BP's First Nightmare Is Now Named Alex: Tropical Storm Heading For Gulf Of Mexico Ground Zero

Tyler Durden's picture

It was only a matter of time before "inclement weather" tested the BP falling knifers. Provisionally titled Tropical Storm Alex (currently disturbance 93L), the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is now expected to enter the GoM area as soon as next week, causing unpredictable and possibly irreparable harm to BP's clean up efforts. And this is just the beginning: as Bloomberg reminds: "Forecasters are predicting this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, may be among the most active on record...Three storms, two of them hurricane-level, may pass through the oil spill area, while three more may come close enough to affect cleanup operations and other rig activity, AccuWeather Inc. chief hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi said." We are confident all those who have written exhaustive multi-page investment theses vouching their certainty that BP is at least a doublebagger have factored in such completely unpredictable factors as 100+ mph winds and currents that bring BP's tarballs all the way up to Virginia along the eastern seaboard.

How is BP preparing for this contingency? With yet more promises.

BP is developing a new containment response that will help clean-up operators to connect and disconnect oil-recovery systems faster, allowing the company to capture more oil ahead of and following a storm, said John Pack, a BP spokesman in London. Some of the changes will be ready before July, he said.

And here is the Wunderground Blog with an exhaustive analysis of L93/Alex:

A concentrated region of intense
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the
central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This
disturbance was designated Invest 93L
by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm
Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is
located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops
show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry
continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but
this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and
Tuesday. Wind shear
is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong
winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean,
too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures
are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation
is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from
west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air
and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with
large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each
cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian
oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the
chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only
negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC
is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by
Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear
expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and
western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major
impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The
ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it
into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model
keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring
heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical
depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L.
Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern
Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will
spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.

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E pluribus unum's picture

Destroyimg the GoM is GOOD for your stock! Imagine what a destruction of the entire Atlantic Ocean can do for your book value!

With just a little bit of karma, the BP oik leak will extend all the way from GoM to the Thames. Then we can set it on fire and burn those British motherfuckers to the ground

 

Sudden Debt's picture

It's just a bit of oil that can be a money generator for all the louisiana and other GOM coastal inhabitants.

1. BP doesn't have enough people to follow up on every claim.

2. Just throw in a claim, just for the fun of it and I'll bet you've got a 50/50 chance that you'll get a handout from BP.

 

StychoKiller's picture

You're one of those "Monkey Wrench Gangsters" aren't you?

Insert witty title's picture

What about those Indian motherfuckers? Want to go back and finish the job at Bhopal sicko?

Whats powering your computer btw? Hot air? You seem to have plenty.

BP, Transocean? Haliburton? Nah easier to blame foreigners isn't it?

Who authorised the drilling in the first place?

Give me strength.

Moron.

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Sorry to break the news like this...but BP employs x3 more Americans than brits, its practically an American company.

downrodeo's picture

This is going to ruin Bio-luminescent bay in PR. I don't even think I yet understand how devastated I am (and am going to be) from this event. It's like we're still in shock and the full realization hasn't set in yet. Hell, we haven't even assessed how much damage there is yet.

doublethink's picture

 

Day 63.

According to the web site:

http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/spill_cam/

approximately 158,580,000 gallons of oil have gushed so far.

This amount of oil equals about

21,200,000 cubic feet, or

485 acre-feet of oil.

Imagine standing front of a column of oil that has a ground area of 208' x 208' (a square acre) and that's almost as tall as a 50-story skyscraper. This is nearly half as high as the 110 story WTC towers were. (Coincidently, the towers had a floor area of 208' x 208'.) That's how much oil BP could have dumped into the GOM to date. The question is, how tall will that column get before the well is finally capped?

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6637#more

 

DosZap's picture

double,

We post here 90mph, and we know the issue.........but we do not (media, blogs,internet), ask the WH, WHY the hell, do we not take the help offered to clean up as much as possible on a daily basis?.

NO, instead, we TURN down ALL help...............ALL. Thank you OBAMA.

I am amazed the American people are not marching on the Whitehouse as I type over this..........

When this bitch is finally over(if  ever),we are very likely to not have any sea life left in the GOM.

StychoKiller's picture

One of the tools of the Leftists is to use EVERY crisis to further their agenda, NOT actually to fix anything!

TBT or not TBT's picture

Bring It.  Could be good for news organisations stocks.

breezer1's picture

anybody know how to get tarballs out of a well?

Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Hang on to those tar balls.  Handy for:

1) driveway sealing

2) the tarring and feathering to come.

Gully Foyle's picture

breezer1 

"anybody know how to get tarballs out of a well?"

Looks like you have the potential for a country western hit on your hands. Please work it up and post it on YOUTUBE.

Joe Shmoe's picture

Sudden Sea is a great book I just read about the hurricane of 1938 that leveled much of NY and New England.  In and of itself, it's a fascinating story.  But reading it right now, during this historic moment, made it particularly interesting.  Also, it reads well as a metaphor for the economic collapse.  RI, the pretty state I live in, has never quit recovered from that event 70 years ago

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

My still living mother lived through the 1938 hurricane as a child living within 2 miles of the ocean and on the Pawcatuck River separating RI and CT. She still has vivid memories of not only that day but the months and years afterward.

