Bob (Janjuah)'s World Is Back, And It Is (Long-Term) Bearish As Always

Tyler Durden's picture

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slaughterer's picture

Bob's world seems reasonable to me: after the front-running risk-off phase before QE2 ends (already completed), there will be a risk-on phase after it ends (starting last week) to mirror the same trends at the beginning of QE2 last fall/winter.   What is missing is the outlook for the earnings season directly in front of us.

Popo's picture

QE3 must see the Fed supporting directly the real economy and real assets.   So far QE2 is not perceived to have helped either real assets or the real economy, and in an election year the real economy and real assets – rather than pumped-up paper assets held largely by the elite and pumped-up commodity prices which benefit largely foreign suppliers and producers – will be all that matters.

 

And this means what Bob?   Specifically what "real (non paper) assets"  can the Fed support, that don't just support the "elite" as you said?    Please tell me you don't mean housing...

 If you mean that the Fed must directly support the productive capacity of the USA,  then that's a wonderful dream but unfortunately central bankers have zero ability to do such things, and never have.   Bernanke has one button,  marked "liquidity".  It's all he's got.   There are no tools at the Fed's disposal that actually support the economy other than liquidity.  And as we've seen -- liquidity chases yield -- and yield exists in equities, in EM's and in commodities.   The Fed's bullets are useless at this point and yet,  there's pressure on Bernanke to do something.   He'll hem and haw,  given that QE2 was widely seen as a failure -- but eventually he'll re-label his old tired saw as something brilliant and new, and QE3 will begin.    

 

 

 

 

 

SheepDog-One's picture

Bens printing press can only create worthless paper to be shuffled, he's powerless to print an economy.

SheepDog-One's picture

In the new world of making it up as we go, no idea what we'll do next, it all fits tight repeatable patterns.

bania's picture

one flew over's the cuckoo's nest (short term), bitchez.

Yen Cross's picture

  Jack Nicholson, is water to the Inland empire. Look @ me! Lakers fans!

Yen Cross's picture

 Trading is an 'ART'!   Trading is not a card [Game].

Yen Cross's picture

  I'm going (coconut) on you whimps!

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea Bob, just set the 'bull target' to past all-time highs, no matter we're officially in economic recession.
'Long term bearish, but in the mean time, set the dials for new record market highs' Yea sure, you go buy it then Bob.
Far as Im concerned if Bob or any other analyst is telling us to confidently buy, he's hitting the sell button, like all the insiders.

gaoptimize's picture

I just can't see how the dollar strengthens when the Treasury has to issue so much debt so quickly in Aug and Sep.  How do failed bond auctions not lead to further weakening of the dollar?

SheepDog-One's picture

Typical analyst mumbo-jumbo...'While we're quite bearish 'long term', I expect to see a market double before Fall'
Yea whatever Bob, if its so good, you drink it.

Yen Cross's picture

  I'll pay you if  (dxy) can crack 75 today!

Yen Cross's picture

  I have a Jet to catch.

HitTheFan's picture

No one can predict the future, Bob is just giving his best guesses.

 

Short-term who knows, longer-term we all know the shit must hit the fan again pretty soon.

SheepDog-One's picture

Heres what makes no sense about these kind of analyst calls- He expects markets to rise now, but expects to see a 'meaningfull sell-off' more towards the fall. So who are they going to sell to higher? What he should be saying is markets are on crack and overvalued, and soon all this overvalued paper will have to take a big hair cut.

qussl3's picture

How often have we ever had a holiday selloff?

The most important consumer season in a 70% consumption economy, and the rug is going to be pulled going into it?

Right.

SheepDog-One's picture

Right.
Well theres always some upcoming event preventing reality from entering the picture in any way.