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BP's Relief Well Is Not a Slam Dunk
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The team leader for BP's relief wells - Boots and Coots - is 40 for
40 in successfully stopping oil spills using relief wells (around
6:10 into video).
Many oil drilling experts are hopeful that BP's relief wells will
succeed on the first try. I hope and pray that they do.
But the relief wells are not a slam dunk, especially at such extreme
depths.
CBS News states:
"It's not a solid dunk," said Eric Smith, a deepwater drilling expert. "It's going to take some work."
Smith said two things could go wrong. The cut could miss the broken
wellbore, and BP would just try again, or engineers could drill into
hidden gas pockets."When you are drilling into that you have to be careful of a kick, a blowout in the relief well," Smith said.
George
Hirasaki, a Rice University professor in chemical and biomolecular
engineering who was involved in the Bay Marchand oil containment effort
for Shell, said engineers have to be very careful when drilling into
any formation that has hydrocarbons, which poses the risk of the same
type of explosion that destroyed the rig.
Recently-retired Shell Oil President John Hofmeister said
that the well casing below the sea floor may have been compromised,
which could render success from the relief wells less certain:
[Question]
What are the chances that the well casing below the sea floor has been
compromised, and that gas and oil are coming up the outside of the well
casing, eroding the surrounding soft rock. Could this lead to a catastrophic geological failure, unstoppable even by the relief wells?
John Hofmeister: This is what some people fear has occurred. It is also why the "top kill" process was halted.
If the casing is compromised the well is that much more difficult to
shut down, including the risk that the relief wells may not be enough. If
the relief wells do not result in stopping the flow, the next and
drastic step is to implode the well on top of itself, which carries
other risks as well.
Hofmeister subsequently told MSNBC:
The question is whether
there is enough mechanical structure left at the base of the reservoir
to hold the cement when they start pouring cement in [from the relief well].***
The more oil we some coming out, the more it tells you that the whole casing system is deteriorating. The fact that more oil would be coming out rather than less oil, would suggest that the construction within the pipe is offering no resistance whatsoever, and we’re just getting a gusher.
Yesterday, the Guardian quoted the government official in charge of oil spill response as warning:
“There is a chance – a slight chance – they could nick the wellbore,” Thad Allen, the coast guard commander, said. …
A
nick risks starting a new small leak or possibly even a collapse of a
section of the pipe given that it was damaged in the explosion in ways
still not fully understood.
***
The intercept could
be complicated if it turns out that the oil is flowing around the pipe,
between the pipe and the cement of the well bore.
And Spiegel previously reported that there are many dangers with completing the relief wells:
Independent experts warn that relief wells, like any well, are not without risk. "More
oil could leak than before, because the field is being drilled into
again," says Fred Aminzadeh, a geophysicist at the University of
Southern California. Ira Leifer, a geochemist at the University of
California in Santa Barbara, voices similar concerns: "In the worst
case, we would suddenly be dealing with two spills, and we'd have twice
the problem."
***
As straightforward as it
sounds, this approach [i.e. killing a spill by drilling relief wells]
has not always been easy to implement in the past. The disaster in the
Timor Sea, for example, ended in a debacle. It took engineer five tries
to even find the borehole under the sea floor. Shortly before the end,
the West Atlas oilrig went up in flames, after all.
***
[David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists] is particularly concerned that BP,
in drilling the relief wells, will penetrate into precisely those rock
formations in which extreme pressure and temperature conditions
facilitated the April blowout in the first place. Gas bubbles and
gushing oil from the depths are real possibilities. "Any relief or kill
well needs to be drilled with more caution than the first well," Donal
Van Nieuwenhuise, a geologist at the University of Houston, told the
New Orleans daily Times-Picayune. "You don't want a repeat performance.
An oil industry geologist adds:
[There are] lots of potential complications [in
drilling relief wells]. A big one would be using too high a mud
weight/pump pressure and fracturing thwe rock around the [relief well]
and losing it. Also instead of the mud building a tall colume inside
the well bore and stoping the flow it might escape out of ruptured
[casing] or failed [cement] shoes. Then they might not ever be able to
build enough back pressure to stop the flow. I suspect many of these
possible problems won't reveal themselves until the actual kill process
begins.
As CBS notes, even BP is no longer expressing full confidence:
BP leaders have showed supreme confidence in their relief wells.
"I fully expect that the well itself will be shut off in August," said Bob Dudley, BP's point man on the spill.
But recently? More caution.
"The drilling of relief wells, there's nothing guaranteed," Dudley said.
