This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

BP's First Nightmare Is Now Named Alex: Tropical Storm Heading For Gulf Of Mexico Ground Zero

Tyler Durden's picture


It was only a matter of time before "inclement weather" tested the BP falling knifers. Provisionally titled Tropical Storm Alex (currently disturbance 93L), the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is now expected to enter the GoM area as soon as next week, causing unpredictable and possibly irreparable harm to BP's clean up efforts. And this is just the beginning: as Bloomberg reminds: "Forecasters are predicting this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, may be among the most active on record...Three storms, two of them hurricane-level, may pass through the oil spill area, while three more may come close enough to affect cleanup operations and other rig activity, AccuWeather Inc. chief hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi said." We are confident all those who have written exhaustive multi-page investment theses vouching their certainty that BP is at least a doublebagger have factored in such completely unpredictable factors as 100+ mph winds and currents that bring BP's tarballs all the way up to Virginia along the eastern seaboard.

How is BP preparing for this contingency? With yet more promises.

BP is developing a new containment response that will help clean-up operators to connect and disconnect oil-recovery systems faster, allowing the company to capture more oil ahead of and following a storm, said John Pack, a BP spokesman in London. Some of the changes will be ready before July, he said.

And here is the Wunderground Blog with an exhaustive analysis of L93/Alex:

A concentrated region of intense
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the
central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This
disturbance was designated Invest 93L
by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm
Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is
located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops
show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry
continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but
this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and
Tuesday. Wind shear
is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong
winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean,
too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures
are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation
is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from
west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air
and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with
large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each
cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian
oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the
chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only
negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by
Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear
expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and
western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major
impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The
ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it
into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model
keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring
heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical
depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L.
Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern
Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will
spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:09 | 426509 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Destroyimg the GoM is GOOD for your stock! Imagine what a destruction of the entire Atlantic Ocean can do for your book value!

With just a little bit of karma, the BP oik leak will extend all the way from GoM to the Thames. Then we can set it on fire and burn those British motherfuckers to the ground


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:16 | 426517 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's just a bit of oil that can be a money generator for all the louisiana and other GOM coastal inhabitants.

1. BP doesn't have enough people to follow up on every claim.

2. Just throw in a claim, just for the fun of it and I'll bet you've got a 50/50 chance that you'll get a handout from BP.


Wed, 06/23/2010 - 01:31 | 428546 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You're one of those "Monkey Wrench Gangsters" aren't you?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:40 | 426565 Insert witty title
Insert witty title's picture

What about those Indian motherfuckers? Want to go back and finish the job at Bhopal sicko?

Whats powering your computer btw? Hot air? You seem to have plenty.

BP, Transocean? Haliburton? Nah easier to blame foreigners isn't it?

Who authorised the drilling in the first place?

Give me strength.


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:50 | 426582 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Sorry to break the news like this...but BP employs x3 more Americans than brits, its practically an American company.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:01 | 426594 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

This is going to ruin Bio-luminescent bay in PR. I don't even think I yet understand how devastated I am (and am going to be) from this event. It's like we're still in shock and the full realization hasn't set in yet. Hell, we haven't even assessed how much damage there is yet.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:50 | 426811 doublethink
doublethink's picture


Day 63.

According to the web site:

approximately 158,580,000 gallons of oil have gushed so far.

This amount of oil equals about

21,200,000 cubic feet, or

485 acre-feet of oil.

Imagine standing front of a column of oil that has a ground area of 208' x 208' (a square acre) and that's almost as tall as a 50-story skyscraper. This is nearly half as high as the 110 story WTC towers were. (Coincidently, the towers had a floor area of 208' x 208'.) That's how much oil BP could have dumped into the GOM to date. The question is, how tall will that column get before the well is finally capped?


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:48 | 426945 DosZap
DosZap's picture


We post here 90mph, and we know the issue.........but we do not (media, blogs,internet), ask the WH, WHY the hell, do we not take the help offered to clean up as much as possible on a daily basis?.

NO, instead, we TURN down ALL help...............ALL. Thank you OBAMA.

I am amazed the American people are not marching on the Whitehouse as I type over this..........

When this bitch is finally over(if  ever),we are very likely to not have any sea life left in the GOM.

Wed, 06/23/2010 - 01:33 | 428548 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

One of the tools of the Leftists is to use EVERY crisis to further their agenda, NOT actually to fix anything!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:12 | 426512 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Bring It.  Could be good for news organisations stocks.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:14 | 426514 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Whirl, baby, whirl!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:18 | 426522 breezer1
breezer1's picture

anybody know how to get tarballs out of a well?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:37 | 426561 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Hang on to those tar balls.  Handy for:

1) driveway sealing

2) the tarring and feathering to come.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:46 | 426573 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


"anybody know how to get tarballs out of a well?"

Looks like you have the potential for a country western hit on your hands. Please work it up and post it on YOUTUBE.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:16 | 426516 Joe Shmoe
Joe Shmoe's picture

Sudden Sea is a great book I just read about the hurricane of 1938 that leveled much of NY and New England.  In and of itself, it's a fascinating story.  But reading it right now, during this historic moment, made it particularly interesting.  Also, it reads well as a metaphor for the economic collapse.  RI, the pretty state I live in, has never quit recovered from that event 70 years ago

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:32 | 426553 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

My still living mother lived through the 1938 hurricane as a child living within 2 miles of the ocean and on the Pawcatuck River separating RI and CT. She still has vivid memories of not only that day but the months and years afterward.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:41 | 426566 Insert witty title
Insert witty title's picture

I've started your series. Thankyou for writing it and making it available.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:07 | 426602 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you.

I'm proofreading chapter 5 (the final installment) now and hope to have it up today or tomorrow.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:29 | 426636 Insert witty title
Insert witty title's picture

Printed out number 2 for reading on my tube ride home after close.

Impression after first was 'gee i hope you've got an answer at the end of this' followed by panic that I can't trust my own ideas and a vision of a slippery slope down the rabbit hole!

Nut house or enlightenment? lets roll the dice!


Again thanks a lot


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:23 | 426627 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

I golfed at the Kittansett CC in Marion, MA a few years ago. Its a beautiful seaside course. There's a picture on the clubhouse wall of the entire course being underwater with surrounding houses almost completely covered during the 1938 hurricane. My father told stories of coming up from Scituate, MA to his home in Newton that day, and seeing every large elm on his street go down one after another until none were standing.

