This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Breaking News: Hekla Erupts (Or Does It: Iceland Met Office Does Not Confirm)
Breaking news: The Hekla volcano has erupted. Count Europe's 2010 GDP a scratch. We expect Katla to complete the trifecta any minute. Iceland's (c)ash revenge will be complete.
REYKJAVIK (BNO NEWS) -- The Hekla volcano in southern Iceland erupted on Monday afternoon.
Live images from the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service showed a huge plume of smoke rising from the volcano.
For those wishing to view the smoke plume in real time, here is a live 24/7 webcam.
Update from BNO:
To reiterate: Media footage of plume only *indicate* Hekla may have erupted. Icelandic authorities have *not* confirmed that.
Update 2: It appears the Iceland webcam was pointing at a different volcano according to http://www.aftenposten.no. We will keep you apprised of this situation, although based on seismic readings as we reported earlier, Katla is more at risk for any imminent action
- 29085 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


As posted before, here's the live webcam for Hekla: http://www.ruv.is/hekla/
I don't think so. The google translation reads to me like a team has pointed the Hekla cam at the active volcano, Eyjafjallajokull.
The translation reads: "RUV got permission to come for another camera aimed at the volcano Hekla, which is 12 km. south-east of Búrfell"
As seen from Burfell, both volcanoes line up, but Hekla is 12km away and Eyjafjallajokull 40 km. The cloud you see in the video is too clear to be that far away --I think--.
The plume from Eyjafjallajokull is big enough to be seen from a great distance.
I am guessing this camera is pointed southeast, so even if it is aimed at Hekla, the plume you're seeing is still the one from Eyjafjallajokull.
EDIT: I just checked the Hekla webcam again. It's showing what seems to be a different mountain now, and I'm not seeing any plume. Perhaps it was pointed at Eyjafjallajokull by accident earlier?
EDIT: In case you can't get the link to work, here's the image I'm seeing: http://yfrog.com/ajheklap
Looks pretty peaceful.
I think Hekla is fine (for now).
The volcano may be at peace but what's with the above ground missile silo in the foreground? Is Iceland preparing to take out GS and company and use the volcano as cover? :>)
Does this mean that the EU will not sue Goldman and Greece won't need the additional funds?
Good news, no?
Clearly you people don't know how to translate this.
Here it goes and I quote,"The resulting eruption of the Hekla volcano means there will be an immeasurable amount of American pent up consumer demand, now is the time to buy any and all stocks."
Icelanding government should jump on the tourismo bandwagon and start selling little jars with the ash-stuff to Americans as pets.
can't get a socket
The bane of many a lonely man...
I am Chumbawamba.
{choke} LOL {choke}
Chumbawamba
You were nearly responsible for my early demise when I swallowed a bite of my sandwich just as I read your comment.
Note to self: Do not eat while reading ZH in general and Chumba in particular. Doing so may be hazardous to your health. :>)
No doubt CD. I wasn't eating anything but nearly drowned myself. Listening to Max Kiser on Alex Jones and he suggested we sacrifice the bankers (Lloyd, Dimon etc.) to the volcanoes in Iceland. So, I read Chumbas post and heard Max say that at the same time. I thought my brain would split in two.
That's live footage of somewhere in New Jersey.
Many people are suffering from AVEAS at moment.
Acute Volcanic Eruption Awareness Syndrome for all you abbreviation-savvy investors out there. If another big eruption happens in the country to help Unpronouncable along then things could get very interesting.
Oh Heck-la!... but it's about time we finally get a volcano who's name we can pronounce!
Could be a good airline shorting opportunity here... from Wiki...
"The earliest recorded eruption of Hekla took place in 1104, since then there have been between twenty and thirty considerable eruptions, with the mountain sometimes remaining active for periods of six years with little pause."
Lord Blankfein... please follow me this way to the escape pod.
whoa. Think of all that jet fuel that won't be burned.
I recommend closing European airspace....for quite some time.
Also, stock up on food.RIGHT NOW!
I recommend closing European airspace....for quite some time.
Also, stock up on food.RIGHT NOW!
2 for 1 Gordon Brown. You're welcome.
Oh well, there's always 2011.
I am Chumbawamba.
Not according to that ZH post from the other day...
And cougarlife.com.
No kidding. I have a hard (difficult) time getting past the home page these days.
The Gods are unhappy with the bankers and the latest Greek bailout package.
which one is Hekla?
The big one... on the right. ;)
It must be bad. I went to that video link and it is completely black.
You can try entering this into Windows Media Player
mms://213.167.158.211/hekla/
I wonder if anyone is monioring activity of the Yellowstone great lava dome....
You'll have months of notice before that one blows.
Yes. there's a team continuously monitoring the ground deformation. There are two "resurgent domes" rising several centimeters per year.
You can monitor the quake swarms here ... there were two big swarms (with hundreds of tiny tremors each) in early 2009 and 2010:
http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html
Not really anything to worry about unless they start getting some big ones -- like magnitude 3.5-4.
Also, see my post near the top re: Hekla. It doesn't seem to be erupting. I think it was showing a webcam image from the other volcano.
There's more than one?
Iceland is pretty much made of volcanic rock.
Two domes, yes, but part of the same system. They're both being pushed up by the same massive Yellowstone magma chamber under Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana.
I highly recommend watching the 5-part History Channel documentary, which explains that and much more:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOn3wkehluk
Translation from video link above:
Búrfell is about 700 meters high mountain just above the Búrfell the roll. Top of the mountain has fjarskiptafyrirtækið distance facilities, RUV got permission to come for another camera aimed at the volcano Hekla, which is 12 km. south-east of Búrfell. Hekla is approximately 1500 m. high and usually ridiculed by decades apart. She is Jack from Hekla in the near future as the big sister, Katla and Hekla erupted last 26th February 2000.
Safety Committee RUV was for setting up the camera on Búrfell in collaboration with Civil, LV, distance and content of Reykjavik in charge of the Internet system.
