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BP Official Admits to Damage BENEATH THE SEA FLOOR
As I noted Tuesday, there is growing
evidence that BP's oil well - technically called the "well casing" or
"well bore" - has suffered damage beneath the level of the sea floor.
The
evidence is growing stronger and stronger that there is substantial
damage beneath the sea floor. Indeed, it appears that BP officials
themselves have admitted to such damage. This has enormous impacts on
both the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf, and the prospects for
quickly stopping the leak this summer.
On May 31st, the Washington Post noted:
Sources
at two companies involved with the well said that BP also discovered
new damage inside the well below the seafloor and that, as a result,
some of the drilling mud that was successfully forced into the well was
going off to the side into rock formations.
"We discovered things that were broken in the sub-surface," said a BP official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. He said that mud was making it "out to the side, into the formation."
On June 2nd, Bloomberg pointed out:
Plugging
the well is another challenge even after BP successfully intersects it,
Robert Bea, a University of California Berkeley engineering professor,
said. BP has said it believes the well bore to be damaged, which could hamper efforts to fill it with mud and set a concrete plug, Bea said.
Bea is an expert in offshore drilling and a high-level governmental adviser concerning disasters.
On the same day, the Wall Street Journal noted that there might be a leak in BP's well casing 1,000 feet beneath the sea floor:
BP
PLC has concluded that its "top-kill" attempt last week to seal its
broken well in the Gulf of Mexico may have failed due to a
malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor.
***
The
broken disk may have prevented the heavy drilling mud injected into the
well last week from getting far enough down the well to overcome the
pressure from the escaping oil and gas, people familiar with BP's
findings said. They said much of the drilling mud may also have escaped
from the well into the rock formation outside the wellbore.
On June 3rd, The Canadian Press quoted
the top government official in charge of the response to the oil spill
- Admiral Thad Allen, the commandant of the Coast Guard - as pointing
to the same possibility:
The failure of the so-called top kill procedure - which entailed pumping mud into the well at high velocity - suggested "there
actually could be something wrong with the well casing, and there could
be open communication in the strata or the rock formations below the
sea floor," Allen said.
On
June 7th, Senator Bill Nelson told MSNBC that he's investigating
reports of oil seeping up from additional leak points on the seafloor:
Senator
Bill Nelson (D-FL): Andrea we’re looking into something new right now,
that there’s reports of oil that’s seeping up from the seabed… which
would indicate, if that’s true, that the well casing itself is actually
pierced… underneath the seabed. So, you know, the problems could be just enormous with what we’re facing.
Andrea
Mitchell, MSNBC: Now let me understand better what you’re saying. If
that is true that it is coming up form that seabed, even the relief
well won’t be the final solution to cap this thing. That means that
we’ve got oil gushing up at disparate places along the ocean floor.
Sen. Nelson: That is possible, unless you get the plug down low enough, below where the pipe would be breached.
Indeed, loss of integrity in the well itself may explain why BP is drilling its relief wells more than ten thousand feet beneath the leaking pipes on the seafloor (and see this).
Yesterday, recently-retired Shell Oil President John Hofmeister said that the well casing below the sea floor may have been compromised:
[Question]
What are the chances that the well casing below the sea floor has been
compromised, and that gas and oil are coming up the outside of the well
casing, eroding the surrounding soft rock. Could this lead to a
catastrophic geological failure, unstoppable even by the relief wells?
John Hofmeister: This is what some people fear has occurred. It is also why the "top kill" process was halted.
If the casing is compromised the well is that much more difficult to
shut down, including the risk that the relief wells may not be enough.
If the relief wells do not result in stopping the flow, the next and
drastic step is to implode the well on top of itself, which carries
other risks as well.
As noted yesterday in The Engineer magazine,
an official from Cameron International - the manufacturer of the
blowout preventer for BP's leaking oil drilling operation - noted that
one cause of the failure of the BOP could have been damage to the well
bore:
Steel casing or casing hanger could have been ejected from the well and blocked the operation of the rams.
Oil industry expert Rob Cavner believes that the casing might be damaged beneath the sea floor, noting:
The
real doomsday scenario here… is if that casing gives up, and it does
come through the other strings of pipe. Remember, it is concentric pipe
that holds this well together. If it comes into the formation,
basically, you‘ve got uncontrolled [oil] flow to the sea floor. And
that is the doomsday scenario.
