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BP has succeeded in capping the well and stopping oil from flowing
into the Gulf of Mexico ... at least temporarily.
The
official Deepwater Horizon Response Twitter feed noted as of a
couple of minutes ago:
Update:
NO OIL FLOWING INTO THE GULF
This can be confirmed by looking at the underwater
video cams.
As of this writing, Skandi ROV 2's cam is showing
the cap (no oil), and Skandi ROV 1's cam is showing sonar of the
seafloor:
BP live feed from Skandi ROV 1 |
BP live feed from Skandi ROV 2 |
However, numerous industry experts have warned
that there is no upside to temporarily capping the well as part of the
well integrity test, and that it might actually cause the well to blow
out.
Indeed, Don Van Nieuwenhuise -
director of geosciences programs at the University of Houston - told
CNN today:
We don’t know if there ae significant leaks
deep in the well.
There’s a couple of weak points at 9,000
feet, and one at 17,000 feet, that they might be particularly
interested in looking and watching in the seismic.
[With seismic testing, you can look beneath the seafloor. Sonar only tests at the seafloor
itself].
Admiral Thad Allen previously said
that the test will be considered a success if pressure in the well
stays at 8,000 psi or higher for 48 hours. So we won't know for a
couple of days whether the test has succeeded.
As AP correctly notes:
Now begins a waiting period to see if the cap can hold
the oil without
blowing a new leak in the well. Engineers will monitor pressure readings
incrementally for up to 48 hours before reopening the cap while they
decide what to do.
Interestingly, as CNN's
Situation Room noted a couple of minutes ago, the cap might soon be
re-opened, and closed again only
during hurricanes:
Admiral Thad Allen
releasing a statement to us just a short while ago…
He cautions
“This isn’t over”…
Very interesting here. He talks about
the cap as a temporary measure to be used for hurricanes…
“It
remains likely that we will return to the containment process…
until the relief well is completed”
So it looks like the
plan is to go back to releasing the oil and letting it pump
up to the surface.
So
is the well integrity test a meaningless PR
stunt, which is delaying completion of the relief wells, and
failing to bring us any closer to permanently
killing the oil gusher?
Or is it a valuable tool to see
if the well can be protected from further damage during a hurricane?
Only
time will tell ...
Hat tip FloridaOilSpillLaw.
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This is promising news. Crossed fingers, prayers, rub a rabbit’s foot, hang a lucky horseshoe, don't kick the cat etc. etc. More proof of the potential good that comes from human innovation and science rather than superstition. There were things that contributed to the original explosion completely beyond the hands of even the best engineers in the world. Some events are completely "out of the box". They do not fit into the normal parameters of previous experiential data. The volumes and pressures of gas experienced were of a magnitude never experienced before. This oil spill because of its luminous nature has brought up much debate about the nature of capitalism, energy, private property, human knowledge, infallibility and what form of management structure should prevail. This is all timely. Things happen for a reason. Wise counsel must prevail. The underwater pictures have shown us something else. i.e. There is abundant oil on the Planet and G-d wants us to use it and control it ? The metaphor of flowing abundance...
Bullshit - try to pay attention. The pressure encountered were utterly ordinary. In fact the reservoir pressures were LOWER than expected predrill. That unexpected event should have led to design changes but didn't. This happened because a "reward cost savings over safety" culture made mulitple "highest risk" decisions without understanding how they were compounding each other.
My little opinion is based on the fact that BP and the gov't have lied in the past to try to minimize the size of the catastrophe . Since there isn't a camera giving the instantaneous data that the workers are receiving above ground as to what the psi is on the well , I am assuming that as soon as the pressure drops or starts to drop the operation will be halted and declared a success . GW I am afraid your question will never be answered for the simple reason to declare that the wells integrity has been compromised would be like asking somebody to shoot you point blank. If I am one of todays politicians or a private company responsible for this mess am I going to tell the world that there is no fixing for a problem that has the potential to kill everything in the Atlantic Ocean ? Personally yes, but looking at the characters in this situation they aren't going to give you the truth .
I am afraid I agree with the above statement in general. based upon bp's safety record and their actions in this crisis (low balling numbers, keeping out journalists) I am afraid they do not deserved to be believed.
Fool me once shame on you. fool me twice shame on me. BP clearly was oriented at mitigating the damage before being honest. to give them the benefit of the doubt now would be foolish. But just like the paltry fine of goldman, Bp will escape.the payments will be tax deductions or something
So much oil! So much presure!!