Indeed, the veteran engineer in charge of the Ixtoc Gulf oil well disaster in the 1970's states that - given the pressures involved - a single relief well might not be enough:
Carlos Osornio, a Mexican engineer in charge of
Pemex's deepwater drilling operations during the Ixtoc crisis, said BP
may ultimately find that both relief wells are needed to contain the
gusher.
"One relief well may not be enough to contain the high volume (of oil flow), but two will work for sure," he said.
Similarly, former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich previously noted:
A petroleum engineer who’s worked in the oil industry tells me [that] a recent blow-out off the coast of Australia required five pressure relief wells to successfully shut it down.
For the above reasons - and given BP's track record of incompetence - I am hopeful, but not 100% confident that BP's relief wells will succeed.
- advertisements -
14% LEL of Methane
Still waiting on a credible source re Venice, LA. @ 14% LEL Methane.
Also source for GOM waters at 7 F above average.
I posted it on the previous GW post on ZH on Monday.
The 7 degree above normal number comes from transducer data near the spill.
I believe her and the tropical activity is at least in the moment supporting her assertion.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vpJVELKPPM
38 sec into clip in regard to 7 deg. F higher
Kindra Arnesan
The 14% LEL of methane was deduced from local platform workers which have area monitors. They stated that it was higher but did not go above 25% LEL of methane.
You can also deduce the LEL % for Benzene and Hydrogen Sulfide from the EPA numbers of area monitoring for Venice.
What do you want me to provide multiple sources of the same data that has been peer reviewed in a MEDIA BLACK OUT?
Eyes to see and ears to hear......
Kendra relating anecdotes about observed sonar transducer temperature readings by unidentified fishermen is not "data". NOAA surface temp readings do not substantiate her claims. The article you cite about methane does not mention any data regarding ambient methane levels at Venice, LA. Still waiting for you to post a credible source. Rumor and inuendo don't cut it.
No. Just one credible source for the claim of 14% methane in the air. I believe I have read that a normal methane component of air is in the range of 1,800 ppm. Your claim of 14% would be a component of 140,000 ppm. That indicates it is more than 80X normal level. And it is coming from a leak some 40 miles away, you say. That is absolute Bovine Suppository.
And BP is hiding the evidence in cooperation with EPA?
Please focus Augustus....here it goes again one more time:
It is 14% LEL of Methane in ambient air near Venice not 14% methane in air.....get it!
I undeerstand that the fear haas created a foggy brain. Focus is not a word you should be using as you cannot do it. You wrote above:
They have measured methane in the ambient area as close as venice above 14% LEL, which is off the chart and simply not accceptable to a living environment.
And I wrote that it was BS. Focus on your claim of greater than 14% methane and supply verification. I'll let the bogus stuff of 25% methane go as it simply could not happen unless someone was standing directly above a leak.
And yet right out there in the middle of the ambient atmosphere there's a big ass gas flare burning off 55+ million cubic feet of gas per day. Within the general GOM offshore shelf there must be hundreds of other wells that are flaring off, doing hot work, etc. If the "ambient atmosphere" of the gulf is at methane levels of 14% LEL, then why the hell hasn't it already blown up? Hint: It's not due to a lack of an ignition source!
I do not see 14% LEL mentioned in the article you cite, presumably for good reason.
Methane will not ignite (with an source provided) at 14% LEL, not until 100% of LEL will methane in air will it ignite if an ignition source is found. This LEL (lower Explosive limit) is the same for all compounds but the device that measures the LEL (usually a MSA passport/orion or others that determines the LEL based on the open air continuous sample, it would be up to the tester to know what the known contaminates were unless they were using a Mini Ray device or Drager/gastec tubes).
You know that BP manipulated the data because you have seen . . . .? that told you that the pressures were different? Or that the casing in the hole was different? Or that the gamma ray signatures don't match a GoM well? The logs show the breaks and changes in the formations, and the mud weights used in drilling are noted. What more do you want?
The measured pressures in a particular formation do not change, do you believe otherwise?
You have been running around announcing that you speak Bravo Sierra.
BTW, BP did provide the mud rate flow logs to the congressional committee. Not of the entire operation but the last couple of days, I believe.
You have made all of the wild accusations. Where is your evidence? Not Matt Simmons giving a BS interview.
Fellow ZHrs, remember the various Harry masterbaters on gold treads? Well, the oil guys have their harry/jonnie bravo/nadler here too. Dont feed the animals please.
I call "Bravo Sierra" on your claim to have been working for an integrated oil company for over 20 years with field experience. I base that call on your total lack of understanding of the technical issues and constant posting of utter fantasia.
