BofA Expects Libya Oil Production To Shut Down Completely

Tyler Durden's picture

And some more variables to add to the total confusion in everything, from Reuters:

Oil production in Libya is expected to shut down completely and could be lost for a prolonged period of time, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Thursday.

"We expect Libyan production to be shut down completely and we might lose sweet crudes from Libya for a prolonged period of time," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Sabine Schels told Reuters.

Schels said that the world faced the prospect of real supply shock in which the loss of 1.6 million barrels per day of sweet oil could potentially trigger a steep rise in prices and force a sharp reduction in demand to balance the system.

"Some of the supply can be replaced with Saudi light crude and some from SPR, but if the disruption is prolonged, we will need demand to drop to balance the system," Schels said.

The bank is currently discussing scenarios and outlooks, and will publish a report on its findings in the coming days.

"We already faced a demand shock last year with global demand increasing by 2.8 million bpd and on top of that, what we have now is a real supply shock," Schels said.

"In a price shock scenario whereby we lose 1.6 million bpd, the rise in prices can be a lot greater than in the case of a demand shock. "



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Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Always had respect for  the Elite in the sense that they not only socially stigmatized the word 'Conspiracy Theory' but also were able to make it into an umbrella term describing everything 'outside the mainstream'.

Great commenting as usual, Cog.

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute "The Elephant in the Room":

We have all heard the expression at one time or another. An uncomfortable fact that every one is (at least dimly) aware of, yet is not spoken of. When discussing the global economy, the turmoil and the unrest the world is experiencing the elephant in the room is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve. The Fed (and other central banks) have unleashed the most recent spate of food inflation on the world through their ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and use of ‘quantitative easing’ (which simply put, is money printing).

Money that would have been kept in savings accounts has been withdrawn (because it earns no interest) and invested largely in stocks, and commodities. On top of that, more money has been conjured into existence, without an increase in real economic activity to accompany it, leaving a larger amount of money chasing the same pile of goods and services. The result, obviously, is a loss of purchasing power, as each newly conjured dollar buys less than the one before it.

Ben Bernanke has come out and attempted to justify his actions, but what has been lost in all his posturing? That the criticism of his policies are legitimate!

daybyday's picture

i guess they are stuck in some longs from 103.00...

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

wow, what a reliable source

101 years and counting's picture

as the world swims in excess oil (just look at inventories) as demand never recovered, we have all these BS reports coming out.  in the US, oil imports are down 900K barrels/day in just the last 2 weeks.  with Libya down 500-750K, the world is still "up" 150-400K barrels.  of course, ZH wouldnt dare mention that as they get off watching oil prices soar.



Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

dude, you get the ZH facepalm award of the day.


Would anyone in the class like to explain why 101 years is wrong?

Explanations from the rest of the class in 3..2..1


Oh and I'll come back and do it, if others are too annoyed to make the effort.

EscapeKey's picture

I would, but I'm too busy swimming in sweet, sweet crude.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Definitely looks like the cat is out of the bag. Pandora's box is open.

And today, 666 days from 12-21-12.

Gadfly possibly shot?

Fascinating, eh?


FreeMoney Bernie's picture

this needs to appear on Glenn beck's chalk board.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Did they place buys right after the rumor?

Ancona's picture

I'm more worried about contagion spreading to Saudi Arabia than I am about losing a million and a half barrels of sweet crude from Libya. Although the lost production will jack oil prices, think of what a revolution in S.A. would mean.

DosZap's picture

That oil only 3% comes here.

I agree we cannot allow The Saudis to lose it.

Ackmajagginofff would have a straight shot alll the way across.

Ancona's picture

Actually, I think Ahmadinnerjacket is stirring this pot

NOTW777's picture

well who hear thinks things just go back to normal - the whole region is in an uproar and the dollar is dumping

falak pema's picture

Don't panick, there is oil in the Arctic. We are waiting for the seals and polar bears to vote before drilling starts in earnest. On all sides of the circle.

zeek's picture least until BoA gets their shorts in place...

cougar_w's picture

This would be a nice test of Saudi excess capacity. If they have any, we'll see it. If they don't we'll be talking more about "peak oil" in the coming weeks and months.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Considering the water cut in many of their wells is approaching 70% (or so the rumor goes) it's more likely they'll be shipping colored water rather than crude.

cougar_w's picture

If they ship it, we'll buy it. I'm sure their logic will be "you pay us in fake money, so we'll ship you fake oil."

It's all illusions anyway.

iDealMeat's picture


I bet it's more so sewage. Water is to valuable to cut oil with.

So....  cut it with shit..


Flakmeister's picture

Actually it is salt water pumped from the Gulf and injected....

EscapeKey's picture

THAT doesn't matter. Someone worked out how to increase agricultural yields in FarmVille by 5%, so now we won't starve.

FreeMoney Bernie's picture

My brothers the Dean at ESPNU let me know if your kids need a scholarship

FreeMoney Bernie's picture

My brother is the Dean at ESPNU let me know if your kids need a scholarship

DosZap's picture

Ex Pus, er POTUS Clinton finally said ONE thing I afree with him on, Heads Up, "We are usuing too much food for Fuel".