It's as if 'Peak Oil' has jumped the Megalodon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megalodon
http://www.loiterink.com/photos/products/129_795_500x500.jpg
I appreciate ALL the debate. Thank you all.
please watch... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Sa3axgBzAU
+1000
I say one simple test will call them to the rug. Move all the skimmers away from the area and see what happens.... My guess alot of oil everywhere...But they will just claim it's oil that was previously submerged from the Dispersants.
The point being,this thing is big. it blew the rig apart.has bp ever said how much oil was down there.do you think by now bp know's.maybe not but 8,000psi is what blew the first one.when not caped it be maybe 4;000psi , stop it for now. but when you are about to hit well'S two and three remove it.you don't want the same thing to happen. (bang) i think that's why the drilling stoped.
i'll never buy bp gas again....
I don't see how these people think there are integrity problems downhole. Near the surface and in the BOP's there may be integrity problems if the rig moved during the explosion and pulled the wellhead off a bit. Downhole, I don't see it. When they finished drilling the well they had 14 ppg mud which equates to 13,000 psi at the bottom. Maybe the bottom liner could have some erosion at the shoe, but I have difficulty seeing how this can become catastrophic. If any of the drill pipe were dropped in the hole, maybe it could have damaged something. If the drill pipe is still hanging in the BOP, maybe the wellhead can't support this weight.
But if they can hold 8000 psi at the surface it will greatly increase the chance of the bottom kill with the relief well. It will be very difficult to kill a well flowing at that rate, but if they can hold some back pressure, it will help a lot.
The well head and the BOP don't have a problem supporting the casing weight or the drill pipe weight. They were designed for that. The well head was supporting the 13,000 ft of pipe in the long string before it was cemented. It can support it again. The BOP stress problem is the internal pressure problem that could develop with the top kill operation.
The downhole problem is at the very bottom of the well, pay zone and maybe 200 ft or so. There has certainly been erosion of the producing formation and possibly of the sand stringers above it. That is why they are being so careful about the intercept and are going in somewhat high. The condition of the bottom of the hole is the reason that this well will never be a producer. Once it takes a load of kill mud, followed by a load of cement, the already damaged formation with a now unknown size bore, will not be able to be recompleted for production.
As I've been saying for several days - IF there is a wellbore integrity issue the most likely spot is the bottom shoe. That will cause difficulty in the kill because there are some very odd pore pressure variations at the reservoir and above (drilled out of their shoe with 14+ mud but lost circulation repeatedly - I've heard that the block to the south produced & depleted a shallower sand - don't know if it extended this far).
My concern is if it is open to the backside you could have lower frac gradient section open to the mud. I don't think it's likely. In fact I argued for weeks that wellbore integrity was extremely UNLIKELY but then "Thad" and the committee started their dance and it's clear several things have been done to check for underground blowouts.
The wellhead is supporting the cap (150 K lbs) so I doubt the drillpipe will be an issues (I'm assuming since they were displacing to seawater there would have been few collars and only a bit more than 5000' of drill string).
Sorry GW...It appears we have attracted a bunch of bp roaches to the site. I guess that's what happens when the main stream media has a parade and sites like this bring in the thunder clouds. I'm convinced that one if not all of these shill roaches are Tony Hayward. Hey Tony, go back in the dark crack you came from and STFU!
I'm going to preface this by saying I haven't worked on an oil rig, nor did I study hydrodynamics. Nor am I in the Gulf of Mexico. Nor do I work for BP. Nor the Government.
That aside, it's really easy to sound like an expert on the Internet.
....
"yes, it's temporary"
But why?
Inherent in the Bottom kill (relief well) process are sudden changes in pressure. Bottom killing a capped well is too risky, due to these pressure fluctuations, so they'll open the flow to reduce chances of a catastrophic sub-sea blowout. They'll need to observe flow to junk shot. One step backward, Two steps forward.
Pressure through the existing well could be regulated enough that we could be producing out of the existing well AND the relief well. In Theory. But this won't happen; one for PR, two for risk managment.
BP could have tried to perm. cap the well a month ago... but the risks would have been tremendous. Anyone who's taken risk management 101 knows, if you fuck up big time once, you don't double down and try again. Risks aren't mitigated by taking other risks. You do what you know works.
