This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
BP – Good News?
BP stock is down about .8% in pre-market. A bit of a surprise given that
they finally plugged this thing. There is other news that may be
trumping the action.
There is a new “hard” estimate on the amount of oil that was leaked. The
number is 205,800,000 gallons. That is 4.9mm brls. If you applied a
fine of $4,300 per brl., it comes to $21b.
There will be a fine. Using the $4,300 number may be overstating things.
But there is no reason to expect the Administration to be lenient
either. A slap on the wrist is the most unlikely outcome.
Say it is $20b. There is another $10b that has been committed. And then there are the direct costs. It could get to $40b.
That would not sink BP. But it will kill the dividend for a long time. Sell on the news?
»
- advertisements -
A wonderfully concise and enlightened explanation of how the public myth is generated and nurtured by those who have a emotional, financial and political interest in being keepers of the public myth. It's not just for the experts any more. One of the outcomes of the Internet blogging explosion is everyone can now participate in keeping (and battling) the public myth.
What's not fully understood is that those who actively oppose the public myths are now an integral part of keeping the myth because they provide cannon fodder and the "other side" for the myth keepers to battle. Lies are not promoted to change minds. They're intended solely to enable those who wish to "believe" the public myth an avenue and a means to do so.
For those who wish to believe, it warms the heart to see those evil non-believers struck down with great vengeance and extreme prejudice by the glorious and patriotic myth keepers. Long live the public lie. It lives because a sufficient number of "us" wish it to live. That's all it takes.
yo CD,
i'm not sure which way i go on the myth being exposed or reinforced with this public interface to the 'microphone' (keyboard).
Geo Washington (blogger...) was as convinced that the BP cloud of death had arrived and would be the end of mankind - i simply quit reading his rants. now he gets to 'unwind' his position as nature absorbs this mess and life actually goes on.
to be sure, BP's leak was a big-ass bummer and nasty mess that will have a lasting impact on some... but life does move forward, and nature has a way of taking things that appear large to 'little men' and making them seem much less big over time. (human nature, etc.)
i often wonder that we haven't had a similar financial 'oil leak' of greater magnitude with GS = BP... etc., and we're (ZH) the panic-striken bloggers calling for an end of economic life as we know it, when, really, a few years of natural financial activity by the bulk of the populace may simply disperse this mess. i don't buy that, but i wonder.
i dunno. i'm a modest prepper and i like, trust, and comprehend gold/silver (small amounts that i can acquire) more than most any other asset-class, and i don't trust the goobermint to do much anything meaningful in my personal better interests, so i'm clearly a bit mixed on this new media mechanism after watching it 'work' for a while.
i value the freedom it allows, but have to continuously scrutinize the results when the nature of the majority of the participants doesn't match the true nature of the majority.
is democracy really run by a few motivated special interests, while the rest of the world raises their kids and milks their cows?
I wouldn't cackle quite so soon on this subject, buddy boy...
http://pesn.com/2010/08/01/9501682_Gull_Loop_Current_Stalls_from_BP_Spill/
cackle? i did no such thing. i have no side in this debate, nor do believe that a huge PR cover-up is unlikely. rather inevitable.
that said, if i were going to cackle, it would be at a long-winded and highly speculative article on a site that espouses (read: sells) green technology, therefore enjoying an obvious anti-oil agenda. (i'm not pro oil, i'm keen to spin) titled:
Gulf Loop Current Stalls from BP Oil Disaster
i would cackle at anyone with a 6 inch diameter brain (Dr. Gianluigi Zangari) who presumes with certainty to understand anything that will have global consequences. right from the first sentence... :
"Oceanographic satellite data now shows that as of July 28, the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has stalled as a consequence of the BP oil spill disaster..."
sure - the loop current may have stalled. that is either true or it isn't. it may happen regularly or it may be unusual.
but i don't have to worry about said 'loop current' or even read any further, to comfortably discount the entire article when i continue with "as a consequence of the BP oil spill disaster". are you kidding?
if you don't understand that the magnitude of nature simply dwarfs this relatively miniscule zit of a problem (4,6,8, million barrels? hah), then ... well nevermind.
but if you honestly trust this particular 'research'... rest assured that some silly oil spill in the gulf of mexico is the least of your problems.
It was interesting watching the interaction within every single GW BP post of the defenders/believers. Notice that I don't name sides here because both sides had defenders/believers. And that's what I mean about the public myth battle in the blogsphere. The defenders of the myth showed up with every post, using Ad hominem arguments to support their supposition.
This could be said of both sides, though one side definitely used Ad hominem arguments more effectively than the other while the other used Ad hominem personal attacks more effectively. One side stuck with "the facts" as told by the establishment/BP/government while the other side attacked the "facts" as coming from conflicted sides. It was a mighty battle that both sides feel they won.