Cavner also said BP must "keep the well flowing to minimize oil and gas going out into the formation on the side":
And prominent oil industry insider Matt Simmons believes that the well
casing may have been destroyed when the oil rig exploded. Simmons was
an energy adviser to President George W. Bush, is an adviser to the Oil
Depletion Analysis Centre, and is a member of the National Petroleum
Council and the Council on Foreign Relations.
On May 26th, Simmons referred to this issue on MSNBC:
On May 27th, Simmons again addressed this issue on MSNBC:
And he referred to it again on Bloomberg on May 28th:
And again on MSNBC on June 7th :
We have a right to know what's really going on.
Given
the impact on America's people, natural resources and economy, BP and
the government must fully disclose the amount of damage underneath the
sea floor, and what that means for the efforts to cap the well.
»
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Cheers! I followed up until "keeping supply constrained"? Production has peaked, this since '05. I fear we are about to be on the backside of oil production shortly. I think of this as supply. As in terms of supply never running out, it will not. There will never be a last drop of oil. The fact of the matter is, how difficult is the recovery of the oil. I would say that each field is different, but I see no evidence as to oil fields 'refilling' as some (Alex Jones and Russians) suggest.
Yeah the "refiling" thing just doesn't make sense based on the physics. As far as I know, there's no empirical example of that happening.
I accept intellectually that it's possible that there are vast underground reserves that have yet to be discovered, but as a realist, I also know that politics and other above-ground issues may keep that supply off the market for a very long time.
Yes, production has topped, but we haven't seen the exponential decline that you often see from a single reservoir. It may be inappropriate to even use the term "global peak" because it may not be peak-shaped.
Alex Jones has been and always will be a sensationalist prone to wild claims and illogic.
I'm actually a long-time Oil Drum lurker and I've read most of the literature associated with it, so I completely comprehend where you're coming from. I was arguing about this with people as early as 2005, taking your position! I've only modified my thoughts based on my observations since then.
The simple fact that extraction has topped is a sign.
Oil is a bluff game. People wont tell about oil reserves.
For example, a country like Saudi Arabia only exists on the international stage through their oil. Once out of oil, they can expect the worst as war as they will have to cope with some present times decisions which are going terribly against some of its neighbours' best interests. The US will have no interest in providing security once Saudi Arabia can no longer play the swinger extractor role.
Therefore Saudi Arabia will try to stay as long as possible in the game. This includes diminishing on purpose their extraction rate to let other players burn their reserves (current: Russia)
Yep, people calling today peak oil dont know what they are talking about. Peak oil is to be declared after a period of several decades to make sure that no player in the game has willingfully reduced its extraction rate.
Nevertheless, the very fact that oil extractors are concerned by this kind of game behaviour shows they are aware of their oil capability peak.
If the oil capability peak did not exist, they would have no incentive to manage their oil extraction rate (no, price is not even an incentitive as historically, oil extractors did not play the scarcity game, on the contrary, the abundancy game)
The exponential decline will not happen because of this management.
Globalization is a reality. Extracting as fast as possible is a profitable behaviour when you know there are other extraction fields, untapped and of similar properties elsewhere.
The US' way is to bet against the future: the future will provide more and better. In such a context, you have to dry up as soon as possible one source to move to the others. When you have all the possibilities on the table(globalization), seeing that the best options are the ones currently exploited forces a management of consumption.
Just to show I did my part, the lens used in the HD video was my design, and is on several ROV's working the BP site. The live feed is compressed satellite and looks like crap in comparison.
You've certainly developed an HD lens that is much better at defining the scope of the problem.
some more details on classified cables http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-08/state-department-anxious-about-diplomatic-secrets-bradley-manning-allegedly-downloaded/?cid=hp:mainpromo1
those of you on the east coast should start thinking about leaving now, before the government takes charge. Some of those gasses cant be smelled but are very bad . It will come with the rain. Already reports from Texas and Florida about oil droplets on cars.
"Already reports from Texas and Florida about oil droplets on cars."
Do you have a link for this? Thanks.
If oil is accumulating on cars it is also accumulating on road surfaces... If there is serious accumulation, driving will be hazardous to say the least.
google "oil rain" . There are several reports beginning 2 weeks ago. Spots on crops in large areas, as well as some dead birds are also hitting the news.
As the gasses evaporate from the gulf and move with prevailing winds those gasses later are brought down via rain . If there is oil on your car, i figure we are breathing it as well.
