Bob Janjuah: "This Is An Uber Bear Early Warning Alert...Major Risk Asset Sell Off Will See S&P Into 800s...The Fed Will Start New $5Tr QE Program"

Tyler Durden's picture

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George the baby crusher's picture

Roll up, roll up everyones a winner.

etrader's picture

Zero Hedge whips the other blogs again by getting Bob's full note....

MrTrader's picture

Too funny, RBS's former chief credit strategist is back as the doom and gloom prophet. How comes he has not foreseen his bank's own mess coming ?
 With other words : strong buy. :=)

Gully Foyle's picture


Emerson Lake And Palmer

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to the show that never ends
We're so glad could attend,
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There behind a glass
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to blow your head apart
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To Alexander's Ragtime Band,
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Roll up, roll up, roll up
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Send "Come On See The Show" Ringtone to your Cell

Noah Vail's picture

Dear Son:

Your Mother just died.

Cheers, Dad

Tart's picture

What a retard. When calls have "Uber" totally fantastic, know they're bs.

Tyler Durden's picture

Janjuah called both the 2007 and 2008 crashes to within weeks of the actual occurrence. Pretty much every trading desk in the world reads him.

Christobevii3's picture

Marc Faber has been riding his 1987 call all these years.  He's now been pushing chinese stocks all the way through its market fall and on par with Schiff on gold $5000 calls rambling for the last two years now.  Their theory on inflation may work one day but as long as credit destruction is outpacing QE, they are wrong.


I'm not saying that they are wrong, but usually after the initial perfect call everyones timing becomes quote premature or off enough that is not useful as a trade.

Wynn's picture

"credit destruction is outpacing QE"

nice succinct sentence to describe the last two years


Double down's picture

My thinking this is not working is because the FED also have to finance the cost of credibility. 

Money is a poor store of value for purchasing credibility, it is deeply and increasingly inefficient.

Also, the  QE "leaks", goes into hard assets and PM.  Even the "help" is gamed. 


chumbawamba's picture

Yeah, this article is written by Bob Janjuah, and clearly he didn't call for inflation but in fact says deflation is the name of the game.

Read the article again.

I am Chumbawamba.

SWRichmond's picture

Politics: the Fed's game may be to keep things going until November, when the fiscal conservatives take over.  Fiscal conservatism will end the bubble, and that's for sure.  We all know the bubble is ended anyway, but if it can appear to be extended into November, then the collapse can be publicly blamed on the fiscal conservatives.  It seems this is what Bob expects to happen, IF we can make it to November.  Or maybe the looming takeover of the fiscal conservatives will be used by the media as the reason markets are crashing into October, so as to try to minimize the takeover.  Both plans are probably in place, to be played as the situation warrants.

Bob might be expecting deflation, but he also says the Fed will come with more QE, and he also raises the issue of sovereign solvency.  It seems to me he isn't ready to make the call yet.

B9K9's picture

Ironically, the final crash will be due to fiscal conservatives, in the sense that it will be they who will precipitate & force a final resolution of the Fed(ish) question.

Reference some of Travis777 (snowball777?) or Mako's posts: the day QE ends is the day public sector credit expansion ends and thus is the day the entire shell game finally ends.

If you look at some of my earliest posts at ZH (even on the old blog), my interest has always been in identifying the "tell" as to when the Fed comes down. I believe Brown's election was the first tip; November of course will be the final nail.

Hussein, Goldman & the Fed had two years. They pulled off a nice little feint with the whole hope & change song & dance, which gave them access to the complete financial, economic, governmental & legal core of the world's most important country.

Six more months is all they have left. My primary interest is to not only participate in reforming the USA, but to make sure Hussein and the other criminals don't get a chance to enjoy their ill gotten loot.

When this fucker crashes, the long knives are coming out.

SWRichmond's picture

my interest has always been in identifying the "tell" as to when the Fed comes down.

For me, the "tell" has been the overtness of the looting.  And it's been ringing loud and clear.

hound dog vigilante's picture


We have a winner!

The bankster bonus payouts last year were THE tell. 

If the banksters thought there were any hope beyond 2012, then they would never have invited the PR nightmare that was triggered by massive bonus payouts (less than 12 months removed from taxpayer bailouts, no less).

The game is over. Everything is now calculated around "surviving" the mid-term elections, and nothing else. Wall St. will pay out one more whopper round of bonuses to their toadie employees in Q4 2010. By 2012 we will not recognize Wall St. or the big banks... Everything will change dramatically, for better or worse.


Ripped Chunk's picture

"Everything is now calculated around "surviving" the mid-term elections, and nothing else"


snowball777's picture

I am not Travis, I assure you.

