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As BP Prepares To Evacuate Staff From A Burning Libya, Commodities Are Exploding

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Is this one of those "who could have possibly seen it coming" moments? As events in Libya overnight spiralled out of control, with dozens if not hundreds killed, the parliament buildng in Tripoli on fire, and output at one of the country's oil fields reported to have been stopped by a workers' strike, BP has said it will soon begin evacuating some of its personnel from the 9th largest producer of oil. And just to complete the total chaos, Iran warships are now going to pass the Suez on Tuesday instead of today, to the full glory of a fully open US stock market. The result: gold over $1,400; silver over $33.50; Crude front month over $93; Brent over $105; etc. Luckily, the US stock market is closed, meaning all this will be "priced in" by tomorrow, and the HFT levitation can resume tomorrow as if today never happened...

Some of the key overnight highlights:

Dozens of people were reported killed in Tripoli overnight as anti-government protests reached the Libyan capital for the first time and the building where the country's parliament meets was ablaze on Monday.

One of Muammar Gaddafi's sons said the veteran leader would fight the popular revolt that has shaken his 40-year rule until "the last man standing."

Anti-government protesters rallied in Tripoli's streets, tribal leaders spoke out against Gaddafi, and army units defected to the opposition in a revolt that has cost the lives of more than 200 people.

Output at one of the country's oil fields was reported to have been stopped by a workers' strike and some European oil companies withdrew expatriate workers and suspended operations.

Al Jazeera television quoted medical sources as saying 61 people had been killed in the latest protests in Tripoli.

It said security forces were looting banks and other government institutions in Tripoli and protesters had broken into several police stations and trashed them.

The building where the General People's Congress, or parliament, meets when it is in session in Tripoli was on fire on Monday morning, a Reuters reporter said.

The eastern city of Benghazi, where the protests began last week after the arrest of a human rights lawyer and where scores of people have been killed by security forces, was said by some residents to be effectively in the hands of the protesters.

Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi appeared on national television in an attempt both to threaten and to calm people, saying the army would enforce security at any price to put down one of the bloodiest revolts to convulse the Arab world.

"We will keep fighting until the last man standing, even to the last woman standing.

Wagging a finger at the camera, he accused Libyan exiles of fomenting the violence. But he also promised dialogue on reforms and wage rises.

In an indication of disagreement inside Libya's ruling elite, Mohamed Bayou -- who until a month ago was chief government spokesman -- said the leadership was wrong to threaten violence against its opponents.

Bayou called on Saif al-Islam to start talks with the opposition.

On imminent evacuations:

BP  says it is "very likely" some of the oil company's employees in Libya will be evacuated in the coming days as the violent unrest in the north African country spreads.

A spokesman for BP PLC said the company is drawing up plans for evacuating staff "in the next couple of days."

Anti-government violence has spread from Libyan cities such as Benghazi to the capital, Tripoli. Protesters are clashing with police and demanding the ouster of longtime ruler Moammar Gadhafi.

BP has about 140 employees in the country, of which less than a third are expatriates, spokesman David Nicholas said.

After passing $105 briefly, Brent has since retreated to $104.30. What else can we say - disinflation.

 

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Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:28 | 981437 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Not going to end well for the G-Man, he's sewn a lot of bad seeds......time for the fruit to ripen.....

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:55 | 982342 plongka10
plongka10's picture

You Yanks just can't help yourselves, can you? Libya is in Africa, doncha know?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 18:39 | 983112 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Rodney, you plonker! :). Just in case it wasn't tongue in cheek: Notice the quotation marks? This was a Libyan woman in Benghazi who managed to have a telephone interview with the BBC Radio 4 news. Since she referred to the foreign mercenaries as "Africans", she obviously excludes herself and her country from that racial group and continent just like the 99.9% of North Africans who call themselves Mediterranean in one form or another. Just quoting the Libyan woman to confirm rumours - no undertones/overtones or anytones of stereotyping meant. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:07 | 981370 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It is on now. No way in my opinion can president Obama look past the Fed policy and not want  to intervene. Remember, he ran as the president who conceivably is the smartest man in every room he walks into, correct? Are we to believe that this Fed policy is all about creating mass chaos and revolution?

 

It is starting to look more and more like this is the plan. You can't just keep ignoring the causation.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:59 | 981662 holmes
holmes's picture

The "smartest" man in the room owns it:

Unrest throughout the ME

9+% unemployment

roaring food and energy inflation

a pissed off electorate that want to end the bailouts and handouts.