Time to move. This keeps up, i will need nose plugs by next summer on the Oregon coast as this filters into the greater ocean.
It seems to me a lot of us dont have to worry about getting old anymore.
If this story is true, we got other big problems. Short summary: Wikileaks has released 2000 highly classified US Diplomatic cables. To beat the impact of release of these cables, Israel may hit Iran nuke sites - before cables make it very difficult to have any reasonable justification - anyone have any insight on this?
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0611/daniel-ellsberg-fears-hit-wikileaks-founder/
No, wikileaks has such cables, but they haven't released the cables and Assange is in fear for his life.
The Guardian: Pentagon hunts WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange in bid to gag website.
I'm just going from the Wikileaks Twitter feed.
Some of what Manning said might've been exaggerated. But he deserves our support nonetheless.
I personally doubt that the cables are that important. The State Department is the retarded child of the intelligence agencies, and most of what it does is public knowledge - so long as you know how to dig.
"Allegations in Wired that we have been sent 260,000 classified US embassy cables are, as far as we can tell, incorrect."
http://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/15612005016
The cables, if they exist, haven't been released yet. Wikileaks isn't even sure that they received them.
And I doubt that Assange will be assassinated. Harassed, yes, but assassinated, unlikely.
If Israel bombs Iran, you can expect the next administration to take a historic turn and ratchet down or eliminate funding to Israel.
Ultimately, business considerations trump religious hysteria and nationalism. Israel introduces too much political risk into the system when it can be ill-afforded. Fuck 'em, they can handle themselves.
Isn't it usuall the case that those short summaries are short on facts?
One more time, Saudi granted fly over rights to the extreme North.
The Israelis, are bound to the A/OK, by the the Obumpster regime BEFORE it will/can bomb.
Something, I seriously doubt will ever happen.........
BP DOA. Simple as that. The hopelessly damaged well and the adjacent sea floor eruptions of oil will prove the be the environmental catastrophe of our time, and make Three Mile Island look like the tea party it was. Sell BP while you still can.
Why didn't we nuke this thing a month ago?
It is difficult for a human to imagine the pressure exerted on the sea floor at that depth. No one knows what would happen if a nuke were set off on the sea floor down there...It might cause cracks in rock formations for many miles in all directions and release an enormous amount of oil/gas instantly.
Strictly a crap shoot.
+1
Because that'd make it much worse? For one, it would blow out any other wells drilled into the same reservoir - so instead of one, there'd be many leaking bore holes.
Boop has a great point. We would have to really carefully study (you know, with lots of REAL engineers, etc.) the idea of nuking the whatever part of the wellbore before doing this.
Else we might wind up with a blowout 1 mile across spewing out perhaps 1,000,000 barrels per day...
There are no other well bores drilled into the reservoir. The two relief wells have not reached there yet.
CD,
BP Drilled 5 additional wells in the same block lease, without permits. One of them was reported on 60 minutes in which it was stated that it had to be abandoned due to well issues. This only gets worse as the facts come to light.
By the way many thanks for your contributions here - greatly appreciated!
No, BP has not drilled 5 additional wells without permits. It is nonsense
My understanding is that these were test wells, not production wells. Big difference. But you are correct, it seems there is much we do not know. Thanks.
"Why didn't we nuke this thing a month ago"
Rumor has it that all the Uranium and Plutonium in our nukes were replaced with Tungsten (borrowed from Fort Knox).
Hell yeah...nuke the seafloor, unleash the methane gas in one huge gulp.
Makes plenty of sense to the uninformed and scientifically illiterate.
And the planet is only 4,000 years old.......
Mother of Storms, by John Barnes, 1994
This futuristic disaster novel ... opens in the year 2028, when a preemptive missile strike releases billions of tons of methane trapped in the ocean floor. The resultant atmospheric heat spawns massive hurricanes that ravage the world's coastlands and claim millions of lives.
2028? I never realized Barnes was such an optimist. Actually he could have written a terrific book about the current situation, but too late now.
lmfao!!
Dimitry Orlov is looking like a prophet right now.
We should take bets on when the US goes the way of the USSR like he believes. I'm betting on dissolution by 2035 for similar reasons to orlov, now who wants to take me up on that?
i'll take the mayan calendar give or take 11 months.
dude... you don't even know what's going to happen tomorrow, much less 2035. stop wasting space.
Sure we do, read some of Orlov's work.
