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Bob Janjuah - "Hopefully, For All Our Sakes, The Bubble Bursts Sooner Rather Than Later"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by the man himself in all its epilepsy-inducing grammatic glory. As always read this in parallel with Seth Klarman's lessons.

In my last cmmt I said the rebound from the initial S+P sell-off (from 1150 to 1045) would get us back to 1080/1100, before resuming the downtrend. As a cautionary 'stop' I highlighted 1120 as a key level for the rebound and said that 3/4 consecutive closes above 1120 would CHGE the tactical view - in such an outcome 1150 and then 1220 S+P would be the tactical objectives. Whilst - so far - we have had one marginal and only 1 meaningful close above 1120, I wanted to highlight as early and clearly as possible the potential for this new BULLISH tactical outcome to become THE CALL for the weeks ahead.

I know I will always be labelled a perma-bear, and I have given up on the idea that (at least some) folks will ever understand/appreciate that occasionally I do make bullish calls (most notably early in 2009!). But for those who do follow/read my work in more detail I want to be crystal clear: If S+P closes above 1120 for the 1st 3 days of this week, 1150 and 1220 are next. If not - if we fall and close below 1120 on 3/4 consecutive closes this week/early next, then the odds are high of a resumption of a downtrend which shud take S+P to sub-1000 over the next mth or so.

With that said I want to finish off with some longer terms messages:

- the Big Reality over the next 3/5 yrs, esp. in the bad balance sheet countries - the UK, the US, Japan, big parts of Europe - is a long period of balance sheet repair which will mean weaker grwth for longer, deflation, weaker incomes, softer employment outlooks, more savings, more taxes, and less spending.

There is NO sustainable prvte sector demand, and there really won't be any for some yrs.

- delusion no.1 is that these economies will devalue and export there way out of trouble. This seems a nonsense to me as EVERYONE is looking to devalue (a race to nowhere) and EVERYONE is looking to export, but to whom??

- delusion no.2 is that we can inflate away our debts. This can ONLY wrk successfully if such a policy of inflation is unanticipated, as otherwise it gets pre-emptively priced into inflation expectations. So it has already failed as AT LEAST half the mrkts see/expect this as the attempted way out.

- delusion no.3 is that governments can keep pumping/printing/borrowing, without consequence, and for long enough to hide the private sector deleveraging/deflationary trends. Those limits are pretty much already with us (Greece), or are soon to be with us give or take a few mths (in the UK), or at best give or take a few qtrs (in the case of the US). On the basis that prvte sector weakness is a multi-yr trend, government is NOT gonna be the solution and will become/is now part of the problem as austerity kicks in (Greece 'done', UK in a few mths, then the US later this year).

- delusion no.4 is 'the weather'. What a load of tosh. Frankly I am shocked the 'mrkt' collectively has fallen for this rubbish.

Anyway, due to the above 4 delusions the mrkt - as ever dominated by FEAR and GREED - is already badly mispricing the Big Reality and risks taking this mispricing YET AGAIN to horrible bubble proportions over the next few weeks/mths. YES - we have learnt nothing!

At some point the bubble will burst. Hopefully for ALL our sakes its sooner rather than later. The longer we are forced to wait, the bigger the bubble will be and the more horribly damaging the bursting process will be. And if we are forced to wait and the bubble gets anywhere like the one that went pop in late 2007 I have ZERO idea who will credibly be able to bail us all out the next time round. Certainly not OUR governments.

The gap between the fantasy in mrkts, which is being heavily touted by most of the sell-side, vs the reality of the real economy/prvte sector, is already worryingly large but risks becoming dangerously large. I am staggerred that folks who are paid to spot such things not only missed the biggest eco/mrkt disaster of our times, but are now cheerleading the 'recovery'. It seems to me that we are once again in the zone where policymakers and their willing partners on the sell-side are convincing the 'mrkt' that nothing can go wrong again and that worrying abt debt is just foolish. The same fantasy which said that house prices could never go down and that CPDO was a brilliant idea is now reforming/taking hold so that investors are once again chasing yield with little/no appreciation for the true risks being taken.

My futile rantings are not going to chge the game, and indeed many of you may already be bored stiff with my worrisome ways, but hopefully some of you will take heed and not get too sucked in. The trick is (a) to remember this, i.e, to be fully aware of the gap between reality and delusion, (b) to retain a rock solid appreciation of the differences between 'investing' vs. 'trading', between 'debt' and 'liquidity', and between actual vs. assumed liquidity, (c) as investors to ensure that your 'balance sheet' is not unduly damaged in the pursuit of yield - be sure you understand that taking a whole heap more risk now for a bit more carry is likely to be a strategy that ends very badly once the current bubble bursts, and (d) to stay on the right side of these 'pairs' - simply put, favour QUALITY.

Those that do will I think be the real multi-yr winners. Those who don't might see/rept a few decent qtrs (q2 09 thru to some point in h2 10), but ultimately will likely suffer so much when the current bubble bursts that they'll wish they 'had'.

