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Breaking: South Korea Finds Cheonan Ship Sunk By North Korean Submarine Torpedo
In a stunning revalation, Reuters reports that according to South Korean intelligence, the Cheonan ship sinking in late March is due to a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine. The Kospi is down just 1% right now: we have a feeling it won't stay that way for long once this news is digested. After many had thought that South Korea was clearly covering for what was an overt North Korean act of aggression, this news is sure to take the Pacific Rim market to the edge. If Seoul is overtly accusing North Korea, it can only mean that South Korea will demand direct or indirect retaliation against the North as its government has already come out looking like both incompetent and cowardly. What kind of retaliation by the North this would in turn generate is completely unknown and could potentially escalate into full out conflict. According to South Korean intelligence and the US military, North Kora is now stepping up "drills to infiltrate a submarine south of the naval border, and wage a surprise attack against the South." Next stop - war? It may even cause the S&P to end on a downtick in tomorrow's session. On the other hand, global thermonuclear warfare surely is a victory for the gamma radiation scraper bulls.
From Reuters:
The Yonhap news agency report appears to be the clearest sign yet that Seoul blames Pyongyang for the sinking, thought to have killed 46 sailors in what would be one of the deadliest incidents between the rivals since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
The military's intelligence arm sent the report of "certain" North Korean involvement to the presidential Blue House soon after the incident, Yonhap quoted a high-ranking military source as saying.
The report could be an embarrassment to South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, whose government has come under criticism for its handling of the incident.
"North Korean submarines are all armed with heavy torpedoes with 200 kg (441 lb) warheads," the military source was quoted as saying by Yonhap. "It is the military intelligence's assessment that the North attacked with a heavy torpedo.
"The military intelligence has made the report to the Blue House and to the Defence Ministry immediately after the sinking of the Cheonan that it is clearly the work of North Korea's military," the source was quoted as saying.South Korea plans to soon raise the front half of the 1,200-tonne Cheonan, which went down near a disputed sea border with North Korea, and will issue its verdict on the cause of the explosion that sank the warship after that.
Analysts said there is little South Korea can do even if Pyongyang is found to be the culprit, because a military response was likely to hurt its own quickly recovering economy and bolster North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's standing at home.
The reclusive North has denied it had anything to do with the sinking near the disputed sea border off the west coast that has already been the scene of two deadly naval battles in the past decade.
It accused Lee of using the incident for political gains ahead of crucial local elections in June.
Yonhap said the South Korean and U.S. military suspected the North was stepping up drills to infiltrate a submarine south of the naval border, hidden among Chinese fishing boats, and wage a surprise attack against the South.
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Look for unusual trading patterns in Kim Chee Swaps:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/S6HvYWSu9MI/AAAAAAAADJw/ywQlYyTdAl...
I knew something was fishy... what is going to be the excuse to buy the markets tomorrow?
market rally during war times
This is dear leader.This is dear leader on crack.Any questions?
Oh crap.
Now THIS is entertainment!
It's NOT entertainment. Men are dead. Did you read the article? The South plans to raise the "front half" of a 1200-ton ship that was sunk by a 440 explosive charge. Please think about that a little, Mr. "Blackbeard."
I think it's reasonably certain that there is no naval activity along this coast that isn't tracked constantly in real time. This sub was surely tracked from before the time it left port. The torpedo firing was no doubt recorded as it occurred.
http://aw1tim.wordpress.com/2010/01/12/the-new-sosus-optical-asw/
Navy using optical sonar sensors to enhance submarine detection and alleviate maintenance problems
By John Keller
WOODLAND HILLS, Calif. — Sonar experts from the Northrop Grumman Navigation Systems Division in Woodland Hills, Calif., envision a vast ocean-floor optical sensor array that can detect and track some of the world's quietest submarines through minute phase shifts of light.
This array, which U.S. Navy leaders call the All Optical Underwater Segment — or AO-UWS — is to be deployed in strategic ocean areas that
either funnel heavy submarine traffic, or where pinpointing hostile submarines is crucial.
The AO-UWS could go on line as early as 2004, says Jim Andersen, director of business development for fiber optic acoustic systems at Northrop Grumman Navigation Systems. Northrop Grumman engineers are designing the AO-UWS optical sensor array under terms of an $8.9 million contract from the U.S. Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR) in San Diego. The 24-month development program will culminate in an at-sea demonstration of the system sometime in 2003.
