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Breathtaking 250 pip Intraday Move In Euro As Central Banks Try To Kill EUR Shorts, Goldman Loses More Money For Its Clients
The move in the EUR has just hit ridiculous levels, with the nearly 300 pip intraday move comparable only to the EURCHF surge seen yesterday after quadruple SNB intervention. And frazzled US quants, having no clue what to do, decide to once again turn on the EUR signals pushing the market higher, with a 10% chance of a green close. Make no mistake - this is reciprocal liquidation, where morning margin calls in all other pairs were met by EURUSD covering of shorts, exacerbated massively by what is now almost certain ECB (not SNB) intervention. The negative here is that Germany will look at the Eur response and pitch its naked short ban to all other European countries, which will now gladly accept the proposal, myopically hoping for another 1-2 bp move in the EURUSD. We believe there may well be an announcement of a Europe-wide naked short covering ban this weekend, coupled with the imposition of a transaction tax.
Amusingly, Goldman which earlier decided to once again so short the EURUSD has once again lost its clients money even as Goldman adds another day to its Q2 perfect quarter. And while we dont have confirmation on that yet, Goldman's FX desk just closed a trade initiated on May 10 with a stop loss for a 3% loss.
Trade Update: Stopped Out of Long MYR, IDR and PHP vs JPY with a Potential Loss of -3.5% May 20, 2010
We were stopped out of our tactical recommendation to be long MYR, IDR and PHP vs the JPY at the London close, with a potential loss of around -3.5%. We entered the trade on May 10th at a level of 100, shortly after the package from the European heads of state was announced. Our recommendation was based on the assumption that the package would assuage the risk jitters in the market stemming from liquidity and solvency fears over Euroland, and that the market would start to trade the macro data once again. In the event, markets have remained more jittery than we had anticipated.
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Die die die my doelarr!!!!
From, THE DOELARR: A LEGACY UNMATCHED
First, the doelarr "strength" to continue tightening the trading range of Euro/USD. The move to $1.30 will happen quick, in the next week or two. DXY to trade roughly at 81.5. Gold and silver will continue to make nominal highs against the Euro, as well as push back up to the nominal highs for the doelarr. Then there will be a move down to $1.25 Euro USD with the DXY staying in the 81.5 range. By late May, the pressure from the doelarr will have peaked, as the State budgets of America will once again be addressed. California, will legalizing pot combine with personal investment by Walled Street in Hollywood save your ship?
4.21.10
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/open-thread-reader-not-making-any-payme...
If the truth about the oil spill gets out any sooner they will be announcing evacuation plans for coastal communities - the air is toxic: workers lungs look like smoker's lungs; chemicals in air have "narcotic" effect and can potentially "fry" the brain. It has only just begun:
http://www.wpbf.com/video/23570999/index.html
AP is also now reporting the massive underwater plumes that are miles long:
http://www.wpbf.com/video/23570999/index.html
Coast Guard threatening arrest of CBS crews filming on the beach:
http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0520/coast-guard-bps-rules/
So I was just thinking, if ZeroHedge had a theme song, I think this would be it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr_CJL1YQRc
Awesome. Strong competition from the A-team:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MVonyVSQoM
And when the WIC computers fail to update foodstamp funds:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7sGp7Glxis
My choices would be:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKj04naydFY
and if you'd prefer some more retro vibes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkSx9Hckxis&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmUlKPthrag
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GN1grF2rXpM&feature=related
Looking back, I'm not sure why I liked this stuff, and Chef Boyardee ravioli.
possibly: Gold, Guns, Girls by Metric: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYLjHhSOE7s
Coast Guard threatening arrest of CBS news crews?LOL
Imaginge if a non Democratic president had given that order to the Coast Guard. The MSM would be foaming at the mouth on the coverup of the environmental catastrophe. You know ORhamaRod has a huge problem when Paul "Freddie" Krugman and Thomas Friedman are writing preemptive stories on ORhamaRod's Katrina.
How many people lost big expecting a late day 'melt-up' only to get burned when it closed lower? (That's rhetorical, you don't have to admit it.)
To be honest, I bled in S&P 500 and made a killing in EUR/JPY. I hope central bank innterventions will not stop. Adding liquidity to the markets is helping my personal liquidity. He, he...
Stay away from markets the government is manipulating either buying or selling………rigged markets are never ever a good place to invest.
Agreed. Sell everything. Cash is king.
Cash is trash.
One dude's cash is another's trash.
I'm the trash man, and will take all you want to get rid of, while I await catastrophe.
Deal?
My cash only moves towards silver and food at this point, so I will take a Pino Noir or some silver bullion coins, deal?