Here's a storm track for this current situation.. a mixed bag, many conflicting models:

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:22 | 426760 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you for the storm track.

I've found this web site to be excellent. Spend a little time exploring all the features, including the archives.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:36 | 426775 velobabe
velobabe's picture

Scituate in its quest to rehabilitate its seawalls.


The town, which suffered serious damage to various sections to its seawalls during a storm in 2007, is set to receive funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for work on their repair.

this sea wall has a lot of force against it, amazing to watch high tide during a northeaster.

Widow's Watch Golf course†

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:59 | 427162 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

RI, the pretty state I live in, has never quit recovered from that event 70 years ago

Thanks to that other (un)natural disaster - RI politicians...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:17 | 426520 michael63636
michael63636's picture

Arbitrage anyone?  Prices of BP in London vs US:

331.20 -18.30 -5.24% 331.00 331.20 44,223,174 344.92 328.50 349.50 on 21-Jun-2010 As at 22-Jun-2010 13:56:02 - All data delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Pre-Market: $ 29.36  -0.97(-3.20%)

Volume: 5.26 m



9:15 AM EDT Jun 22, 2010


down 3.2% US, down 5.24% in London, same time.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:21 | 426528 michael63636
michael63636's picture

Storm vectors, point to point: Lat, Lon, date.time:

Pt #    North    East    Elev    Desc
1    11.00000000    -38.00000000        20100614.0545 UTC
2    10.00000000    -39.00000000    20100614.07450000    20100614.0645 UTC
3    10.00000000    -39.00000000        20100614.0745 UTC
4    12.00000000    -40.00000000        20100614.1045 UTC
30    10.00000000    -41.00000000        0614.1145 UTC
31    10.00000000    -41.00000000        0614.1315 UTC
32    12.50000000    -40.00000000        0614.1445 UTC
33    12.50000000    -40.50000000        0614.1545 UTC
34    13.00000000    -40.00000000        0614.1645 UTC
35    13.00000000    -39.00000000        0614.1745 UTC
36    13.50000000    -39.00000000        0614.1815
37    12.00000000    -41.50000000        0614.2015
38    13.00000000    -46.00000000        0615.1545
39    17.50000000    -56.00000000        617.1715
40    17.00000000    -60.00000000        618.1715
41    18.00000000    -66.50000000        619.1915
42    16.00000000    -72.00000000        620.1345
43    15.00000000    -68.00000000        621.1415
44    17.00000000    -71.00000000        622.0615

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:22 | 426532 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

Where Mad Hedge Fund Trader with his buy BP recommendation today?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:18 | 426618 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

he's done selling his position

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:19 | 426880 sheeple
sheeple's picture

that was one of the most pathetic post on ZH history

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:23 | 426535 Alex Lionson
Alex Lionson's picture

Poor Britain, one of its biggest bread-winners is going to be hammered by Alex in addition to markets...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:32 | 426645 jesus_quintana
jesus_quintana's picture

Fuck BP.  They have 10,000 employees in the UK (versus 30,000 in the US btw) and paid £930m corporation tax + £110m NI last year. Employee PAYE and NI was £490m. That lot probably just about covered the Queen's dog food bill.

I'm pretty sure we'll find someone else to overcharge us for petrol once these ocean-ruining pricks are gone.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:24 | 426538 michael63636
michael63636's picture

Location of Blow Out Preventer: Lat, Lon, Depth, Description:


Pt #    North    East    Elev    Desc
29    28.73904100    -88.38979900    -4967.00000000    DEEP WATER HORIZON

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:28 | 426543 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here.  Let's hope the motherfucking tropical depression fizzles or goes someplace else than the GoM.  I'm for getting the leak plugged ASAP.  Why isn't everyone else hoping for same?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:31 | 426551 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Only perfect weather in the Gulf, no doubts.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:36 | 426559 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here." 

I suspect for many it has nothing to do with wanting to see people suffer and everything to do with frustration that nothing we do breaks through the MSM/government blockade of truth. So a hurricane in the Gulf might have the effect of forcing many people and news organizations to pay more accurate (notice I didn't say more but more accurate) attention to this problem, as well as dozens of others.

It's all part of our insanity that we would wish for a disaster to do what we can not, which is to break the insanity.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:46 | 426570 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

+1.  Spot on.

'I'M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!' I want you to get up right now, sit up, go to your windows, open them and stick your head out and yell - 'I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Things have got to change. But first, you've gotta get mad!... You've got to say, 'I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Then we'll figure out what to do about the depression and the inflation and the oil crisis. But first get up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:53 | 426585 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Cognitive Dissonance

""I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here." 

I suspect for many it has nothing to do with wanting to see people suffer and everything to do with frustration "

Sure dude sure.

Ever see people mill about an accident? Ever see people scream at someone a ledge to jump? The worse shit gets the more we love it. Death and Destruction brings a little smile to our lips as we stare fixedly at the source.

People are wired with morbid fascination. It is second only to porn.


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:11 | 426609 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Based upon many of your posts, it seems to me you would at the front of the blood lusting mob chanting for the suicide to jump. After all, based upon your views, it's all just human nature.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:19 | 426621 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Compassion is an interesting beastie.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:03 | 426719 merehuman
merehuman's picture

some of us who are NOT in harms way, like myself on the west coast feel the stress and have empathy for those most affected by this disaster. It does a number on my heart when i see a live bird with oil all over it.


Empathy sucks, cause for me its like i AM that bird, i am that frustrated, hopeless fishermen.

To me these last 20 years have been the great drowning. Suffocated the truth, stifled freedoms and an immersion into heedless  love of fulfilling base desires.

universal law still applies, for every new low, theres a new high. We may come out on the other side of history a better being, living in harmony with our surroundings after a hard lesson learned.


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 17:42 | 427819 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture


 If you think you're not in harm's way just because you're in California, then I would respectfully suggest that you are a merehuman moron.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:15 | 427895 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

just a FYI Canoe Driver, "west coast" =/= California.

we in the PNW also have our poisons to deal with, and merehuman is fully aware of them.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:38 | 427953 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture

good catch.  thanks.  funny how I thought I read "California."  The eye sees what it wants to see.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426658 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Ask anyone from Missouri and they will confirm that there are times when a 2x4 is required to awaken a sleeping jackass.


also, you may ask the Japanese High Command.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:01 | 426595 breezer1
breezer1's picture

i believe most are hoping for the best but expecting the worst. trying to keep it light relieves the stress. everyone on the east coast could become victims in a worst case scenario. pretending only works for politicians.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:06 | 426601 fajensen
fajensen's picture

I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here.

