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Bonds On Support Again

Tyler Durden's picture





 

By Nic Lenoir of ICAP

We are back testing the support on the daily chart in bonds today following NFP. Number did not beat expectations but speculative pressure and fear of a discount rate hike next week (we think it probably won't happen and if it does it should not impact rates materially) helped push the market lower. The support here is key at 114-25, if we break below the next level is 111-26. Looking at the 30-minute chart, I think we have a very clean ABC formation and the next move could well be up. Since we are right on support I would look at being long via option structures, and quickly reverse to shorts if we close below 114-25.


Have a good weekend for those who made it in!

Nic

 


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Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:31 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Short Ts with Zimbabwe Ben at the controls? You can count me out:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPsSWoYursc

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:34 | Link to Comment depression
depression's picture

Good thing Timmay is rolling over that $300B a week into bills.

Mother of all H&S on the monthly chart !

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Nic, I'll take your trade on the opposite side. TYX has already broken out upwards; today's NFP is just amplifying the move. When that neckline breaks on your chart, which it already has if one looks at the original neckline, it will be bombs away for the longs. The upcoming auctions will tell the tale. You might want to look at the 2s-10s chart; the corrective has completed.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:02 | Link to Comment john_connor
john_connor's picture

The clowns are playing with fire as usual.  I wonder how much crap they can stuff into 7 year duration as a backstop before hitting 10 and 30 year.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:05 | Link to Comment curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

I am very glad to see I am not the only person working today. 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:22 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Curb, didn't you hear?  Everyone is working now...Rally on!  Everyone's got a job nothing but up from here. (oh, right...except that pesky 20% of the working population that isn't.) 

 

 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 16:16 | Link to Comment CombustibleAssets
CombustibleAssets's picture

All Amerika worker happy employed

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 15:47 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The bond market is ten times the size of the equity market, is it not?  What happens when the traders move their investments?  

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 15:53 | Link to Comment bc0203
bc0203's picture

You're forgetting the size of the CDS market, which is several times the size of the Bond market.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

Nic, I think we will see a rate hike (0.25%) due to the FED meeting on Monday. It will be done to send a message of monetary responsibility to China in anticipation of the upcoming Nuclear talks mid-April when the heads of state will meet.

Mark Beck

Sat, 04/10/2010 - 10:44 | Link to Comment mark456
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