Cheers, Bob

 


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Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Madcow
Madcow's picture

Wall Street is broadcast center for delusion. Analysts, traders, and politicians in New York, Washington, London, and Brussels do NOT see (or at least acknowledge) that the supply chains supporting the private economy are falling apart. 

Google "sudden stop" for a glimpse of the future.  

 

disclosure: long peanut butter, dried beans, propane, seeds, and fertilizer.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Wall Street is broadcast center for delusion.

This.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:00 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ooh, goody.

The term “sudden stop” was inspired by a banker’s comment on a paper by Dornbusch and Werner about Mexico, that “it is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop”.[2]

Sudden stops are commonly described as periods that contain at least one observation where the year-on-year fall in capital flows lies at least two standard deviations below its sample mean[3]. The start of the sudden stop period is determined by the first time the annual change in capital flows falls one standard deviation below the mean and the end of the sudden stop period is determined once the annual change in capital flows exceeds one standard deviation below its sample mean.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stop_%28economics%29

Disclosure: sealed #10 cans (~25 years) of the above food stuffs, plus solar energy/oven, and 7.62 FMJ

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I assume you will willingly hand over those 7.62 Full Metal Jacket beauties along with the weapon that fires them when you're asked nicely to disarm, right?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:21 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Chuck Heston sez:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0B_UZNtEk4

"And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?"

 

Nobel prize winner Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/gaddy/gaddy53.html

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:15 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

 I'm sure that people along our southern borders will take a strong interest in how that progresses.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

+1, except instead of 7.62FMJ, it's surplus .30-06 in my case. 

If an M1 Garand was good enough for my relatives in WWII & Korea, it's good enough for me.  (Plus, I love the "ping" when the clip ejects.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9d01zAmnMY

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Long olive oil and other cooking oils, butter, sugar, salt and other spices, rice, batteries, gold bitches and silver snitches, cereal, honey, green tea, other teas, coffee, a generator, some handy knives, a tool, some good books, a four season tent, a decent sleeping bag, canned foods (ie tuna and jams), bleach, and a lot of tabasco.

Tue, 03/09/2010 - 20:55 | Link to Comment wejn
wejn's picture

Hm. You're forgetting so many things it's not even funny.

toilet paper, antibiotics, soap, laundry detergent, lye, other basic chemicals.

I could go on and on, but I guess you get the idea.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:19 | Link to Comment 10044
10044's picture

"We have learnt nothing"
Actually "we" have, "THEY" haven't! That's why we buy GOLD bitches!!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:58 | Link to Comment nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Yeah, but much like stocks, you'll want to diversify your vegetable portfolio. Mix up the crop a little in case the spuds get the blight. There's a lot you can translate from stock investing to growing vegetables :)

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:16 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I think that's a fine idea.  I've been contemplating doing the same myself with my front lawn.  It's a mess anyway since the sprinklers broke down years ago and I never bothered fixing them because fuck the lawn.  It's only costing me money to water it and pay some poor laborer to come mow it and clean it up occasionally, and if I don't the city apparently has the funds to send someone out to stick a stupid notice on my door about the "overgrown vegetation".  Overgrown vegetation?  Bitch, those are green shoots!  Don't you know there's a recession on?

Meanwhile, it doesn't do shit for me.  Even if I did have time to spend lounging around on a full, luscious lawn, drinking some brews and taking in the rays on an outdoor recliner amidst my personal savannah, it's just not worth the ROI.  Dogs and cats from the neighborhood use it as their personal toilet, pissing and shitting all over it, and the weeds have made themselves at home as well.  If I wanted a high maintenance money drain I would've kept my first wife.  Lawns are a liability, not an asset.

No thanks, I'd rather turn it into something productive, in full view of the neighbors so that hopefully they'll get inspired and start their own garden.  The last thing I want is every unprepared softie coming to me when the local Safeway is barren hitting me up for some squash.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Justin Credible
Justin Credible's picture

Sorry to go off topic from the BJ piece, but I am glad to have finally found someone with the same viewpoint on lawns and grass as I have.  It's my belief that one day, we will look back as a civilization and wonder why we spent so much time, energy, money, sweat, fertilizer, and water to grow grass on dirt outside of our residence.  Horrible ROI, unless you're definition of ROI includes outdoing your neighbor's landscape.

I live in CO - grass is not supposed to grow here.  Quit fixing the sprinklers - they just always break again.  Told my neighbors "I'll let God decide where my grass will grow" (am not religous in that way). 

 

Sadly, I receive no incentives for consuming far less drinking water (to blow all over the dirt) than my neighbors who constantly water.

 

Of course, if I were a wealthy hedgie living in CT, I'd probably have a lush lawn and a fleet of landscapers who manicured it at least once/week.

 

God bless America.

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:14 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

"Lawns are a liability, not an asset."

Try selling a house without one

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:22 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

No problem, I still have equity :)  And after the loan modification, I have a variable payment for the first five years leading up to a fixed 5.x% interest rate that will then stay with me for 30 years.

By the time I'm ready to sell, a front yard garden will be an asset, and a selling point.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:00 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Uh, savers are getting killed, by design.