If BP listend to the public chanting "PLUG THE WELL", we could have had a catastrophic sub-sea blowout instead of just a failed BOP.
BP wants 5 sigma or better. At this point, they aren't willing to try anything that isn't a 'sure thing.'
It's not a PR stunt, although some good PR doesn't hurt...
What makes you think that testing a cap is delaying the relief wells? Is this pure speculation? I don't understand because all other reports state the relief wells won't be complete until next month, yet your sources claim the relief drillers are twiddling thier sticks at 17,840.
George Washington---
Appreciate your continued information. Best I can find.
GO 0Hedge
Some more scaremongering, baseless left-wing propaganda on well safety which can be employed in irresponsible speculation about the GOM spill:
http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/interior-blowout-preventers-on-bps-relief-wells-also-had-problems
What I am surprised about is that the following was at some point reported in MSM at all about the relief wells (which were subsequently reportedly fixed):
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN1327392120100713?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true
As a side project, does anyone happen to know if the location coordinates displayed by some of the "newer" ROVs are relative, and if so to what point, or absolute?
I found this on Propublica's site:
http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/gulf-seafood-gets-chemically-tested-for-oil-not-dispersant
What more proof could you people need that oil and dispersant are NOT HARMFUL? What do you think the training protocol is for these scientists with these sensitive noses?
I say this tongue-in-cheek but you know darn well some lawyer will probably reference this article and/or these sniffing scientists when the lawsuits come.
There are full article spreads int NYT and WaPo on it as well. The difference is, they take small, often previously frozen samples into the lab. The whole point of the smell test is to detect trace amounts, in concentrations so low they would be difficult to isolate chemically.
As for your statement "oil and dispersant are NOT HARMFUL" -- dude, please qualify that a bit. Please. The whole point of toxicity is CONCENTRATION of the 'toxic' element. A shaker of salt can kill, as will a bucket of water. the funny part is, some of the testers are quoted as being regretful they can't eat the samples they test...
I guess you overlooked this "I say this tongue-in-cheek".
But you bring up a good point about concentration. I haven't seen anyone give the concentration of Corexit much thought when discussing its ability to rupture red blood cells and all organs, eat through boat hulls, etc.
I was trying to take it into consideration, hence the reference to the snack cravings of seafood sniffers.
If the GOM were a blender, and the oil were perfectly evenly distributed throughout the water, I am guessing things could still be OK. The problem of course is that's not the case.
BTW, I found an interesting interview/article about Matt Simmons. To one conspiratorially minded, it could provide some interesting clues as to why he took the stance he did re: the Macondo spill:
http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2010/07/12/story1.html?b=1278907200^3619551&page=2
I am still puzzled by how so completely destroying his credibility with outlandish, impossible claims would help raising capital for his new project, but then again there is no such thing as 'bad publicity'...
If he was advising his clients to buy like hell when oil was at $140, he might not have had any credibility to lose. He is no longer affiliated with the company that he founded "Simmons and Co." The guy was documented as having a short position (as you know) and he has a vested interest in wind over oil (per your link), plus (unless he was severely misquoted by Barrons) he thinks the GOM is 23,000 ft deep. To me, the guy is unquestionably not impartial. ;)
I don't think he's an idiot, and believe there is likely a good reason (at least in his judgment) for his behavior and words. I just don't know what those reasons might be. I realize he was (is?) short BP, but he's not an idiot, at 15-yr low, you cover if you have spent your life in finance.
Eh, here's to hoping a speedy shutdown of this damn hole.
GOM Deepwater
Operator
Surface/Area/Block
Well/Target/Lease
Noble Energy, Inc. MC 519 G27278 ENSCO 8501 Santa cruz 6,526
BP Exploration & Production Inc. MC 252 G32306 T.O. DEVELOPMENT DRILLER III MACONDO 5,159
BP Exploration & Production Inc. MC 252 G32306 GSF DEVELOPMENT DRILLER II MACONDO 5,139
Murphy Exploration & Production Company - GC 338 G21790 NABORS MODS 200 Front runner 3,350
Shell Offshore Inc. GC 248 G15565 FRONTIER DRILLER Glider 3,243
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation GB 668 G17407 NABORS MODS RIG 150 Gunnison 3,152
Shell Offshore Inc. GB 426 G07493 AUGER Auger 2,862
LLOG Exploration Offshore, Inc. MC 503 G32334 NOBLE LORRIS BOUZIGARD Appaloosa 2,642
Newfield Exploration Company GB 293 G32409 DIAMOND OCEAN VICTORY Pyranees 2,095
Shell Offshore Inc. GC 19 G04131 * COIL TUBING UNIT Boxer 750
Mariner Energy, Inc. GB 195 G24459 DIVE SUPPORT VESSEL (DSV) Zloty 690
Total Deep Water Prospects with Drilling/WO Activity
11http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/Current_Deepwater_Activity.pdf
MSNBC -- Today Matt Simmons Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scl2dgK_-Nw&feature=player_embedded
Simmons is exactly the a-hole I'm talkin about.