What I like to see is the end of the US empire; The US has transformed from the finest country in the world into somthing like the USSR of the 1980's: A lumbering beast intruding on everyone and inflicting violence wherever it pleases, just because it can.

It took Chernobyl to crack the armour of the Sovjets; Maybe a shower of oil will do the trick on the USASR?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:29 | 426639 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

This is the end of America, folks.  Stop sleep-walking through your life.  This can be ended if People just realized they do have the power to stop this if they would simply refuse to go a long anymore.


The only way anything is going to change is if you make it happen.  Stop waiting for the government to do something.  Stop putting your hopes in Candidate B vs. Candidate A as neither have the answer.  Stop promoting Party B vs. Party A as the "alternative", because they're all the same, and equally stupid.

This is not about governments or politicians or parties, but rather about the individual.  it is the individual, doing what is in their own best interest that will fix this and all other problems.

Put yourself first, then your family, then your community.  But to make it work, you must


I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:39 | 426666 cossack55
cossack55's picture


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:01 | 426692 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I was just going to add my two cents regarding people's desire to see the worst - this looks like a perfect spot, right after Chumba.  Of the many "types" that post on this site, there is definitely one makeup that wants total destruction (plug in your own word) - whether for perceived financial gain, leveling the playing field, bringing America to it's knees, etc.

EDIT:  That last post from Chumba was relatively constructive.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:14 | 426740 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

You know, I used to be where you're at now.  Then it occurred to me: "what's worth saving?"

The people?  Humans pretty much are filthy animals that are worse than their wild cousins when it comes to cutting throats and backstabbing to get what they want.  Why save that?

Is it the hope that, someday, people will be wise enough not to kill their brothers and shit where they eat?


I'm not sure how much evolution would have to happen before a critical mass of humanity was able to internalize the concept of putting future and community ahead of immediacy and self, but it's a lot more than a few hundred generations.


So, in sum, why would it make sense for me to do anything to "change" the flow of the sea of sewage in which I swim?  They "changed" it when they created America, right?  One of the FFs said, "we have a chance to restart the world."

Petty avarice, myopia, and human biology took that founding to the US we know today in relatively short order.  It was a done deal within a few decades of the founding, in fact.

The greatest book ever written is Animal Farm, because it's a perfect reflection of how any humans will behave in any revolutionary situation.  Greed, self-interest, inside systems, and so on, doom any chance of having a sustainable, free, fair society.

So, I watch.  I'm curious.  But I have no interest to "change" the garbage we have now.  That'll just entail a decade or two of chaos followed by a hopelessly brief period of parades and celebration, followed by the pigs returning us whence we came.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:36 | 426785 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

cue War Pigs

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:13 | 426867 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Wow, that's rather depressing.

Well, the folks who made the Georgia Guidestones seem to agrees with you.  They think approximately 5.5 billion of us are "useless eaters".  Maybe they'll get their wish.  Maybe they plan to instigate it.  Perhaps the GoM biblotastrophe is their planned armegeddon.

But I agree, some people are irredeemable, and need to go.  Most of them hold office in Washington, D.C., and deign to represent the needs, desires and wishes of the American people.

People are not stupid by nature, they are taught stupidity.  Stupidity is an acquired taste.  Stupidity is what you consume.  You are what you eat.  Most people consume on a daily basis media which, inherently, is stupid, and so stupid is what we become.

Turn off your televisions and stop reading mainstream media news sources.  I don't care what you read, as long as it isn't mainstream.  It could be your favorite conspiracy site, your favorite hate site, whatever, as long as it isn't mainstream.  It's time we went back to thinking the way we want to think, as beautiful or as ugly as those thoughts might be.  Because at least, then, it'll be real.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:57 | 427154 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

I agree with Chumbawamba.  If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem.  Be informed and inform others about what's going on, become debtless, remove your assets from the TBTF, endlessly complain to your elected representatives about the mess we are in then vote them out time after time, treat others as you would like to be treated and if they are assholes walk away, be honest, be truthful because if it does not start somewhere it ain't gonna happen, be what you want this country to be that is what will make it happen.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:27 | 427248 Zé Cacetudo
Zé Cacetudo's picture

The greatest book ever written is Animal Farm, because it's a perfect reflection of how any humans will behave in any revolutionary situation.

Well put. In this case, however, Lord of the Flies may be a more apt preview of how our society may function as "things fall apart; the centre cannot hold" (that's not LotF, but still a fair preview).

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:53 | 427343 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I'm not sure how much evolution would have to happen before a critical mass of humanity was able to internalize the concept of putting future and community ahead of immediacy and self, but it's a lot more than a few hundred generations.


while I understand what you're saying here, and have felt the same many, many times in my life, I can't tar every human with the same brush. . . I will say that the US, for all the reverence people hold for the "founding fathers," began with the idea of superiority, as white xtian males, over all else. . . those "fathers" believed their sky god - in THEIR image - gave them "dominion" over all creatures, that they were more special and everything else was to be used for their benefit, be it land, "resources," or other-ed humans - everything indeed that wasn't white and male was arranged beneath them on a hierarchy. . . it was that mindset that brings us here, today. . . and yes, they came from european nations with their xtian myths of domination, leaving their spoiled nest to shit all over the "new worlds". . .

but not every peoples saw their tribes and surroundings with the same disdain and superiority. . . the first nation native tribal people actually had reverence for the land they lived on, and spoke often of taking into account seven generations when making decisions of sustainment. . . they didn't worship a father-sky-god, but held a mother nature sacred as life-giving. . .

I read a story years ago that has stuck with me - I don't remember where, but I suspect it was authored by Malidoma Some (who I heartily recommend to the men here). . . something like this:  a young man shamed himself by doing something (theft?) against his tribe. . . the elders called the whole tribe together, to make a huge circle around the young man. . . one by one they told stories of how much he meant to them and why, tales of how he'd helped them, tales of bravery, etc. . . this went on for a long time, hours maybe?, until the young man broke down sobbing, whereupon his tribe surrounded him, with hugs, stroking him, but most importantly, welcoming him back to the tribe, his community.