She is Jack alright. As for being ridiculed by decades apart, I've traded on markets like that.
Ok I see some smoke and shit , it ain't no Mount St Helens........ yet
Where is this news coming from? Reuters does not have it, nor can I find it anywhere.
As far as I can tell, it's bogus. Just a rumor. Check the webcam again: the mountain you see in the image is not erupting.
There's no volcano?
No, there are lots. But it's still the case that only 1 is erupting as far as we can tell.
Hammer of the Gods
...will drive our shit to new lands
Valhalla I am coming.
On we sweep with threshing oar.
Our only goal must be the Western Shore.
as I read these comments with bursts of seemingly random laughter, I pause and worry I'm going insane? ZH is driving me mad lmaorofl!!!
"as I read these comments with bursts of seemingly random laughter, I pause and worry I'm going insane?"
With "scatterbrains" as your ID, I fear you may have come to ZH already afflicted with your bout of insanity. :>)
TD you are one fast man.
Nothing on WSJ, NYT, or Reuters.
MSN now has the story and Google finds twitter reports
Does this mark a market top?
Quite ludicrous yet true ... ZH and namely TD are faster to gather and post info than armies of journalists.
Great job ! Thanks.
fuck
Once again Zero Hedge beats everyone to the punch.
By skipping due diligence and posting a rumor. No volcano trifecta in play (yet).
Maybe, or in these debt oriented times is ZH just borrowing trouble?
Has this been validated with a second source?
Can this be the "Bl-ash Swan?"
<Sarcasm on>
I am sick and tired of this website not discussing matters of financial importance.
<Sarcasm off>
Zerohedge for President....or, for a good time, or whatever.
This is some serious shit.
Zerohedge!
Here in Belgium, the first Army jet fighter made a emergency landing because of the ash. It was just on the radio, followed by a announcement that on wednesday they will try to resume flights and again followed by a weather man that it is insane to launch planes and that the risk is actually pretty high.
AND! first food shortage in FISH from Nigeria! We'll soon have to cut back and eat the local crap that swims here! MY GOD!! WE'LL ALL SOON LIVE LIKE COMMON PEOPLE!!!!!
You´ll know its serious when they quit importing hookers to Amerstam........
Norwegian news now has it too... http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=no&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fw...
Had to mess around to get a translation -->
Aftenposten.no come back with more
The volcano Hekla, Iceland has begun an eruption at 18.30 o'clock Norwegian time Monday, according to Icelandic ruv.is. Hekla is Iceland's most active volcano
Hekla is approximately 1500 meters above sea level and had last erupted in February 2000. The volcano is one of Iceland's largest and is located 150 kilometers from Reykjavik.
The lava from Hekla covers approximately 420 square kilometers. Hekla has had major eruptions in 1294, 1300, 1693, 1766, 1845-46, 1947-48 and 1970. At the last was 18 km2 covered by up to 20 meters thick lava. Outbreaks in 1980, 1991 and 2000, according's Norwegian Encyclopedia.
-30-
Destruction is beautiful.
Destroy Everything You Touch... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtqGoHouoE0
'Destruction is Beautiful." Yes.
Media is too busy tying in mild mannered 'T Partee' protests with Tim McVeigh OKC bombing. OFF to ze KAMP with you insolent peasants!
This URL is from an unpronounceable Icelandic site and gives current updates (in English) on volcanic activity. I think we jumped the shark on Hekla
http://reykjavik.mydestinationinfo.com/en/hekla-volcano-webcam
When Katla goes not being able to fly for months will be the worst of Europe's concerns.
Perhaps you mean "least" not "worst".
quite an apt name
should be a bit of a hekla to Mr Market
Are you tyler it has actually erupted though and not just a bit of smoke?
Don't fuck with the elves of Iceland!
And, folks, how about that volcano over there in Iceland? Doing a Hekla a job, that's for sure. Get it?
I'm here all week. Try the veal.
HEARING THIS STORY IS FALSE, WEBCAM SIMPLY POINTED AT WRONG PEAK.
Icelandic dude lit up a doobie just under camera line of sight.
AIR FILTERS , BITCHES !!! :)
HEARING THIS STORY IS FALSE, WEBCAM SIMPLY POINTED AT WRONG PEAK.
Nice scoop. Another feather in ZHs Robin Hood cap.
Mt Pinatubo - Per Wiki:
The volcano's ultra-Plinian eruption in June 1991 produced the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta) and the largest eruption in living memory.....The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10 billion metric tonnes (10 cubic kilometres) of magma, and 20 million tons of SO2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere—more than any eruption since that of Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially.
Gonna be a Hekla lot of stranded passengers!
Hope the Nordic President has the money to pay the 6.95 Boingo fee at the airport every few hours to use his non-3g iPad.
Goldman operative reported to use single webcam to create multiple volcano eruptions to divert attention.
Are we sure its Hekla?
Reports suggests other volcano(s).
But hey, let's hope its Hekla and ignore the reports!
Hekla is not erupting, this web cam is pointed at Eyjafjallajökull.
I am sorry to disappoint you but that volcano is not Hekla
HOAX HOAX HOAX
This is getting ridiculous. Anybody got friends in Iceland? Can you ask them to stick their head out the window and check?
Sarah Palin might be able to see it from her house...
LOL
Your comment works on so many levels, including the gutter level. :>)
Can't be good news for any engines, not just jets. Won't help anything that breaths or tries to. Will this fry the electrical grid? The continent is on 220 volts, and might be fairly resilient.
Any of the tech types out there know what the week points are likely to be?
Definitely true story it appears, here is a news link
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/290846
Yoda, is that you?
Bad link - or the story has been pulled.
Just to confuse things, there are two adjacent volcanoes both of which have erupted numerous times. Katla and Hekla. Latest reports I have found indicate neither is erupting but because they are part of a volcanic ridge they have historically erupted together. Still might happen though it does not appear to be true right now.