They hit a lake,8.000psi.it will pay for itself. bp knows it, they also have two more well coming on line.deep water gulf, that's were it's at
Temporary until its plugged, on schedule. This is the oilfield, we are efficient...well, we were, but soon we will be overregulated. There is oversite already prescribed, but LAZY government inspectors suck. Nonetheless, more rules that will not enforced, (until it is too late- just like the SEC), that will extort money for the gov. will be put into place.
Make lots of laws, enforce the ones that make gov. cash....arbitrary and unconstitutional.
I was trashed for talking truth on this spill and more than once mentioned that the sources and claims were sensationalized. I pointed out that it discounted the financial areas I felt ZH was reliable. They need advisors on mechanical and engineering issues on this site.
a con within a con within a con - - - -
Rockford, you're good. Any predictions on how this turns out?
Thank you ... bout wore me out. No predictions. Unlike others, I don't claim to know the future. Gasmiinder wrote the other day that most relief wells are attempted in open bore wells that have not been cased at all (his emphasis, although I probably paraphrased) which seems very logical. If they can intersect the wild well bore with the relief well, from science and materials standpoint, it should be sufficient to kill the well long term.
I don't necessarily see this as a thought control experiment being carried out by the govt. and BP. It seems obvious and logical to me that BP will try to minimize their liability at every opportunity... that is to be expected one would think. I am surprised by the lack of critical thinking by bloggers/commenters in evaluating all the "news" about this catastrophe. For example GW apparently still thinks Corexit was used @ Exxon Valdez when it was only used in test application and never allowed to be sprayed. Pages 56 & 69. http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/B/30000994.pdf
Personally, I was on the Exxon Valdez cleanup and it sucked. I was there in August. We would take our LCM (Landing Craft Mechanized) up to a prisitne looking beach .... you could see the bottom 30 ft. below, you could see bald eagles in the trees, etc. ... and the cleaning crew would start pressure washing the beach. The oil sheen from the beach would flow back into the ocean, where booms would contain it and skimmers would skim it. After about 10 days of being in one particular cove, you could no longer see the bottom @ 30 ft. The water was murky. The eagles where nowhere to be seen, in some cases having fled their nest I am afraid. Our boat and about 20 others had their diesel engines running most if not all of the time in a very confined area. Deck hardware such as gensets and pumps were operating most if not all of the time. When the beach was "cleaned", a Coast Guard guy showed up, take a look, and crossed it off of his clipboard. I walked out on the clean beach, turned over a rock about the size of a football, and found the sand underneath it saturated in thick black crude. I was back two years later in a different area that had been slimed, and again 4 years after that (1991 and 1995). I was genuinely surprised when I turned over rocks on the beach expecting to find the crude still there but it was not.
Oil spills are a bitch. Our efforts at cleaning up the gulf are going to prove somewhat futile IMHO. Personally, I think the best course of action would be to accelerate the natural microbial bioremediation that will take place, with us or without us.
Here is a very interesting article that was written almost 10 years ago exactly. The Old Man and The Secret Since the article was written, the technology (if you want to call it that) has gone nowhere from what I can tell.
Why didn't you say you were with the Exxon Valdez cleanup? If I had known that, I would have asked you directly for info on that historical incident.
He told you three or four times that he was in Alaska for the Valdez incident. He just did not put it on GodLikeProductions or BeforeItIsNews where you would find it.
I hope your fig tree is happy now.
Pretty interesting article on Martin. Have you tried any of the juice on anything? Will it work on Figs?