Nationstates exist in and of themselves, and everything they do is for the benefit of the nationstate - not the humans involved.  I'm with Chumba here - what is needed is the withdrawal of support, of belief, in the nationstate-as-daddy story.  It's time to grow up and be self-supporting adults, and time to stop acting like a bunch of spoiled children with "toys" - time to find or make your community, your tribe, and give your energy to THAT, and nothing else.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:19 | 427424 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Thank you, Cathartes Aura, that was beautiful.  I will look up Malidoma Some.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 19:50 | 428088 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

most welcome Chumba. . .

for what it's worth, I see you as a Howard Beale archetype, waking up angry and mad as hell, ultimately wanting to set everyone free!

I'm mad as hell too sometimes, but today I'll play yin to your yang, lol.

best wishes.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 16:19 | 427572 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

Regarding Chumba's point, below, that people are not stupid, but rather are taught to be stupid, I don't agree or disagree, I only note that it's immaterial to my thesis.

We, meaning me and you, enter this world in a time slice of evolution during which human beings are still filling their niche.  The ocean will only support so many salmon.  The rain forests will only support so many orangutans.  And, of course, the planet will only support so many humans.

FFs have allowed us to propagate in niches in concentrations that are not otherwise possible.  That is, you cannot have 15 million people living in a Metro area AND feed them all WITHOUT FFs.

From an ecological perspective, then, we really haven't filled our biological niche because we haven't had to.  In other words, without FFs we are overshot by many billions of people, but, interestingly, after FFs the population will spread to completely fill the niche, decimating forests in the process to make farmland.  But the point is, our "niche" without FFs would be akin to what the original agrarian city/states looked like.  Fill the planet with those, and the niche is full.  But with FFs, we have artificially enlarged, temporarily, those city/states.  If FF production was maintained at its current level, how many people could the artificial, temporary niche support?  Hard to say.  Maybe 20 billion?  Maybe 50?  Assuming we could avoid poisoning the niche, of course.

The point of everything I've written above - and get set firmly on your seat for this one - is that relations between humans over the last 100 years have been as good as they've ever been and better than they will be into the distant future.

Why?  Because the competition has not yet begun.

Why not?  Because the niche still is not full.

That's why not.

The fatal hubris of modern man is that he has not yet reconciled himself to the fact that he is just an animal, and, accordingly, that he is bound by animal biology and the world in which he lives just as is every other animal.

FFs are depleting.  The total # of joules per person available on the planet is now going down, and it will continue to go down into the distant future unless there is a massive genocide or aliens (or god) give us a new source of energy.

As a result, the competition for biological survival, which has been very low globally and arguably close to zero in much of the Western world, is going to be ramping up antipodally to the decline in available energy.

The constant war in Europe prior to discovering the Americas instructs us today, but, unlike then, when a tenuous balance existed, today we are burdened with a rapid decline in FFs.  The resource base of today, on a per capita  basis, is shrinking faster than ever before in any place at any time, if viewed regionally at the smallest.

The point is, the world wars, Nazism, Israeli brutality to Palestinians, US support of said brutality, Muslim violence, US racism, the cold war, nuclear proliferation . . .

those are all products of the time of least human competition.  Written differently, that is how we behave when we are least challenged and least stressed about our survival.

What will happen from here on in will show our true colors - animals, too many, with diminishing resources. 

It's not ideology, or education, or culture, or religion.  It's biology.  Try as you might, you will not be able to resist your biology.  That is, if "you" is anybody other than the few who  don't value their lives as biological constructs.

In conclusion, we, meaning all alive today in the Western world, don't as a rule comprehend how placid our world is, because, from our limited perspective, it seems tumultuous.  But those halcyon days were entirely predicated on the fact that we are in a time slice of history in which we are in the process of filling the niche, which in our case has been made artificially spacious by FFs.  As the niche fills, the competition erupts.

Hunger and morality are enemies.

With regard to the white guys thing, there can be no doubt that white men currently hold the high score with regard to perpetrating evil on others.  It's been in vogue for some time to rip white men based on that.  But it's a false satisfaction, because men of all kinds are biologically driven to the same evils.  The Mayans and Aztecs, both native Americans, would routinely rip the hearts out of human sacrifices.  Eastern US tribes would routinely enslave females taken in raids of other tribes and then daily rape them.  Black men sold their brothers into slavery.  Hutus slaughtered Tutsis with machetes.  Japenes caught babies on swords.  Would women do better?  Seems certain.  Biology dictates that.  Perhaps getting rid of the men should be the goal, but I'm afraid that women are along for the ride, whether they like it or not.  I add, as a digression, that the rights of women peaked and will be declining.

Of this I can assure you - this will not end in a Native-American-like group hug.

If you want to see where this is going, it's easy.

Collect 10 dogs from your neighborhood.  Spot, Fido, Butch, Angel, and so on.  All good dogs - no nasty ones.

Put them together for a week.  Feed them well.  There may be a few fights, just to determine the order, but for the most part, things will work out with only a few scrapes and bruises.

Now don't feed them for six days.  It will be the first time in their lives they have known hunger.  Observe how they treat each other.

On the seventh day, put enough food for 5 dogs in the middle of the room.  Take notes.

That is where we will soon be - the world and our biology demand it.  It is ineluctable.

If you think that reason will unite people to "work together" to overcome FF depletion and economic failure, I'd suggest only that you look at the the last few thousand instances of people brutalizing others rather than "working it out." 

Look at it this way.  Most people in the U.S. believe that the U.S. is not in Iraq/Af. for resources.  That's their biological imperative at work.  Just stick with thinking that we're the good guys and your biology is taken care of - you get the resources, and you breed, and you don't fuck that up by considering whether it's right or wrong.

If you sit back and say, "hey wait - the only reasonable conclusion is that we're there because the PTB - hate 'em all you want but they get it and they're not shy about capitalizing on it - know that we're in a declining resource environment and that's where the resources are.

Then guess what? You might be inclined to do something that is contrary to your biological imperative.

Don't prepare for the end of America or the fall of the economy or peak oil or anything else that is temporary and ancillary to the root cause.

Prepare for the niche becoming filled, because, in the end, that's what will drive the behaviour of your neighbors in this world.

In the end, like it or not, believe it or not, want it or not,

you are one of the 10 dogs.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 16:36 | 427637 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Well, I can't really argue with that.  It's an ugly reality, and an ugly future.