Unless of course you are describing your experience driving a truck.
This is a Nalco MSDS (material Safety Data Sheet) and not a FEMA or BP generated document. This is what they all look like with minor differences based on material and company creating the data sheet.
As for the attack on my current work status with integrated oil (21 years as of this November), and my work experience in the field of the same amount of time is expected the response of an academic in which you speak in many absolutes as far as the damages sustained, leak rates, ability to repair such catastrophes when those of us who are human understand that this is a human event which academic hubris has made calls the cumulative BP asses cannot cover and the current event is nothing more than window dressing to buy time.
By the way I have driven a truck, a well, picked up trash on houskeeping rounds, set on numerous safety teams and root cause analysis investigations, member of the industrial fire crew, operated TDC and Panel board process technology in the field and control rooms in new start ups, hot shut downs and much more and always its about the human side of things.
I do not know it all, but I have been in this industry for many years and I know a cover up when I see one. Stevie Wonder could see this one.
With cost cutting gone wild being pushed by those who will never pay the ultimate price for their flawed cost mindset thinking.
Are you aware operational logs are a legal requirement whether they are electronic or hand written and they have not been turned over, I stand by my earlier message that the log given is not complete nor is it an operational log.
So suit yourself if you choose to attack me on my employment status as I only comment on things that are relevant to my knowledge base and experience.
My suggestion is that anyone in a 200 mile area from the coastline of the gulf coast to take responsibility for themselves and their families by searching for information and seeking the truth. If you then feel lead to take any action then do so by an educated standpoint.
Hey if you guys Augustus and gasmiinder want to give me a hard time that's fine, as that means your giving others a break.
Dominant thinking is that it is a massive methane problem.
Easy search for you to find and read.
Quite a problem.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
In this context L's and G'men, I think it is particularly important to remember a crucial anniversary creeping upon us, 16th August, 1945, first atomic explosion.
trinity. Unleashed. I am become death etc...
Now, Nuke is going to be our friend, 65 years later, almost to the day.
The nuke option will be proposed or executed between the bracket dates of 6th and 9th August.
The nuclear meme, released in New Mexico on 16h July 1945, is about to come full circle.
I think we should all commemorate it.
See, Iran is a Nuclear Issue
Islamic bomb (Damocles Sword) is a Nuclear issue
Now this oil out of GOM is supposed to be radioactive
And it will be sealed by a nuke.
Quite the circle, from foe to friend.
A real turning point, a tipping point if you really think about it.
So, yes, those dates... 16th July.. etc.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Alot of Media Are Asking Whether We Should Nuke the Leaking Oil Well. Here's Why We SHOULDN'T ...
Gee Dub,
I hear you. Loud and clear. But in my reading,there is an inevitability to what is unfolding here. Remember the anti-war protests? World-wide? Happened anyways, right?
Same with this. There will be anti-nuke protests, but what do we know, huh?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
The relief well is not a slam dunk, but not for the reasons stated above. It is extremely unlikely that there are downhole integrity problems. The well is producing from behind the 7" production casing. Other than that string, the well has casing to a depth of 17,168 ft. There is only 1200 feet of open hole. The 9-5/8" casing liner is the weakest link. It has a yield strength for burst of 22,000 psi, which is 9,000 psi greater than the shut in formation pressure. Notice how the people saying that there are integrity problems with the well are all geologists. I've never known a geologist that ever knew a bit from a water barrel.
And what is a catastrophic geologic failure? A formation fracture causing lost circulation? Again, nothing unusual.
There is nothing mysterious about this well. The pressures are well within the norm for the GOM. The fact that the relief well had a show of methane means nothing. I would be suprised if it didn't.
Notice how the people saying that there are integrity problems with the well are all geologists. I've never known a geologist that ever knew a bit from a water barrel.
Those words are the only ones I DON"T agree with. I've seen lot's of comments regarding wellbore integrity not from geologists. And I've known lot's of geologists who do understand drilling operations pretty well.
Basically the media/blogosphere continue to go find people who are not familiar with what's going on but can be presented as experts (they LOVE professors for this) then ask them enough questions to get a scary sounding quote and run with it. Great points otherwise in your comments.
Again - sometimes a slam dunk bounces off the rim, but the vast majority of the time they are successful and that scenario is a perfect metaphor for the relief wells. Can they possibly fail? Yep. What are the odds? Very high that they will succeed.
