Breaking Down Europe's 2010 Bond Issuance
With the ever increasing, and rightfully so, interest on European gross and net bond issuance, we present BofA's latest calendar breakdown of weekly and monthly Bond and Bill redemptions, coupon payments and gross issuance for the key European countries. Using this data, one can determine the net financing needs by country by month, to determine when a supply squeeze is likely to occur. As can be seen, there is a cash crunch for the Eurozone in the Feb-April period as €324 billion in near-term Bills have to be rolled over, while for Bonds the redemption peak hits in Q3, when €176 billion in Bonds have to be redeemed, while coupon payments peak at the same time. Focusing on rollover risk indicates that while Spain, whose 21% of debt rollover concern had been discussed previously, is at risk, Italy is just as much in jeopardy, with 20% of debt requiring to roll in 2010. Another potential flashpoint is the country of Austria, which is only second to Portugal (77.1%) in the amount of debt held by foreigners, at 76.3%.
Below are summary supply forecasts by country for the balance of 2010.
And this is full monthly Bond/Bill redemption and coupon payment schedule. The green highlighted cells indicate if net bond issuance to date has covered borrowing needs for the month, assuming issued amount is purely for bond redemption and coupon payments. Of all countries, Ireland may be most in the clear from a funding perspective.
And here is the full detail of weekly auctions.