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Bond Yields Back To May Levels, Stocks Still Living In Bubble
The capital rotation into bonds has started in earnest. In the meantime, a couple of robots are still trying to convince each other the equity bubble will be sustained in perpetuity by the Fed. SkyNet may soon be caught with its pants down.
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A liquidity bubble drives up prices of all assets.
The source of Greenspan's "conundrum".
More cores!
The Fed will pursue their failed policies to their ultimate conclusion - a destruction of the dollar and a balance of payments crisis the likes of which the world has never seen. They are actually forecasting goldilocks in the minutes that came out. Unreal.
Thanks to BP from the chicago Pit !
Tyler, does Skynet make soap?
The Fed has also being hurrying up on the MBS buying, which drives down Treasury yields.
NFB will be an interesting number . over/under is 250,000. my bets are on over (subject of course to GS releasing the number tomorrow afternoon).
ADP may not be deadly accurate (but it is arguably helpful in identifying the trend) lends credence to the over call.
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
interesting tape into the close today. has WOPR switched from suck to blow?
Man I love that movie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VptOUWC-Itc relevent part is at 3:25
Skynet's new clothes.
equities high on OBium !!
WWJCD? what would john connor do?
Sell, sell, sell! HAHAHA
He would send a robot back in time to kill the mofo who did this.
I'm not understanding the "rotation" into bonds, especially 30 yrs. Do people like the promise of freshly printed dollars years in the future at historically low yields? One look at the U.S. balance sheet and I say no way. You could just as easily have pointed out the "rotation" into gold today, which I understand a little better.
In a deflationary environment a 3.2% yield could be equal to an 8% or 10% real yield. Cash in the bank will have negative yield as it will be taxed as it is currently being proposed in Sweden.
as Rosie would say...."Juicy"
I guess I should ignore the fact that we've already essentially had a soft default, that I will likely get paid in freshly printed FRNs, that there is no way in hell taxing the populace will generate the needed income to pay the debts, that the currency I'm being paid in is supported by increasingly dubious quality assets, or that I will be buying into the face of a never ending supply of treasuries for the next 10 years.
Personally I have 5% gold 5% silver and 10% miners. The bulk of the rest is overseas
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
thats an interesting reference - so i shall conclude that stocks will rally from here as they did from May levels.
question: If Ben prints money (this fresh money backed by the taxpayer`s promise to pay the the bill in the future- which means tax increase) who is going to take credit to buy more crap....? Ponzi ponzi
question: If Ben prints money (this fresh money backed by the taxpayer`s promise to pay the the bill in the future- which means tax increase) who is going to take credit to buy more crap....? Ponzi ponzi
Higher demand in bonds drives yields down.
S&P hasn't made any positive moves today.
Financials are selling off. Energy stocks continue the sell off.
Mining stocks are in fantasy lala land.
Deflation is good for price of gold but not goldminers or other miners.
Cool, let's now wait and see how credit spreads
are going to move. Banks, instead of restructuring,
have been respeculating in risky markets. It would
be nice to see XLF moving below 13.10 in the
coming weeks. If we break that level, another
big sell off in financial stocks could take place.
I am of the mind that we are seeing a yield curve flattening much like we saw from '04 to '06. What that says to me is that the powers that be are in fact successfully re-flating the bubble. Commensurately that leads me to feel this is bullish for stocks.
Eventually I think this could lead to a inverted curve with all the joys that portends.
But as an aside, with Treasuries as the ultimate bubble, isn't a meaningful move into said asset class showing that both bonds AND stocks are "still living in the bubble"?
ps: soothing music for your soul - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQoasF5z3_Y
Outright panic into fixed income today sent yields crashing again today:
TNX broke the 200-day with force:
Man, this is going to really piss off Grandma, who's money market account is now earning a paltry 14 basis points.
Do not underestimate the penchant for these old timers to start gambling, especially when they see things like gold stocks go up 7% in one day.
Yes, gambling and rioting at thier town hall meetings.
They're probably refilling his online prescription for Viagra and he's getting all excited.
Pretty lucky guy at his age.
If I were a pension fund I'd buy the 30 yr at 4+% over Fascist Electric.
The tinnitus in my ears says "head fake!"
As in fertilize the shorts, start lawn mower..
My job pays me in dollars and I figure that is more than enough dollar exposure for me.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
26-year bear market in interest rates continues unabated.
Spot on, Robo. Looks like the US is about 12 years behind JGB Yield.
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpysin92.shtml#sin92
The stars seem to be aligning for a reversal. It also looks like we have the left shoulder and head in the index charts. I'm keeping my ammo dry until this bulls neck is officially broke.
Once DOW drops below 950-975 we will start to hear rumblings of second, or third, or fourth stimulus package, whatever number we are on this month.
absolutely correct kaiser....timed perfectly for the mid term congressional elections.
yeah looking at the TNX, somethin' real ugly is brewing, and someone knows it
keep shorting the stock market, esp XLF IYR
NFP -400K
Someone tell Kudlow to work the base of Bob Casey's cock, not just the tip. He is dangerous (Kudlow) to investors.
RT, what do you make the dual breakouts in gold n bonds today? As someone who's messed w/gold and gold stocks for 30 yrs, but isn't a missionary, I'd say the gold breakout was more powerful. Still I'm not sure how to square it w/the bond move, somthins gotta give.
The gold price may be involved with retail buying in China and the Bank weaknesses. Last March, gold cranked when Citicorp was on its knees at like 95 cents. Exceptional financial distress and system failure. When the Commercial Reals hit home, it's bank failure after bank failure all over again.
Somebody thinks the banks are blown and buying gold and buying inverse financial ETFs.
Or its another shorting trap.
+10 excellent
now I think: if madoff could keep his ponzi for decades, why couldn't the USG do so for even more time?
C'mon, we had huge move in Treasuries in past few days, yields are back to new normal (to desired levels) and we had drop in S&P of just 3,3%. You know 30yrs means 30 years to maturity so deflation will be present this year and maybe next but after that? It was never about equities (except for sentiment which is very important but not fundamental)it is about DEBT!
For example two years ago in CFA curriculum you had FNM and FRE as examples of riskless investments and then what happend?
SO GS made a call that by 2025 Chine will become No.1. world economy and if that happens what will be outcome for USD and 30yrs and 10yrs?