Nice Nazi reference with the long knives, though.

B9K9's picture

The conceit of every generation is the unfounded belief that their experiences are unique. What has happened before will happen again, for the simple reason that history is nothing more than an illustration of human emotions writ large.

This country is riven by racial, ethnic, generational, regional & class distinctions. The reason Ben has carte blanche ability to circumvent Constitutional restrictions is the realization of what is going to happen when the party ends.

Long knives will be the least of it.

SWRichmond's picture

The conceit of every generation is the unfounded belief that their experiences are unique.

Amen, brother.  Even those who have studied history are doomed to repeat it if they are surrounded by those who have not.

mtomato2's picture

Few seem to understand that:

   -borrowing more than you can pay back

   -consuming more than you are willing to produce

   -absorbing all the resources in your immediate

     environment without reinvesting in that same environment

   -considering fiscal and monetary policy to be political instruments


   -the basic, underlying greed innate in human nature,


All lead us to an unstoppable, ineveitable end:  Total cyclical destruction and renewal.  On every scale.


You say:  "yes, but it's not the end of the world..."

I say:  "it depends on what you mean by "end of the world...'"



I am NOT Chumbawumba, but sometimes wish I was.



Mako's picture

B9K9, nice posts.

"We have met the enemy and he is us"

Double down's picture

I think the economy handles contraction quite well.  All those monetary medicines slows down the contraction but they remain in the system.   What will get us is the side effects of these medicines at the point of recovery.

A double down

20smoney's picture

My question is how many real fiscal conservatives get elected vs. typical Republicans?  Unless we get a sweep of Rand Paul types (which I doubt), will they really clamp down on policies like QE while the market crashes?  You have to have balls of steel and insane conviction to stand by and "do nothing" while the economy deflates, which would surely be ugly (yet necessary).  I just don't see it.  Thoughts?

B9K9's picture

When people are diagnosed with lung cancer, doctors typically operate to either remove infected tissue or even complete lungs. While it usually doesn't prevent an eventual demise, the fact that patients are willing to undertake such radical procedures in a last ditch attempt at survival is a lesson all should learn.

A lot of ZH readers, and apparently writers, analysts & managers, are still operating under a post-WWII paradigm where economic growth is a normal & logical course of action. But it's all fiction - the Fed and CBs invented & perfected a credit leveraged, asset inflation game - it's their baby, and they're willing to do anything in a mad attempt at preserving the status quo. The government was co-opted and enjoyed the tremendous power, prestige & riches which were bestowed on those who allowed & enabled the game to continue uninterrupted.

But there is no way out of this trap; it really is simple mathematics. Hence, the frustation Mako and others sometimes express. Compound interest, exponents, entropy, declining marginal return, resource depletion - these are all terms everyone should learn and understand if they are to have a clear picture of where we're going.

Hence the analogy above - there isn't any choice. Slash & burn is going to be the option taken because there aren't any others.

snowball777's picture

How many doctors remove a lung without anaesthetic?

ColonelCooper's picture

Yeah, but in this case, we can't live on one lung, and we're too weak to handle the anaesthetic.

tony bonn's picture

republicans gained control of the house in 1994 and for 15 long years they spent exactly as democrats spent....fiscal conservatives my can't elect a majority of fiscal conservatives....besides democrats and republicans are the same and controlled by the same dark powers....

standing by and doing nothing would be the correct policy option....deflation is a sign of correction when followed by inflation...

chet's picture

There is no way enough "real fiscal conservatives" get elected to steer fiscal policy after November.  They will be a rump faction in Congress, with a Democratic President.  It's a long shot for the GOP to even regain the majority.

The Tea Party's excitement will be quickly tempered in the next few months as their candidates get onto the Big Boy stage of politics and have to appeal to the whole electorate.

Sucks, but true.

hound dog vigilante's picture

I see it.  I see it everywhere.  November is going to be an incument bloodbath.

I see "tea party"-type disgust coming from the Right and from the Left. Long-standing party apparatus at the local and state levels are being over-run by activists. This trend is gaining momentum.

Not sure how anyone could witness the primary & special election season (thus far) and 'not see' the groundswell of activism/disgust/anger/passion that is overwhelming the status quo.

Bennett - incumbant senator dumped by his own state party in a primary.

Spector - incumbant seator dumped by both state parties.

Lincoln - incumbant will soon be dumped by state party via run-off.

Mass. - "Kennedy seat" won by independant conservative, easily defeating establishment choice.

Kent. - independant conservative easily defeats establishment choice, now favorite to take senate seat.


Plenty to "see", IMO, and there's more anti-establishment upheaval coming...


taraxias's picture

Who are these "fiscal conservatives" you speak of?