Deal with it one-termer.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:08 | 981371 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Funny how no one in the USA cares.....

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:23 | 981426 DOT
DOT's picture

sarcasm ?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:35 | 981776 jomama
jomama's picture

it's a safe bet that 95%+ don't,

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:53 | 981847 DOT
DOT's picture

The "funny" part

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:16 | 981943 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Don't worry, gas prices will rise and cause a de minimis investigation by the american public, which will then be satisfied by some filler event, as yet to be named, but potentially correct, that will be utilized to take away more civil liberties.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:12 | 981388 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Tunisia, Egypt, Libya...any bets on who falls next??

Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, ??

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:16 | 981399 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Homo sapiea?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:21 | 981420 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

Bahrain. Too many people killed by the royal family forces. The shiites are pissed off and some are calling for the royal family to be over throwned. So shit is about to get real.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:56 | 981659 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Little piss-ant peasant countries. Kabuki theater.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:35 | 982047 Phlash
Phlash's picture

Just look out for countries with a growing trend towards Islamic (non usury) Banking and trade links to China and Russia....

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:22 | 981423 falak pema
falak pema's picture

homo phobia! bellum filia

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:25 | 981430 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

The House of Saud are crapping in their pants now. When the shiites in eastern saudi arabia revolt it will be the biggest black swan ever.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:53 | 981486 Crassus
Crassus's picture

OP Gray Swan. We take the fields.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:26 | 981431 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I can see that there are people who love geometric growth..even of hot air. Remember the law of diminishing returns fellas! What goes up too far comes down faster than thin air...We are moving into a century where the average life span of man will change gear...go into reverse in a big way! Mamma mia.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:30 | 981441 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It is all about the cheap labor pool and it need not matter the industry. The education is a simple enough excuse for the large corporations. When you break it down this country twenty years ago stopped training it's own work force. For what reason? Cost. Obama is not the answer and does not have the answer. Smart as he may think he is.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:33 | 981442 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Huge move in WTI . If the protests in Libya intestify and the contagion spreads even further then perhaps things could start getting frothy . Like 2008 frothy . Tempted to look for shorts because if the tension dies down then oil probably heads south . Pretty dangerous to just jump in right now though .

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:37 | 981456 rxmitch
rxmitch's picture

silver hold and save physical 

better than fiat dollar

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:39 | 981457 falak pema
falak pema's picture

See the post by 'Chubbar' above. Great read on thread about Dr Gene Sharp! Bravo! I enjoyed it.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:01 | 981499 DOT
DOT's picture

Don't need the book. Chumba put the whole theory into one line.

" I will not obey. "   That being said, I will seek out the book and continue to

visit ZH. 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:40 | 981461 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

Gee, I feel so bad for BP. Here is a company which has a stellar environmental record. Their care for local environmental concerns is legendary. Here is a company that has made it well, almost a crusade to be a good corporate citizen, refusing to do business with brutal dictators who hoard (whore) all of the profits for themselves, support terrorism and generally treat their own like ants.

Why, they are the best of what remains of the British colonial empire.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:02 | 981682 holmes
holmes's picture

I just hope a bullet found its way into the head of...

Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:05 | 981689 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

British colonial empire needs a nice Jewish Girl running the show.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358965/Obamas-invited-Prince-Wi...

God save the Queen?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:19 | 981733 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Let's see...it was an iPod for the old bat's b-day...send them an iPad!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:41 | 982074 Phlash
Phlash's picture

Is this the same BP that the Queen has a big stake in - The same BP that had its nose put out of joint in the 50's when Mosadegh nationalised the oil, only to be forcibly replaced with the Shah of Iran.

Yeah.  Theyre good people.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:00 | 982360 plongka10
plongka10's picture

I think you do the remaining 6 of the 7 sisters an injustice by omission in your analysis.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:53 | 982727 Antipodeus
Antipodeus's picture

You're FUNNY!!

"The British Empire - upon which the Sun never set.  (Because God would never trust them in the dark!)

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:41 | 981462 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Oil up 4.06%, gold up 1.02%, silver up 3.53%...today.

http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:14 | 981539 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Getting close already -- silver up 3.43% -- $1.12

I think it might take out $34 today. Gotta have it.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:46 | 981474 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Drudge reports Khadaffi flees Libya!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:10 | 981520 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

 

Drudge reports Khadaffi flees Tripoli, not Libya!