Among the chief advantages of underwater optical sensors are sensitivity and reliability, Andersen says. Optical sensors are to augment or replace
existing underwater arrays of electronic hydrophones that are part of the U.S. Navy's Integrated Undersea Surveillance System — better known as the IUSS.
The whole point of submarines is stealth, and no amount of hype can change the fact that submarines still exist because they are very difficult to keep track of. The oceans are huge and submarines are tiny by comparison, add in the third dimension of depth, the confounding nature of underwater biologics, water temperature bands, blah, blah, blah, and it's not 'reasonably certain' that all submarine activity is tracked 'contantly' in 'real time.' The sound of a torpedo launch is easier to detect, but by then it's quite a bit too late.
Added: in this case, it may well be the case that the sub was detected and tracked, but, if so, the specific case is not generalizable to all cases.
I think it's reasonably certain that there is no naval activity along this coast that isn't tracked constantly in real time. Did you read?
maybe the chinks sold em a rubber stealth sub?
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/2993
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/sub/type039song.asp
someone needs to relax the panties and hit the Maalox. I detect blockage and level 10 retentiveness.
The South should take this nut job out once and for all. They now have the perfect excuse. Of course they must first consider whether they'll get their asses kicked.
They may be faced with a dilemma... "if we do nothing, we're real big pussies and if we do something, we're gonna get our ass kicked."
Tough spot perhaps.
Every nation or group of people is redeemable. It is how this is done which is the tricky bit. All behaviour is a result of mindset and setting.
They are trying to choose the 3rd option:
Wait for Kim Jong-Il to die and hope the next leader is Khrushchev to the Kim/Stalin.
....and then the next leader will plant corn and the crop will fail
The North can put 80,000 shells an hour on the 5th most populous municipality in the world, from positions they've been digging into the mountains for 50 years. You could bomb them out... one at a time. Almost certainly not quickly enough to prevent a tremendous loss of life.
North Korea would have no chance in a real military conflict between the North and the South. South Korea has vastly superior arms, training, and planning and logistics capabilities.
Unless, of course, China decided to intervene on the North's behalf, in which case South Korea is f**ked.
I doubt China would do this given that North Korea is not a country worth helping and China knows it ... but given how many unemployed young men China has, it might decide to enter the war anyway just to blow off some of its excess population.
Yeah, maybe they have... the Republican Guard!!!
south korea needs usa to fight its wars just like saudi arabia !!!!!!!!!! saudi princes don`t fight in wars !!!!!!!!!!!!
No, it doesn't need the USA's help to fight (assuming China doesn't get involved).
The North Korean military can't hold a candle to the South.
Hmmmm... Bully with tiny penis inflicts small pain on another bully with tiny penis. WHO FUCKINGS CARES.
Has fuck-all to do with us.
This is China's show to run; let them handle it.
We already have enough Forever Wars that we can't afford.
Thanks for the voice of sanity. Might help GM sales a little too if Hyundai loses a few factories. ;-)
wow, tomorrow just got much more interesting.
The Norks really bungled the currency swap back in the fall, and rumors of mass starvation are flowing out of the North regularly. The North Koreans may be facing a use-it-or-lose-it situation -- their army (not to mention the rest of the nation) may be down to fumes, so the leadership is pushing for a war now before everything deteriorates too far to be usable.
So delay by the South would be a tactical advantage even if it is unpopular...
How will oil react to this news?
Uranium Bitches!!
Maybe this will bring a revival of the old MASH series.
What I do not understand is why the US military is there. Is there oil in S Korea?
Or are we still preventing the domino effect of communism from taking hold?
The US NEVER leaves a territory. Look at Germany, are our boys there to stop the Soviets? Look at the UK, are our troops there to make sure the Nazi's don't take over? The US does not leave countries no matter the geopolitics.
Rare, is the salient point (pun intended) made here in comments section, excellent, bravo.
Yes, indeed, we just don't leave. Americans wonder why the world hates us, why? Meanwhile, we occupy 70% of the worlds countries.
Iraq, the war that will never end. Insurgents coming from everywhere "outside of" that country. Why, because those of the middle eastern countries don't want military base planted in their back yard. Even Richard Clark has illustrates this point, he goes unheard. The deafness echoes of the months before 911.
While I do agree with both of your positions on the US military being like herpes,
I am sarcastic and argumentive often.