I'd put it at 2025, though I think that you'd have the first break-away republics by 2016 - I'd have floated California, but I think Arizona will break away first.
I'll take the under. Way under. This is all over but the shouting in 10 years.
So if I put bets inbetween 6-18 months I will win big huh? Count me in!!!!! I will frontload my bets too! I'll put 40% on 6 months, 30% on 12 months, 20% on 18 months, and as a hedge 10% on 24 months. Big monie big monie!!
LH
The question was dissolution, not collapse. As in breakup. At least that was my impression of his subject topic.
I'll bet much, much faster if an alternative currency is permitted to circulate.
You could run a two-currency economy. The private sector could run on the gold standard, while the government runs on FRNs.
Bad money drives out good. Gold would be stashed and only FRNs would remain in circulation.
See Gresham's Law at this Wiki entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law
I think your wild optimism has slipped the earthy lines and gone a bit delusional there. It certainly isn't touching the face of God.
When reporters are being told not to take pictures of the oil soaked birds much less ask penetrating questions to people who should know something even if they are reading them off a cheat card, they are hiding some shit that is so bad that they fear bodily violence if the truth were to get out.
The most likely take from all of the disjointed stories and accounts when put together to make a comprehensive news story, is we have a ecological disaster of biblical proportions. It isn't if BP will survive and make it's dividend payments. It's will the east coast survives and will the US default on it's bonds much earlier than anyone on this site suspects.
Look at BP's balance sheet and tell me if they have a 1% down payment on the destruction of the East Coast and then tell me who eventually will pay for this in money and in lives.
That's why we need to know. If we sit on our ass and don't organize a few million bat wielding people with area denial clearance devices down to the coast and to Washington simultaneously, those $1.00 Detroit houses may be end up being the missed investment opportunity of the millennium.
I admit ignorance on how to plug an oil well, especially one below the sea floor at over a mile depth, but I have the feeling that we will find out pretty precisely what a few hundred million to billion BBLs look like mixed with Ocean water if we don't start blowing some shit up now with some authority and some sense of urgency.
Of course I could be wrong, but why would we want to wait around to see if Corporations and Govts are lying about this, when we know from this site, that's all they know how to do?
Reporters denied access to a public beach on, essentially, no authority:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giozCCjlQu4
"When reporters are being told not to take pictures of the oil soaked birds much less ask penetrating questions to people who should know something even if they are reading them off a cheat card, they are hiding some shit that is so bad that they fear bodily violence if the truth were to get out"
Reporters are being told what to report on this issue because they are told what to report on every other issue, and they have been so dutiful for at least a generation.
Truth is the daughter of time, and kharma is about to make some margin calls. Let them fear because it is justified. There is violence brewing and building at every possible scale. I work with the desperate and financially dying everyday. I can say first hand that people are nearing the point where they lose their shit, and civility is tossed out the window.
+100
Crab Cake, I may have been deficient in not plussing you more.
A great observation re desperate people you work for. A good datapoint everyone!
Really does look like end-of-times. Prepare!
Bob Woodward is scull and bones.
yo Tyler
BP Builds a town for workers
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/11/bp-builds-city-for-oil-sp_n_609059.html
That is so.... There Will Be Blood.
Just when you thought the oil itself was the biggest concern the EPA released yesterday that toxic gases are also coming up with the oil at an alarming rate. EPA tested the air in the Gulf and following are now airborne: Hydrogen Sulphide at 1200 pts/bil (acceptable is 5-10), Benzene at 3000 pts/bill (acceptable is 0-4) and last but not least a little gem called Methaline Chloride at 3000-4000 pts/bill (acceptable is 61). OK, so we now have toxic gases heading inland to LA, MS and FL along with the raw crude oil and hurricane season is knocking at the door. There have already been numerous reports of fisherman (w/o proper breathing protection I'm sure) becoming ill. I think Clint Eastwood in the movie Heartbreak Ridge had a famous phrase for this many bad things happening all at the same time. So how does one now describe their gulf beachfront property for sale?
Hydrogen Sulphide is bad shi'ite. A friend of mine was poisoned by H2S sewer gas, is in the process of suing the town, but won't get squat for years.
Meanwhile his life is ruined. No job and health problems to boot.
This oil disaster reaches the point of massive poisoning by toxic gases (not to mention oil rain because of hurricanes, killing all fish in the GoM, etc.), that will do it, the system crashes.
Do you have a link to this data?
Thanks in advance.