Breaking: Seep Found Near Blownout Well, BP Not Complying With Government Demands for More Monitoring

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AP notes:

A
federal official says scientists are concerned about a seep and
possible methane near BP's busted oil well in the Gulf of Mexico

Both could be signs there are leaks in the well that's been capped off for three days.

The AP article implies that the seeps are new since BP shut off the oil
flow into the Gulf as part of its "well integrity test", but doesn't
directly address that issue.

But as I pointed out on June 24th:

The Washington Post made a very important point yesterday:

Bruce
Bullock, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist
University, said additional leaks are a possible source of deep-sea
plumes of oil detected by research vessels. But this part of the gulf
is pocked with natural seeps, he noted. Conceivably the drilling of the well, and/or the subsequent blowout, could have affected the seeps, he said.

"Once you started disturbing the underground geology, you may have made one of those seeps even worse," he said.

Remember
that geologists have said that if the well casing is substantially
breached, the oil and methane gas will find a way through fractures in
the surrounding geology and make it into the ocean. For example, the
Houston Chronicle notes:

If the well casing burst it could send oil and gas streaming through the strata to appear elsewhere on the sea floor ....

Obviously,
if there are natural oil or gas seeps nearby, there are already
pre-existing channels up to the seafloor ... so that may very well be
the path of least resistance for the subterranean oil to flow up to the
seafloor.

Therefore, if there were a substantial breach in the
well bore, nearby natural oil and gas seeps could very well increase in
volume.

Because BP would like to minimize leak estimates to minimize the damages it has to pay under the Clean Water Act,
BP would undoubtedly try to pretend that the nearby natural seeps
always had the same volume. In other words, the owner of the oil
drilling prospect where the spill is occuring - BP - may be the only
party to have mapped out the nearby seeps (Anadarko and Mitsui were partners with BP in the oil prospect; but - as passive partners - they probably didn't take a hands-on approach to such details).

So don't be surprised if - when formerly tiny seeps become gushers - BP tries to pretend that they were always that large.

Indeed
- given BP's track record of prevarication - don't be shocked if BP
pretends that brand new gushers are ancient, natural seeps.

AP also notes:

The official says BP is not complying with the government's demand for more monitoring.

As I argued
at length on June 16th, we should not trust BP to stop the oil gusher,
and they should be removed from the scene of the crime and replaced
with people who don't have such a poor track record for safety and such
severe conflicts of interest.

The health of the entire Gulf region is at stake.

For background on the release of methane from the oil spill, see this.

Update: The top government official in charge of the response to the oil spill, Thad Allen, sent a letter to BP tonight addressing the seep, additional monitoring, and the need to re-open the containment cap.

Comments

[Broken_Trades]

Could it be that the situation is reversed -- instead of drilling into a field estimated at 1B+ barrels and finding only a measly 50-100M... you get the idea.

That could very well be the situation.  Keep in mind - a Play, a Field, a specific reservoir are all different things.  If what people are worried about is true, Saudi Arabia would have only drileld ONE HOLE into gawaawawar and they would have produced the entire thing...

The play could be the type of structure or trap specific to this area.  The field could have multiple traps, or the same trap over a very large area.  Within that you can have specific reservoirs that are actually commercially produceable.

IFFFFFFF they found 1B barrels, it would take many many wells to produce it all.

Also, assuming that the field really is only 50M, and using the estimate (forgot who posted it) of 30% recovery -that's still 15M barrels if it gushes uncontrolled into the GOM. That's a lot of donuts at $4K/barrel. And that's just the cash part of it. Would YOU award a drilling contract to BP after this?

I would award a drilling contract to a driller not an E&P.  ;-)

[gasmiinder]

All good points BT - for those who want to know what a billion barrel field looks like I posted this on a previous thread:

Since we're discussing Thunder Horse, it is a much better analog than Tiber or Kaskaskia, it is Miocene turbidites in a salt minibasin in the Mississippi Canyon offshore area and it can be instructive in regard to the points I've tried to make this evening.  It is the largest producing field in the GOM.  It includes 3 offshore blocks and has been described as a billion barrels recoverable.  The development consists of 25 wells with subsea completions tied back to a floating platform.  The discovery well encountered 520' of net pay in three intervals.  Thunder Horse two encountered 675' of net pay in three intervals.  A separate accumulation was found at Thunder Horse North with 581 net ft of pay. (http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/crazy_horse/ ) These numbers ought to help you parameterize the points I'm trying to make.  25 wells for a billion barrels is about 40 MMBOE per well.  

So that is what a billion barrel find looks like - 3 offshore blocks, 500-700 net feet of pay, 25 wells to develop.  This discovery is 75' of net pay and my costs guesses are assuming 2-4 wells to develop.  Hopefully that clarifies why I'm so adamant that when 'experts' talk about billion barrel reserves we are back in the 'making shit up' phase.

[CD]

I stand humbly corrected on all counts, but thanks for catching the drift...  As I say below, all of this (stimulating intellectual exercise though it may be) is of course mere speculation. But the longer this draws on, the more worried I would be for BP's long-term prospects in acquiring and retaining leases and partnerships.