Instead of a natural interest rate set by the free market you have bankers with asymmetrical ethics gaming returns to force mom and pop to "speculate" in order to preserve their sweat (net worth = wealth).

Instead of being able to judiciously squirrel away for rainy days, a relatively comfortable future, and provide opportunities for offspring we are deceived and lulled into thinking inflation is a good thing. "Wow, my house is worth $400,000!!"  

Load up and default viciously - follow the lead of banksters if you want to make it through - hard work, integrity, and justice are figments of your imagination when a fiat currency is in its death throes.

Defaulting on banksters is patriotic at this point - or shall we all pretend this too shall pass and gladly accept our slavery? 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:28 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Try selling one WITH one.

HA!

But seriously, soon enough a functioning and producing garden will be seen by buyers as a great asset, and will drive up the value of a given plot of land by quite a bit.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

This pressure to maintain a freshly mowed lawn is typical of the sterilized monoculture that we have embraced.  I live in the country so when I left home for a few weeks last summer, the natural vegetation kinda took over.  When I returned I just let it be.  I couldn't bring myself to mow down the wild flowers, frogs, snakes, and the diversity of life living over my septic field.  There must be some symbolism in there somewhere.  Leave it alone.  Life will be just fine without the constant manipulation.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

In order not to be persona non grata in the neighborhood, try xeriscapic landscaping and mulch.  It'll look a lot better than weeds, and not require watering once established.  I'm shrinking my lawn bit by bit with this approach.  Then again, you may enjoy being persona non grata.

Also, I will assume that you have never grown squash before - they are amazingly prolific plants, like most well-cared for vegetables.  You will either need a large freezer, lots of jars for canning, or need to share the bounty, because even just 3-4 plants will have you swimming in squash.  If you have other like-minded neighbors, coordinate with them, and then swap vegies.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:06 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

put in fruit trees now, they take time to mature, and low maintenance

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

A book which may prove very helpful to you is "Square Foot Gardening," by Mel Bartholomew (ISBN: 978-1591862024). 

Using the techniques outlined in this book, the author says that one four-foot by four-foot (i.e. 1.2M by 1.2M) box garden can supply one person with salad each day of the growing season.  An additional box of the same area can provide that person with his supper vegetables each day of the growing season.

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:38 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yes, yes, yes:

http://www.amazon.com/All-New-Square-Foot-Gardening/dp/1591862027

This is a seriously great book. It is amazingly simple, set up shop anywhere, and "get sustainable" in a hurry. Took the fear of gardening right out of me - extremely pragmatic.

If you have full-spectrum LEDs you can get a head-start indoors with seedlings to transplant as soon as winter has ended its reign for the year. That would be LEDs run off a small bank of deep-cycle batteries.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

What does "bail us all out" actually mean?  Hell if I want to "bail out" any governments...   Or any banks, or public sector pension funds or greedy spendthrift middle-class consumers...

I mean, who's left to be "bailed out"?  What's he talking about? 

Public services, schools, hospitals, etc.?  If those were unaffordable entitlements BEFORE, how can they possibly be afforded now, with businesses failing, printing presses running overtime and tax takes down?

I don't see anything deserving of a bailout at all.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

What does "bail us all out" actually mean?  Hell if I want to "bail out" any governments...   Or any banks, or public sector pension funds or greedy spendthrift middle-class consumers...

I mean, who's left to be "bailed out"?  What's he talking about? 

Public services, schools, hospitals, etc.?  If those were unaffordable entitlements BEFORE, how can they possibly be afforded now, with businesses failing, printing presses running overtime and tax takes down?

I don't see anything deserving of a bailout at all.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

When you get right down to it, economic capitalism is 'No pain, no gain.' Through his attempts to ensure a painless depression, Bernanke's policies will result in economic atrophy.   

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It'll be like the 1800's all over again: lots of ghost towns between here and San Fran, except where you can find Mormons.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment claradan
claradan's picture

It is difficult to beat the same drum in the face of current price action - but Bob's view has been consistent and I hope and believe he will not waver.

In 30 years time - an MBA class will be studying a 'must read' book about the era we are currently experiencing. It will be detailing the bio's of the great investors of the time and those that were fooled and failed to interpret events correctly.

The book will become a historical benchmark for investing in times of extreme risk, high debt burdens, sovereign vulnerability, low interest rates and volatile exchange rates.
What will that book say - I have no idea, but one thing I do know is that if we were to look back at any other period in time that had the same mix of extremes - students would not be concluding that it was a no brainer to expect stocks to rally and sit on bonds despite the nose bleed levels of debt.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Why is the default setting for the press, academia and the public at large always the assumption that the powers-that-be are trying to "fix" anything at any time? Why don't we all assume that they are trying to propagate a Ponzi to enrich the few to the detriment of the many?

