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BofA Looking At Alcoa And Not Liking What It Sees, Cuts EPS, Keeps Sell Rating

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For what it's worth, here is the take of BofA's Kuni Chen on Alcoa, with a very surprising bearish read through: "We reduce 2010E EPS from $0.50/sh to $0.31/sh. Lower EPS outlook is driven by seq lower metal prices and seasonal demand. We are using avg 3Q aluminum price of $0.88/lb in our model. Our low-end estimate for 2011 is based on a $0.95/lb metal price. We lower our PO to $11/sh as lower 2H EPS impacts year end net debt position. The implications of Alcoa’s quarter may be a negative for Century Aluminum and Noranda Aluminum as the Street revises down estimates on lower metal prices." Not surprisingly, it is AA, KALU and NOR that are surging as the HFTs are once again being drawn to some Lorenz Attractor with the firm push of the PDs and the FED. Of course, BofA's most recent cut simply means that when AA posts 2010 EPS of $0.310000001, the stock will promptly hit infinity.

 

 

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Tue, 07/13/2010 - 09:59 | 466139 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yes, but the expectation was for $0.30 / share.  A 'beat'.  Let's move on.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:00 | 466140 Muir
Muir's picture

This is unAmerican.

And will not stand!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:00 | 466141 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

How long until the algos read this headline and flip the pointer from '+' to '-'?  oh, wait....its already started!!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:01 | 466144 Chemba
Chemba's picture

typical sell side analyst.  He is "bearish", and yet he has an $11 price target, which means your upside on his call is 0.0%.

If he is really bearish and thinks that AA is a "sell", then his price target ought be at least 25% lower than present market prices

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:12 | 466156 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Even if AA closes negative, by noon the bulls will have moved on to the oh-so-positive earnings report upcoming for INTC, a stock that hasn't moved since 1997, where lots of people bought lots o'higher. And AAPL giving up the ghost - no problem. Nothing to see here people, we can move on...

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:16 | 466166 AlienTrader
AlienTrader's picture

One thing is for certain, shorts are getting slaughtered today, and the charts seem to resemble june-july 2009 price action. Do not be surprised if we will see DOW 12.000, on low volume in a couple of months.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:29 | 466184 docj
docj's picture

Sure looks that way.  The Fraud will continue... until one day it can't.

And is ever that day - and many to follow - going to suck out loud.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:34 | 466189 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the moves up were a little bigger last year, but I see the same stuff

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:21 | 466175 hellboy
hellboy's picture

The second time I read "Lorenz Attractor" on ZH today!! My physics degree is actually worth something!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:38 | 466196 luster
luster's picture

Old but interesting.

 

"I have known more people whose lives have been ruined by getting a Ph.D. in physics than by drugs."

 

http://wuphys.wustl.edu/~katz/scientist.html?dupe=with_honor

 

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:52 | 466349 hellboy
hellboy's picture

well, thank god I don't have a PhD!

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:40 | 466643 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Ph D........

Poor horny desperate

pretty hard dick

player hater degree

permanent head damage

 

Yep, I experienced them all.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 14:37 | 466819 matthylland
matthylland's picture

just graduated with a B.S. in physics a year ago. Everyone is calling me an idiot not going to grad school. Thanks, now I don't feel so bad. Interesting take by him.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:25 | 466180 SDRII
SDRII's picture

But the shills over at Clusterstock say posco upping its forecast. What they left out is that the company missed estimates, that iron ore spot down 15th day and China's Baoshan (and China Steel) cutting prices another 4% for 2nd month. One wonders whether keeping some pump monkeys on the staff over there is part of his arrangement

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:26 | 466182 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

This is all you need to know!!!

 

In April, the The Wall Street Journal examined data from the Federal Reserve bank of New York and found 18 banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS - News), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS - News) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM - News) masked debt levels in the five quarters ending in March.

The Journal found the banks "understated the debt levels used to fund securities trades by lowering them an average of 42% at the end of each of the past five quarterly periods, the data showed. The banks, which publicly release debt data each quarter, then boosted the debt levels in the middle of successive quarters."

Of course, like many Wall Street practices in the era of deregulation, all of the trades were perfectly legal, just as the "repo" accounting used by Lehman Brothers to hide its leverage exposure was legal — at least in the opinion of the U.K. attorneys they could get to approve the deals.

Lehman was hardly alone. Before, during and after the financial crisis, banks used countless accounting tricks, including off-balance sheet entities called special purpose vehicles, short-term repurchase agreements, securities that banks label "available for sale," and all varieties of "intent-based accounting."

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 10:41 | 466203 AlienTrader
AlienTrader's picture

The broad indices rise more than AA, the stock that supposedly caused the market surge. "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark."

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:05 | 466238 IE
IE's picture

That smell is the entire EU.

I guess we just have to understand that when expectations are set at zero - everything is a beat.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 11:08 | 466247 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

nothing matters

nothing matters

nothing matters

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 12:57 | 466519 Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

Now that Europe is out of the news, except for here on ZH. 

Will Gold follow Aluminum?

From what I can see, for this week Gold has recoupled with the USD.

So is Gold now just another commodity? What event will move it back into the spot light?

Mark Beck

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:28 | 466608 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Good Short entry  on MKts.  A gift.

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:38 | 466639 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

As warned about earlier, DOW/SP500 remains bullish for now ...

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

 

Tue, 07/13/2010 - 13:48 | 466661 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

actually he was analysing his own bank and this was his way of saying "don't buy BofA."

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herry's picture

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