Just anectdotal. I took a pump up sprayer and shoved the brass wand deep inside a compost pile and sprayed some of the magic elixir into the pile. The next day, steam was billowing off the pile and I thought the damn thing was going to catch on fire. In my one experience, it seemed to work well, but I have found no conclusive scientific data that would substantiate my claim. I actually delivered a few drums of it to the Houston ship channel for use on the Mega Borg spill. It won't hurt the fig tree ... Might help it. It is hell on chiggers though. ;)
I believe he did mention it at least once. Part of the reason I don't think he is a 'shill', though obviously not impartial either (and of course I can say I was there too).
Are you the arbiter of "impartial" now?
I am not sure what the term means anymore. And no, arbiter of nothing. Why should anyone be impartial? How could anyone be perfectly impartial? Even a machine would be partial, operating based on some set of rules automatically makes one partial.
Wrong choice of words, I was merely trying to imply you may have strong, first-hand feelings and beliefs on the matter based on experience. For me it's an academic matter, and one that directly affects my life relatively little (beyond the global economic and national political effects). I'm guessing for you it's different.
I trust where you are coming from CD. Perfection is not required.
I have posted it before, you must not have seen it.
A lot of time could be saved by reading Kent Wells press briefings and presentations at the BP site (actual reporters ask him questions and they are identified, although I've rarely seen the these used in the crap-ass MSM articles).
The RWs were stopped for the duration of the integrity test (6-48 hours). The new recovery ships and LMRP can provide 100% recovery thru rough weather after the test while the RWs are completed. He said the seismic data before and after the shutdown was to be used for comparison of sea floor changes, ROVs need to be mostly pulled during this op, so you may not see all the vids.
Even though the well is producing oil, this is not an efficient production setup and the well will be shut by bottom kill which is the preferred method. Everything done up to that point was even by BPs admission effectively a hail mary pass, while the RWs which were started almost immediately (well one anyway) progressed.
You have it figured out pretty well. Unfortunately, as you can tell from reading the posts and previous articles that have been collected here, there are many others who cannot accept that. BP simply must be hiding the crack in the seafloor, otherwise why has no one found it. The red methane comming from this well is the prime contributor to the increase in the flesh eating microbes in the water. The methane level in the air at Venice, La (about 50 miles away) was measured at over 14% but they put on the fireworks display anyway as they did not want to scare anyone. The well you see leaking on the ROV cameras is not the real well. Oil expert Matt Simmons has declared that the real well is seven miles away and leaking over 100,000 bopd, that is in addition to the volume comming out that is on the videos and being collected topside. Some claim that it is entirely possible for that to occur as this well drilled into a cavern larger than Mt. Everest and when it drains the seafloor will collapse, swallowing the entire GoM. I'm not sure if that was before or after the methane explosion induced tsunami.
So, if BP does not address all of the nonsense in every press conference it is proof that they are covering it up. And now that there is no oil flowing into the GoM, BP is still involved in a coverup because the plan has always been to flood the GoM with oil in the first place to the benefit of the SE Asian shrimpers.
Get ready for a BP stock issue while the cap is fully shut. Once the issue is placed , cap will reopen, oil will flow once again.
GW has fallen hook line and sinker for this epic distraction of the public by Obama and his corporate cronies.
The 12,000 news articles on google about a little oil flowing into an ocean of water have hypnotized the sheeple for another 3 months while again our politicians in washington have gotten away with murder. "Bank reform" has passed. You can turn off the oil now, gentlemen.
GW, you are so gullible as to fall for this. The story was always a non event meant to distract the sheep from the real looting taking place. Surprising that zero hedge has played into it.
"Bank reform" has passed. You can turn off the oil now, gentlemen."
He shoots...he scores!
I made a similar comment to CD this morning...except mine involved live TV.
They're amateurs ;-)
Yawn... shows over people, you can stop the hysteria now. GWs pointless updates can finally end. Although you might not want to go back to finding Head and Shoulders patterns either. McDonald's is always hiring.
After reading some more, I have come to this conclusion:
Don't get too excited folks. BP is only trying to extract some PR mileage with headlines and twitter statements indicating "no oil is flowing into the gulf". They know and we know it's not a permanent cap - its only a test to determine the level of well integrity - which may not be all that great, plus there are/maybe cracks in the sea floor. It is FAR from a done deal, and they know it.
Disclosure: No position in BP or any other stock in ANY stock market on this planet.
Love your disclosure and would only add no fucking position in any stock, bond, option or any other fucking financial feces in any form.
And thanks for your posts!
@ Gekko
Yeah right ... we know you are short BP ... so short you would trip over a dime.