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Bonds Spooked By Fed Hike Rumor
Bonds getting a beat down after the following rumor has circulated:
medely report- hearing ny consultant reporting at least two fed members support raising rates next week....hearing it goes on to say fomc may launch a campaign in favour of exiting emergency policy but again the dovish members would not follow a serious intent
If this is more than a rumor it, of course, means the market rally is officially over.
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Oh, please. As if the Fed would do raise rates now.
Spot on. There's ZERO chance of the FED increasing rates. ZERO!!!!
hey, according to the fed, the recession is over, correct? if true, then they should raise rates. of course, they won't; unless they attempt a 25 pointer just to test the waters & send a bogusly symbolic message to our creditors overseas.
Well, I'm still seeing the same pattern in the stock market today. A downward channel is formed, then a miracle spike to completely wipe out each step of the channel.
This will be spun as "Talk of Fed Rate Hike More Proof of U.S. Economic Strength"
Exactly. "talk" being the important word. The meth smoking momentum traders are so pumped they can't help for fall for each head fake.
Good one!
Take out the papers and the trash
Or you don't get no spendin' cash
If you don't scrub that kitchen floor
You ain't gonna rock and roll no more
Yakety yak (don't talk back)
Yeah!
Fed Hike - whooo....oh yeah, what a knee slapper. What's next? They gonna drag out that ol' one about how someone captured Bin Laden?
I heard not only had they captured Bin Laden but they captured him with two PCs a Forex machine, going long the US dollar, with the other hand buying Berkshire, GE, GM, C, AIG, BAC, F, FNM, and FRE.
Oh, I forgot, he also had a television tuned into CNBC, chanting "Steve Liesman You are a genius and such a handsome man!", over and over again.
ROTFL!
Or how "the IMF is going to sell its Gold (again) to help the poor African countries".
LOL You mean the poor african countries that they have people panning grams and half grams and 1/10 grams for food, bread etc? So selling that gold helps them pay thier paper debts!!! LOL
Yeah, that's a good one. I think I had a GI Joe with a pull string like that when I was a kid. Pull his string and GI Ben says "We're going to protect the currency", or "I have a tough assignment for you Ben". Even has "lifelike" hair for a beard and kung-fu grip on his congress hearing microphone.
So the rumor is spread...at the end of it, DXY has gained .2 and the market's position is what it was at the lower DXY value. They gained back their slack.
ahh, but still all good for bank stocks...
No chance in hell the free money train stops at this station.
Ivanovich:
Funny. But I think you're forgetting, they need OBL for the Mid-Term elections in 2010, and then if things are close, in 2012. He has replaced Jack the Ripper, The Lockness Monster, Bigfoot, and numerous other "boogey-men."
No way the Fed is going to raise FF with CPI -1.5% YOY.
So you're saying that years from now little children will be scared about the "Bin Laden" in their closet and under their bed?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOa7sLXv_bY&feature=related
long hike off a short plank?
Just what the market ordered
Stop spreading false rumors...I thought you were credible enough the last 3 times and I got burnt.
A Mr. Nelson Muntz is on line one...
Raise, now? Right! Go ahead and load yourself up to the gills in debt, shorten the duration of the debt, then raise short term rates. HAHAHAHAHAHA! Sounds like someone is writing a new book. 'How to Blow Your Financial Head Off For Dummies'.
Yet another illustration of just how fricking impossible it will be for the Fed to unwind their position astride the world's financial markets.
They don't have any intention of 'unwinding'.
Now there's some massive hilarity for ya.
The Fed isn't even finished with QE 1.0 and a rumor pops up about rate increases.
Now just how stupid is that?
Given that we still have massive deflationary headwinds going forward (CRE values, aggregate wages, more foreclosures hitting the books), we are more likely to see QE 2.0 than any rate hike over the next 2 years.
As Bearish Spirits astutely noted, this rumor is likely a play to keep DXY propped while equities find new highs.