[David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists] is particularly concerned that" BP, in drilling the relief wells, will penetrate into precisely those rock formations in which extreme pressure and temperature conditions facilitated the April blowout in the first place. Gas bubbles and gushing oil from the depths are real possibilities. "Any relief or kill well needs to be drilled with more caution than the first well," Donal Van Nieuwenhuise, a geologist at the University of Houston, told the New Orleans daily Times-Picayune. "You don't want a repeat performance."
"Extreme Pressure" essentially means, pressures greater than the available equipment being used to contain these documented pressure kicks (as to prevent casing design pressures from exceeding burst pressure).
Whatever, the Sovereigns are buying the story...
BP is up $2 today.
Not surprising. They do whatever they want, make their own rules, and get away with it. Investors like strength.
Thank you Tree of Liberty and Tempo. Great entertainment. You did not dissapoint. Did you know that corexit is EATING BOATS?
Are you aware of what is in Corexit 9500A? Much of the components by weight are very strong solvents, which mean they can attack unsuitable material and yes even hulls. Are you suggesting that these dispersant's cannot damage boat hulls of above said construction?
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/Corexit_EC9500A_MSDS...
inside it states
UNSUITABLE CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL :
Mild steel, Carbon steel, Buna-N, Brass, Copper, Natural rubber, Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Ethylene propylene,
EPDM, Neoprene, Nitrile, Polyurethane, Viton, Alfax, Hypalon
SUITABLE CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL :
Stainless Steel 304, Stainless Steel 316L, Aluminum, Hastelloy C-276, MDPE (medium density polyethylene), HDPE
(high density polyethylene), PVC, Plexiglass, Teflon, Kalrez, Perfluoroelastomer, PTFE, TFE, FEP (encapsulated)
Thank you Tree of Liberty and Tempo. Great entertainment. You did not dissapoint. Did you know that corexit is EATING BOATS?
Jim,
"Entertainment"
I care deeply for my fellow man and especially in the Gulf South and coastal areas. Apparently you think that this is some type of game that will soon be behind us. Take a moment and listen to this brave woman explain what we are dealing with. If you still think this is a game or entertainment then I must deduce you are part of the problem and not the solution. This is not nearly over and those in the area need to plan to leave as the respiratory distress issues are increasing each day this well and fissures continue to gush.
Kindra Arnesen Turns Whistleblower and Exposes The BP And Government Coveruphttp://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/07/05/kindra-arnesen-turns-whistle...
The Blow out Preventer is definitely leaning!
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/06/28/increase-leaning-bop-15-degr...
No. the BOP is not leaning any more than it was on day two. The LMRP is attached to the top of the BOP with a flexible connector to allow for movement of the drillship and the riser. The LMRP is supposed to move and it is operating just as it was designed to do.
I junked you for being a corporate shill. All you write indicates that you know what you are talking about and you always defend and put in the best light the corporate assholes.
It's almost impossible to decipher the truth somewhere in between the propaganda being released by both the government/BP tandem and the conspiracy theorists that believe the end of the world is nigh.
"yep and the sun will rise in the east tomorrow." Yeah, until it doesn't - A Chinese chronicle tells of the time of the long darkness when the sun didn't rise and other sources say it stood still in the sky as seen from Jericho. The Mayans with perhaps the oldest records on the planet speak of a time when it rose in the west. Kind'a weird that we still speak of a rising and setting sun, so Dark Agey...
And Dec 21, 2012 is JUST around the corner!
Turning the entire GoM into a burning pyre could be fun.
Relief well #2 encountered toxic methane gas in their well bore miles from the Mecarado well and issued gas masks to workers. This means high pressure erosion channels are out of control in the formation miles from the little TV show that BP is broadcasting. There is a probability that the whole damn reservior will blow. Then the GoM water around the well becomes saturated with methane and all the boats/ships in the area will sink. Why do you think they are keeping the large foreign ships away the area? Why do think there aren't 100,000+ people working to clean up the mess? Why doesn't the EPA release daily air quality readings in and around the GoM? The Govt knows there is a probability that the whole GoM will become a death zone. Remember, Matt Simmons reported a very large methane/oil leak miles from the blowout well a month ago. BP drilled into reservoir that may extend to 30000 feet and when released under enormous pressure will lead to a collaspe of the overburdened rock and ocean. A nuke underwater explosion may be the only way out and is probably being planned if more leaks develop. I am completely in cash until the danger passes
Your post is simply video game nonsense. The relief well #2 is about 2500 ft from the Macondo well, not miles away as you claim. Matt Simmons is full of BS. The logs of the well are available and show a 65' or so reservoir, not one that goes down an additional two miles. They keep large ships away from the area because shipping traffic through the area could be unsafe from a navigation standpoint. there is already a fleet of ships out there with the three wells and all of the support vessels.