DaddyO

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:14 | 981542 gwar5
gwar5's picture

You're right!  Where'd he go?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:41 | 981622 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

if he took his tent with him, he could be camped out anywhere!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:19 | 981736 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Behind some "line in the sand", no doubt.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:09 | 981912 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

Makes me recall the guided-missile cruiser that I served on during a Med cruise back in '86.

We never actually crossed Quadaffi's "Line of Death", but we came within a few nautical miles. Went to General Quarters (missiles on rail) one day after a couple of Lybian Migs locked their radar on us.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:32 | 981763 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Enquirer reports Obama vacates his empty suit.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 10:52 | 981481 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

Gee, that UK trade with Libya, Lockerbie bomber for BP oil exploration is looking better & better:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/07/us-britain-libya-idUSTRE7163F5...

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:16 | 981545 The Count
The Count's picture

That was just smoke and mirrors. The truth is that Saddam gave his good buddy a piece of an ancient time portal discovered in Irak. Thats the real reason we invaded, and getting that missing part is the reason we gave Gaddafi back his bomber and took Libya off the terror list.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:11 | 981518 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

Looks like Moammar Gadhafi may just have to sleep in the 'ol Bedouin Tent!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:18 | 981558 razorthin
razorthin's picture

No wonder eBay is going apeshit this morning.  Can't get an eagle for under 37.50

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:10 | 981710 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Just got one for 37.01

kiss my ass

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:26 | 981745 The Third Man
The Third Man's picture

Ahhh....eBay. Remember picking up all my 100 oz bars for less than $700/bar.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:35 | 981586 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

When is this thing going to COME APART?

I keep on taping my footing. Waiting... waiting... waiting...

How have Ben's policies been a failure? the market has nearly doubled! Jobs are roaring back!

If the government had done nothing, we still would be well below 8,000 on the DOW and the economy would be a walking corpse!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:31 | 981605 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

No worries. The power of positve tinkering by the HFTs will see this as a good event. Just take as many hopium and delusional pills as there are black swans in the "Aflockalypse Now" gathering.

Alls good. I wonder who is sharp this week on "New Jersey House Knives", or "Lancing with the Jihads"

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:03 | 981671 JR
JR's picture

The price of regular gas in some areas of my California burg rose to $3.79 a gallon last week.  Yet “the sharpest knives in the automakers’ drawer,”  are reflecting the belief that the individual automakers and the industry overall, "can weather a rise in U.S. gas prices to $3.50 a gallon.”

Dale Buss wrote Friday in Are Rising Gas Prices an Industry Buzz Killer?: ”Analysts are predicting $3.50 to $3.75 a gallon by spring; some have it hitting $4 a gallon sometime this year. Or maybe these executives and their counterparts are only whistling through the graveyard. 'Frankly, we don’t know which way the consumer is going to go,' Stephen Girsky, GM’s vice chairman, said in an interview at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. “We need to be prepared for any oil-price scenario that’s out there…'

As regards this “high stakes” game,” Buss writes: “Nothing can savage car sales, and the U.S. economy in general, quite like major gasoline-price hikes. Americans began demonstrating the devastating impact after the oil-price shocks of the Seventies, and have done so reliably on other occasions since then. This time around, rising gas prices already are dampening consumer sentiment a bit. A reading of consumers’ collective psyche by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan showed confidence fell in early January below the December level and didn’t reach economists’ expectations, despite an improving job outlook and several other rising economic indicators.

“On Thursday, Bloomberg News released its version of a consumer confidence index that it calls the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. It showed confidence was holding near a two-month low and Americans were turning pessimistic about the economy as gasoline prices rose. Also on Thursday, AAA reported gas prices had hit a 28-month high, even though oil and gas supplies continue to grow and demand for gas is weak. The national average price for regular unleaded is $3.13, according to AAA. Only eight states are below the $3.00 mark.

“That's about $1.20 higher than two years ago. Gas prices have been climbing steadily from November when the national average was $2.80 a gallon. ‘At $3.15 a gallon, already things are starting to get a little spooky,' said Sean McAlinden, chief economist of the Center for Automotive Research, in Ann Arbor, Mich.’”

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:51 | 981837 JR
JR's picture

The old adage “Would you buy a used car from this man?” has now changed.  Would you buy a lie from these men? who now are implying that they can line up buyers for their new fangled energy saving cars when the very taxpayers who bailed out their car companies and their banker “partners” and supported the corrupt energy companies now have no money left to buy their gas “savers.”