Would changing the default view upset the many, maybe even pop the balloon we all carry through life that is printed with the words "sucker for life" and which everyone sees but ignores? We participate in the myth in order to excuse ourselves from taking a stand, of fighting back, of screaming at the top of our lungs "Just say NO to the Ponzi" (thanks Nancy dear) and forcing those that do strictly for themselves to also take a stand. Maybe that's it, no one wishes to stir the pot, to wake the savage beast, to come face to face with the ugly truth.

Why do the vast majority of us shrink away when the school yard bully draws close? Because we falsely believe we are alone. Since we believe we are alone, we act as if we are alone. Perception is reality folks. Wake up!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

1) Because we are loath to admit that we are/were wrong.

2) Because we don't want to be killed by the machine*.

* We've been progammed for non-violent reform, which means that reform isn't really possible and that the only acceptable violence is by the system itself.

I think that there's also a third reason:

3) Patience, and the art of affecting change by appearing to do nothing*.  Or, more bluntly, withhold one's energy from the system in order to cause its demise. *Obviously, one cannot do "nothing," as the choice to not do something is in itself an active choice.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"1) Because we are loath to admit that we are/were wrong."

A comforting delusion that allows us to remain in our delusion. If I don't have to admit I'm wrong, I never need to examine my basic premise.

"2) Because we don't want to be killed by the machine*.

* We've been progammed for non-violent reform, which means that reform isn't really possible and that the only acceptable violence is by the system itself."

Bingo! Institutionalized violence always flows down hill, from the "more worthy" to the "less worthy." Thus the state can inflict violence upon the citizens to protect the state but the citizens of the state cannot inflict violence upon the state to protect the citizenship. This relationship implies that the knowledge of what is right and just lay with the state and not the individual. "We The People" doesn't mean "individual" but rather the "state".

Someone once told me we don't live in a violent state. I pointed out to him that as long as he goes with the flow and doesn't resist, there is no violence. But once he says "No" the guns come out and he is violated.

And as you pointed out and as I always inform my clients, doing nothing is in and of itself, doing something. It is an action, to remain where you stand. People conveniently forget that there are three choices. Going forward, going backward and standing still. The military is one institution that fully and completely understands this concept.

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:16 | Link to Comment assembler
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:04 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Advocating violence is unromantic until you see loved ones hauled away/cut down right before your eyes.

"Is that a real gun! Why do you have a real gun!!"

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Is that a real gun! Why do you have a real gun!!"

I am often asked that as I practice my right to open carry. I always answer the same way.

"Yes, the gun is real. Why don't you own a gun?"

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 10:48 | Link to Comment godfader
godfader's picture

Where's the crash Bob has been harping about for months?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Yeah, well... that's the tough part, isn't it?

Bob can keep on postponing Financial Armageddon by suggesting that things will be worse the longer we wait for the bubble to burst.  Eventually he will be "right" the same way a busted clock is "right" two times a day.

That's not to say that Bob's an idiot or lacks insight.  I just find it hard to invest with someone who says something along the lines of "the market remains in a downtrend, but if it trades for 3 days above X level, revise your sights higher".  Well, until the bubble bursts.

Like I said, though, I still like reading Bob for his unique perspectives, and don't really disagree with his central thesis.  I just don't see how I can consistently make money by following his insights.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:28 | Link to Comment godfader
godfader's picture

That's why him and his ilk are predicting/forecasting for a living instead of trading for a living. Big difference.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 23:44 | Link to Comment aus_punter
aus_punter's picture

look up his history and you will see that he tried the trading bit.......no dice......bounced from shop to shop sprouting the same armageddon type stuff.  The difference between him and the cheerleaders is that if you had followed their advice you would still have some capital , over the last decade if youd followed his advice you would be broke. 

He works for RBS.........

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

There it is.  And which is why I cannot but be focused upon capital preservation rather than trading around these markets as I appreciate how little I do know about this particular arena.  Best wishes to as you has you make the attempt Assetman.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

In other words, "good luck with that trading thing"...

Thanks... though I've given up the attempt to out-trade the financial elites a long time ago.  This is why I take a look at this commentary and conclude is a little bit on the silly side.  It doesn't matter, because most of us are being manipulated for as long as were foolish enough to trade.

Nope, I've got my two positions in gold and a long term derivative bet in market volatility.  Hopefully, I'm right on both, but I'll take one out of the two.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:08 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It doesn't matter, because most of us are being manipulated for as long as were foolish enough to trade.

There it is.

"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.” —Samuel Adams

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:24 | Link to Comment mule65
mule65's picture

So the "man" is short term up and long term down.  Spineless way to be right all the time.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Well... until conditions tell him otherwise. ;)

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:47 | Link to Comment brandy night rocks
brandy night rocks's picture

In markets, 'right all the time' makes you the equivalent of a combat ace fighter pilot who shoots lazers out of his eyes and can dunk over Lebron.  'Spineless' means precisely dick.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:02 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Bubble?  What bubble?

Greek market keeps going up, and their "punishment" for running a messy house means that must pay a rate which most people would have killed for just three years ago.  Even the riots only had MTV longevity.  Spain takes a bond offering off the shelf and the market appears receptive.