Here in Belgium they say on the news that it was a fals alarm.
GOD BLESS THEM.ICELAND.WERE WITH YOU . ERUPT AWAY.
BANKSTER GANGSTERS WILL NEVER MESS WITH YOU AGAIN !!!!
We should probably have one of those cameras pointed at Goldies headquarters and look for any smoke.
"Icelandic authorities respond that Hekla volcano webcam was accidently pointed at Eyjafjallajökull volcano, BNO News reports"
According to reports the guy in charge of the webcam apparently ate a couple of chilicheese dogs too quickly and is now doing his impersonation of the 79 AD Mt. Vesuvius erption.
Another news feed reporting same
http://www.businessinsider.com/hekla-volcano-erupting-2010-4
GO HERE... NO ERUPTION
http://reykjavik.mydestinationinfo.com/en/hekla-volcano-webcam
damn false alarm?
http://www.hulu.com/watch/67934/family-guy-volcano-insurance
We'll get there anyway!
Maybe not today...
Maybe not tomorrow...
BUT SOMEDAY!!! BOOOOOOMM!
Soon the rebellion, err, recovery shall be crushed and young Skywalker will be one of us.
Actually, my money is on Dart. You might know him as Dart Varder, but it's Dart for the friends.
He's got the black star and a cool black cape remember ;)
So they point the cameras AWAY when the discussion of said eruption begins? Who put the CIA in charge of the webcams?
http://dusan.fora.si/works/birdy.png
repeat after me:
there is no vulcano, everthing is safe, there is no vulcano, everthing is safe... NOW GET BACK TO WORK DRONE!
"Ugh....[slrp]....BRAINS!!!...[slrp]....uff....BRAINS......[sniff]....duh....NIKES....hfph....'mercan idull!"
Zombie trips over shoelaces, falls into gravel pit.
No volcanoes and now Gravel Pits? WTF?
I'm still betting on Katla
come on katla
Which one am I watching on the webcams? Is that Katla? Everyone is saying it is not Hekla....
And I was hoping that wire transfer from GS to Thor Thorvalsen, who is running Cam #2 on Eyjafjallajokull, was going to clear his account in time for us to short along with the insiders. Guess Thor was smart to reject payment in herring.....
'Let's now examine the more conceptually difficult case of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. The surprise here is that the wind was steady. If the wind was blowing at constant velocity, why did it shake the bridge back and forth? The answer is a little complicated. Based on film footage and after-the-fact wind tunnel experiments, it appears that two different mechanisms were involved.The first mechanism was the one responsible for the initial, relatively weak vibrations, and it involved resonance. As the wind moved over the bridge, it began acting like a kite or an airplane wing. It established swirling patterns of air flow around itself, of the kind that you can see in a moving cloud of smoke. As one of these swirls moved off of the bridge, there was an abrupt change in air pressure, which resulted in an up or down force on the bridge. We see something similar when a flag flaps in the wind, except that the flag's surface is usually vertical. This back-and-forth sequence of forces is exactly the kind of periodic driving force that would excite a resonance. The faster the wind, the more quickly the swirls would get across the bridge, and the higher the frequency of the driving force would be. At just the right velocity, the frequency would be the right one to excite the resonance. The wind-tunnel models, however, show that the pattern of vibration of the bridge excited by this mechanism would have been a different one than the one that finally destroyed the bridge.
The bridge was probably destroyed by a different mechanism, in which its vibrations at its own natural frequency of 0.2 Hz set up an alternating pattern of wind gusts in the air immediately around it, which then increased the amplitude of the bridge's vibrations. This vicious cycle fed upon itself, increasing the amplitude of the vibrations until the bridge finally collapsed
.'-lightandmatter.com
Wiki: ' On October 4, 1986, as Dan Rather was walking along Park Avenue in Manhattan to his apartment, he was attacked and punched from behind by a man who demanded to know, "Kenneth, what is the frequency?", while a second assailant also chased and beat him. As the assailant pummeled and kicked Rather, he kept repeating the question over and over again.The incident and Rather's account led some to doubt the veracity of Rather's story, although the doorman and building supervisor who rescued Rather fully confirmed his version of events. '
'Waves are a way in which energy is transferred from place to place without the transfer of matter. The energy is carried from place to place in the form of a disturbance. Waves, which move through matter, are called mechanical waves. They require an elastic material medium through which to pass. Examples of matter waves are water waves at the beach and sound waves moving through the air. Waves, which do not require a material medium, are called electromagnetic waves. Examples of electromagnetic waves are light and radio waves. The wave-like behavior exhibited under certain conditions by particles like electrons are called matter waves.'
-web.me.com/dtrapp/ePhysics.f/WDwaves.html
'The tides are caused by the gravitational forces on Earth exerted by the moon and sun. These “tidal forces” are not the total gravitational forces exerted by the sun and moon on Earth, but the difference between these gravitational forces over the surface of the planet. It may seem counterintuitive, but the gravitational forces of the moon and sun tug at the oceans primarily on the horizontal tangent and not the vertical plane to the Earth’s surface. This is partly why the high tide lags — also referred to as the lunitidal interval. This tugging produces a tidal “bulge” or area of higher sea level on the ocean’s surface. As Earth rotates eastward on its axis, water moves into this bulge, which produces a flood tide, and eventually a high tide. As Earth continues to rotate, we move into an area of below-normal sea level or nodes, which produce an ebb tide, eventually reaching low tide. The slack tide is when the tide is not coming in or going out. During a full as well as new moon, the sun and moon are aligned, producing strong tidal forces on the Earth. This is also referred to as spring tide, even though it doesn’t have anything to do with the spring season. These are the highest and lowest tides of the month. During the moon’s quarter phases, the gravitational forces of the moon and the sun are perpendicular to each other. Nearly canceling each other’s tidal forces out, the result is smaller high and low tides. This is referred to as neap tide. Earth’s orbit around the sun is really an ellipse, a shape that can be thought of as a “stretched out” circle or an oval. Tides are enhanced when Earth is at perihelion, when the whole planet comes closest to the sun. When we look at the tide tables, you should remember that these are only predicted values utilizing gravitational forces. During El Niño events, actual tides can be up to one foot higher due to thermal expansion of the water column. Storms can also affect sea level. Low atmospheric pressure associated with storms can allow ocean waters to expand, resulting in a temporary increase in sea level. Strong winds can cause additional elevation of sea level due to storm surges.Water is about 800 times denser than air. Waves and tides contain a great deal more potential kinetic energy than the winds for the same area or footprint.'
