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A Bounce In Risk
From Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Fundamentally I am not on board in the sense that banning short selling is usually the kiss good bye. Maybe Germany could consult with Iceland to discuss closing the market for 3 or 4 days to take a break, it's a real confidence builder. Sarcasms aside, there are a lot of rumors going around of ECB intervention in the FX market to defend the Euro and and Europe-wide ban of short-selling. Both in my opinion are negatives for the long term but could lead to a short-term covering of shorts in carry trades and equities.
More importantly, we are on key supports around here. AUDJPY has bounced once again on a MAJOR support line. If we break here then it's the final unravelling coming up. I expect the market to bounce first. In equities we saw my targets in S&P futures as well at 1,106.75 on the downside, and we have divergence at last on the new lows (see RSI on 3-hour chart). Dax has so far held a key support for the day as well, and same thing for the Nasdaq. For the Dax watch closely the 5,980 support which must hold (similar level to 76 in AUDJPY) and on the bounce we see 6,180 as the initial target and key resistance. For the S&P future it corresponds to bouncing back to 1,175/1,180 under which we had recommend to sell last week. For the Nasdaq this major resistance is 1,1980/2,000.
Because fundamentals are in my humble opinion atrocious, I will be looking at initiating fresh short recommendations around the aforementioned resistances, but we would square most of the core short exposure here and tactical players are getting good levels here to play a bounce.
In parallel to this, 10Y futures have just hit a key resistance at 120-15, we would square longs at the very least until the market breaks out. Key support comes in underneath at 118. This is completely ludicrous in the face of negative CPI numbers, but as you know by now I am not one to defy price action.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Nothing like "jaw-bone" intervention....this way the Europeans don't have to spend money they don't have proping up their flawed currency...nice
They'd better ban cancer and AIDS too.. Idiots!
As I understand it BaFin is banning naked short selling not short selling in general. This ban includes naked short selling of gold. Naked short selling is illegal, but not enforced in Anglo-American banking system.
wait - you want the permabears here to be rational when it goes against their agenda?
I agree with many things on ZH but not supporting naked shorting and definitely not trying to save naked shorting in the guise that it is a ban on normal shorting
The "End of The World as We Know It" Index is up 5 tics this morning on Germany, Thailand, and Rand Paul news. The uptrend is intact and should pick up steam this summer.
If they intervene and they just might, you don't want to be short EUR/USD, so set your stops accordingly
Why would Europe want to defend the Euro ? We are exporting more than ever... specially to the USA....Trade Balance ? do you know what that means ? 1,21.. 1,23 who cares. Europe is still 20% above parity and you all dream about european stuff delivered at your door. Watch out for the US trade imbalance in the coming months to see who's going down.
No CB would want to have it's currency
go down as drastically as we have been
experiencing since El Greco showdown.
Is this a ban on short selling, or naked short selling? Naked short selling in any market should be banned as it has the same characteristics of fiat currency. It is created out of thin air, and dilutes the value of investors real holdings.
As for banning CDS on bunds as well, Charlie Munger said we got along alright before these unbacked speculative insurances were sold.
Is this a ban on short selling, or naked short selling? Naked short selling in any market should be banned as it has the same characteristics of fiat currency. It is created out of thin air, and dilutes the value of investors real holdings.
As for banning CDS on bunds as well, Charlie Munger said we got along alright before these unbacked speculative insurances were sold.
I one remembered a wise man saying that "Bans are meant to protect stupid people".
right - so lift the ban on murder.. what fucking assholes have flood in this site of late
it is a ban on NAKED shorting - maybe you issued a ban on your brain on comprehension
Dear dark pools of soros,
I would like to apologize for throwing sand into your vagina. I'm so sorry that I didn't realize how much of a big pussy you were before I posted a tongue in cheek remark.
Say hi to your mother for me,
Sincerely,
Murdering, Naked Shorting Asshole
US Gov has to love this in the short term. Funding needs for FY2010 taken care of.
Cycle of...
Asset Crash -> Drive flight to quality, fund Treasuries -> Commence QE -> Promote Risk Rally -> Set stage for Asset Crash
It will be time to save the world again in a few months. QE 2.0 prolly gets announced after the mid-term elections.