positive(+VE)

Revilot's picture

help a newbie out here: overweight the dollar/pound.... what does that mean? I'm aware that both central banks have been inflating the money supply through QE, which would lead me to expect inflation will ravage both economies sooner rather than later. But how does this fit with overweighting?

Park city skier's picture

Sell the rally is the new buy the dip.

Anonymous's picture

Bob has it dead on IMHO. His assessment of potential outcomes is pretty much what Roubini predicted last December when we started down this path. The exit strategy as we dicuss it over here. Obama and his group do not have an exit strategy. They just intend to keep printing money until we improve or implode, and I think everyone here knows where that will take us.

Anonymous's picture

He sounds dumber everyday

rr_'s picture

Why is he so focussed on the US and US PS,PM,and FS?

time123's picture

Yes! Volcker won, Greenspan lost when it comes to who was right.

But the issue is that it does not appear people are paying enough attention to what Volcker says right now. And he has a lot of good things to say. So they are bound to pay a big price in terms of long term sustainability of the economic recovery.

time123

admin: http://invetrics.com

Docinthedark's picture

Love Bob's world; thanks Tyler

Bloody_Hell's picture

 

Has Mr. Janjuah resolved the art of economics to a science. Aviating & the economy.

As I see it airspeed is decaying, configuration creating massive drag, & attitude is steep. This condition develops into a stall unless airspeed is increased, drag reduced &/or attitude corrected. A stall is a high rate of sink. Millions of variables reduced to simplicity. Bob Hoover could make a high speed approach to a runway in a twin, kill both engines & feather props then initiate a loop at 10 feet above the tarmac, roll over the loop pouring iced tea & make a controlled dead-stick approach to land gracefully bringing the airplane to a stop event free & step out of the plane to take a bow. In place of Bob we have Larry, Tim & Ben at the stick.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZBcapxGHjE

 

aus_punter's picture

HASN'T ANYONE WORKED OUT THAT HE READS PRECHTER, CHANGES A FEW WORDS, THROWS IN THE ODD S&P TARGET AND HOPES FOR THE BEST ?

FROM 2003 TILL 07 HE WAS DEAD WRONG. EVENTUALLY HE HAD TO BE SOMEWHAT RIGHT

 

aus_punter's picture

HASN'T ANYONE WORKED OUT THAT HE READS PRECHTER, CHANGES A FEW WORDS, THROWS IN THE ODD S&P TARGET AND HOPES FOR THE BEST ?

FROM 2003 TILL 07 HE WAS DEAD WRONG. EVENTUALLY HE HAD TO BE SOMEWHAT RIGHT

 

Anonymous's picture

Did someone say Roubini, issuer of the March 2009 statement IT'S A SUCKER's RALLY followed shortly after by NO GDP GROWTH IN 2009.

Susancai's picture

Since the lesson is profound, why not start now carefully. We don't hope to see another similar lesson. free advertising |jobs|memory foam mattress

pams's picture

lol... in Turkey it is really hot in the winter, I spent the Christmas there and it was fantastic. I was in Antalya. winnebago hire

race1234's picture

Interesting blog sharing. I really get good impress to read your information. mostly peoples are like your blog. because its a good knowledge for peoples. thanks for your wonderful sharing.

pams's picture

Very good points you wrote here..Great stuff...I think you've made some truly interesting points.Keep up the good work Ölfilter für Volkswagen