And the public myth of free speech and full disclosure wins big.
indeed CD, my "comment-validation" triggers are *much* better tuned to the information vs emotion thanks to my visits here at ZH.
there are a bunch of very lucid and articulate folks here that widen my views of most everything each day. thanks to ZH, my hero lincoln doesn't seem quite so heroic these days... sad to have that 3rd grade illusion shattered (although i'm quite glad the slaves were freed). the reality of the human game is quite depressing sometimes. but "what is, is".
then there are the other sorts of blog 'contributors'... nuf said.
i just hope i'm closer to the first group! even if a simpleton, i try to maintain some respect for facts and conclusions, and spray my toxic dispersants on the personal and emotional attacks, hoping they will, well, ... disperse. i certainly have no illusions of 'fixing' anyone anywhere. heh.
i try to picture the kinds of folks that frequent ZH, huffpo, maket-ticker, calc-risk, naked-cap, reason-mag, etc., and wonder how representative each of the participants are relative to the usual folks that surround me (i ain't no elite, let me assures ya). they're clearly more involved in their respective communities, but perhaps too small a number to matter.
i'm glad for the ability to visit each 'neighborhood' and come to my own conclusions. that by itself is priceless, and apparently becoming more scarce.
"No Smoking!" signs to go up on beaches from Galveston to Pensacola.
Oil? What oil?
Didn't you hear? The new public myth is that 74% of the oil is "gone". Presumably the space aliens took it with them as "easy pickings" fuel when they vacated the planet in advance of 2012.
Now all we need worry about is a few "tar balls".
Gulf of Mexico Hash, BP sub-species, Macondo variety.
What about the all up estimate Matt Simmons gave of 1 TRILLION ?
what no volcano? No tsunami? no methane gas explosion obliterating the southern US? No hurricane borne rain of death? The gulf still has life in it?
shocking!
All these things must have happened and TPTB are just covering it up.
Got to run, need to buy more barbed wire and freeze dried food....
WTF is this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5alY3-ydJ8&feature=player_embedded
The rover moving around.
LOL, yea, you're all over it. I can tell that you're somewhat of an expert on the matter.
That was assuming anyone anywhere following the written laws.
My mid and long term put options are getting destroyed. I'd bet my ass, at this point, that the administration completely lets them off the hook.
Sorry, just like at the track, minimum bet is two bucks.
Right, but I was buying a "to show" ticket that the pussy administration is turing into a superfecta.
It's already started, and Carol Browner is supposed to be the administration's 'environmentalist'.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-04/-vast-majority-of-oil-gone-from-gulf-of-mexico-u-s-energy-adviser-says.html
they took a 32b charge - the enviro damage is being downplayed big time - there are issues with the regulators and don't forget BPs partners e.g. TransOcean
maybe a $5b fine but not $20b and Feinberg will have a tough time spending the $20b he's been given
There's another $10B coming for the refinery release.
Time for me to work on my Louisiana bayou twang and get me some of that Feinberg money. :>)
NOLA is a vacuum, it sucks. Remember Katrina? Nothing has changed, the mentality is the same.
this will help, i gua-ran-tee...
http://www.amazon.com/Cajun-Self-Taught-Learning-Speak-Language/dp/0961424567/ref=sr_1_fkmr1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1280934827&sr=8-1-fkmr1
I have a friend who transplanted into that area about 20 years ago. He has adopted the ways of the natives but he tells me it's more than just the twang. It's a mentality and a way of life. You must be born into it from 3rd or 4th generation parents in order to be accepted as "one" of the locals. But he says he began to be treated well by the locals after only 10 years of face time. And his kids can now date the locals after 20 years. :>)
It's the same all over the country, whether it's Maine, Georgia, Colorado or LA/Bama/Texas. Until you lived at least 40 years locally and have dropped a few litters, you're just a wanna-be Yankee/Cajun/cowboy/bubba. :>)
I think it has a lot to do with attitude as well. Many people make grievous mistakes when moving into a local area that can take decades to overcome. Humility goes a long way. "Yankees" who breeze into town acting like Mr. Big will never be accepted. Avoid condescending behavior. Get to know the people. Accept and offer hospitality. Don't act/think your money puts you in any special position. The electrician/plumber/mover/handy man are to be treated with respect. Pay fair wages for services, and don't quibble over prices. If someone is doing work at your house, put a cooler out there filled with a variety of sodas . . . more than they can drink. In the heat of the afternoon, invite workers to come in your home for a break. Visit with them for a while. You see, there is a "Redneck/Cajun/Hillbilly Network" in play. Any interaction you have with one local, will be spread to all locals. You want to be viewed as an honest, fair, and straight shooting person. Find out where the locals have coffee, and stop in and ask if you can join them. Ask lots of questions about them, say little about yourself. Don't try to impress them, be a learner, not a talker.
I moved to rural Texas from Silicon Valley. I was able to integrate in fairly easily. I did make some mistakes. When we were building our house, I was too hard on the builder. He was a master craftsman, and was not a businessman. I was too hard on him about schedule and budget over-runs. After that, I found that it was hard to get top notch craftsman in the area to do work for me, as the builder told locals I was a hard ass. Have managed to smooth things over, but have learned to be more tolerant of people, and not deal with them in the impersonal way one would in the city.
I suspect that Feinberg will be treated very well by the locals from day one
LOL
Nearly unlimited money coming out of your ass has a way of engendering short term love and affection and overcoming many regional, political, social and religious prejudices.
That is until the money runs out. Then he/she/they instantly becomes bastards and not-to-be-trusted persona non-grata "furners" right quick. Doonesbury has been having some fun the past few days.
http://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/?utm_source=GoComics&utm_medium=free_email&utm_campaign=user_comic