I'll be more than happy to supply you with silver and food in return for your cash!!!
sounds good email me at pressthedangredbutton@giggle.edu
oh, and the food has to be organic, and the coins official. see you on the other side.
I'll give you some "certified" organic food....LOL!!!
...."official" in what sense??? who's mug do you want stamped on the coin??? Is it the value of the stamp or the value of the metal you are after???
double dip on that post mr. Hendrix.. Im really trying to come up with the paper to get a solar powered well pump.I already have the well drilled and is ready to go..
My coin man is out..no more coinage, only numi's..Im going to hit the flea markets this weekend and hope to drum up some more 90% scrap..
The casino that is wall street is complete chaos.There is nobody to bet with so they have turned to gambling with each other..
Oh man! I would love to know about a solar powered well pump!!!! I am a little optimistic for our well, as we use hydro-electricty and peak oil should not give us too hard of a time (right away), but in the case that everything goes to hell, which I think is very plausable, I would need solar knowledge. If you know any websites, please drop them.
Gracias,
http://www.wind-sun.com/ForumVB/index.php
A Japanese solar panel, a German solar panel, and an American solar panel all walk into a bar. The bartender says, is this some kind of weird joke?
Duplicate....
Cash is for amateurs. Can't trade volatility? Can't keep a Portfolio market neutral? Can't exploit the panicking plebs? Pro traders live for days like today. Let's have many years of days like today. While you guys swelter in your shelter... and get up at 3:00 AM to polish your gold coins... I'm gonna double, triple my net worth in the next 2-3 years.
Right. Something is really wrong. The bandaid being put on the Euro now is ominous. I believe someone really knows that some big Euro banks are insolvent.
If you read Tyler's other post on SocGen's LIBOR bid (as well as Rabo's), you gotta believe that therre's a heap o' trouble brewing.
If quant traders can't make money, how the heck does the average Joe do it? One would have to be insane to be trading these markets.
The words "price" and "value" no longer have meaning.
Not true.
I can guarantee you that the above average 'working girl' will give you your money's worth and more.
I know several otherwise very smart and lucky guys who are enamored of betting on horse races, the pups, and Blackjack.
And they are as sane as any other human. It's 'play' money (I believe).
Dunno about horses and dogs, but the odds are fully knowable on Blackjack, which makes it completely different from today's so-called 'markets'.
How can anyone invest like a rational person when central banks and governments won't let ANYTHING play out? This is ridiculous. I'm about ready to take my ball and go home.
As well you should. I pulled out a month ago. I haven't regretted it. I sleep much better at night.
"Why The Markets Are Smarter Than Goldman Thinks"
the Euro intervention spike began just after the S&P 500 broke through support (see chart together) followed by 2% Euro/$US rise in 90 minutes, which means this could easily be the Fed printing US dollars and buying Euros that are then flowing into US stocks, since other markets are now closed. Notice the fire hose effect, where any reduction in the flow under the Euro causes it and stocks to drop like a rock. Wonder how long til they have to turn off the flow?
do you guys remember the days we had a non planned government guided economy? Good days... good days...
well, I'm off to the party meeting. See you there comrads!
What if the cb's manipulated the markets and nobody played along????
This scenario is developing as we type...
The answer to your not-so-hypothetical question will be known in the coming months...
PS: can somebody please EXPLAIN TO ME why the Oil price is as high as Brent?
My lazy ass just lost 400pips of profit to the FRBNY. In other news, other risk assets are anemic in spite of the engineered Euro rally.
they can prop it a few days, but as dumping (not selling) continues while it's still possible because they are the buyers there only remains 1 predetermined ending.
The laws of economics stay the same, even as some of them try to write extra laws between the lines.
Copy that. I haven't covered. I've been short since the mid 30s. It just slightly pisses me off, that billions worth of tax money was used to juice the EUR by aprox. 2.5 cents.
Its Melt Up 101 Bernanke style
BS gave Trichet the cheat code for unlimited fun bux.
Forget currencies, check out the move on Suntech today (and the day ain't over):
Leo, you were born to "bird-dog" those hedge funds!
LEO! Solars are investment products! Bound to crash! SELL THEM!
Tyler, for the love of all things sacred, let's please see some Central Blogger intervention and take away Leo's ability to post Yahoo! charts.
What's wrong, are you short solars? LOL!
So are you liking your solar install. What panels did you go with? Did you go lead acid or Gel batteries?
Goldman naked shorted the sun last night to give US army it's continued we own the night advantage. Or else they are going to try to get the last fight to happen in Alaska during the winter.