-John Lindsey
'How much energy do you think it takes to move the oceans? And what do you think it effects when it passes onto land?'
-John Needham (paraphrased)
'Research carried out by William Schulz of the United States Geological Survey in Denver, Colorado, and colleagues, {has concluded} that atmospheric tides are responsible for causing landslides...They discovered that the movements of the rubble were in sync with ‘atmospheric tides’ - daily highs and lows in atmospheric pressure that are excited by changing exposure to the Sun’s rays and by the Moon’s gravitational pull.'
-Nature News
'The two days on either side of the new lunar month represent most of the positive returns on equity markets for the next four weeks.'
- Macquarie Securities
'We find strong empirical support in favor of a geomagnetic–storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices. {There is} evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.'
-Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
'The year ahead appears to us to contain the most powerful planetary alignments in centuries, not just decades.At the recent NCGR conference in Cambridge, Mass., an astrologer said they checked back for sky patterns a thousand years and another piped up that they had looked back Ten Thousand years and neither had seen this one’s match! It would be considered a ‘done deal’ or a high probability that World Markets will Crash again during 2010. We will do everything but guarantee you that stocks will crash worldwide within three months of August first (that is between May 1 and November 1.'
-Arch Crawford
Well the Goldie imbroglio looks interesting, an institutional he-said she-said with ACA, but it would seem to this humble blogger that the folks not on trial are the ones that created the environment where the yield pigs were voraciously sniffing any and all troughs, namely the Federal Reserve and their low interest rate, Nancy Capitalist enablin', 'everything must go' free-market fire sale.
But examining causes and actions and connecting dots to consequences is just too complex. 'Tis much easier to obviate the Casus Foederis for a Casus Belli, allowing our blessed leaders to initiate metaphorical perp walks and enabling the pablum narrative solvent of cleansing and the, of course, obligatory turning of the page ....
One upside is that this does weaken the efficient market theory, that is, solons able to efficiently rig most any market to their benefit. Not that efficient market theory and its sauntering corollary random-walk needed much debunking, a trip to that antiquated warehouse, the library, or its' 21st century equivalent, Senor Google, offer ample empirical evidence that such foolish notions belong in the dustbin , not the acknowledged tome, of history.
What were the odds that the SEC would charge Goldie, not work out an 'agreement' a priori, and goodness me not at least give a courtesy call so Goldie could short themselves? Considerable no doubt.
But no more considerable than the odds of a Gaussian distribution explaining market movements. Of bubbles in your soda diagnosing bubbles in your portfolio. Of dice playing describing the nature of the dice itself much less the gamblers with same.
The progenitors of alternate theories have been largely ignored; the adherents to the ex-theory randomly maintaining that paradigms cannot be abandoned no matter how shaky, unsatisfactory models cannot be discontinued no matter how broken.
The logical progression of thought that adhering to a broken thesis in part precludes one from considering alternative schemas is a self-reinforcing loop of delusion.
But it did not have to be so...
There was a brief moment, of a few months, half a century ago, where an economic Einstein named Benoit Mandelbrot proved that discontinous market movements, allowable under random-walk to the probabilistic tune of a gazillion-squared, can be scientifically explained ... albeit in non-Gaussian terms.
This breakthrough however proved not only market movements but also that it was too difficult for folks to accept that which leaned into the wind of their strongly held self-perceptions.
So the fractal basis of market movements was relegated to an interesting thesis and its' proponents forced into the corner of proving a negative, rather than affirming a negative.
The debate continues today, folks that search for the underlying fractal pattern being asked if they are going to 'hang it up' if the market doesn't do this or that....
Never though will the naysayers put their theories under the empirical microscope to consider the odds, to fathom the impossibility, of random walk theory within the context of market movements of the last century or even the last few decades.
Consider, gentle reader, the premise from a different direction. If the markets are the data-set of humanity, if the markets are in effect expressing the nature of man, then does it not seem reasonable that the natural law, oft-repeated by traders of old, in fact both guides the nature of man and markets?
Is it snips and snails, and puppy dogs tails or for the gentler side, sugar and spice and all things nice?
As likely a random collection as anything else...
No, we, that is you and I, are made up of energy, energy that is described by its wave-particle duality. We vibrate and as such have a frequency, a wavelength, a harmonic, an energy signature...Seriously, you can look it up!
Now undoubtedly there is randomness on a micro scale, you are for example choosing to read this, but on a macro scale there are cycles, interactions if you will, between other waves, harmonics, energy sigs etc...
In fact I might, controversially , advance that you are reading this entry because mayhaps we both vibrate in a similar fashion!
That is where the substance of the Macquarie Securities quote and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta quote at the top of this post find its' origins...
That is why fellas like Arch Crawford have such an amazing record in sleuthing out turning points, almost always nailing the inflection, and usually nailing the direction.
The wave-particle duality inherent within the natural law has a fractal basis. This is expressed for linear systems, as but one example, by the superposition principle, the net response at a given place and time caused by two or more stimuli is the sum of the responses which would have been caused by each stimulus individually. It is further expressed, by Mandelbrot's assertion, that fractals are objects or quantities that display self-similarity on all scales. It is confusingly expressed in truly gobbledygook form with convoluted sentences like, 'The complex spaciotemporal patterns of atmospheric flows that result from the cooperative existence of fluctuations ranging in size from millimetres to thousands of kilometres are found to exhibit long-range spacial and temporal correlations. These correlations are manifested as the self-similar fractal geometry of the global cloud cover pattern and the inverse power-law form for the atmospheric eddy energy spectrum'.