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:24 | 981978 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

If it was just oil and gas prices, that would be one thing, but with food prices soaring, unemployment high, wages stagnant to down, states and goverment broke, and bascially more and more people realizing the massive Ponzi scam we are in because of the oligarchial bank/goverment symbiosis....the sooner the shtf the better for everyone; if the fake bubble continues on without popping, there will probably be a major war sooner than expected.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:32 | 981606 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Moving tent like moving index. It could inflate, levitate, to Caracas venezuela... "Vamos muchachos, hola Chavez, caramba, oil bonanza nonna possibila in shitty libya, I cum to great venezuela. We mekka biznis like befora what seya to newa deela like say FDR, we killa tha democracia with dictator bomba...we tekka wall streeta with mega wash of silva...caramba...I becoma kinga banka TBTfaila, JPMa, I marry Blytha, she be mi new body garda..like bulgaria amazonna...then i tella Ben baby, we go rida helicopta togetha to enda this shitty democracia... "

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:49 | 981634 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

That is MY MOTHER you are talking about!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Blythe

I may be a gay love child, but at least I have a family!

I was speaking out against the looting and the illegal wars before Alan and Ben blew the economy into bubbles.

Check us out sometime... peace!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqK_0BbZGJY

^^^SHOW ME WHAT YOU CAN DO!^^^ You call yourselves pissed off????!!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:08 | 981696 jomama
jomama's picture

you could have at least used babel fish.  that was painful.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:46 | 981629 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Big moves today....

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:19 | 981732 jomama
jomama's picture

big moves courtesy of my mug of coffee and bowl of oatmeal this morning too

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:32 | 981760 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

RobotTrader, thnaks for the charts!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:41 | 981794 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

CNBC on in background and some asshole on the air giving his opinion about what's going to happen tomorrow got a big shit-eating grin when asked about WTI.  Said "I hope it goes higher because I'm long on WTI".

That in a nutshell is why the US is an Egypt waiting to happen.  You've got too many motherfuckers like that guy that view all these events as a number on a screen that puts money in his already full pockets.  Who gives a shit if a $20 move up in WTI means a trucker goes broke or a commuter has less money to feed a kid...I made $200K and fuck all 'ya. 

 

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:20 | 981958 malikai
malikai's picture

A desk is a dangerous place to view the world.

-John Le Carre

Has anybody else noticed the Brent/WTI spread lately? It's come back in from its extreme of around $17 to around $10. Kinda bizzarre considering how much Arab oil is priced in Brent.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:29 | 982244 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I'd suggest you don't want to celebrate gap closure if they are both headed north at warp speed.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:26 | 981987 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

RT , with your sort of hindsight analysis and "its a trend until its just crashed" commentary , how are you not employed by one of the Wall St Titans?  You would be running their research dept or at the very least the Squiggly line, i mean , Technical analysis dept. Or are you?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 18:04 | 983005 jomama
jomama's picture

people just can't appreciate robo's humor.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:03 | 982565 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

thank you so much for the tip catfish mouth. i think all of us here on the board at zh had our heads up our butts today, and were totally unaware that gold, silver and oil had big up moves today. keep us all apprised of any new developments.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 11:51 | 981643 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

Is the SHTF yet ? Is it time to hide in the bunker?  Seems to be getting close. LOL

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:01 | 981674 bunkermeatheadp...
bunkermeatheadprogeny's picture

PMs should even be higher when all the fundamentals are considered.

I smell downward price manipulation with a later explosion to the upside.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:21 | 981964 malikai
malikai's picture

Damn I hope so. I want $10 silver before the moonshot.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:02 | 981680 SPACEPETE2000
SPACEPETE2000's picture

The golbalists couldn't bring in carbon slavery through the front door to make oil last and to distract people from peak oil so now they will try to disrupt the supply using political unrest .

I guess they don't need Al Gore , Maurice Strong or the climate science mafia anymore .

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:03 | 981685 Mr Poopra
Mr Poopra's picture

Is it just me, or is there some palpable satisfaction to this all happening the day following George Washington's birthday? 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:04 | 981688 snowball777
snowball777's picture

No justice, no oil!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:08 | 981701 SPACEPETE2000
SPACEPETE2000's picture

Forget about the price . Everybody is watching Wisconsion , meanwhile they should be watching the State of Illinois . Last week they announced a delay in their new state bond issue . It seems its not oversubscribed like last year . They could be the one to get the muni and state default party going .