I guess in all my rantings, the underlying assumption is that my concern will extend only as far as my family and my local community, everyone else be fucked, because I won't be in a position to help you anyway.

I do believe we are headed for a culling.  My only concern is to not be one of the culled.  I am, after all, an animal.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 19:01 | 427987 colorfulbliss
colorfulbliss's picture



If I had the ability to communicate the conclusions I have come to over years of study and thought, I would have written virtually the very same piece. You have very concisely summed up just about all anyone needs to know. Sadly though, (or perhaps not so sadly) the masses will be unable to absorb much of the truth due to how very painful the truth really is. I guess that's why the majority spends their days sucking on the hopium whether that be a joint, the bible or msm.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:19 | 436345 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

Awesome.  The book will be out soon!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 19:41 | 428065 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

with respect FrankIvy, while I can agree with some of what you've written above, I still maintain that humans operate from organised belief systems, used to "explain" their "reality" - and while the dog-eat-dog scenario works if you are caged, limited in your movement, in nature expanding territory would also be an option. . .

and yes, eventually the whole world would be covered with eaters (dogs or otherwise), but I honestly don't believe it would come to that.  It's the created "need" for consumed FF resources that has put us in this small box - and in my opinion, at least some of that need comes from a mindset that "believes" all that the eye can see is a "gift from god" - free to exploit - and only worthy people get some. . . the bible has passages where "god" gives his "man" all he can see, the "beasts" included, man owns it all, by virtue of being created in his god's image.  Only when all the "resources" get used up, can the world be destroyed by his god, and he gets to head to the sky-heaven where his tab will be endlessly paid for.

and yes, every organised religion that worships a male god has its version of this same archetype - none of them place any reverence on the land, the animals, some not even on the human female. . . so it's true that it's not just the european white descendants that get the spoils, but it's pretty widespread that the dudes get the first servings.  It's THAT mindset that I make reference to, NOT individual "white male" bashing - I have many, many "white males" in my chosen "family" (having been excommunicated from my "birth family" for not following the rules of the righteous, I have had the luxury of creating my own from scratch) - it's not the individual's BIOLOGY, it's the BELIEFS that inform what I wrote above.

With regards your list of those native peoples who don't fit the "group hug" theory - the ones that elevated "male gods" were without doubt the most brutal.  I'm not an anthropologist, nor have I studied the minutiae of the hundreds of native peoples beliefs, but of them, those that were considered matriarchal had the most sustainable living habits.  Again, if you take into consideration the "seventh generation" when making decisions, the end results will be different.  Of course, we'll never see that, as the decision to race to an "apocalypse" is now a given.


Wed, 06/23/2010 - 01:49 | 428552 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Look up "Age of Kali", to find out more...

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:18 | 436343 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

"it's the created "need" for consumed FF resources that has put us in this small box"

There is no created need.  There is only biology.  People wanting more for themeselves.  911, resource wars.  These things are allowed to occur because Americans are too focused on pursuit of self to see them for what they are.

It is hard wired.  People will always want more.  In the end, every war has been about resources.  Defending them, obtaining them, whatever.

While I applaud your optimism, I think it is unrealistic.  Culture can't change biology.  We're in a shrinking pond.  The only possible outcome is competition.

As for the 7 generations thing and matriarchy and all that - it's not going to happen anytime soon and so I don't consider it.  Men run the world and will continue to do so into the near future.  Relative power will shift toward men as we continue falling off the FF cliff.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:15 | 427893 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture

Cathartes Aura

It is a rare woman who can articulate so much truth.  If you are also hot, I would like to acquire your unwashed undergarments.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:28 | 426899 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

+ 1000

Unfortunately, this would require people to turn off the TV make an attempt at critical thinking.

I don't even know what to hope for anymore.. I see some converting but there is a sea of ignorance that needs to be drained.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:32 | 426906 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

How do you withdraw your consent when the entire system is wrapped around you? Do you not shop in corporate grocery stores? Do you not buy petroleum products from some major oil corporation? Do you refuse to pay your taxes, Chumbawamba?

Just withdrawing your money from the banks is short sighted and doesn't change anything. The United States today is what Mussolini dreamed of - a close marriage of corporation and state, with the state's role being to maximize the benefits to the corporations, especially the largest and most established corporations. US citizens can be snatched, tortured, and even killed without due process. The US is no longer a nation of laws and has become a nation of personal favors, like any other banana republic, with the exception that the US military machine, which spends more than the next 51 nations in the world combined, is at the disposal of this banana republic. And the government is bought and paid for, if not by Dole or Chevron then by Goldman Sachs and Monsanto.

So how do you withdraw from the system in a way that actually matters, short of leaving the US? From where I sit, while there are things you can do to reduce your interaction, there doesn't truly appear to be a way to completely withdraw your support.

What are your specific recommendations, Chumbawamba? I am curious.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:44 | 426937 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

If I understand English, his first recommendation was to not subcribe to our (2) party system.  It would be a hell of a good start anyway..

Sorry if I took liberty here Chumbawamba but I could not help stating the obvious. He had tried so hard to make your post "appear" to be worthless rhetoric.. Indeed, it was not.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:39 | 427283 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

A perfectly valid question, Greyzone, which I previously addressed fairly thoroughly:

Not only can it be done, but it must be done.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:03 | 427384 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Glad you came back with a link to your post Chumba, saved me looking for it, lol.

Greyzone, it may seem a huge task, but it is done incrementally - it begins with a change of mindset, and you may be surprised how fast that takes hold!  Also, it helps to have others of a like-mind, makes it easier to dis-engage if you do it with your peeps (willingly - this is not something that can be forced on people). . .

What amazes me is that people, here even, still use the banking system, still feed the beast that is suffocating us all. . . but I do understand, I know things feel frightening and overwhelming, particularly lately. . .


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 17:50 | 427832 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture



  You are right, sir.  But consider as well that the old saw about self first, family first, etc, is also doing a lot of harm.  Many of the vampires on Wall Street and on Capitol Hill have claimed, some directly to me, that they are doing what they are doing, i.e., stealing, for their "family," and/or for their "kids."

  A better model for us all JUST MIGHT BE to put the immediate community first, i.e., what used to be called "the tribe."  After the tribe, then the family, then, lastly, yourself.  If this is followed, it is clear the nation (a collection of tribes) will take care of itself. 