Clearly the last fella is too advanced for our language.
What is not however too terribly advanced is that Mandelbrot discovered that power laws, a relationship between two quantities where the number or frequency of an object or event varies as a power of some attribute of that object, squares the broken circle of random-walk theory. It explains the heretofore unexplainable market movements of recent vintage. He was able to show that discontinuous market movements exhibited scalability, i.e., fractal behavior, when plotted on engineering graph paper - the kind with logarithmic scales in both directions. This was prima facie evidence of a power law behavior within markets. Power law merely describes the nature of a logarithm. The logarithm of a number to a given base {base 10 describes of course what most of us are familiar with)is the power or exponent to which the base must be raised in order to produce the number.
Power laws exist in nature, for example, gravity weakens by the inverse power of two with distance. Power laws describe the distribution of income in the upper reaches of society. Power laws also apply to the price movements of many financial instruments. Power law distributions allow for many more price swings than would the bell curve and this 'new paradigm' fits the data for many price series.
Power laws relate planetary structures to harmonic constructs ... in Kepler's harmonic mode of thought, the temporal primal intervals of the orbital periods must be raised to the second intervallic power, and the spatial primal intervals of the major axes must be raised to the third intervallic power. This means a power ratio of 2 : 3, i.e. the fifth, the most important interval after the octave.
As further advanced by Hartmut Warm, the order and movement of the planets in our solar system corresponds very accurately to simple geometrical figures and musical intervals, although in a different way than assumed in conventional concepts. One of the keys for an explanation is to be found in the analysis of the harmonical arrangement in the semiminor axes of the elliptical orbits, whereas earlier models and calculations were based on the semimajor axes. He concludes that, thus the ancient notion of a “harmony of the spheres” and especially the fundamental ideas of Johannes Kepler have been confirmed for the first time, and this in a manner that can principally be verified by everyone.
These harmonical arrangements are fractals of the Danielcode ratios, advanced by John Needham, who has an empirically exact method to trade the fractals discussed by Mandelbrot and that are the basis of natural law.
For your humble blogger, this preponderance of evidence, especially, in the canucklehead vernacular of Bubblevision, the 'actionable' dimension of John Needham's DanielCode, lends disturbing credence to Archie Crawford's prognostications and the potential Tacoma Bridge run-on effects of the waves coming to a planet near you.
Earthquakes, volcanoes and ? Oh my!
Clearly, the randomwalkers are underestimating the gravity of our situation.
Kenneth, what is the frequency?
Or more soberly,
Kenny? OMG!
Got fractals?
Professor Erwin Corey! So good of you to join us!
Yes, we have no volcanoes
But, we do have gravel pits and Mandelbrot fractals, together enhancing our understanding of episotomical entropy functions.
Relief.
My stylist does a better job than his:)
By the way, just loving the 'junks' on that last post.
Especially since am in the middle of sim trading for a side trading desk which is fractal based and the methodology is killin' it!
Nice to know that there will be plenty of PHDs takin' the other side of my trades :)
In my humble opinion, the money quote of your piece.
"In fact I might, controversially, advance that you are reading this entry because mayhaps we both vibrate in a similar fashion!"
Humanity is self assembling into two groups. Or more accurately, one group is self assembling away from those that remain into our own group that shares a natural frequency higher than those that remain. The human fireworks that result from this division will be the storm before the coming calm.
Once again, AM stimulates those who wish to listen. I have my personal radio tuned to AM.
CD,
That comment resonates with ya eh?
Will admit would have laughed myself in the face just a couple years ago.
Hard-charging, trench warrior, bare-knuckled, entrepreneur... so damn sure was I that I knew how things 'ticked'...
The empirical method, though, is to go with that which you can't disprove, to believe what your eyes see...
Its' amazing that Mandelbrot laid it out for everyone yet folks still adhere to an 'ex-theory' that based on its' fundamentals has been obviated to the tune of, let's see, fingers and toes, a qazillion squared...
"A man can get to love shit if his livelihood depends on it, if his happiness is involved." -Henry Miller ...
"That comment resonates with ya eh?"
Does that surprise you? :>) If you've read any of my articles or comments, clearly I'm not cut from the same bolt of cloth as most. That's not to say I'm "better", just different. You're articles jump off the page since the first one you posted. But for most, those whose senses are tuned to a narrower frequency range, it's not even seen despite it's location in the middle of the page.
"Will admit would have laughed myself in the face just a couple years ago."
Why would we possibly challenge what we know when everything seems to be "working" based upon the parameters set by society? What's happening lately is that the parameters are being deliberately narrowed yet we are still told to don't worry, be happy. More and more, the resulting stress is the trigger for people to begin to not only question their preconceived notions but to question whose preconceived notions they really are.
"Hard-charging, trench warrior, bare-knuckled, entrepreneur... so damn sure was I that I knew how things 'ticked'..."
I resemble that. King of the sewer was I.
"Its' amazing that Mandelbrot laid it out for everyone yet folks still adhere to an 'ex-theory' that based on its' fundamentals has been obviated to the tune of, let's see, fingers and toes, a qazillion squared..."
Just because something isn't recognized as apparent or obvious doesn't make it any less correct. It just makes it lonely. I stumbled across Mandelbrot well over a decade ago and suddenly so many pieces clicked together. But in our "world" perception shapes our reality so "he" who controls the unaware collective mind controls the collective reality.
"A man can get to love shit if his livelihood depends on it, if his happiness is involved." -Henry Miller ...
Leave it to Miller to speak straight to the masses. I like to say something similar. You can't get a person to think "A" if they are paid to think "B". But I like Miller's quote better. More earthy, something I can plant in the garden of the mind as both fertilizer and seed.
No not surprised at all.