 Once it starts investors world wide will re-evaluate the way they gauge risk for government debt of all kinds .

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:27 | 982237 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Kasich, the repugnant gov of ohio, is trying to ride in on wisconsin's coattails. Big demos there as well.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:10 | 981707 optimator
optimator's picture

Black Swan from out of nowhere.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:11 | 981711 jomama
jomama's picture

it's no longer a mystery why those assholes at the IRS are dragging their feet on returns this year.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:18 | 981730 onlooker
onlooker's picture

There is still more of Africa, South America, Mexico.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:19 | 981737 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

The sad irony is this will cause Benocide to just print more.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:23 | 981742 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The shit is certainly hitting in the fan.

With that some predections.

-Nobel Peace Prize will go to Obama again.

-Nobel Prize for economics goes to Ben Bernanke

-Pullitzer prize for extraordinary journalism goes to Steave Liesman

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:29 | 981753 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Don't forget Krugman's contributions to man kind.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:30 | 981754 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Does all this mean the Sheiks children will not be skiing in Aspen this Spring?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:27 | 981993 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

There will be sking on "black ice" from busted oil lines everywhere.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:31 | 981758 reader2010
reader2010's picture

All those events engineered for the chief purpose of strengthening USD.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:37 | 981785 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

Silver backwardation is getting freaky.  Fekete always predicted that loss of the basis in the monetary metals was a very ominous sign of impending monetary collapse.  I don't like the looks of the way this is shaping up.  Any of the oil producing countries could inexplicably start demanding gold only for oil.  We would have a real SHTF moment then.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:39 | 981786 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Hesus G$ Christo man

This is nutters.  Isn't this commodity price increase supposed to wreck the "recovery" or something?

 

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:40 | 981790 JR
JR's picture

Karl Denninger today from The End Game Approacheth :

"Spreading of political unrest.  And why the unrest?

"Exported inflation caused by global money-printing designed to bail out the bankster cartels from their bad bets instead of forcing those who made the bad “investments” – bets they knew or should have known were mathematically impossible – to default.

"It’s not going to work folks.  The “closed system” mentality of Bernanke and others has always been a scam.

"We have put through three successive doublings of debt in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.  This was against average 10-year rates of GDP acceleration that averaged 30-40%.  That is, debt service requirements at constant interest rates and constant dollar terms advanced at more than double the output of the economy.

"There was no actual economic growth for the last thirty years.  We simply charged it all to the collective credit card, accumulating balances that eventually must be paid.

"This is how we went from ~6-7% of GDP being "consumed" by FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) brokerage services to more than 20%.  It is simple mathematics.

"But the FIRE parts of the economy produce nothing.  They merely reallocate money from one person to another.  Therefore, they do not promote further advancement in GDP as their function is parasitic, not additive.

"And it shows - the compound average rate of growth has slowed markedly over the last 30 years.

“We hit the wall in 2007.  The increasing diversion of these funds has driven speculators and others into monetizing commodities as a means of trying to escape what they know will not work.  And while people wring their hands at the rise of silver and gold, where you really wanted to be the last nine months was in cotton, which has nearly tripled.

Financializing these products was part and parcel of tearing down Glass-Steagall and other regulations during the last 30 years.  By allowing banks and brokerages to involve themselves in trading these positions under the (false) claim that they're "simply making a market" we have created a monster in hot-money flows that cannot be controlled.

Now we're gonna pay.

“’Pay’ means high levels of civil unrest through the world, as the speculators double, triple, even quadruple the price of basic needs.  "Pay" means the overthrow of governments.  'Pay' means the impoverishment of not only third-world nations but Americans who live on fixed incomes and have limited means, as those people spend nearly all of their income on food, energy and shelter - and two of the three are skyrocketing in price. 

"’Pay’ means the alleged 'promises' you think you had made to you for retirement and medical security in The United States WILL NOT be kept, because they mathematically cannot be kept…

“Those who think that this "rescue" program is good for the stock market and have bid up stocks in response are fools.  You will soon have demonstrated to you, again, just as you did in 2008, how wrong you are.

“Why?

“Because without good wages there is nobody to buy the products that are produced.  And while you can claim that the "growth" is coming from overseas, without good jobs here in America it doesn't matter, because the nanny-state will have more and more demanded of it, but will have less and less tax revenue with which to provide it”

Adds Denninger: the government at all levels has chosen through bribery and extortion to allow these games to continue and the perpetrators to walk free, keeping the loot in the bargain.”

http://market-ticker.org/

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:25 | 982229 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

So... he is a Hyper-Inflationist now?

