BP Has Stopped the Oil From Flowing ... But Is It Only Temporary?

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BP has succeeded in capping the well and stopping oil from flowing
into the Gulf of Mexico ... at least temporarily.

The
official Deepwater Horizon Response Twitter feed noted as of a
couple of minutes ago:

Update:
NO OIL FLOWING INTO THE GULF

This can be confirmed by looking at the underwater
video cams.

As of this writing, Skandi ROV 2's cam is showing
the cap (no oil), and Skandi ROV 1's cam is showing sonar of the
seafloor:

BP live feed from Skandi ROV 1

BP live feed from Skandi ROV 2

However, numerous industry experts have warned
that there is no upside to temporarily capping the well as part of the
well integrity test, and that it might actually cause the well to blow
out.

Indeed, Don Van Nieuwenhuise -
director of geosciences programs at the University of Houston - told
CNN today:

We don’t know if there ae significant leaks
deep in the well.

There’s a couple of weak points at 9,000
feet, and one at 17,000 feet, that they might be particularly
interested in looking and watching in the seismic.

[With seismic testing, you can look beneath the seafloor. Sonar only tests at the seafloor
itself].

Admiral Thad Allen previously said
that the test will be considered a success if pressure in the well
stays at 8,000 psi or higher for 48 hours. So we won't know for a
couple of days whether the test has succeeded.

As AP correctly notes:

Now begins a waiting period to see if the cap can hold
the oil without
blowing a new leak in the well. Engineers will monitor pressure readings
incrementally for up to 48 hours before reopening the cap while they
decide what to do.

Interestingly, as CNN's
Situation Room noted a couple of minutes ago, the cap might soon be
re-opened, and closed again only
during hurricanes:

Admiral Thad Allen
releasing a statement to us just a short while ago…

He cautions
“This isn’t over”…

Very interesting here. He talks about
the cap as a temporary measure to be used for hurricanes…

“It
remains likely that we will return to the containment process…
until the relief well is completed”

So it looks like the
plan is to go back to releasing the oil and letting it pump
up to the surface.

So
is the well integrity test a meaningless PR
stunt, which is delaying completion of the relief wells, and
failing to bring us any closer to permanently
killing the oil gusher?

Or is it a valuable tool to see
if the well can be protected from further damage during a hurricane?

Only
time will tell ...

Hat tip FloridaOilSpillLaw.

Comments

[Jim_Rockford]

GW - I don't mind if you withold your retraction until Gekko exits his short BP position.  I think it's the least we can do ....

[Jim_Rockford]

GW - google is your friend.

[George Washington]

I was hoping someone would save me the time ...

[George Washington]

Question to petroleum industry sonar experts: is the sonar just of the sea floor itself, or also some depth under the sea floor?

[Oh regional Indian]

Hey GW,

Great post. Sorry to go off topic a bit..

Hey ZHers, please stop by and spread fast if you feel called...

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thanks,

ORI

[CEOoftheSOFA]

Sonar at about 120 kHz is reflected off the seabed.  When you get down to about 12 kHz, you get a few meters of seabed penetration, depending on the power.  Seismic has a lot lower frequency and much higher power.