Vibrate at ya later!
AM
"The wave-particle duality inherent within the natural law has a fractal basis. This is expressed for linear systems, as but one example, by the superposition principle, the net response at a given place and time caused by two or more stimuli is the sum of the responses which would have been caused by each stimulus individually. It is further expressed, by Mandelbrot's assertion, that fractals are objects or quantities that display self-similarity on all scales."
This has just got to be nonsense. I'm not a physicist, but I have studied the mathematics of QM and I have never come across this. Please explain how wave-pariticle duality has a fractal basis. And what has that got to do with superposition? This kind of reasoning makes it sound like you have only read a lot of popular accounts of these ideas. Perhaps the fact that Father William can balance an eel on the end of his nose also has a fractal basis.
I also looked up the danielcode website and learned there that the Pope is the Antichrist.
on Mon, 04/19/2010 - 12:23
#308291
' "Let's now examine the more conceptually difficult case of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. The surprise here is that the wind was steady. If the wind was blowing at constant velocity, why did it shake the bridge back and forth? The answer is a little complicated. Based on film footage and after-the-fact wind tunnel experiments, it appears that two different mechanisms were involved.
The first mechanism was the one responsible for the initial, relatively weak vibrations, and it involved resonance. As the wind moved over the bridge, it began acting like a kite or an airplane wing. It established swirling patterns of air flow around itself, of the kind that you can see in a moving cloud of smoke. As one of these swirls moved off of the bridge, there was an abrupt change in air pressure, which resulted in an up or down force on the bridge. We see something similar when a flag flaps in the wind, except that the flag's surface is usually vertical. This back-and-forth sequence of forces is exactly the kind of periodic driving force that would excite a resonance. The faster the wind, the more quickly the swirls would get across the bridge, and the higher the frequency of the driving force would be. At just the right velocity, the frequency would be the right one to excite the resonance. The wind-tunnel models, however, show that the pattern of vibration of the bridge excited by this mechanism would have been a different one than the one that finally destroyed the bridge.
The bridge was probably destroyed by a different mechanism, in which its vibrations at its own natural frequency of 0.2 Hz set up an alternating pattern of wind gusts in the air immediately around it, which then increased the amplitude of the bridge's vibrations. This vicious cycle fed upon itself, increasing the amplitude of the vibrations until the bridge finally collapsed.'
-lightandmatter.com
Wiki: ' On October 4, 1986, as Dan Rather was walking along Park Avenue in Manhattan to his apartment, he was attacked and punched from behind by a man who demanded to know, "Kenneth, what is the frequency?", while a second assailant also chased and beat him. As the assailant pummeled and kicked Rather, he kept repeating the question over and over again.The incident and Rather's account led some to doubt the veracity of Rather's story, although the doorman and building supervisor who rescued Rather fully confirmed his version of events. '
'Waves are a way in which energy is transferred from place to place without the transfer of matter. The energy is carried from place to place in the form of a disturbance. Waves, which move through matter, are called mechanical waves. They require an elastic material medium through which to pass. Examples of matter waves are water waves at the beach and sound waves moving through the air. Waves, which do not require a material medium, are called electromagnetic waves. Examples of electromagnetic waves are light and radio waves. The wave-like behavior exhibited under certain conditions by particles like electrons are called matter waves.'
-web.me.com/dtrapp/ePhysics.f/WDwaves.html
'The tides are caused by the gravitational forces on Earth exerted by the moon and sun. These “tidal forces” are not the total gravitational forces exerted by the sun and moon on Earth, but the difference between these gravitational forces over the surface of the planet. It may seem counterintuitive, but the gravitational forces of the moon and sun tug at the oceans primarily on the horizontal tangent and not the vertical plane to the Earth’s surface. This is partly why the high tide lags — also referred to as the lunitidal interval. This tugging produces a tidal “bulge” or area of higher sea level on the ocean’s surface. As Earth rotates eastward on its axis, water moves into this bulge, which produces a flood tide, and eventually a high tide. As Earth continues to rotate, we move into an area of below-normal sea level or nodes, which produce an ebb tide, eventually reaching low tide. The slack tide is when the tide is not coming in or going out. During a full as well as new moon, the sun and moon are aligned, producing strong tidal forces on the Earth. This is also referred to as spring tide, even though it doesn’t have anything to do with the spring season. These are the highest and lowest tides of the month. During the moon’s quarter phases, the gravitational forces of the moon and the sun are perpendicular to each other. Nearly canceling each other’s tidal forces out, the result is smaller high and low tides. This is referred to as neap tide. Earth’s orbit around the sun is really an ellipse, a shape that can be thought of as a “stretched out” circle or an oval. Tides are enhanced when Earth is at perihelion, when the whole planet comes closest to the sun. When we look at the tide tables, you should remember that these are only predicted values utilizing gravitational forces. During El Niño events, actual tides can be up to one foot higher due to thermal expansion of the water column. Storms can also affect sea level. Low atmospheric pressure associated with storms can allow ocean waters to expand, resulting in a temporary increase in sea level. Strong winds can cause additional elevation of sea level due to storm surges.Water is about 800 times denser than air. Waves and tides contain a great deal more potential kinetic energy than the winds for the same area or footprint.'
-John Lindsey
'How much energy do you think it takes to move the oceans? And what do you think it effects when it passes onto land?'
-John Needham (paraphrased)
'Research carried out by William Schulz of the United States Geological Survey in Denver, Colorado, and colleagues, {has concluded} that atmospheric tides are responsible for causing landslides...They discovered that the movements of the rubble were in sync with ‘atmospheric tides’ - daily highs and lows in atmospheric pressure that are excited by changing exposure to the Sun’s rays and by the Moon’s gravitational pull.'
-Nature News
'The two days on either side of the new lunar month represent most of the positive returns on equity markets for the next four weeks.'
- Macquarie Securities
'We find strong empirical support in favor of a geomagnetic–storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock returns for all US stock market indices. {There is} evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.'
-Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
'The year ahead appears to us to contain the most powerful planetary alignments in centuries, not just decades.At the recent NCGR conference in Cambridge, Mass., an astrologer said they checked back for sky patterns a thousand years and another piped up that they had looked back Ten Thousand years and neither had seen this one’s match! It would be considered a ‘done deal’ or a high probability that World Markets will Crash again during 2010. We will do everything but guarantee you that stocks will crash worldwide within three months of August first (that is between May 1 and November 1.'
-Arch Crawford
Well the Goldie imbroglio looks interesting, an institutional he-said she-said with ACA, but it would seem to this humble blogger that the folks not on trial are the ones that created the environment where the yield pigs were voraciously sniffing any and all troughs, namely the Federal Reserve and their low interest rate, Nancy Capitalist enablin', 'everything must go' free-market fire sale.
But examining causes and actions and connecting dots to consequences is just too complex. 'Tis much easier to obviate the Casus Foederis for a Casus Belli, allowing our blessed leaders to initiate metaphorical perp walks and enabling the pablum narrative solvent of cleansing and the, of course, obligatory turning of the page ....
One upside is that this does weaken the efficient market theory, that is, solons able to efficiently rig most any market to their benefit. Not that efficient market theory and its sauntering corollary random-walk needed much debunking, a trip to that antiquated warehouse, the library, or its' 21st century equivalent, Senor Google, offer ample empirical evidence that such foolish notions belong in the dustbin , not the acknowledged tome, of history.
What were the odds that the SEC would charge Goldie, not work out an 'agreement' a priori, and goodness me not at least give a courtesy call so Goldie could short themselves? Considerable no doubt.
But no more considerable than the odds of a Gaussian distribution explaining market movements. Of bubbles in your soda diagnosing bubbles in your portfolio. Of dice playing describing the nature of the dice itself much less the gamblers with same.
The progenitors of alternate theories have been largely ignored; the adherents to the ex-theory randomly maintaining that paradigms cannot be abandoned no matter how shaky, unsatisfactory models cannot be discontinued no matter how broken.
The logical progression of thought that adhering to a broken thesis in part precludes one from considering alternative schemas is a self-reinforcing loop of delusion.
But it did not have to be so...
There was a brief moment, of a few months, half a century ago, where an economic Einstein named Benoit Mandelbrot proved that discontinous market movements, allowable under random-walk to the probabilistic tune of a gazillion-squared, can be scientifically explained ... albeit in non-Gaussian terms.
This breakthrough however proved not only market movements but also that it was too difficult for folks to accept that which leaned into the wind of their strongly held self-perceptions.
So the fractal basis of market movements was relegated to an interesting thesis and its' proponents forced into the corner of proving a negative, rather than affirming a negative.
The debate continues today, folks that search for the underlying fractal pattern being asked if they are going to 'hang it up' if the market doesn't do this or that....
Never though will the naysayers put their theories under the empirical microscope to consider the odds, to fathom the impossibility, of random walk theory within the context of market movements of the last century or even the last few decades.
Consider, gentle reader, the premise from a different direction. If the markets are the data-set of humanity, if the markets are in effect expressing the nature of man, then does it not seem reasonable that the natural law, oft-repeated by traders of old, in fact both guides the nature of man and markets?
Is it snips and snails, and puppy dogs tails or for the gentler side, sugar and spice and all things nice?
As likely a random collection as anything else...
No, we, that is you and I, are made up of energy, energy that is described by its wave-particle duality. We vibrate and as such have a frequency, a wavelength, a harmonic, an energy signature...Seriously, you can look it up!
Now undoubtedly there is randomness on a micro scale, you are for example choosing to read this, but on a macro scale there are cycles, interactions if you will, between other waves, harmonics, energy sigs etc...
In fact I might, controversially , advance that you are reading this entry because mayhaps we both vibrate in a similar fashion!
That is where the substance of the Macquarie Securities quote and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta quote at the top of this post find its' origins...
That is why fellas like Arch Crawford have such an amazing record in sleuthing out turning points, almost always nailing the inflection, and usually nailing the direction.
The wave-particle duality inherent within the natural law has a fractal basis. This is expressed for linear systems, as but one example, by the superposition principle, the net response at a given place and time caused by two or more stimuli is the sum of the responses which would have been caused by each stimulus individually. It is further expressed, by Mandelbrot's assertion, that fractals are objects or quantities that display self-similarity on all scales. It is confusingly expressed in truly gobbledygook form with convoluted sentences like, 'The complex spaciotemporal patterns of atmospheric flows that result from the cooperative existence of fluctuations ranging in size from millimetres to thousands of kilometres are found to exhibit long-range spacial and temporal correlations. These correlations are manifested as the self-similar fractal geometry of the global cloud cover pattern and the inverse power-law form for the atmospheric eddy energy spectrum'.
Clearly the last fella is too advanced for our language.
What is not however too terribly advanced is that Mandelbrot discovered that power laws, a relationship between two quantities where the number or frequency of an object or event varies as a power of some attribute of that object, squares the broken circle of random-walk theory. It explains the heretofore unexplainable market movements of recent vintage. He was able to show that discontinuous market movements exhibited scalability, i.e., fractal behavior, when plotted on engineering graph paper - the kind with logarithmic scales in both directions. This was prima facie evidence of a power law behavior within markets. Power law merely describes the nature of a logarithm. The logarithm of a number to a given base {base 10 describes of course what most of us are familiar with)is the power or exponent to which the base must be raised in order to produce the number.
Power laws exist in nature, for example, gravity weakens by the inverse power of two with distance. Power laws describe the distribution of income in the upper reaches of society. Power laws also apply to the price movements of many financial instruments. Power law distributions allow for many more price swings than would the bell curve and this 'new paradigm' fits the data for many price series.