Panama (no military)
just sayin'
hehe
Uzbekistan begs to differ.
Agreed, The Project For The New American Century was real and we have Russia and China almost surrounded. How about Zbigniew Brzezinski and 'The Grand Chessboard' not being a work of fiction.
Where else would Trillions disappear to?
We sometimes leave. The countries we
"occupy" surely have mixed feelings
about it. Yankee go home while working
at the base and enjoying the economic
benefits of our "occupation". Its
never a serious effort to make us leave
its always half-hearted.
Then a Mount Pinatbo can happen and we
pick up and leave right away. OOOPS.
Yankee come back!!!
Toxic groupthink north of the border is the problem. US Forces are required for some time yet.
Its a little game that has been played throughout the centuries called 'Empire'
Floydian Slip,
The U.S. military is there because it is the enforcement arm of our international tax system. We conquer a country, take its goods, and give them fiat paper which we continually devalue to buy stuff from us. It's a really good deal.
i see... keep them occupied with inflation and having to look over your shoulder at your crazy neighbors, then they wont even care about a foreign military
what a fucked up peninsula that is eh? you know china and russia dont want us there.
this reply format is confusing
if i had a 2 meter high monitor with a large ruler it wouldnt be so bad
Surely you jest. Do you realize how many bargirls and yobo's it takes to service 40,000 GIs. Talk about a jobs program.
We become part of the local economy. Those 50,000 troops in Germany are spending American dollars. Its part of our "Bail Out the World" plan. (then our bankers take them over)
CLIENT SUPPORT:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/04/client-support-is-appreciated...
The South Koreans knew what happened three weeks ago. The power dynamics on the Peninsula are being managed. This incident (I use the term not to mitigate the terrible loss of life) will not lead to a war between the two states. It's a lukewarm-tense war that will simmer along...
You are probably right but why go public with this now? It seems the reason for it would favor some military action although based on previous conflicts, the chances of any military action by the South seems remote.
Why now? - come on, take a look out the window, Lots of storm clouds, lots of Thunder and wind.
Can you say "diversion from perversion"
Us Military Commander S Korea > Leak this out boys so the markets look at the big scary monster in the North.
South Korea President > why you want diversion master
MC > listen gook if I'm given and order from Wall street I carry it out -got it!
SK President > you merican's like fry lice - full of shit that fill up but no substance -ru go fuck urself we sick of you sweeping in our beds and no helping round the house
MC > Get used to it gook boy you owe us for 38 parrallel and we own everything south, so jump on it like a good house boy
SK Pres > OK master (muttering under his breath- You loser u fucked big time hungre people from north face death from no fry lice and you look fat like pig they no ever see and hunger make people crazy - you die first like Custer, they my roung rost cousins)
Storm in a tea-cup.
First, I think South Korea will take the pussy route and issue a statement of condemnation, nothing more. Some right wingers will don headbands and protest, clashing with riot gear wearing police. They'll be lots of chanting. North Korea will answer that with some typical Third World hyperbole about turning the South into a "river of boiling blood". The North might even test fire a missile or two into the sea of Japan.
Markets will ignore it, just as they have ignored Greece, Goldman, CRE, excess debt, and all the other things that "have been priced in" in a 100% one year rally.
Indeed, as the smoke settles on this incident, the market will find reason to rally out of relief over something that did not even scare it to begin with. Such is the mood. We all just want to be happy happy happy.
+1,000
The markets will shrug this off like they've done with everything else (H1N1, Dubai, Greece, Goldman, etc) and continue their way higher. The Asian markets have already rebounded from their daily lows as have the DOW futures, now a whopping 11 points down. (EDIT: update, futures now up 20 and euphoria in Europe over Nestle sales climbing 4%)
Harry Wagner is a troll whose posts are solely intended to provoke. But at the end of every trading day, I'm further in the red waiting for the "big correction" based on all these events, while he's more in the green just by following the trend. The way things are going that "tomorrow is the day" may never come.
The North Korean Super Achievement of Eternity Public Broadcasting Corporation has just featured a story of Kim Jong-Il playing a round of golf to calm the nerves of the natives. (He is known as the "Great Putting Leader" after his website reported that he shot a world record 31 under par 41 at the Pyongyang Golf Course in 1952 as a wee-pup.) In keeping with the schizophrenic and contrary messages emanating from the DPRK golfing-fanatic Kim resting in the clubhouse after the round summoned his caddies around to issue an ultimatum to the USA. If he is not allowed to play Tiger Woods in a match play tournament to prove he is the worlds best he will nuke Seoul.
are you being funny?
cause if he shot a 31 that's only 9 holes, i would think this pyongyang GC would be 18 holes.