All politicians are sons and daughters of the same whore mother. When the deflation realization sets in, THEY will all be begging Uncle Ben to set the printing presses to warp speed.

Fiscal conservatives my arse.

SWRichmond's picture

THEY will all be begging Uncle Ben to set the printing presses to warp speed.

But we all know where that leads, don't we?  It won't work because it can't work.  Nothing of value comes from the output of a printing press.  At some point, we must populate the political system with genuine fiscal conservatives.  There is no alternative.  Is there?  Tell me what it is.

Raymond K Hassel's picture

It will work - and it will work best at precisely that point that it breaks - most likely with paper money being properly revalued.  At that point, the lumps will have to be taken and they will be taken by the dumb money, therefore, real capital will be in the hands of the smart money which is as it should be - great place for the world to move forward from.  Which side of the divide we find ourselves on, time will tell, but the broken system will eventually allocate productive means into those hands who are clearly most capable. 

legerde's picture

I want to believe you.  But I guess we may differ on the definition of "most capable".   I am concerned that the people responsible know exactly what they are doing and are positioning themselves for the other side right now.

Do you mean most capable of "construction of capital" or most capable of "political control"?

Forgive me... I'm reading Atlas Shrugged.  :)

chet's picture

As Raymond says, the system will have to break first.  Seriously break.  Then hopefully, we still have a democracy left, and then we will elect people who are serious about doing things in a different way.

Ripped Chunk's picture

"Who are these "fiscal conservatives" you speak of?"

There are a number of them out there. They were unpopular for a long time.

You will see a conversion/emergence of candidates who (suddenly) claim to be "fiscal conservatives" because these filthy vermin WILL DO ANYTHING TO GET ELECTED OR RE-ELECTED.



BobWatNorCal's picture

"...the collapse can be publicly blamed on the fiscal conservatives.."

That plan would seem to be working in England.

Brown is took the economy into the ditch,

but Cameron will be associated with the crash.

Lux Fiat's picture

Yes, I expect that the MSM will start laying the subtle groundwork to place blame for the coming debacle at the feet of the Tea Party and Co. and discredit the opposition.  Nevermind that this is a problem that has been decades in the making.

I heard Bob say deflation, and then potentially inflation, depending on what the Fed and other CBs do, and how it is received in the market.  Reminds me of iTulip's ka-poom theory.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Agreed.  Ka-poom.  my own personal forecast is for a $5T Fed balance sheet sometime in 2012.  There is no other way.

Lux Fiat's picture

"Thereis no other way."   Interesting comment.  Would you care to elaborate on that, and hopefully educate myself and other ZHers in the process?

ThreeTrees's picture

If QE stops one of the biggest sources of demand for financial products disappears and the market dies (faster).  If the asset side of the bank's balance sheets starts imploding again in earnest, faster than they can raise capital prop trading,  then it's 2008 all over again except the reserve chute has already been pulled.

They will print until they can't.

Hulk's picture

Faber called the march 09 low exactly....

FEDbuster's picture

Faber "called" the March 09 low, too.  Faber contends (confirmed by Euro Zones recent trillion dollar bailout) that central banksters led by Benron, will continue to print when any perceived crisis pops up.  The "Bernanke Put" is still in play against the credit collapse.

financeguru500's picture

I don't believe Faber as well as Schiff had realized the extent to which the U.S. could manipulate the system (i.e. purchasing their own treasury bonds through mystery direct bidders to keep the dollar valuable as well as allow for endless spending)


I think we should all be concerned by the fact that weekly treasury sales are now over $100 billion but I don't believe there will be anything that can cause a drop in the dollar because the mystery bidders now control the majority of the bonds. At this point, playing the stock market as well as making predictions on the dollar are complete guesses because TPTB control the system. Expect that when the sytem does start to come crashing down the Rothschild owned World Bank will be right there to issue a new world currency.

Spitzer's picture

You are right but Schiff doesn't claim to be a trader, niether does Eric Sprott. Look at these guys 10 year calls. That is where they make their hay.

Faber is both, he runs that Fundmymutualfund blog where he tries to make trade calls but I don't follow it.

gmrpeabody's picture

What...Faber and TraderMark are the same guy?

That IS news.

Spitzer's picture

I don't know, I just assumed that the author of the daily market wrap on Europac was Marc because Faber and Schiff are buddies. Maybe your right, I don't fuckin know.


side from being a daily contributor to Euro Pacific Capital, Mark also maintains the website Fund My Mutual Fund.

Il Duce's picture

" Pretty much every trading desk in the world reads him."


Computers don't read.

TonyV's picture

And how many calls has he made where he actually missed?