Power laws relate planetary structures to harmonic constructs ... in Kepler's harmonic mode of thought, the temporal primal intervals of the orbital periods must be raised to the second intervallic power, and the spatial primal intervals of the major axes must be raised to the third intervallic power. This means a power ratio of 2 : 3, i.e. the fifth, the most important interval after the octave.
As further advanced by Hartmut Warm, the order and movement of the planets in our solar system corresponds very accurately to simple geometrical figures and musical intervals, although in a different way than assumed in conventional concepts. One of the keys for an explanation is to be found in the analysis of the harmonical arrangement in the semiminor axes of the elliptical orbits, whereas earlier models and calculations were based on the semimajor axes. He concludes that, thus the ancient notion of a “harmony of the spheres” and especially the fundamental ideas of Johannes Kepler have been confirmed for the first time, and this in a manner that can principally be verified by everyone.
These harmonical arrangements are fractals of the Danielcode ratios, advanced by John Needham, who has an empirically exact method to trade the fractals discussed by Mandelbrot and that are the basis of natural law.
For your humble blogger, this preponderance of evidence, especially, in the canucklehead vernacular of Bubblevision, the 'actionable' dimension of John Needham's DanielCode, lends disturbing credence to Archie Crawford's prognostications and the potential Tacoma Bridge run-on effects of the waves coming to a planet near you.
Earthquakes, volcanoes and ? Oh my!
Clearly, the randomwalkers are underestimating the gravity of our situation.
Kenneth, what is the frequency?
Or more soberly,
Kenny? OMG!
Got fractals?"
Jesus fucking christ man, did you have to blurt it out and tell everyone?
From the link posted above:
"08:40 - Most of Europe´s airspace is still closed. The cloud of ash might reach Canada´s east coast at noon today (Icelandic time)."
The cloud inversion is massive. The clouds look like they are being sucked into the valcano. Speaking of valcanoes, cougerlife.com?
Also, the PM markets like whatever is happening.
And the US markets. They are digging on something. Probably low volume on the indexes due to time spent on cougerlife.com. No wonder GS outlawed ZH last week. No distractions while they clean their guns!
Lloyd looked around with a ferocious stare, "Is everybody ready?!" he yelled. "Yes sir," his minions responded. "You are about to usher in total destruction of the earth, and god forbid (referring to Lucifer) we get beat out by some chump volcano. Our time is now!" Abruptly and without warning Timmah Geithner sped out of the elevator on a tricycle. "IIII'MMM READY FUR WAR!!!!" He yelled this while waving a flag of Elmo over his head. He was carrying a supersoaker 50 filled with urine. "Damn it, someone get him out of here." He was carried out screaming, "But I want to play!" Lloyd grabbed a baseball bat. "OK world, get some."
Watch out for Hekla's brother............wait, here it comes........Jekla!
NATO: F-16 fighters damaged by volcanic ash
http://www.foxnews.com/world/201038/04/19/nato-f-fighters-damaged-volcanic-ash/
Damn Asteroid... or was it the LHC test ?... too many conicidences for me...
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/03/100330-large-hadron-coll...
http://www.redorbit.com/news/space/1648418/asteroid_gives_earth_a_close_...
This is what you get when you mess with Pope Lloyd.
From the Daily Mail: "
Britain's flight ban to be LIFTED tomorrow "
Looks like the volcano "crisis" is over.
what crisis ?
the only crisis is here on zerohedge.
and the only live eruption of brains
DMA Trader,
I'm curious why you would register with ZH 37 weeks ago yet only post comments on 11 articles during those entire 37 weeks.
And your comments are all clustered, as in 2 articles around 35 weeks ago, 2 articles 8 weeks ago, one article 3 weeks ago and then suddenly 6 articles today. Care to explain what drove you out of your burrow? I'm honestly curious.
Sure. Zero Hedge was a very good sourse of information during the crisis.
I use to come here daily. But after economy turned to corner and a V shape recovery
took place. A lifetime opportunity to get invested. A lot of smart people like
ZH is got so pesimistic that nothing else metter. Only getting Short.
This web site also Mish. went on a downtrend trend because they couldn adapt
to the reality. They were just blinded by their own opinions.
Look at articles now. How can someone give a false news like the volcano erruption
today. and say that EUR GDP is dead.
It is a Joke what ZH have become. Exactly the opposite of what was the reason
it was created. Where was the 1 good source during the crisis.
CNBC or ZH. ZH!
what about now. I do hope ZH will begin looking for facts and not som stupid volcano
eruption. Than i would be glad to stop by and comment more.
What do you whant me to say.
That you are missing a incredible opportunity shorting all market ?
Anyway just my 2c. if you wanted to know.
good trading
- hey, glad you came bye, wish you could stay, here's your fucking hat bitch.
What drugs are you on? It is getting worse.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Volcanic-Ash-Air-Passengers-War...
Hekla has not erupted, at least not yet.
Please check the facts before publishing, We all know you want to be first and quick with news, but with all the doom and gloom typical of ZH, unsubstantiated noise like this one lowers damages the credibility.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/19/hekla-volcano-activity-be_n_543171.html
CD wrote:
"More and more, the resulting stress is the trigger for people to begin to not only question their preconceived notions but to question whose preconceived notions they really are."
This from Orhan Pamuk"s novel "The Black Book":
"I was beside myself, so much so that I was thinking of picking up my own pen for the first time in fifteen years and publishing my own article, but I quickly talked myself out of it. - - - Because, you see, I realized I'd change nothing by proving that the life we live is someone else's dream".
But then Pamuck writes from the perspective of an individual who is part of the dream of a fallen empire - the Ottoman empire.
Yes!!! Whose dream are we living in the empire of the United States of America. Whose dream is "the American Dream"?
And what lies outside that dream.
And what possible effect can that which lies outside the dream have on those living the dream - a dream that is, in fact, someone else's dream.
Mandelbrot, geo-magnetism, the earth, the moon and the stars - - -
What is their dream - and what will they dream for us - - - - - - -
All in good time dearies - - - all in good time.