Could be the beginning of another theater of war.
I remember reading a theory that WW3 will start when the US will be stretched with its military.
IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, IRAN, KOREA, then china gets aggressive with Tawain. The US being the protector is obligated to get involved. It becomes so stretched it can't defend anyone, and it all begins to unravel.
Liking the avatar!
Could be no biggie. Could be a nice diversion from the 2nd wave of US GDP shrink. NKorea has spread nukes everywhere. Why not destroy them before they sell the final parts to Iran? Obama just had some big summit on stray uranium. Who loves Kim Ill Song? The military/industrial/political complex would love to blow him to King Dum Cum!
it is said north korea has extensive artillery within range of seoul.
I should have said TPTB want to use the excuse of nuke proliferation to start a war[diversion]. I hope it doesnt occur. With the rockets pointed at Seoul from the border 70 miles away, it would be terrible. But war would distract US voters before Nov 2010. Maybe our military has a way to do a sneak attack on the rockets to disable most of them?
I worked in South Korea. I enjoyed it. I have also never witnessed so many friends willing to go to physical blows over the "honor" of paying the bill after a night of eating and drinking. This is unlikely to resolve well without serious assertive intervention by others.
I'm filling in for Harry Wagner tonight.
A North - South Korean War is bullish
Israel bombing Iran is bullish
A major eruption of Katla stopping air traffic in Northern Europe for a couple of years and causing crop failures in Europe and Russia is bullish.
All three of these events happening simultaneously maximum bullish - DOW 100,000 here we come!
+1 ROFL!!
Some plausible-looking analysis of South Korea's options. Interestingly, although the blogger's a big NK hawk he doesn't think the South should make a military response this time.
WTF?
Fuck off and never disgrace the halls of ZH ever again, you close-minded, sick prick. What a Fucking Idiot! I will junk your presence any time I see you here. Find a hole, preferably your ass, and bury your head in it. As you are obviously so impressed and self-absorbed with your own perfection, you'd probably enjoy the view.
The above comments by Trial of the Pyx (WTF) and mine, are in response to a truly shameful, racist comment, posted by some moron racist; Sudden Debt. For those who are confused, it seems his comments and entire post have been removed.
Kuds' to you for that Tyler but I for one, would rather he had been left there on display, advertising his disgraceful ugliness for all to see. I do understand your motive, however.
Zero Hedge, Zero Racism.
I hope it's good riddance to that equivalent of a skid mark on underpants.
Thanks; not having seen Mr. Debt's contribution I was wondering rather.
Everyone in Thailand thought the protests would end peacefully and if you said people where going to die you where called a lunatic. Now 800 people are injured and 21 dead. Nothing will happen til it does. I will be the first to say that shit will eventually fly in Korea.
The King's health is an issue for Thailand, although if I was there I might then suffer a bad case of lèse-majesté. It is very important to respect a king, but he has to be present on the stage when the going gets tough. Certain kings carry more sway than others...
My fellow South Korean coworkers don't seem too worried. The ship sinking is big news here. Everyone knew or at least assumed that it was North Korea, just like everyone knew that there would be no war. They say that scares like these seem irrelevant in their uber-competative busy lives.
As a side note that I find interesting, the overwhelming majority of Koreans I speak to prefer unification, even after I point out all the ways how it seems like a piss poor idea. (They value land much more here due to their relative lack of it.) But most accept the current paradigm as a pretty dandy situation as well.
Indeed. Anyone familiar with S. Korean movies and TV (which by and large are far more compelling and entertaining than American counterparts) should appreciate that N. Korea is perceived not as an enemy, but as sort of a problematic sibling. Unification is recognized as a desired goal. America, on the other hand, is often perceived as an arrogant bully. The American media convey nothing of this (no surprise there).
sudden debt, tho i be white, i recognize our spiritual commonality. Are you from mars? Your heart and mind need cleaning up.
How many potential consumers live in North Korea? The true bullishness of war in times of major sovereign debt is directly proportional to the number of consumers that war would liberate, the lack of a local source of production, and a special trading relationship between victor and vanquished and, of course, minus the cost of opening that market. Or so I read somewhere....