...or does he still think Benny will laugh his butt off, RIP OUT (again) system liquidity and ruin his reputation as "Scholar of the Great Depression"- by intentionally causing the Grandiest Global Deflationary Holocaust in the history of mankind.

Ben is doing a better job than most think. Even if the Federal Reserve Act gives him ZERO authority to manage the ENTIRE global economy

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:42 | 981803 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Benocide thinks he's Duke Ironside, now fighting the battle of Waterloo, against that great Bony man, Emperor of the Middle Kingdom, lord of Fu Man Chu, whose lean yawn is smaller than it should be, hiding behind slit openings, opaque to round eyes,  making prince Green-back fidgety in his britches. He doesn't want to end up as the midget who hoola-hooped in the widget on a wet day, on morn plain. Lay on, Sir Benocide, let he be damned who cries 'hold enuff' to the rising tide.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:49 | 982308 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I was thinking Custer.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:53 | 981816 Voodoo-economist
Voodoo-economist's picture

can i have a dip pls?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:56 | 981858 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Absolutely right, falak.  When they stopped buying our debt, they should've known better. Their adventures in Africa, sooner or later, are going to end in tears.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:01 | 981886 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Tears for whom? Many players, complex game!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 12:58 | 981866 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

A couple of posts on the role of lawyers in pre-empting, or fostering through inaction or misconduct, the kind of civil unrest we are seeing in Libya and the Middle East:

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/civil-unrest-failure-of-the...

http://strikelawyer.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/teachers-enraged-at-attacks...

Touching on the incipient unrest in Wisconsin as well.

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:56 | 982139 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

Before we start comparing apples and oranges, it would be interesting to know whether any ME countries even have a legal mechanism for redress of civil rights violations, let alone anything remotely similar to 42 USC 1983...

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 23:38 | 984145 Jerry Maguire
Jerry Maguire's picture

Since the point of the post is that the US doesn't effectively have a legal mechanism for redress of civil rights violations either, the only difference being that the US pretends it does, shouldn't you re-evaluate your "apples and oranges" comment?

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:01 | 981877 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Libyan military aircraft fire live ammo at Tripoli protesters, witnesses tell Al Jazeera TV

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:05 | 981898 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Fireworks show just started?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:57 | 982144 walküre
walküre's picture

That's disgusting.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:34 | 982259 Dabale arroz a ...
Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

Two of the jets defected to Malta, unwilling to open fire to civilians. Soldiers should have some critical thinking like these two (senior colonels by the way).

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:04 | 981894 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

I know Libya well, and I would be surprised if the regime there topples as quickly as in Tunis or Cairo.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:34 | 982025 JR
JR's picture

You can put this on my tombstone:

There is such a thing as the spark of freedom that cannot be extinguished even by the machinations of Baron Amschel von Rothschild.

The motivation that makes you storm a building protected by automatic weapons is the thirst for freedom – it is that chance that you have to improve your life…to be free. And you’re willing to achieve it for those who come after you, even if you must sacrifice your life to do so. This is the sacrifice the Rothschilds never understood.

I have heard Libyans say: My life is not as important as the freedom of my people. It’s the Nathan Hale syndrome.

And those who would say: this is the thirst for surreal law…  these are radical Islamists…  these are nothing but political opponents who want their own chance at wealth… are the voices that are to be pitied.

As the man said: Go to the videos and look at their faces and then tell me they are motivated by “greed” and “envy.”

And what voice could be more regretful to the voices for freedom than Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s: “I’m not sure the time is right for the Arab region to go through the democratic process.”

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:14 | 982191 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

Unfortunately, subsequent political history seems to support Napoleon Bonaparte’s views on “liberty:”

 

“Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self-interest.” To make them behave, one must play on both levers. The ruler must teach them respect, but the lesson must be given sparingly.

The ruler must also satisfy the people’s basic wants. Liberty is not among these. Few men really care about it.

The only thing modern nations care for is property. The masses desire equality, but “they would gladly renounce it if everyone could entertain the hope of rising to the top… what must be done then is to give everybody the hope of being able to rise.”