All the bearish blogs carried comments this weekend about crowded US shopping malls.  CNN Int'l is running a story about the labor shortage in China, a country with approximately an 800 million person labor force, all of whom apparently are now gainfully employed making crap few want to buy.

RE is rising in China, Singapore and most of SEAsia.  British RE has reportedly stabilized.  California land is being lapped up by the homebuilders at twice the price it fetched a year ago.  AIG sells one of its sole moneymakers to MET, and BOTH stocks go up.

REITs can heavily dilute their equity and have their share prices rise;  governments can print bucketloads of money and rates fall and fall.  S&P futures are up 11 straight days.  With only minor hiccups, the world's equity markets are up 70% from last March's lows.  Hitting a bid on anything other than a bear ETF is considered a market correction.

The world has dismissed Dubai, Greece, Spain, California, Iranian saber-rattling, North Korean posturing, strained US-China ties, an inscrutable Japanese bond and currency regime, UE6 of 18% in the US, $82 oil, and FAntaSBy accounting.

With the exception of the aforementioned temporary unpleasantness in Athens, the lesser-but-equal citizens of the world have accepted every indignity thrown at them with barely a furrowed brow, which is the green light for the self-chosen few to continue their pillaging.

Do you mean that bubble?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Nope, that's not the bubble he's talking about. Because by all accounts, no one can see a bubble, either during it's inception, growth spurt or final explosive expansion. Only when the slime has splattered across the room can a bubble be identified, and only then because of the trail of tears it has left behind.

Like a high energy particle at CERN, you can't actually see the bubble, only the effects it leaves in its passing.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

One cannot see the fores through the trees...  And one cannot see the economic troubles through the growth bubble...

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Nothing fuels capital inefficiencies like an endless supply of free money for the chosen few. Obama understands a sizable chunk of the Banksters' bonuses ends up at the Treasury, and therefore doesn't begrudge Dimon and Blankfein. The world is an apple which is rotten to the core. 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment bbbilly1326
bbbilly1326's picture

:-)

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

The bubble mentality continues and will continue because a bubble economy is the only thing most of the adult population has ever known and it will only stop when it collapses completely.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

dig the avatar

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

damn took my mind off the bubble babble, thanks†

Berzerkly - Students are traditionally always the first to riot, since most of them are young and rebellious, and therefore it's easier to get them to engage in street protest and vent their anger.

could be a start for something bigger. got to have hope that the generation getting most phucked will throw the first stone.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:17 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Show me a young conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains. - Winston Churchill

Even Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn decided they couldn't raise kids and have freedom at the same time. Even the most passionate eventually get tired of hoisting the black flag every day.

Communiqué #1

 

Hello. This is Bernardine Dohrn.

 

I'm going to read A DECLARATION OF A STATE OF WAR.

 

This is the first communication from the Weatherman Underground...

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"got to have hope that the generation getting most phucked will throw the first stone."

Have you given any thought to why is hasn't happened yet? The reasons are so much deeper than simply there is no draft. The developed world has been subjected to unimaginable levels of programing and mind control over the past 30 or more years by way of television (including computer games) with lessor accolades given to print and radio.

The current "young" generation is the first generation to have matured fully enveloped in the virtual reality world of computer games, which are carefully entwined into the sports and entertainment world. Now the existing population is being assaulted with the next stage, that of the 3-D world of movies, with Avatar being the breakthrough that first captures the public mind in a significant way.

Has anyone been reading the Avatar blogs and mainstrem media about stories of people leaving the theaters deeply depressed that they had to leave Pandora, the fantasy world of Avatar, meaning they were depressed to be re-entering reality?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:27 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Reality sucks.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:00 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

cd not an avatar follower. depressed they had to leave the theater? cause it represented a little heaven peace of mind to them. yeah this countries young people are brain dead, my daughter is for sure and could care less about anything outside of her world. i get terribly excited to see and hear young people uprising. i did it in my youth. C'est La Vie

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Obaaaaama Obaaaama!  And I thought the sheeple would "wake up" by now........WAKE UP!!!!  You are not your kakis!  You are not Pandorainians!  You are living in a matrix of power, annd you have been lied to about this!  WAKE UP!!!!!  please.........

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Winisk
Winisk's picture

Perhaps deep in their psyche, they realize that their bodies were programmed to run across the savannah and feel the dirt below their feet.  Avatar may have triggered this longing for a reality long lost and now they are beginning to feel the pain of waking up.  Then again, maybe they prefer escapism.  

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Funny ad from Citi appearing on financial websites. It says:

"It's tough times like this that show what we're really made of".

Citi stock price during the "tough times": $55 to a low below a dollar.  Taxpayer bailout takes it back to the high $3's.

Hallelujah!  Truth in advertising!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Hehe... I just got Bill Lockyer to write Tyler a check via Google by clicking on the CA bond deal ad.

Isn't America (Kalifornia) great?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Golden rule in selling anything is to create an urgency to act now before it's too late, before they run out, to get in early in order to make the biggest profits.

From the CA bond deal web site, where they are appealing to the plebs.