Its a big, large body of water. It can accomdate a few ships.
Look at the red sea, 3 navy battle groups and other ships as well and they arent complaining.
"Relief well #2 encountered toxic methane gas in their well bore miles from the Mecarado well and issued gas masks to workers."
Link, please.
The leak is not the only danger you need to protect your assets from.
The relief wells are a slam dunk - meaning that like all slam dunks they have a very high probability of success but NOT 100%. 95% but not certain. It does often require multiple attempts. This is still going to be the solution. Just takes time.
The rest is pablum. "like all wells, is not without risk" "drilling into the same rocks" yep and the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
"95% but not certain."
Even with a casing that has lost containment? I believe the following and my experience tells me that these are the dogs that will hunt and not the company line spewed by British Petroleum.
http://www.floridaoilspilllaw.com/senator-confirms-reports-that-wellbore-is-pierced-oil-seeping-from-seabed-in-multiple-places
http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2010/07/02/bp-ordered-release-informato...
Swallowing all BP data and Government swearing to it does not ooze integrity and truth as they have been lying about; Oil Leak rates, actual damage to the well system (casing damage, gulf floor fissures.......
Its is odd that Gasmiinder and Augustus are the first to post in refute of anything other than the BP facts as they see it ........Truth will come out as it already is in regard to the scope of this disaster.
The methane levels in the ambient atmosphere in the gulf that has previously been reported indicate this is anything but a normal situation in which relief wells are a certain in outcome. "95% but not certain", I call Bravo Sierra on that one. Ther is no slam dunk at this stage. Again, this is dire and the gulf inhabitants should be planning to leave as these string of broken promises by BP and lackey the Feds just by time until they find something else.
"To thine on self be true"
The Guardian article is simply incorrect.
From the transcript of the Kent Wells briefing of June 28, 3rd full paragraph on page 4:
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/in...
"Then there is another term that if you're watching any of the animations that
we put out there they use a term called BHA which stands for bottom hole
assembly and basically that’s just the drilling assembly that we use to actually
drill and take our measurements, et cetera."
The original ranging runs did have to have the drill pipe out of the hole as they were locating the casing from a greater distance and the drill pipe interferes with the measurements. however, now that they are near the well they can run the ranging tool down through the drill pipe to get a reading.
Relief well and ranging video from June 27, :
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/reliefwellgraphics062710.htm
You can see a bit of the ranging tool at 5:06 in this video from the 27th:
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kwellsreliefwells062710.htm
As of July 4, RW #1 is at 17,725 (measured depth?), with 6 ranging runs completed.
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7063432
With all of the nonsense complaints about BP not providing information, it would really, really, really be helpful if those writing about the event would pay attention to what is fully detailed.
Yes Wright is 40/40. Watching closely and expecting good news on the RW sooner rather than later.
There has been so much obfuscation occuring out of BP and the .gov that if success is had with the relief well many will not beleive it.
DeweyLeon
Yep, once you catch on to the idea that everything is propaganda you belive nothing you can not verify personally.
Sad, but true.
GW,
The meme being pushed by BP is that the guy in charge of the relief well drilling has a perfect batting average, something like 42 for 42. And considering that BP is in charge, with the uninformed consent of the government, we have no choice but to take a wait and see attitude with respect to the relief wells.
I'm more concerned with the capture/containment going on now, which is where everyone is putting their chips until the relief wells hit their marks and the process of shutting down the well begins. From what I've read, BP might be hoping to apply some pressure from the top down, or at least prevent the rising mud that's injected into the bottom of the well from escaping too quickly, by using their modified containment process. We shall see.
edit: This is a BP video talking about relief well operations, including at 6:10 minutes John Wright of Boots & Coots talking about 40 for 40 successful relief wells drilled.
http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kwellsreliefwells062710.htm
And they're named Boots and Coots. It does not sound at all like a bad TV movie to me. ;)
(just noticed: Mr. Wright, ahem, from Boots and Coots...you can't make shit like this up)
Mr. Wright can't be wrong, right?
As silly as this sounds (and for those among us who believe we have total control of ourselves, this definitely sounds silly) this kind of word play is the type practiced with subliminal messaging to great success. The key with any messaging, either overt or covert, is repetition.
Tell a lie enough times to enough people and it becomes the truth.
It will be over with by the end of August.. Nothing to see here- move on.
It will be over by the end .........
And house prices can only go up. Seriously, its already ended the lives of many careers, businesses and dreams. Its already killed thousands of animals in the gulf and will keep killing a long time , the oxygen as well
End of August is still the beginning.