 

Sad... but true 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:01 | 982366 JR
JR's picture

“There are only two forces in the world, the sword and the spirit.  In the long run, the sword will always be conquered by the spirit.”  -- Napoleon

The campaigns of Napoleon, the bloody sweeps, the most severe monarchies that the world had ever known,  transferred the spark of freedom to the New World.  The spirit was the thirst for freedom of religion on the deck of the Mayflower and the persistence of men such as Samuel Adams, and the oratories of men such as Patrick Henry.

The spirit that was sweeping this New World outpost was the freedom for man to protect his God-given rights.  And in this instance, “God” was the operative word in that true Christianity was the foundation of the belief that men were equal and deserving to be masters of their own lives under the guidance of God’s protection. 

This was the guiding principle for Jefferson’s forceful statements and Madison’s careful words of law.

How, otherwise, could one explain the unification for the creation of America and the consequent growth of Western Civilization in spite of the greed and ruthless militarism of the world all through the years?

“I know men and I tell you that Jesus Christ is no mere man.  Between Him and every other person in the world there is no possible term of comparison.  Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and I have founded empires.  But on what did we rest the creation of our genius?  Upon force.  Jesus Christ founded His empire upon love and at this hour million of men would die for Him.” --Napoleon

Governor Bradford would have agreed.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:35 | 982043 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

BP.. BritishPuzzies.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:44 | 982090 squexx
squexx's picture

THE ME is falling apart, the Euro zone is in trouble, China is on the verge of a land price bubble popping, PM's are skyrocketing................yet the stock market continues to climb. BULLSHIT!!!!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:55 | 982133 walküre
walküre's picture

I see plenty opportunity here.

Just a different chapter to an otherwise old playbook.

If you're too negative and get bogged down by it, you miss out.

Because.. trust me on this.. as you tend to get depressed about it.. there's is someone somewhere making lots of money on this.

Blink and you're dead.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 13:51 | 982113 walküre
walküre's picture

Lybia's oil production is appox. 200,000 bpd by 3 companies.

Just Total's global production is 22 million bpd.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-libya-energy-factbox-idUSTR...

The crisis is an opportunity to play oil contracts to the upside.

No real shortages or disruptions from Lybia's problems.

Unless this spreads deeper into Africa or East of Egypt.. it will correct itself.

But, make no mistake if it gets worse.. the US will send troops FIRST only to beat the Chinese Army to the task. That is if the French and Germans haven't deployed already!

Oil supply is a matter of national security to China as much as the US and first and foremost the European Union.

Threaten the global oil supply and the global liberal multicultural love affair stops dead in its tracks.

North African tribal uprisings are quickly contained by cluster bombs. Paint the uprisings in a certain religious corner and the orders will get executed even quicker.

Muzzies are a threat to our lavish and luxurious lifestyles. Heads off.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:22 | 982446 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

All information that I have access to, gives Libya about 1.8 mm bpd.... This is significant. I guess we will see if Saudi spare capacity is what is claimed. IMHO, the emperor has no clothes.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 17:10 | 982779 walküre
walküre's picture

online production?

maybe the Reuters listing is incorrect or incomplete?

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:04 | 982169 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Crap, crude up $5.5 since Friday.  Can anyone say hyperbolic?  Parabolas are for sissies:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m5

Even Natgas seems to be coming out of its deep sleep.

Anyone think it is possible for Brent to hit $120 by Tuesay open?  Naw, couldn't happen.

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:15 | 982200 martinj
martinj's picture

beware of fat fingers tomorrow!!!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:22 | 982217 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

More like arcing servers and flaming routers.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:17 | 982203 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

So then the question arises, should the velvet revolution induce economic collapse (more likely) in the usa, or even spread into a domestic revolution (less likely) - could that mean Benny Bernakenstein, the monster master of the zombie dollar, will be remembered as the last Chairman of the defunct Federal Reserve?

 

Bonus question - during a domestic US revolution, would "Dancing with the Stars" be cancelled or would they merely change the guest line up to patriotic military types like General Barry Mccaffrey or General Schwarzkopf?

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:21 | 982210 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

As for Qaddaffy, he like Mubarak, looks more like a CIA plant as the time goes on.

A fundy Arab Crescent sure looks like the future.  Change they can believe in.  Allahu Akbar, to you greasy petro suckers.  Even Nigeria is turning to Mecca.

As for instability, even Cabinda is up to its eyeballs in rebellion.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2010/01/2010194414660644.html

Not a whole lot of stable sources of petrol.  Kind of reminds me of what started WWI:  The Berlin to Baghdad railroad.  Yes you fools, it was the BtoB that started the conflict because Britain was afraid that after they converted all their dreadnaughts to liquid coal, that it would become unavailable and that Germany would rule the high seas.  Nothing could be more frightening to the Brits than not being able to bully Germany.