.............................

Individual investors enjoy advantages when they buy bonds or notes during the early order period
  • Individual investors get to place their orders before institutional investors, such as mutual funds or insurance companies.
  • They earn the same investment return as institutional investors who buy the same bonds or notes.
  • They do not pay the upfront brokerage fee/commission. (Individuals should check with their broker to learn about any other transaction or account maintenance fees.)
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

I bought the Elvis plates during the "limited release."

I mean, there's no guarantee they'll go up in value, but all the other ones have

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Thank you, thank you very much...

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:43 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

In the Bizarro World

Delusion 1) Governments will reflate and import their way out of trouble. Consumers spend, sales tax revenues are collected, everyone is happy. Think about it this way. Uncle borrows ten grand at 3% coupon for thirty years, and he gives it to you. You spend it immediately, putting a 10% sales tax revenue into the government war chest. We can do this indefinitely if you like.

Delusion 2) Through greater debt we can (whip?) inflation. As long as interest bearing accounts and borrowing rates are correlated, somewhat like night and day, we can keep inflation in check by deflating the credit markets. Risk, Risk? We don't need no stinking risk!!

delusion 3) Governments can solve their problems through austerity. You can't fight deflation without priming, pumping, and printing (sexual innuendo noted). To those state and local governments which are restricted from deficit spending, the bond market offers a nice solution. Additionally when governments figure out they can reduce expenses by leveraging debt and buying self sustainable energy solutions, the will do it. Float a bond, buy a solar panel, turn off the grid. (Tune in, turn on, drop out??) People will do this as well, if they are half as smart as government. I think they are.

 

delusion 4) Bad weather is good for the economy. We need Global Warming. We need more hurricanes to destroy the Gulf Coast, (so we can provide much needed stimulus). 

 

we can fulfill the Bizarro Delusions 1-4 by just doing what we have been doing. Rule 1: Nothing Changes: Get ready for it. Rule 2: The world ends with a whimper. The corporate supply lines are fragile, the corporate outposts are big and require too much energy, too many employees. The global recession is a guerilla war against their profit margin. It will take a while, but the corporate model of business and government, really the same, will collapse, and people will visit the ruins of big box stores, and marvel at their feudalist business model. Life is so much better now, they will say.

 

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:44 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

There is a very good reason why Livermore said to lock yourself in a room and don't listen to anyone else.  Everyone thinks they'll be able to jump off the train at just the right moment...Just like they did with fabulous success in September 2008.

Chucky P was absolutely right...as long as the music is playing you have to play the game.

"I know I'm a fool."

 

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:55 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

GOLD BITCHES!!

Seriously, time is running out.  Go out and get you some even if it's just a little.  Even a couple fractionals will put you ahead of the pack.  Silver is cheap.  By all measures.

Please, for your family, for your friends, for your neighbors, this is not fun and games any longer (if it ever was).  This will be a matter of life and death and physical assets, including hard money, will mean all the difference.  No paper assets will be of any use to you after the jump.

Gold, Guns, Garden

Silver, Bullets, Seed

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:33 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Prepared, no crash: nothing lost.

Unprepared, with crash: everything lost.

----

Gerald Celente survived the recent Chilean 8.8 quake:

We put our motto, “Think for yourself,” into action. Luckily, though seriously damaged, the hotel stood. Had it collapsed, those within it who were waiting to follow orders from tour guides or hotel personnel would have perished.

 

When survival is at stake physical, fiscal or psychological the only leader to follow is yourself.

Prepare for the worst. If the worst doesn’t happen, nothing is lost. But if the worst happens and no preparations have been made … everything is lost.

 

The life-threatening element of the quake was past, but not the threat to life. In the few minutes it took Celente and Abatelli to make it downstairs, out into the street and back to the hotel lobby entrance, wolf-packs of screaming young men materialized, seemingly out of nowhere, even though it was 4 AM.

 


Rampaging through the streets, they bowled over and mugged anyone unlucky enough to get in their path. Police were nowhere to be seen.

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente24.1.html


Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"We put our motto, “Think for yourself,” into action."

It was probably 10 years ago that I was reading an in-depth story of the survivors of a plane crash that had happened 10 year earlier. The plane had crash landed and while nearly everyone survived the initial impact, most of the people died in the subsequent fire. Why? The article referred to a NTSB report on the matter, which I was able to get through my local library exchange service, this being before many government agencies had everything on line.

I remember reading what happened in very dry and clinical verbiage. The people who waited in the aisles to exit the plane mostly perished. Those who thought for themselves, who took responsibility to save themselves, who didn't wait for "official instructions" and discarded social norms, who climbed over seats backs to get to the nearest exit, mostly survived.

These people were also socially shunned by the few who were near the front of the line and managed to survive. BTW, none of the crew died or were even seriously hurt. They obviously got out ahead of most of the rest. Why? They clearly decided to think for themselves as well. Yet they were lauded as heroes.

Interesting.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:52 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Both close-combat black belts, Celente and Abatelli’s decades of physical and psychological training would serve them well.