  This isn't rocket science, America. 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:35 | 427087 desgust
desgust's picture


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:20 | 426755 Augustus
Augustus's picture

They are juvenile morons who hope for their video game disasters to become real.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:32 | 427080 desgust
desgust's picture

Maybe because they want to see some kind of revolution put in motion?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 17:38 | 427803 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture


  Face it.  Every disenfranchised bloke in the free (and not so free) world, with little or no savings and either no job or a job they can't stand, is praying fervently that TPTB are finally forced to suffer some reality.

  If your point is "don't hate the ocean," then you're missing the point.


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:27 | 426544 mickst3r
mickst3r's picture

I did a little research into offshore oil spill cleanup costs back at the onset of this BP spill. Apparently, light crude like the oil from this well, evaporates pretty easily and typically would evaporate before reaching land. In addition, strong weather can help spread the oil around making it easier to evaporate.

However, I have also read that the dispersant BP is using is also keeping the oil from rising to the ocean surface, preventing it from Evaporating.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:32 | 426557 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

light crude like the oil from this well, evaporates pretty easily and typically would evaporate before reaching land



Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:39 | 426563 Cursive
Cursive's picture

However, I have also read that the dispersant BP is using is also keeping the oil from rising to the ocean surface, preventing it from Evaporating.

Yes.  Cure worse than the disease.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:50 | 426581 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Unfortunately this isn't "light" crude as light crude is popularly known. This crude is quite "dirty", not just with or from the natural gas but other minerals, chemicals and impurities. In fact, while it's not "heavy" crude, it is considered more toxic that the crude taken from the more shallow wells of the Gulf. The lighter organics will evaporate off leaving the undistilled heavy crude to soil the beaches and marshes.

There is no easy solution. This is why they're worried it will get into the loop current and be carried up the East coast, because it won't evaporate.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:36 | 426656 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I'm certainly not worried about it getting into the loop current.  In fact, I'm ecstatic about the possibility, because as soon as dead sea critters and tarballs start washing ashore in Maryland maybe the clowns in DC will get a taste of their own folly.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:52 | 426697 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Unfortunately DC is safely "up the creek" or more accurately up the Potomac. And the Gulf Stream never gets within 100 miles of the DelMarVa Coast. But it's the thought that counts and SC/NC would be clobbered. DC is only a few hours up Rt 95 and one can place buckets of tar balls and congealed crude in their car trunk for DC depositing if they chose.

Europe would receive some free tar balls if that's any consolation.


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:18 | 427038 Amish Rake Fighter
Amish Rake Fighter's picture

the area around the Potomac is as polluted and wrecked as the area around the mouth of the Mississippi, one's an agriculural runoff fueled nitrogen soaked dead zone where only jellyfish and Keith Richards can survive and the other is producing hermaphroditic fish at an alarming rate

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:44 | 427109 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ya think I could get the jelly fish to autograph my DOW 10,000 (again) hat?


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:53 | 426708 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

Oh, THEN it will be a tragedy!!!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:41 | 426674 cossack55
cossack55's picture

And , pray tell, what exactly is in the evaporated cloud.  Think, man, think.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:53 | 427134 Amish Rake Fighter
Amish Rake Fighter's picture

 lollipops and rainbows

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:29 | 426545 docj
docj's picture

Pfft - you guys worry too much.  What could possibly go wrong?

( snark off )

Doomed.  So totally freaking doomed.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:55 | 426587 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


Fuck that shit dude!

Nostradamus makes prophecies until like 3500. Plenty of time left.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:04 | 426597 docj
docj's picture

Heh - that's a good one.  But sure - for the, like, 50 people left after it all goes under it's going to be an Eden-like paradise according to Nostra, right?

Of course if it's 1 guy and 50 Eva Longoria look-alikes, then perhaps it's true (for that one guy, that is).  More likely it will be 50 Rosie O'Donnell/Helen Thomas clones, though.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:29 | 426901 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

And if that one guy is Barney Frank...  then what?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:20 | 427043 Amish Rake Fighter
Amish Rake Fighter's picture

then we use a turkey baster....and then burn Frank alive for his crimes against Paul Bonacci

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:30 | 426547 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Per the Insane Asylums writing by Cognitive Dissonance, and the possibilities that others here and there are of like mind, I have decided to take a different perspective on the Gulf happenings.

I see the Gulf in its perfection, balanced and clean and spectacularly beautiful with excellent weather and climate. The people are happy and prosperous, brimming with vitality and joy. The damage that may have existed was briefly a dream and the earth heals itself from any of the man-made debacle in short order with no lasting effects. The wildlife is restored to perfect health and harmony. May it be so.



Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:31 | 426550 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Alex, huh.  Maybe they could name the next one Barack, in honor of our feckless President.  It'd probably menace the gusher site, then veer sharply left, driving millions of Mexicans across our purposely unprotected border.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:50 | 426580 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Well done.

Or, it could briefly visit the Gulf, then head over for 18 holes in Florida.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:09 | 426605 jimijon
jimijon's picture

Don't they now alternate between male and female names? But then again Alex goes both ways? hmmm, barack it is.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:33 | 427460 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Pfft - his mother's name was Stanley...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:40 | 426564 FASB 666
FASB 666's picture

If 9/11 was enough to spur a recession, doesn't this disaster have at least the same potential ???

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 20:44 | 428215 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

It should. The economic consequences of this could be huge and I don't know why they are being discounted by the market. Well, actually, sadly I think I do. Living in one or more big bubble that can manipulated at any time

And for some reason this seems apropos :


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:46 | 426572 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

NHC dropped possibility of this becoming a cyclone from 50% to 40% since last night.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:51 | 426584 I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Yes, it's weak and getting weaker.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:47 | 426575 JoeStealth
JoeStealth's picture

Last week I heard an interview with Joe Bastardi (sp?) from The Weather Channel ---- He argued that a hurricane would be good.  He said that history (with oil spills) show that a hurricane can mix up and dillute the spill.  He went on saying that we should hope for a hurricane.  Otherwise the oil will continue to follow the estimated path up the East coast.


Let's hope he is right.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:56 | 426589 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Dispersed doesn't mean gone.  It simply means greater ppm throughout the marine ecosystem.

This would be the same type of logic as a business, becoming insolvent and needing rescue by having the American taxpayers share the pain by bailing them out.