Insert witty title's picture

I've started your series. Thankyou for writing it and making it available.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you.

I'm proofreading chapter 5 (the final installment) now and hope to have it up today or tomorrow.

Insert witty title's picture

Printed out number 2 for reading on my tube ride home after close.

Impression after first was 'gee i hope you've got an answer at the end of this' followed by panic that I can't trust my own ideas and a vision of a slippery slope down the rabbit hole!

Nut house or enlightenment? lets roll the dice!

 

Again thanks a lot

 

aint no fortunate son's picture

I golfed at the Kittansett CC in Marion, MA a few years ago. Its a beautiful seaside course. There's a picture on the clubhouse wall of the entire course being underwater with surrounding houses almost completely covered during the 1938 hurricane. My father told stories of coming up from Scituate, MA to his home in Newton that day, and seeing every large elm on his street go down one after another until none were standing.

Here's a storm track for this current situation.. a mixed bag, many conflicting models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201093_model.html#a_topad

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you for the storm track.

I've found this web site to be excellent. Spend a little time exploring all the features, including the archives.

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

velobabe's picture

Scituate in its quest to rehabilitate its seawalls.

 

The town, which suffered serious damage to various sections to its seawalls during a storm in 2007, is set to receive funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for work on their repair.

this sea wall has a lot of force against it, amazing to watch high tide during a northeaster.

Widow's Watch Golf course†

Bendromeda Strain's picture

RI, the pretty state I live in, has never quit recovered from that event 70 years ago

Thanks to that other (un)natural disaster - RI politicians...

michael63636's picture

Arbitrage anyone?  Prices of BP in London vs US:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-news/stocks/excha...

331.20 -18.30 -5.24% 331.00 331.20 44,223,174 344.92 328.50 349.50 on 21-Jun-2010 As at 22-Jun-2010 13:56:02 - All data delayed by at least 15 minutes.

 

 

https://trading.investrade.com/

Pre-Market: $ 29.36  -0.97(-3.20%)

Volume: 5.26 m

 

 

9:15 AM EDT Jun 22, 2010

 

down 3.2% US, down 5.24% in London, same time.

michael63636's picture

Storm vectors, point to point: Lat, Lon, date.time:

Pt #    North    East    Elev    Desc
1    11.00000000    -38.00000000        20100614.0545 UTC
2    10.00000000    -39.00000000    20100614.07450000    20100614.0645 UTC
3    10.00000000    -39.00000000        20100614.0745 UTC
4    12.00000000    -40.00000000        20100614.1045 UTC
30    10.00000000    -41.00000000        0614.1145 UTC
31    10.00000000    -41.00000000        0614.1315 UTC
32    12.50000000    -40.00000000        0614.1445 UTC
33    12.50000000    -40.50000000        0614.1545 UTC
34    13.00000000    -40.00000000        0614.1645 UTC
35    13.00000000    -39.00000000        0614.1745 UTC
36    13.50000000    -39.00000000        0614.1815
37    12.00000000    -41.50000000        0614.2015
38    13.00000000    -46.00000000        0615.1545
39    17.50000000    -56.00000000        617.1715
40    17.00000000    -60.00000000        618.1715
41    18.00000000    -66.50000000        619.1915
42    16.00000000    -72.00000000        620.1345
43    15.00000000    -68.00000000        621.1415
44    17.00000000    -71.00000000        622.0615

Mitchman's picture

Where Mad Hedge Fund Trader with his buy BP recommendation today?

sheeple's picture

that was one of the most pathetic post on ZH history

Alex Lionson's picture

Poor Britain, one of its biggest bread-winners is going to be hammered by Alex in addition to markets...

jesus_quintana's picture

Fuck BP.  They have 10,000 employees in the UK (versus 30,000 in the US btw) and paid £930m corporation tax + £110m NI last year. Employee PAYE and NI was £490m. That lot probably just about covered the Queen's dog food bill.

I'm pretty sure we'll find someone else to overcharge us for petrol once these ocean-ruining pricks are gone.

michael63636's picture

Location of Blow Out Preventer: Lat, Lon, Depth, Description:

 

Pt #    North    East    Elev    Desc
29    28.73904100    -88.38979900    -4967.00000000    DEEP WATER HORIZON

Commander Cody's picture

I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here.  Let's hope the motherfucking tropical depression fizzles or goes someplace else than the GoM.  I'm for getting the leak plugged ASAP.  Why isn't everyone else hoping for same?

goldfish1's picture

Only perfect weather in the Gulf, no doubts.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here." 

I suspect for many it has nothing to do with wanting to see people suffer and everything to do with frustration that nothing we do breaks through the MSM/government blockade of truth. So a hurricane in the Gulf might have the effect of forcing many people and news organizations to pay more accurate (notice I didn't say more but more accurate) attention to this problem, as well as dozens of others.

It's all part of our insanity that we would wish for a disaster to do what we can not, which is to break the insanity.