I like Celente but I wonder how much of this is talk as a first line of defense; i.e. psychological deterrence.

Celente doesn't look all that tough.  I mean, how tough can you be if you wear a scarf? :)

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:06 | Link to Comment chrob
chrob's picture

I agree, gold is one of the only reasonable areas to invest in nowadays.  I think diversifying across several gold mining companies is a good idea too, in addition to gold bullion, because of how leveraged many of them are to the gold price, and because of the potential for takeovers in the sector, as Alamos Gold's CEO alluded to today.  I saw a bunch of news items related to gold stocks here that I thought was useful, including details on the Alamos story:

http://www.goldalert.com/gold-stocks.php

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:34 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Sigh.

THIS IS NOT ABOUT INVESTING.  THIS IS ABOUT SURVIVAL.

Fuck your portfolio!

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:04 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture
maxkeiser
Mar 8, 2010 at 5:08 pm

Got Gold?

New currencies being created in the mid-east will have a gold component.

Chinese, Indians, Russians. . . . all increasing gold positions.

Rich hedge funds like P.J. Jones, Soros, and John Paulson dramatically increasing gold position.

also, I have some inside info. re: Janet T. She is working on a new story about the gold ETF, GLD that should be out soon (if it is not already out).

C & P off keiser.com blog you might like.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:31 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

If you have enough gold, you can buy social relationships.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment House Atreides
House Atreides's picture

+100

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

If you have a supply of guns and bullets, you are prepared.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:33 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Did you check your weapon to make sure it's serial #1?

If not, there are probably a lot more of them out there.

Stop playing SOCOM Strike Team Bravo....there are no health packs in real life.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Um, even if it was serial #1, there would most likely still be more out there (unless he made it himself, but still).

What's your point?  None, as usual.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:49 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ned, this post is atypical and unbecoming of your wit. Many have lost their souls because of a growling belly. You can get a year-supply of food that will stay "fresh" for 20+ years in lieu of one gold coin. You can always eat it.

www.waltonfeed.com

Disclosure: This is where I buy. Good eastern Idaho people.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Totally agree.  Food is cheap if you buy in bulk.  I know I got bulk food for myself, my parents, and my sister just shopping around mostly locally.  I have a LDS friend so even used their cannery.  Seriously bulk food even at the local Costco is very reasonably priced.  Sure some people may think it's silly to have extra food but at least I know my ass won't starve. 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:47 | Link to Comment stoverny
stoverny's picture

"At some point the bubble will burst. Hopefully for ALL our sakes its sooner rather than later."

Is there really any doubt that the bubble will in fact burst later, rather than sooner?  The entire will and resources of the govt and the Fed are being used for the singular purpose of keeping it inflated longer than most rational people think is possible.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Anyone here notice that gazzilionaires are buying big spreads in Montana and Wyoming? How much do you think it costs to build and stock a doomsday compound? Not much for those guys.

Me, I'm heading to Northern Thailand when the shit hits...see you in the next world...

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:41 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Som tam, satay and Singha...could be worse.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Can you do me a favor and shoot me some websites about that area?  I'm looking at a summer vacation and trying to talk my parents into taking their money out of country and was looking at Chiang Mai to try to drag them to.  How is the area for older retirment age expats?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:13 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Street getting jiggy with it.

Just a matter of time donchaknow until Ma and Pa Kettle are willing to bet that farm again. MSM peppering them with the pablum narrative that the nascent recovery is becoming more and more secure each and every day... how can you not brothers and sisters invest for the long term? Profits set to ramp, earnings set to launch ... now is the time! Get on board or get left behind.

Leading or lagging? Most assuredly quite nagging... as angels of proprietary are being swamped by the institutional diktat against sobriety.

And please o ye analyticus ursinus don't beleaguer us, howl the Nancy Capitalists, with inconvenient truths such as seasonal adjustments or past revisions or government intervention distorting statistics.

Seriously, so what if the Federales Household Survey showed that this month the category of 'Men 16 years and older' accounted for 297,000 of the 308,000 jobs gain and last month 'Women 20 years and older' produced 529,000 of the 541,000 jobs gain.

Dude, stats happen! Don't blame the soothsaya.

Street jiggin' in hopes of J6P piggin'.. and the fringe?...it be wiggin!

Crawford Perspectives
March 8th
By Arch Crawford

On February 1, we wrote here “Either three days of accelerating ‘scary’ drops will appear soon, to finalize this decline, or markets will meander…”. Immediately following, a sharp drop materialized culminating with the low during the day of February 5. And this: “Whether a seasonally higher April or May peak is in the cards remains a debatable issue and the cycles need not be rushed into a premature judgment.” Yep, still debatable!

The Bradley Model goes down from now to late September as the astronomic pressure grows more and more deleterious into the most powerful major alignment we have ever seen. Zimmer in Vienna (Amanita) calculated the Bradley back 200 years and has seen nothing so potentially damaging.

At the recent NCGR conference in Cambridge, Mass., another astrologer said they checked back for sky patterns a thousand years and another piped up that they had looked back Ten Thousand years and neither had seen this one’s match!