Agreed. Raising rates would be absolutely the stupidest possible move imaginable. Only a complete retard would think that was a good idea right now
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so I guess Ben will be raising rates then.
http://economic-undertow.blogspot.com/2009/09/here-we-go-again.html
Shutup logic!
They're going to need to defend the dollar somehow.
Sure, they NEED to do a lot of things but that doesn't mean they CAN do it.
Maybe China will sell the dollar and treasuries into that and then load up on gold and silver with the proceeds
Umm, the dollar/tsy market is many orders of magnitude larger than the gold + silver market.
defending the dollar means attacking debt, and we have the most of it...they dont have to defend shit.
This looks lie the end game the more I look at it. remarkable really. I really need more than two cups of coffee to wrap my head around it.
US 1O YEAR BOND daily chart still giving bullish signals.
more here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook
Smoke, fire?
DX and eur/jpy rallying together today
Last time i thunked, free money +.25% still equaled free money
Obama's stimulus bill employment projections are based on the Fed maintaining ZIRP his entire first term.
Seasonal VALUE in bonds is 117.08. Thus, it is possible to see a quick spike down to that level over the next several days or week. Also, if stocks rollover, treasuries will see inflows as protection. Dollar would rise in this scenario as well. Good luck everyone. Stay focused.
I will say it. Fed will start hiking in 2015. That is right. Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and the like will screw this up beyond help.
Would think a hike here would put a bid on the long end.
the secret diabolical scheme by Jeffrey Lacker begins...with the public voice played by brian wesbury
... and the mean time non other than Goldman Sachs says that the 10 Yr will reach a 3% yield while still bullish on stocks (all of them, all regions)
Bloomberg is a happy camp and now it features the 3 stooges at market opening in the most idiot living room optimistic conversations about the stock markets and the FTSE MIB follows (like a 3X leveraged bet) not only the US on market hours but also the US futures. Demonstrating how much of fundamentals the pricing on its penny stocks components is ...
PS. is deidre bolton a robot ?
I like Deidre, especially with the sound turned off, and wearing glasses:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/10833845@N04/1365149027/
NSFW:
http://www.maxim.com/girls/44100/tvs-10-hottest-news-anchors.html#6
Raising rates would be tantamount to an admission that The Fed/Bernanke believes all its piffle about the recession being over. They believe nothing of the kind, and they will prove it by not raising rates. End of story.
Was that intervention on the Yen to stop it going though 90?
No, new guy said he doesn't plan on Yen intervention and there were some positives to Yen strength.
Their actions may not match their deeds behind the scenes.
I thought JPs were ones that admitted when they intervened. Might be mistaken on that, I know they are (were?) the masters of jawboning.
How many times has it been officially over now. Im just waiting for the dollar to get support against the euro.
The Fed has to raise rates, unless the fed wants to denominate in Hungarian forint.
Notice yesterday Ben said the recession is over. The phrase "recession is over" means only one thing to a Fed chief and that is: it is time to [blank] rates.
What is the word in the blank?
You really don't have an appreciation for context, do you?
Context is simply a means of distraction of the facts.
Kind of like an elephant in a living room. What is the point of noticing the nice context like the flowers in the vase or the program running on the TV if there is an elephant in front of you.
Or... context can add something to the conversation that actually matches the actions that are actually being taken.
In the case of BB speaking yesterday, he mentioned the a "statistical recovery", not a "recovery" in the traditional sense of the word (you know, one that also includes credit expansion in the equation). Then he followed the expansion phase by saying... well it won't feel like a recovery becuase unemployment will take time to recover.
Of course we have a "statistical recovery" unfolding-- it was all delivered by the Fed and U.S. government stimulus.
But is it working? Well, money velocity is still going nowhere and consumer credit is still contracting. Banks are still hoarding cash and retiring more loans than issuing new ones. I would say.... uh... NO, not really.
The reality is that the Fed is running out of bullets. The Fed went to QE (a very rare event) to supplement its ZIRP. And the bummer (for them) is that QE is coming to and end... and it might not return (depnds on the debt ceiling issue). The only thing the Fed can count on is ZIRP until credit expands again.