Er...  Wait...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:57 | 426592 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture


Fuck that  take the oil all they way up to those new windmills in MA. Up to Canada, across to Europe.

Show them what disaster really means.

US bigger, better and badder than anyone else.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:43 | 426679 Xando
Xando's picture

I think you're right, Joe, in that we really don't know for sure if tropical storms are bad for oil slicks in the Gulf. They may accelerate the breakdown and dispersal of the oil. In 1979 during the last big Gulf blowout (Ixtoc), 29 tropical storms rolled through including several hurricanes. One hurricane (Frederic) was the worst one to make landfall in history till that point. Long term damages from Ixtoc proved to be much less severe than all the doomsayers were predicting at the time, and the high frequency of storms that year may have been a factor.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 09:57 | 426591 HonestJohn
HonestJohn's picture

BP is accused of destroying the wildlife and coastline of America, but if you look back into history you find that BP did something even worse to America.

They gave the world Ayatollah Khomeini.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:09 | 426606 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Here are the names to watch:

2010 Hurricane Names


Lots of French names...alas no Tyler or Marla

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:20 | 426622 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

you know Nicole is going to be the worst.. she's such a bitch

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:06 | 426726 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

It's funny you should say that - had to get a restraining order against one, once.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:02 | 427855 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It seems fairly obvious that Igor is going to be the one that completely fucks us.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:08 | 426730 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Watch out for Hurricane Karl.

Karl Rove has access to the weather machine.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:29 | 426771 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And Karl Denninger has access to a philosopher's stone, WATCH OUT!!!

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:20 | 426623 phat ho
phat ho's picture

Oh look, it's raining/'oiling' again. The rain has such a nice metallic sheen to it. BP's slippery slope isn't going to ruin my day; btw that's the 5th tarball the cat's coughed up ...

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:38 | 426661 VFR
VFR's picture

what are the odds on getting this lucky. Dick Cheneys organisation Halliburton bought a specialist clean up and oil spillage comapny called Boots and Coots 11 days before the rig explosion who are now contracted by BP.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:46 | 426685 VFR
VFR's picture

Goldman sold 58% of the total bank's BP shareholding just before the oil rig explosion.

Thu, 06/24/2010 - 02:19 | 426921 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:54 | 426965 fajensen
fajensen's picture

Nah - They just edited the database to "do" the trades after the facts. No magick involved, just plain ole American fraud.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:52 | 426705 keepmydollar
keepmydollar's picture

Sell your insurers and reinsurers now.  If a storm or hurricane hits BP is going BK and the insurers will be left to pick up the pieces.  The courts will make them pay out.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:56 | 426831 seventree
seventree's picture

Let's see, if the payout is so huge the insurers are busted and the re-insurers are busted, I wonder who's next...?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 10:55 | 426713 DosZap
DosZap's picture

This isn't BP's Nightmare, it's AMERICAS...................


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:16 | 426747 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

If someone said it first, I don't remember.  You are dead right, it is America's problem. And nothing can be done to BP that may equal the devastation we will probably see.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:30 | 426773 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When the oil gets into the Atlantic, and ruins the Eastern Seaboard and chokes off Europe, it's the world's.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:47 | 426807 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

You have a point - and where will Tony sail his yacht, then?

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:17 | 427035 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I didn't used to think this skit was funny, but now I think I get the ridiculousness of it.  I hope Tony rots on his.

The Lonely Island - I'm On A Boat ft. T-Pain:

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:01 | 426717 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

Rhode Island only received a moderate blow.

The eye of the hurricane of '38 made first landfall at Westhampton Beach, L.I.

Proceeding at about 24 mph, it continued north across the island

and straight up the Connecticut River ... at least, most of the damage occurred

(as always) on the east side of the eye.

What was so devastating was that it was so totally unexpected.

Residents of the Hamptons were out on the beach,

commenting about the interesting fog bank approaching.

Too late, they realized that it was not fog, but water ....


Other residents, having purchased a new barometer the day before,

were complaining that it was broken and were preparing to return it.

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:27 | 426768 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture
Busta Rhymes - Extinction Level Event:

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:52 | 426800 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Now is the time to buy BP stock. A hurricane will increase the amount of fresh water and dilute the oil contamination along the golf shore. I'm selling gold and buying BP. 

Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:03 | 427175 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Eric Cartman speaks!  Respect his authorataay!! ;-)

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:20 | 435939 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture


Tue, 06/22/2010 - 11:47 | 426808 zen0
zen0's picture
  • Sure it is government information, but it is interesting.
  • Hurricanes and the Oil Spill: NOAA's Factsheet and Frequent Questions (pdf)
  • Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:05 | 426844 pizzgums
    pizzgums's picture

    a nice little tropical storm or even a cat 1 'cane would be good. it would aerate the GoM, help break up the oil mats and do little or no damage to the operations in the gulf.


    sounds good to me, i've been thru  many a storm and the gulf is always better afterwards. it's nature's way of cleaning up.


    you guys can keep running around like chickens without heads, you're good at that.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 12:10 | 426857 spinone
    spinone's picture

    The solution to pollution is dilution

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:44 | 427110 michael63636
    michael63636's picture
    Mystery solved: Why BP is down in London more than it is in US;  I wondered who was buying BP in US: by Eric Cartman
    on Tue, 06/22/2010 - 08:52


    Now is the time to buy BP stock. A hurricane will increase the amount of fresh water and dilute the oil contamination along the golf shore. I'm selling gold and buying BP.




    BP  Currency GBX  Premium Equity Commercial Companies

    Price +/- % +/- Bid Offer Volume High Low Last close 334.20 -15.30 -4.38% 334.15 334.20 84,677,288 344.92 328.50 334.20 on 22-Jun-2010 As at 22-Jun-2010 18:23:17 - All data delayed by at least 15 minutes. Detailed Quote for BP P.L.C (BP)  $ 29.66

    RT     -0.67 (-2.21%) Volume: 56.58 m 1:38 PM EDT Jun 22, 2010 DOWN 4.38% in London, DOWN only 2.21% in the US.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 13:46 | 427115 michael63636
    michael63636's picture

    BP. = Buy Puts.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 14:30 | 427263 Hephasteus
    Hephasteus's picture

    Hey it's alright. Haiti got destroyed in December and nothing is done there because the 5.9 billion pledged and collected from caring honest people to help them has not been given to them yet. They have recieved 1 percent of their funds till just recently where they got another percent.