No shit Sherlock?,take your choice starve the world or drive more.

I take door #1.

gabeh73's picture

So Lindsey Williams sources predictions are on track. I am going to listen to some more Alex Jones.

plocequ1's picture

Charlie Sheen is on now

EscapeKey's picture

Lindsey Williams' sources are bull. Yeah, he probably knew Ken Fromm, but all his information these days is basically just statistically likely information pushed from an angle of hyperbole, in order to sell fucking CDs/DVDs.

He started yapping about Bakken yesterday, as if that's some sort of new discovery. He even admitted not to be a petroleum geologist, yet he kept going on about Bakken as if it was some sort of miracle cure to the worlds oil problems.

John McCloy's picture

I like Alex and love his dedication but I believe Williams is full of shit.
Alex needs to just stay on the rails a little and let his guests speak. At times he comes of as too congratulatory but his heart and mind are in the right place.
As for 9/11..anyone who has seen the amount of money and protection that goes into Wall Street interests should realize our govt could not be behind an attack that places Wall Street and the money machine in danger. I'm not saying the official story is accurate whatsoever but Bush and Cheney had no idea.
Everything else Alex is right on mark. Maybe not having David Icke on either would be beneficial.

LFMayor's picture

oh man, now you've up and done it.  the troothers are gonna be here any minute, flinging shit up, down and sideways.

John McCloy's picture

   Well I am not going to say information was not suppressed and that the incident involving WTC 7 jives because there are many oddities. I could even entertain a fringe wing that existed in our government since JFK was killed may have had something to do with this but the primary elitists could not have been behind these events. Also the London bombing has much more compelling evidence toward government involvement. 

    I simply could not see them willing to take the risk to Wall Street only a few blocks away considering all of the pampering we see discuss here on ZH day in and day out. 

Clycntct's picture

I would just like to say record profits on wall street.

Bonuses Beatichez

acrabbe's picture

They don't think like you. They aren't sheep who lay down to bed with wolves, or lemmings who follow eac other over cliffs, or miseducated, brainwashed automatons who are unaware of their controlled existence... ever meet a psychopath/sociopath? it's not like in the movies kid...

pods's picture

The moneychangers' primary mission is to increase debt. So what if a couple thousand people die?  

Wall street means nothing to them.  Merely a place.  Their power increases by increasing debt and bankrupting sovereigns.  

They win because you cannot contemplate how indifferent they can be to civilized society or moral rules.  

With the events of that day, the debt orgy that ensued enriched them more than enough to make up for any mental anguish any of them had.


solgundy's picture

Lindsey Williams is a lunatic,,, at least my ouija board says that

kentfinance's picture

what? are they about to foreclose on the property assets?

bullionbaron's picture

Looks like this situation could very well turn into an energy crisis!

Will Gold react the same to the events of the 1979 crisis?

January 3rd 1978 - Gold $169
Iranian Revolution
Energy Crisis
January 21st 1980 - Gold $850

January 3rd 2011 - Gold $1411
Middle East/North African Revolution
Energy Crisis?
January 21st 2013 - Gold $7000?

DosZap's picture

Here comes even and odd again............that's a real ball buster if you haven't lived it.

NOTW777's picture

obama job competitiveness a SNL skit - immelt, trumka and chenault -

next week they announce addition of spike lee, rev wright and bill ayers

competitive with whom

rayban's picture

This report contributed to this morning spike during the early hours of European trading. However, today has formed a bearish key reversal day for the oil complex, and a likely close on the highs for the equities. The BTFD crowd will likely be rewarded after two days of heavy battering.... and just before another major sell/off to come in the next few days...

vas deferens's picture

I would buy calls if everything out of BofA was not a lie.

PulauHantu29's picture

ME tensions and unrest are just beginning. We still have several billion in SE Asia to go.

Saxxon's picture

I'm with Pulau on this.  This great unwind has just shifted to second gear; three more to go.

Certainly the POTUS will appear soon, extending his hands palms-down out over the roiling, increasingly unwashed masses, and with his most resonant voice pronounce that everything is going to be OK.

malikai's picture

I propose theme music for the next 6 months.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

This one is in my head a lot.

As I probe the depths, I can't help but just feel sad about all this shit.  What the fuck are we, really?

Scottj88's picture

Inflationary times coming...

150$ then 200$ oil... then oil will be opened in the US....

Lindsey Williams is a good source on this stuff as of lately...

DosZap's picture

Knowing what they say they KNOW, why haven't we been exploring and drilling likes SOB's for the last 10yrs, and why haven't we built any new refineries in 30 yrs, and why haven't we been building nuclear plants out the azz?.

Now, we are too broke to do it.

Thanks you Green helped screw us all.We owe you a great debt of gratitude, that new rope would take care of.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, clearly the "green movement" had any say it in whatsoever.


Oh regional Indian's picture

Dos, take a gander (or a goose) at this article. Why are they all so keen to sell?