The Peninsula will be reunited in the coming years and decades. The Korean War was a complete waste of time and energy. A proud and ancient culture was besieged by competing geo-political game players and the result was a disastrous split. The mindset of the North Koreans is interesting. Many Koreans from the north fought valiantly against the invading Japanese circa WWII. In an interesting footnote, last year the North played the South is a world cup qualifier. At the end of the game all the players shook hands. The look on their faces was one of quiet hope and friendliness layered with years of distrust. Like two brothers who have been estranged from each other due to outside forces and repeated trauma. Both teams are playing again in South Africa 2010. The land is destined to be united eventually.
What is it with the 38th parallel north.
Every stinking corpse Country in the World has this line passing through it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/38th_parallel_north
must be the weather making em crazy
Korea-Afghan-Iran-Italy-Greece-USA.....
Yup, you're right, they're all there.
Conspiracy Alert - False Flag Incident, US fired torpedo, N.Korea gets the blame.
GAME ON.
Pitcairn Island Secret Service, (PISS) as they are known in the intelligence world, did the dastardly deed. They have just been funded by China and are seeking a share in the land carve up post nuclear war.
I love how when I read comments on ZH, every single military incident, terrorist attack, or rumor of a possible terror attack immediately gets the words FALSE FLAG.
awww Hell! It's all in fun, until somebody gets hurt. I think TSHTF!
Food for Thought:
"Daniel Ellsberg was aware that the Tonkin incident was a lie very early on;
It is going to be time N + S Korea sort out their s$!&. This has been going on for far too long.
Probably very likely that the corvette was sunk by a torpedo, but I doubt the South iwll do anything about it.
Neither China nor the US will permit either side to take action against the other.
After it all blows over, some quiet accomodations will be made, money will change hands, and those in the know on both sides will be told to keep quiet or else.
Nothing new here.
KrvtKpt laughing swordfish
DKM Trading Division
Are you sure?
If the South decided to take unilateral action against the North and cross the border, what could the USA do about it? We'd wave our hands and scream and shout and hold meetings and press conferences but you can't stop boots on the ground without boots of your own on the ground.
And if the North decided to do something foolhardy -- which I think is the much more likely scenario -- what could China do?
Needless to say, the implications of this for housing prices in Bayside Queens are truly insane!
MARKET UPDATES :
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
Oh, perhaps a nork submarine or two should just fail to report in...permanently. The north wouldn't advertise that sort of inglorious incident, obviously. The south needn't mention it either. A "what? me?" would suffice. Everyone could carry on their respective games in enhanced safety for all. Perhaps this scenario has already played out.
It was all part of the machination of the US China "negotiating" currency manipulation vs not buying US treasuries.
Don't we have treasury auctions next week?
Not much to do. North Korea has like 10,000 artillary pieces plus missiles plus a million bored soldiers pointed south. I'm surprised they haven't over run south Korea already.
Doesn't matter. South Korea could wipe the North off the map if push came to shove. Numbers are far less important in a military conflict than superior technology, training, and planning capabilities, and the South has all of those.
All democracies become cowards eventually.
All you really know is that someone fired a heavy torpedo that has characteristics of what is used in the North.
Edit: NK is going to attack SK? Then what.. invade with a military from a starving country where an AK 47 weighs more than the soldier? Sorry, makes no sense..Seems more like someone is pulling the ol'Gulf of Tonkin play out..
China uses North Korea all the time as a "negotiating" instrument. Everytime the US Congress goes into China bashing mode the North Koreans do some crazy sh*t. It's one of their more effective negotiating tactics. The threat from the Chinese basically is "hey we can keep this nut under wraps but this whole currency manipulation talk must go bye bye". Nobody is going to war over one ship. It was just a message being sent.
North Korea has made billions of dollars over the years by destabilizing or threatening to destabilize the region. They're up to it again. They know there will be no consequences other than payoff money.
paraphrase
banks made billions of dollars over the years by destabilizing or threatening to destabilize the world's economies. They're up to it again. They know there will be no consequences other than payoff money.
+1000
Breaking News - there is little mention of this breaking news in the MSM
You beat me to it, anon. I can't find this anywhere on bloomberg or MW.
it was on BB.com last night. Bottom of the top headlines.
Nothing on Business Insider. Probably bumped by the story on an oil trader's KO punch. You can understand why
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