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BoomBustBlog Traders Armed With BoomBustBlog Research Caught ~10% Deutsche Bank Fall
Deutsche Bank looks downright UGLY! Our new Forensic
Analysis/Technical Trade combo called this one out about 2 weeks ago
with impressive precission. Kudos to all who contributed.
On
Tuesday, 28 June 2011 I posted the first of many trade setups powered
by BoomBustBlog proprietary research focusing on profting the upcoming
Eurocalypse and overvaluation in the tech sector. In the post "More On Trading with BoomBustBlog Research" an illustrative Deutsche Bank equity trade set up contributed as follows:
Messages from Josef Ackermann reached the markets today:
-
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF - AM VERY GLAD THAT WE ARE WITH GREAT CHANCE TO BE COUNTING SIFIs
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF - ASSUME THAT INDUSTRY FIRST BEFORE TAXES FROM 16 TO ROE 19VH SEE IS ABOUT THE TIME AGAIN 25VH
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF - BY REGULATORY CHANGES WILL RETURN ON THE BANKS GO DOWN TEMPORARILY
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF - GREATER EQUITY LOANS ARE NOT FOR ALL EASY TO OBTAIN EUROPEAN BANKS START OF LOWER OUTPUT BASE
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF
DBKGn.DE ACKERMANN - EQUITY CAPITAL AFTER THE CRISIS IS STILL MORE TO
critically important competitive factor, POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF DBKGn.DE ACKERMANN - BANKS OF REVENUE FROM OPERATING BUSINESS LIKELY TO REMAIN HUMBLE foreseeable future
- GERMAN-BANK-CHIEF
DBKGn.DE ACKERMANN - ROME IS CURRENTLY WITH BANKS AND EU ON
PARTICIPATION OF PRIVATE CREDITORS TO GREECE RESCUE DISCUSSED
One
might consider this in bad faith as a hidden profit warning. Or what
would like to say the Deutsche Bank? I'm short since the 39,50 level.
The German bank leaves key support zones straight down. The critical 40
level has not kept the 39 and nobody seems to buy the Pavilion. There
are now potential short term losses to be expected in the area of
??37.50/38. Under these Levels shares will lost ground to the November
support the low of around 36 €.
image004_copy
Near picture:
image003_copy_copy
As derived and excerpted from 
Euro Bank Soveregn Debt Exposure Final - Pro & Institutional (934.65 kB 2010-05-13 00:11:32):
image004
What
is the result of throwing pound after pound of leveraged fiat currency
meat into the hungary maw of an overweight European brown bear who is
naught to give it back nor make good use of it? Let's ask one of the
banks from year's report...
image001
The
afore-linked document has Deutsche Bank's exposure to the PIIGS group
oulined and detailed. There is another angle that we covered early last
year as well. Reference Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Pro & Institutional or Deutsche Bank vs Postbank Review & Summary Analysis - Retail.
This is the update (dated 6/29) to the trade setup illustrated above, which I haven't even published yet due to material grammar and translation snafus, but the cat is out of the bag now...
Update:
The
fact is that Greece is like a smoldering fire. Sometimes Rest, then
fire again, and you never really know when the next outbreak comes. This
situation is unfortunately still get us some time.
Even
New York's new proposal interpreted with some relief. The just enough
to avoid the worst and the default is sufficient for today made to
continue the tedious summer of consolidation. Again, as long as the S
& P 500 above 1,250 and the Dow Jones is the defending 11.900, the
technical picture is solid enough. Even the Wall Street optimists
surprise with positive approaches. Eight days ago, it was just the
opposite. A survey of Intelligence, "CNN Money" is: The number of
optimists is increasing. Such surveys are always provided with a
question mark, but still.
The
banks respond to the new proposals for Basel III surprising positive,
not the stock market. The deductions for COMMERZBANK and DEUTSCHE BANK
may be an exaggeration, but the technical situation is both hard hit. It
looks better with the Americans, according to these rules and
regulations for the core capital ratio, all of which are on the safe
side. We take this note, but I do not respond to U.S. banks.
COMMERZBANK
is not to hold at the moment. € 2.70, of course, are fundamentally
extremely low, however: The Greece-positions of around € 2.6 billion in
the subsidiary EUROHYPO are in the current situation a mad speculative
fears. It can stop each, depending on your taste. It would be good if
COMMERZBANK not only keeps silent, but say something constructive. There
is nothing worse than uncertainty. COMMERZBANK would announce today
that these positions at half Price were sold, representing the market
value, then they would have € 1.3 billion actually lost.
And one should expect values to get much worse from here!!!
More
precisely, the daughter EUROHYPO. Whether this with, this amount by
proposing to the consolidated financial statements is an open question.
In any case, would then this disgusting toad swallowed. It is a courage
to ask. The GERMAN BANK fighting for every technical resistance. This is
all very scarce and an assessment is not possible while also here the
Greeks topic the determined mood. Breaks through the price of the 39 €
sustainably, everything is up to 36 € open. Then there is the real
technical test, because under 36 € there is no resistance more on the
inspiration to the actors. Probably not. I expect the continuation of
the sideways trend in the range of 36-48 € but the €36 are to fill!
On
that note, here is the latest (released yesterday) European bank and
sovereign debt exposure research recalculated to show contagion paths: European Bank's Greece exposure
Additional French bank solvency analysis will be out shortly.
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Excellent research Reggie, can't say that about the writing however.
"precission" is precision and your 6/20 unpublished script is almost un-readable (did you use a software translator?) and hard work to munch through!
There seems to be a misundertanding that I failed to correct. The "unreadable" content is an informal contribution from a trader posting trade setups for DB. I decided to post it as is (obviously, english is not his first language). In the future I will modify the text to conform to normal BBB research. You see, feedback is worthwhile. There is the argument to be made that I should post the content as it is contributed, but I do undertand your point.
Feedback is important Reggie ...such as how you short specific shares like Deutsche Bank as most ETF's are general market or sector products? ..are you renting them or buying puts/calls?
Double Post
Russian rant - almost had me for a moment, but this is 'vested interest' and so obvious it cannot even make a complete phrase!
TZA is a dog.
A whole ten percent! And apple is only up 80% since RM, for some bizarre reason, decided to rant about how the android has a better interface and apple is goin' down, etc. Yes, yes, it was not an actual recommendation, merely four or five long articles, that doesn't count, etc etc.
- founding member of the "We love Reggie, so stick to what you know Reggie" fan club.
TZA bitches