Jeff Lebowski's picture

+1.  Spot on.

'I'M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!' I want you to get up right now, sit up, go to your windows, open them and stick your head out and yell - 'I'm as mad as hell and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Things have got to change. But first, you've gotta get mad!... You've got to say, 'I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!' Then we'll figure out what to do about the depression and the inflation and the oil crisis. But first get up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it.

Gully Foyle's picture

Cognitive Dissonance

""I'm sorry, but I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here." 


I suspect for many it has nothing to do with wanting to see people suffer and everything to do with frustration "

Sure dude sure.

Ever see people mill about an accident? Ever see people scream at someone a ledge to jump? The worse shit gets the more we love it. Death and Destruction brings a little smile to our lips as we stare fixedly at the source.

People are wired with morbid fascination. It is second only to porn.

 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Based upon many of your posts, it seems to me you would at the front of the blood lusting mob chanting for the suicide to jump. After all, based upon your views, it's all just human nature.

LeBalance's picture

Compassion is an interesting beastie.

merehuman's picture

some of us who are NOT in harms way, like myself on the west coast feel the stress and have empathy for those most affected by this disaster. It does a number on my heart when i see a live bird with oil all over it.

 

Empathy sucks, cause for me its like i AM that bird, i am that frustrated, hopeless fishermen.

To me these last 20 years have been the great drowning. Suffocated the truth, stifled freedoms and an immersion into heedless  love of fulfilling base desires.

universal law still applies, for every new low, theres a new high. We may come out on the other side of history a better being, living in harmony with our surroundings after a hard lesson learned.

.

Canoe Driver's picture

merehuman

 If you think you're not in harm's way just because you're in California, then I would respectfully suggest that you are a merehuman moron.

Cathartes Aura's picture

just a FYI Canoe Driver, "west coast" =/= California.

we in the PNW also have our poisons to deal with, and merehuman is fully aware of them.

Canoe Driver's picture

good catch.  thanks.  funny how I thought I read "California."  The eye sees what it wants to see.

cossack55's picture

Ask anyone from Missouri and they will confirm that there are times when a 2x4 is required to awaken a sleeping jackass.

 

also, you may ask the Japanese High Command.

breezer1's picture

i believe most are hoping for the best but expecting the worst. trying to keep it light relieves the stress. everyone on the east coast could become victims in a worst case scenario. pretending only works for politicians.

fajensen's picture

I don't understand why some commentors would want to see a greater tragedy here.

What I like to see is the end of the US empire; The US has transformed from the finest country in the world into somthing like the USSR of the 1980's: A lumbering beast intruding on everyone and inflicting violence wherever it pleases, just because it can.

It took Chernobyl to crack the armour of the Sovjets; Maybe a shower of oil will do the trick on the USASR?

chumbawamba's picture

This is the end of America, folks.  Stop sleep-walking through your life.  This can be ended if People just realized they do have the power to stop this if they would simply refuse to go a long anymore.

WITHDRAW YOUR CONSENT.

The only way anything is going to change is if you make it happen.  Stop waiting for the government to do something.  Stop putting your hopes in Candidate B vs. Candidate A as neither have the answer.  Stop promoting Party B vs. Party A as the "alternative", because they're all the same, and equally stupid.

This is not about governments or politicians or parties, but rather about the individual.  it is the individual, doing what is in their own best interest that will fix this and all other problems.

Put yourself first, then your family, then your community.  But to make it work, you must

WITHDRAW YOUR CONSENT.

I am Chumbawamba.

Village Idiot's picture

I was just going to add my two cents regarding people's desire to see the worst - this looks like a perfect spot, right after Chumba.  Of the many "types" that post on this site, there is definitely one makeup that wants total destruction (plug in your own word) - whether for perceived financial gain, leveling the playing field, bringing America to it's knees, etc.

EDIT:  That last post from Chumba was relatively constructive.

FrankIvy's picture

You know, I used to be where you're at now.  Then it occurred to me: "what's worth saving?"

The people?  Humans pretty much are filthy animals that are worse than their wild cousins when it comes to cutting throats and backstabbing to get what they want.  Why save that?

Is it the hope that, someday, people will be wise enough not to kill their brothers and shit where they eat?

 

I'm not sure how much evolution would have to happen before a critical mass of humanity was able to internalize the concept of putting future and community ahead of immediacy and self, but it's a lot more than a few hundred generations.

 

So, in sum, why would it make sense for me to do anything to "change" the flow of the sea of sewage in which I swim?  They "changed" it when they created America, right?  One of the FFs said, "we have a chance to restart the world."

Petty avarice, myopia, and human biology took that founding to the US we know today in relatively short order.  It was a done deal within a few decades of the founding, in fact.

The greatest book ever written is Animal Farm, because it's a perfect reflection of how any humans will behave in any revolutionary situation.  Greed, self-interest, inside systems, and so on, doom any chance of having a sustainable, free, fair society.

So, I watch.  I'm curious.  But I have no interest to "change" the garbage we have now.  That'll just entail a decade or two of chaos followed by a hopelessly brief period of parades and celebration, followed by the pigs returning us whence we came.