Bob "The Skeptical Strategist" Janjuah Expects A 10% Market Correction

Tyler Durden's picture

Bob Janjuah was interviewed by Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker earlier in which the famous former RBS and now Nomura contrarian who predicted the 2008 crash shares his "skeptically strategic" and tactical outlook on the market: in a nutshell he joins technicians such as Tom DeMark in calling for a 10% correction in the market. Among the three key themes underlying his skeptical views are the following: i) Asia slow down (hard or soft) which will have implications on US markets; ii) Is Europe closer to the endgame; and iii) the US recovery, and the question of how sustainable it is especially following the elimination of the ES boost courtesy of now-daily POMO operations. In terms of asset allocations, Janjuah believes that a reallocation out of EM and into DM makes sense (time for reverse reverse decoupling already?). And just to clarify what Bob's personal position is, for those who may have missed his last two years of letters and memos, he says "I think we are going to have a deeper and harder slowdown in Asia, I think the European situation is closer to the endgame, my biggest doubt is on the US recovery...I think in Q2 and Q3 the grow slowly weakens, and much like last year we are going to be looking for QE3, and my concern is that the hurdle rate for further policy, fiscal and monetary, is much much higher."

As for the question of what Bob sees the biggest beta driver in the world right now, the EUR doing in the future (with the entire market trading in lockstep with the European currency), he gives a very pragmatic answer: "The Euro will either be the next reserve currency... or it won't." His personal view: "I am more optimistic today than I was two months ago."

Lastly, now that everyone seems to have awoken and realized that the only reason the stock market is where it is is due to the Fed's intervention in capital markets, Bob says that absent QE2, the S&P would have ended 2010 "closer to 1,000 than 1,200." Then go ahead and back out QE Lite, and QE 1, and what does one get.... As Schtazker points out: "Effectively the Fed was the bid. If the Fed's hadn't been in the market, flooding investors with liquidity giving them cash to buy risk assets, the S&P would have declined." Finally people get how central planning works...

In terms of biggest risks, Janjuah says the i) "melt up" is the biggest risk, becase "we are building a bubble"; ii) jobs in the US are number two (one more month... just one more month we promise and we will have jobs growth... ignore all the other 18 consecutive months this has been said before), and iii) is the bond bull market over - when do rising bond yields negate and reverse the "Tepper" trade?

Much more in the full interview.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Hedgetard55's picture

Hawaii Gov could not find a birth certificate for Barry.

Army LCOL remains in jail for doubting Obama's citizenship. What happens if he turns out to be correct?


Gaston's picture

Hard to think.... With the Fed pumping the ES (S&P 500 futures) with an endless supply of fiat dollars..... I dont see it happening, and 10%????? thats being way to modest.... try 15%.....

I think were going to break out of 1300 this week.... This is it.... Next time this market goes down, God help us.... I think the next big catalyst will be GG.....

plocequ1's picture

This is just one man with one opinion that tries to show off  his Harvard  degree in economics. The fed will keep the market going to the moon. Im a dumb fuck with no Degree and no charts. I am nothing. It really doesn't take much to figure it out. Just common sense.

SheepDog-One's picture

Well it certainly will be interesting watching everyone running around like chickens with their heads cut off again, whenever 'it' happens some morning, or overnite when Asia market peg low and stay there.

RobotTrader's picture

I wish these guys would stop coming out and predicting mini-crashes, flash crashes, corrections, etc.

Then the market would have a fighting chance of going down.

But with so many predicting it, the market keeps skying higher and higher.

plocequ1's picture

Im with you. Its getting annoying. Blah, Blah Blah. Dow up 72. Blah..

SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone slowly capitulating and easing into the 'dont fight the FED, DOW 20,000 comin soon' trade, the more it tells me all will be wiped out in an instant. Dance with the devil all nite, but dont come crying when you get 3rd degree burns, you should have known better.

Minyan Vince's picture

I very much concur RT...we'll see, there are a lot of exhaustion warning signs out there but who knows with everyone expecting it

JW n FL's picture

buy the new lows in europe... is what this means. for anyone who is confused...

Sudden Debt's picture

I'm from Europe and let me tell you: YOU HAVE TO BE NUTS TO BUY EURO STOCKS. They are WAY overpriced and move like shit.

JW n FL's picture

sorry... the euro, as in euro the dollar euro...

Agent P's picture

Calling for a 10% correction after the run we've had isn't exactly going out on a limb.

JW n FL's picture

at which point, do you think? the circut breakers will let it go any lower?

SheepDog-One's picture

He's going out on a limb 24 inches in diameter and 2 feet off the ground here.

RobotTrader's picture

Here is what I'm talking about.

Lots of top picking going on today.

alien-IQ's picture

the market is just trading tick for tick with the dollar decline. there is no other mystery to this and no point in trying to invent one. how many times have we seen this already?: every time the market looks weak, shank the dollar. problem solved...of course, every solution breads a new problem...but the bernank does not care about the problems of the many only the wealth of the few.

welcome to Amerika.

Prof Gulliver's picture

These "strategists" have been calling for 10 percent corrections every week since Dow hit 10K in August. It's up a relentless 20 percent since. When the Dow hits 20K, Janjuah and the rest will still call for a 10 percent correction. And when the Dow falls from 20K to 18K, they'll all heap praise on themselves for their great "strategic" predictions. Bunch of useless fools, every one of them. 

RobotTrader's picture

Another thing.

Guess what the two best performing groups are in 2011?

Solar stocks and PIIGS banks.  Yep the absolute "worst of the worst" is on fire.

And the worst performer is metals and mining.