One need not be particularly “superstitious” to take minimal precautions in these challenging times. The Mormons are required to hold 2 years worth of food and water in their homes. What do THEY know? The HOPI say that this fifth destruction of the world will be by Earthquakes this time. With the events of recent days, maybe one should head for some high ground… but NOT with ‘overhanging’ ground.'

AM here: 'Tis a good thing that us Moderns with our fancy models and prophetic prognostications based on random-walk and fundamental analysis don't believe in this kind of stuff eh? Golly gee so what if the orthodoxy predicts that index swings of more than 7 percent should come once every 300,000 years. So what if the twentieth century saw forty-eight such days.

So what?

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:29 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

analyticus ursinus

Brilliant! And then I looked at your avatar again. Good one!

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:13 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Inspired when Rosie said something to the effect of, 'Don't want to be a permabear at the low but...'

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 17:19 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

Money?

some high ground… but NOT with ‘overhanging’ ground.'

cliffs, boulders, tall buildings.

High Desert Farmers Growing Navajo-Hopi Tea Greenthread Organically on the High Desert Plateau

or The high, redrock desert of the Colorado Plateau

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 20:21 | Link to Comment AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

High Desert Farmer ... sounds like college :)

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:19 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

it seems reasonable to assume that should Ron Paul be able to bring the Feds past history of manipulating the market to a credible tipping point,(and raise the notion that they Fed helped transfer funds for the Watergate burgulars, and that they have a history of not behaving independently) that once that occurs the Fed will not be able to remain independent. However the powers the Fed has taken on its own, probably won't return to the Congress, but will remain with the Executive, (did you notice Obama return any of the powers Bush purloined from the Constitution, and try to restore the system of checks and balances? Executive takes the Fed under its wing, as Bush really sealed that deal, but it was going that way for decades. So once the power at the Fed comes under Obama, don't expect the markets to do a dance. While the economy becomes more politcized, expect more scorched earth policy, on both sides of the aisle.

Election turns could be super dangerous. Bush blew up the economy in late 2008, partly to try and keep people voting GOP out of fear that change would destroy the fragile markets, and because he wanted to poison the ground under the Democratic takeover. Obama really changed nothing, but the players.

The stock market is like an airplane, as long as you pay attention the thing stays in the air, (and of course the terrorists, the guys who want their party to win, try to blow it out of the air) the game has gotten really vicious, and the real plum, the economy, is the golden ring, if you can run that you can rule.

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 14:24 | Link to Comment 37FullHedge
37FullHedge's picture

Year 2012 to 2015

dow 20,000

naz 5,000

Before I get shouted at this is not a forecast but still possible.

Lets say the powers that be desire these numbers, I dont know, 1st The connected will be long and the fools/private investors will be probed to go short.

Could the powers pull this off, 100% yes.

Leave interest rates at near zero for years, stoke price inflation via commodities and a little wage inflation. Companies pass on this inflation hence higher profits, Cash yielding zero for a few years while stocks keep rising.

Private investors pension funds forget the credit crises, Things are different this time and ignore P/E 30 or 40 The connected go short and the party continues for the elite.

The point I am making like this article, Go with the market with caution, The crash will come today or in a few years, A 20,000 Dow may and possibly will happen before the crash, Nothing is a no brainer.

I use physical silver to cover my assets, Silver will boom if the Dow hits 20,000 and should hold up if/when the sh1t hits the fan.

I assume nobody forecasts a Dow 20,000 in a few years and with good reason, Thats why it is very very possible.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:18 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Will the dollar be worth twice what it is today? That's possible. Look at the charts of the Nikkeis parabolic rise.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:12 | Link to Comment sharonsj
sharonsj's picture

I still am amazed at the fast slide we've experienced into the 2012 doomsday prophecy.   I started stocking up some time ago, and I already live in the boonies, where I've learned to be prepared.  The only thing I'm worried about is my Social Security, since it's my main income.  It's kind of hard to rebel against the government when you need a walker to do it.

I do not trust the stock market and would rather own things of value instead of pieces of paper.  There's always someone willing to buy antiques, collectibles, and jewelry.  I noticed that up until six months ago, the antique dealers were having a hard time of it--but now three new second-hand stores are opening up in the next town.  Looks like more and more people are not willing to hand their money over to the banksters.

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:30 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

O yeah! What about the people? Us , who are not working and so have time. Lots of time.

After our cable tv gets cut off and we run outa beer we are gonna be so pissed.

I am already pissed, dont watch tv, zerohedge is showing me the greatest show of all time.

Beer disgust me, but not us much as our government. Maybe i should drink some more

 

 

 

 

Mon, 03/08/2010 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"delusion no.1 is that these economies will devalue and export there way out of trouble. This seems a nonsense to me as EVERYONE is looking to devalue (a race to nowhere) and EVERYONE is looking to export, but to whom??"

 

Thats my question!

Thu, 04/15/2010 - 10:42 | Link to Comment mark456
mark456's picture

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