The word "recovery" is not one easily uttered by a Fed chief. Doesn't matter how many flowers are around it, and whether it is statistical or real. Check the references below. IMF, UK, everyone is saying it is a recovery. Check past rate turns. The word recovery was never uttered even in jest until they planned to raise ( I wanted to use "raze") rates.
I actually read it the other way around: "The dollar is crap. Here is your cover, now go raise rates."
Doesn't stack up. Equities up, dollar down. And Bernanke, that clown will keep rates at 0% for ever if he could. No way we see a rate hike.
I find it funny that the DXY average last August was around 76 and this August was around 78.25-78.50...yet core CPI went up 1.4%? OOPS. Sounds a little like stagflation/inflationary depression to me.
Several other countries are talking about raising rates, Australia, Sweden... Of course those countries finances are better then the US, but then on the other hand, what about the dollar? Most other currencies are pegged to the dollar or a derivative there of, I'm guessing there would be international pressure for the US to do so.
But what the hell do I know? I look at screens all day and all I see is flying pigs.
At some point they WILL placate then Chinese with a hike. When ???? soonish.
That will be an opportunity for a correction in equities, oil, gold etc..
Hey, it's not gonna change anything on the ground in the US as banks aren't really lending anyway. Except MSM will be negative again.
Possible next step?
Ireland is buying up all commercial loans (Bloomberg), details still murky.
Could happen in the US to bail small, mid sized banks.
FASB still hanging there. Will they push out FAS157 again?
Thoughts?
I'm not up to speed with what the governments of the day value more. Saving currency or saving the financial system. It's a bit of a juggle. At some point (70) the dollars needs to be strengthened, at stake are treasuries. Without them, no more bank bailouts.
India will most likely raise rates in next few months.
concealed pistols & freaking not permitted in this establishment
does the FED lead or follow? latter I believe.
Partly true and partly false.
I used to think this was true until the Fed started buying Fannie and Freddie garbage, along with the programs added to stabilize money market funds. When the Fed buys garbage, that is pretty much out of context of the credit market and leading the credit markets. The head of the Zimbabwe central bank declares the notion of following to be false.
On the other hand if the Fed wants to maintain any semblance of currency stability, it needs to follow the credit trends in the market, not print like a madman.
Well I wouldn't pass it off. an increase of 0.1% would send a message without killing business or the banks AND would be an action in sych with China to cool the markets.
Really 60% in 5 months, how much more do you all think is left. Good luck to any longs.
if they don't raise rates the dollar is toast and no one will buy bonds
don't discount a surprise raise folks
I thought the ZH rumor last week was negative interest rates?
They will have to hike before year end to keep selling bonds.
And when the equity and comm mkts get a whiff, there's the end of your Bear Mkt rally.
No PPT will stop it.
Raise rates into the soon to be Alt A and Option Arm mortgage explosion? HMMM
And I find the timing a little suspect; GS comes out this morning and says T's possibly to 3%,yields drop, then all of a sudden this rumor comes out to trash the 10yr....seems like some shorts on the wrong side that trumped up a rumor to cover.
Besides even if true and BB raises .5 or 1%...what does that do? ramp the market more? or destroy the carry trade; perpetuating bond and USD shorts to cover and possible stock market liquidity drain which will just send them into T's holding the yield down anyway. This rumors timing with GS announcement and where the stock market currently is at seem a little suspect
BTW bchbum smells like low tide.
Here you go the recession is over, all the expert opinions:
IMF chief
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jI-iIEI31qi90Vw2Lev3A...
Bank of England
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23744169-details...
UCLA economist
http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/16/ucla-forecast-says-recession...
And so on and so on. The experts agree.
Thanxz for the links. I'm convinced, the economy is healthy again. Thank Jehova. If Ben is a like minded expert, well then, turn the tap off and let's suck in that liquidity.
Oh, and change your handle to "Printslower". Greenshoots, greenshoots.
Rates don't rise in a 'lost decade'.
Nothing more than an attempt to shake the weak hands out of the best investment in the world being touted as the worst there ever was... short term US debt.