    6 months to get 2 percent of the generosity shown to them.

    Get the national guard to evacuate the people on the coast and throw them in fema camps.  I dare you.

    Come on stewards of the people. Show us what you are made of. Let there be no more doubts.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:17 | 427419 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    wonder who's making "interest" on that capital, eh. . .

    just like the donated money for the nine-eleven survivors - look how long it took to get even some of that donated money to the families.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 15:51 | 427497 e_goldstein
    e_goldstein's picture

    oily possibly fiery vortex o'death #1...

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 16:34 | 427631 michael63636
    michael63636's picture

    "And , pray tell, what exactly is in the evaporated cloud.  Think, man, think."

     Hydrocarbons from methane to hexane are anesthetics.  Heptane and octane are narcotics.  They are miscible with chloresterol and other lipids.  These compose the structure of the brain.  As the brain absorbs more of these, the structure of the brain dissolves.  The masses fall furhter into sleep.  There is already chloroform in the earth's atmosphere.  One to two percent of all chlorine used to disinvect drinking water ends up in the water reacts via the haloform reaction to make chloroform.  It goesdown the drain into the ocean, evaporates with the water, falls as rain.

    We breathe it from the time of birth, and are at equilibrium with it from the time of conception.  the masses were born asleep and will never awaken.  It is impossible, unless you bup one of them i a room with an activated carbon air filter.  Then as they exhale the chloroform is removed from their bodies and trapped in the activated carbon.  Only then will the person awaken.  No politician in his right mind would ever do this.  So the masses are safely asleep forever.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 20:11 | 428144 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    beautifully expressed,  thankyou michael.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 16:35 | 427633 michael63636
    michael63636's picture


    BP's First Nightmare Is Now Named Alex: Tropical Storm Heading For Gulf Of Mexico Ground Zero"


    Technically, wouldn't this be BP's second nightmare?

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 18:35 | 427941 honestann
    honestann's picture

    Anyone more than 40 years old can see how massively the thinking processes of americans (and humans in general) have changed.  Even in rather thoughtful forums like this, over 90% of mental effort is focused on legalities.  Nearly gone are the folks who would be competing to invent creative ways to "mitigate the harm".  Hell, even folks trying to "get rich by capturing and selling the crude oil" would be refreshing in comparison to what we see.

    I am rather astonished that virtually nobody can think simply and fundamentally any more.  The overall "legal solution" to this disaster - and an unlimited number of other disasters of all kinds - is quite trivial for a "fundamental thinker".  What is this trivial (and should-be obvious) solution?

    NO entity (individual, company, organization, etc) may lawfully engage in any activity that has the *potential* (not likelihood or probability) to cause harm exceeding their own ability to "undo" and/or "fully compensate for".  Now please note that it is perfectly acceptable to "gain the ability to undo/compensate" by purchasing insurance to cover the maximum possible damage.

    Extremely unlikely but potentially extremely expensive risk is fairly cheap to insure.  We all have reason to learn this from personal experience!  When we get quotes for "normal health insurance" (which covers expenses above some very modest limit like $10 to $100), the costs are very high - often "virtually unaffordable".  In contrast, when we get quotes for "catastrophic health insurance" (which covers expenses above some very substantial limit like $10,000 to $100,000 or even $1,000,000), the costs are very, very much lower.

    On the insurance company side, the common and sensible practice is to spread the risk for any potentially huge expense across many insurance companies.  Spreading a "catastrophy policy" across 10 or 100 or more insurers yields huge benefits for both insurers and insured.  First, when any catastrophic loss occurs, the damage to the balance sheet of any one insurer is massively reduced.  Second, the insured is protected against not being paid because his insurer has too few assets to compensate the massive loss - because the assets of all 10, 100 or 1000 insurers will be more than sufficient to cover the losses.

    The fiction we call "government" is a massively destructive travesty - a pack of predators who prey upon the masses.  Otherwise they would implement a few utterly simple, ethical, fundamental rules or laws like the above - then go on vacation and leave us alone.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 20:33 | 428180 Canoe Driver
    Canoe Driver's picture

    your last paragraph is spot on.  as to the rest of your rant, not quite.  there is no law generally prohibiting all action which incurs risk beyond capacity to compensate. most human beings are penniless, and each has the capacity to inflict damage through negligence and beyond his or her ability to pay. 

    corporations, furthermore, are organized specifically to avoid significant liability, and to stop all liability at the corporate level, before it reaches any individual.  at the same time, the financial system concentrates all the wealth in private hands, where it can't be reached due to corporate law. 

    and insurance companies have always folded, and will continue to fold, when liability becomes excessive.

    what is needed, and is very unlikely to happen, is for courts and legislatures to impose PERSONAL liability on corporate officers when their behavior is unreasonable or illegal.  despite laws on the books to this effect, this is a can of worms no one with assets wants to open.


    Tue, 06/29/2010 - 01:40 | 440720 honestann
    honestann's picture

    Well, absolutely the executives should have 100% of their assets at risk.  And I understand the law is not the way I mentioned - I'm saying that's the way it should be.  The whole concept of "limited liability" is utterly criminal and predatory.

    I also didn't mean to imply individuals should be required to have insurance to cover the most damaging consequences they could conceivably cause.  However, all their assets are at risk, which is appropriate.

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 21:09 | 428246 Arkadaba
    Arkadaba's picture

    spelling error!

    Tue, 06/22/2010 - 21:08 | 428252 Arkadaba
    Arkadaba's picture

    A hurricane may help or hurt on clean up depending on which way the winds blow.

    What I think that will happen is that any hurricane activity will be used to try to diminish BPs liability - it sucks - but if you are are a business owner, it is a good defense. Even as a kid - yes I spilled the ketchup on the table but my big brother put it on the walls (worked like a charm).

    Fri, 02/25/2011 - 08:34 | 996487 george22
    george22's picture

    Unfortunately DC is safely "up the creek" or more accurately up the Potomac. And the Gulf Stream never gets within 100 miles of the DelMarVa Coast. But it's the thought that counts and SC/NC would be clobbered. DC is only a few hours up Rt 95 and one can place buckets of tar balls and congealed crude in their car trunk for DC depositing if they chose.

    Europe would receive some free tar balls if that's any consolation.

    evisu watches|70-630|117-102|thomas sabo watches

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!