Top that off, and WWII was started for the US because of the US cutting off Japanese naval supplies to Indonesian oil.  Japan was furious and tried to knock out the US pacific fleet.  The rest is history.

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:53 | 982329 Dabale arroz a ...
Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

Iep! hehe he says the same but in a funnier way. Black humor is always the best:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159#

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:22 | 982221 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Tyler, ZH must give a Prize to The guy that has posted :

 

AFLOCKCALIPSE¡...The 2011 Word :)  Just Excellent ¡

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:05 | 982390 JR
JR's picture

And almost Biblical.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 17:02 | 982754 snowball777
snowball777's picture

C'mon Banzai! Just replace the Valkyries on the release poster with some swans and you're there.

apocalypse-now-redux.jpg

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:25 | 982226 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

just plug the damn hole

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:28 | 982233 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Brent $105.69.  WTI $91.50.

Forget any and all, but oil.  Oil is everything as society's alpha asset.

Frankly, everything else is a side show.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:29 | 982240 Stu
Stu's picture

Angola Plans to Cut Crude Oil Exports by 13% in April

Angola plans to reduce daily crude oil exports by 13 percent in April from a month earlier, a preliminary loading program obtained by Bloomberg News shows

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:34 | 982256 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

I cannot see how gold and oil will be allowed this big jump over the weekend.  Somehow I expect the 3am gnomes to melt down WTI and drag the rest with it.  I can easily see the strategic reserves being poured into Cushing, flooding the stupid place. until everyone in town is hip deep in oil.

The real market is Brent.  WTI is a plaything of NYMEX and the wise guys.

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 14:56 | 982344 docmac324
docmac324's picture

Provocation for intervention coming to stabilize the general area.  Iran, meet the U.S. Navy.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:01 | 982373 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Well considering the average MSM idiot journalist doesn't know squat...and they somehow 'define the debate'...then yes, it will be claimed that no one could see this coming (and thus you COULDN'T of...barf).  I can see Andrea Mitchell types doing just that.

Iran waiting until the U.S. markets open is a new classic.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:05 | 982392 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Marc Faber LIVE ON Alex Jones! NOW!!!

http://www.infowars.com/stream.pls

bitchez!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:26 | 982457 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

All this talk about black swans, what about the damn albatross hung around the US neck?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:34 | 982488 walküre
walküre's picture

not long ago.. Gaddafi in Italy looking at "models".

http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2009/11/18/gaddafi-tries-to-convert-itali...

maybe he's hiding behind a skirt somewhere?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:40 | 982505 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Crude over 100 will sink the Economy into Depression.. looks like they are losing control of it all.  Just watch Bernank when he speaks.. heavy doses of narcotics .

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:39 | 982676 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Don't look now... WTI at $97.50 and Brent at $108.

https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:41 | 982507 romeplebian
romeplebian's picture

been trying to buy an icrash but they are out of stock#

# Expand + / Collapse -

SCHEDULE 2

NOTIFIE

 

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 15:52 | 982542 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

AGQ and DGP. In the portfolio for the weekend. Thanks Tyler!

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:14 | 982585 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Brent 108.  A lot of people are going to die.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:26 | 982620 Sizzurp
Sizzurp's picture

How long can we keep it looking like business as usual?  I suppose gas at $5 per gallon might start to really put a cramp in lifestyles, as well as consumerism.  Down we'll go into recession take 2.  At some point the market just may decide the jig is really up with oil and just flush the whole damn thing.  The fed reaction to this scenario can be nothing but highly inflationary.  Hate to say it, but we are screwed.  

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:32 | 982647 JacktheTab
JacktheTab's picture

Indeed.  Wonder what this does to soft commodities?

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 16:52 | 982718 Guy Fawkes Mulder
Guy Fawkes Mulder's picture

Mike Krieger gave a good interview with Keiser:

pt 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfWR-O9U8CA

pt 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDiPYWsToHY

pt 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utFKQOFRh1w

One of the things he talks about is the mechanics of how oil, food, and revolution are interconnected. A ton of other good Keiser questions and Krieger replies here too.

Mon, 02/21/2011 - 19:36 | 983323 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They had the futures and it was red red red.  I think tomorrow is going to be a very bloody day in the markets.  Especially when the commodities will continue up tomorrow.

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