Seems like if the market were to go down, the worst sectors would be underperforming.

blackbox's picture

GS added FSLR to conviction buy list hence solars on fire today (and GS selling into it)

thepigman's picture

Those are the only places that anyone's

short, Robo

Cdad's picture


Either you are being disingenuous, or you don't know what you are talking about.  The Worst of the Worst stocks rally last...on short covering.  This usually marks the end of a rally.  And I add "usually" only because of Banana Ben Bernanke...otherwise I would say this marks the end of a rally.


alter ego's picture

Robo works for the Big Squid or maybe he is a

little misguided, or he can't see reality.

I think he should read Taleb's black swan and I

say this because he fits in the type of guy who

acts like the "turkey" instead of the "butcher".

He will find that reality is going to destroy all

those sand castle's portfolio built on Fed's

quantitative easing.

I rather hold my gains and loose a little bit

everyday and win big when the s.. hits the fan

instead that winning everyday and one day

loose it all.


SheepDog-One's picture

Comical how everyone already has 2011 in the bag, 'All is well until maybe Q3, where we might get a 10% "correction", yea whatever my ass show me the correction, these guys are all full of crap and 'going out on a limb' thats only 2 feet off the ground and 24 inches in diameter. And BTW 10% aint SHIT!

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

cdad, robo is like a sperm whale spouting in the ocean. he has no idea what he believes, nor is he consistent from post to post. i've read him for some time. he's all of 30% invested, scared to death he'll lose money even as he mocks bears. last week he was a pm bull, bear and bull again in successive posts. amazingly, there are folks here that actually believe him wise.

Spitzer's picture

I think the point Robo is trying to get across is that the market is one big fucked up unpredictable mess.

thats what i gather

equity_momo's picture

Not true.  Sounds like late cycle rotation. When the quality names are lagging and the junk is being bought in the search for yield "buy the dog" mentaility , you know youre close to the top.

Theres alot of stealth distribution going on. If you look beyond the cookie cutter charts you will see it.

Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

"and much like last year we are going to be looking for QE3, and my concern is that the hurdle rate for further policy, fiscal and monetary, is much much higher."

How can there be any doubt?The Fed runs the show now,congress are mere bit players.They recently announced their plan to avoid going bust - just transfer the losses to the Treasury i.e the US taxpayer,so no matter how infinitessimally huge the losses get they won't be liable,apart from a few obscure web sites and ZH this did not get any main stream media coverage,and even if it did most sheeple would not even be able to grasp the significance of it. 

As this entire mess unfolds,the actions of the Fed become bolder and bolder,as each policy move or announcement is now made,it is seemingly greeted with an increasingly depressed atmosphere of fatalism.Nobody even queastions their actions anymore..QEX coming as and when required.

buzzsaw99's picture

Captain Effing Obvious.

Horatio Beanblower's picture

Hard to believe?


"A Co Monaghan (that's in Ireland, for the uninitiated) shopkeeper - who had never before been involved in property development - was given a loan of €32m to build a shopping centre, the Commercial Court has heard.

The Commercial Court heard that Zurich Bank is seeking the repayment of the money from Jim McConnon of Main Street in Castleblayney Co Monaghan.

The court heard that Mr McConnon built Castleblayney Shopping Centre, but has had difficulty letting all the units in the centre and could not repay the money."


The Austrian Business Cycle Theory springs to mind.

Dr. Porkchop's picture

"..I think in Q2 and Q3 the grow slowly weakens,..."

That should be QE2 and QE3

cougar_w's picture

Good catch. They will overlap almost perfectly.

Gaston's picture check it out, APMEX SELLING 100 OUNCE JOHNSON MATTHEY BARS FOR 1 cent an ounce over spot..... LOL, I think they have a glitch on their site.....

cougar_w's picture

10% correction huh? So he's going to BTFD at that point? I wanna see that.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Jan Hoohah!
Feb Oh nose!
Mar The Ides Bite! Ouch!
APR Going sky high.

In flames. I think Da Bears are too afraid to really call it, having been wronged by the FED every time they wake up a bit.

Someone made a great comment on my blog, bears repeating:

I detest any comment like “bears have to get going”. Bears can only use gravity, not rocket launchers.


pat53's picture

This is EXACTLY why the markets will keep going higher. Air waves and press are filled to the brim with morons calling for an immediate and sharp correction.... see you at SPX 1350 in a few months ... LOL

SheepDog-One's picture

A 'sharp correction' is 10% in a 40% overvalued market? Thats nothing but bullshit...there wont be any 10% correction there will be a total blowout of markets when the shit hits then fan suddenly 1 morning and no one will be abe to do anything about it! As soon as all the suckers are onboard that they can get, theyll pull the rug out leaving all the bagholders sucking paddy water. And I see that time as near, look around even all the bears are saying this just goes on forever, 100 points on the DOW daily to infinity as the bears all capitulate and say 'may as well join em if you cant beat em'...time draws near.

pat53's picture

LOL, this is the same bullshit you were spewing at SPX 1050, when I told you it was going to 1100, and then at 1100 when I told you it was going to 1150, and then at 1150 when I told you it was going to 1200.....etc, etc,   Bottom line, is that you and all the doomers have been obliterated trying to fight the FED, instead of making money riding along. If you're that stupid you deserve to lose everything. WAKE UP ... LOL

SheepDog-One's picture

OH told me all that...problem is since you 'schooled me'  with all your FED wisdom Ive been putting it all into my farm land and more livestock which is up WAY more than your BS stocks. Good luck with your stocks which will be wiped completely out one morning soon genius.

Spitzer's picture



scratch_and_sniff's picture

If he keeps saying Europe is closer to the endgame, he just might be right one he's shitting himself incase the big cuddly bear Gerry Adam's gets in, that's too funny. Get the Shinners in and lets default this bitch!

Xibalba's picture

The Treasury, achem...I mean the Fed, will never let that happen.  No matter what.