Yeah down 37% from a month ago...dip shit...
Don't listen to these imbeciles Leo... Tell them what you really think!
single, intraday charts and 5 day charts still won't make your portfolio unfucked.
build your own solar park. Independent energy could be important after the breakdown of civilization.
Well, that's too bad for the US Taxpayer.
Dont worry, you might be losing money with every trade but you'll make it up on volume
They can only do this so many times before their precious EURO dies. Why run it out. Let it die already.
These are some of the craziest moves I've seen in the currencies. From 1.2150 yesterday to a 1.26 print minutes ago. Actually, the Snp is doing pretty poorly considering this euro rally, it should have atleast been able to break the 1094 morning high but it failed. Liquidations across the board into any type of rally. Energy, Metals, Meats(except bellies) all getting smashed. Grains and Softs doing ok, all things considered.
true that, joneog.
Except probably true crashes i.e. 1987, Thai Baht.
Let's see how much ECB borrowed from the Fed under
those infamous swap lines.
And this did OK
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PHYS+Interactive#symbol=PHYS;range=1y
i lose money when i buy 3x etfs by following my gut...this time i purposefully went against it and bet the other way for shits & grins. And now i'm losing money by following my George Costanza model. I'm having another cocktail now, can i get anyone anything while i'm up?
I'll have a Crown and ginger if you're offering......
Please leave those double and triple levered etfs alone. they bleed like pigs.
Here is an interesting math riddle: S&P is lets say down 1% over a two day period. The Double Levered ETF is down 4% AND the Double Inverse ETF is also down 4%. Huh? How can that be?
S&P is up10% on Monday, down 10% on tue - so down 1% over the two day period right? starts at 100 - goes to 90 on Monday, 99 on tuesday.
The Double levered ETF is up 20% on Monday, down 20% on Tuesday. So goes from 100 to 120 to 96. Loss 4%.
The Double Inverse ETF goes minus 20% on Monday, Plus 20% on Tuesday. So goes from 100 to 80 to 96. For a 4% loss.
i learn for a while, then i forget those losses.
i come to the casino rarely, and i plan on losing.
then i stop and buy bullion on the way home.
Yep, out and out. This is a sham and I don't care to play any more of the student body right / left anymore. I'm ahead of 98% of the public but haven't a clue how to win in this market...so, when you can't tell who the dope is at the table, it's you. Chips in hand and leaving table.
look what happened to the shorts in December 2008
Beware of "Orderly Insolvency" of Greece.
This is like when you were a kid playing a game with your big brother and every time you thought you did something right, he changed the rules on the fly. Sucker.
Trading is officially finished - to have money anywhere near a so called publicly traded market is financial suicide . It's like playing roulette with a magnet under the wheel or the casino handing gamblers loaded dice . I had straddled a couple of stocks w/ puts and calls - Thing I am asking myself now is if they become in the money will I actually be able to cash out ?
it looks that more short-covering and interventions are in the cards... to take out 1.2618 (ironically a fib quote) on the 50% retracement of 1.3093-1.2143 - last down leg following the Greece bailout announcement (weekend squeeze to 1.3093). 1.2430 providing support now.
buy, buy, buy!
redacted
I just don't get it Tyler, a 300 pip move on Forex is not that "gargantuan" at all.
I think you guys are not very familiar with the foreign exchange market because in almost all your articles about it pip movements are described with superlative words when in truth they are not that big at all.
EUR/CHF daily range is about 150 pips, double days like yesterday are not that uncommon.
GBP/JPY called the BEAST among traders because of its wild movements has movements in excess of 400 pips per day, 600 or 700 pips in a volatile day are also not uncommon .
EUR/USD the most traded pair in the world moves around 200 pips per day. Over one week time frame (if you count all the swings) this pair alone moves a lot more than 1000 pips.
I just don't get it why you guys exaggerate so much the importance to a few pips over the normal....
@Platypus : Only a true Forex coinaisseur tracks historical volatility, the gourmets calculate with expected volatility. Tyler is calculating in "superlative" volatility. :=) Today was just a short covering story, nothin else. Of course these short covering stories can be pretty nasty in a low liquidity environment - hum, like we experienced in the US stock markets from March last year until March this year...With the help of SLP everything is possible. Now, whether central banks have entered "SLP" terrain remains to be seen...good luck trading !!!!
For several days I warned of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators - and this has been confirmed by the recent Euro break out.
The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
I seriously doubt that it was an intervention from the ECB. Gap or no gap they should come out and say something if they do. What purpose do they think they fill otherwise? I am seriously sceptic they did or that they (ECB) will do any currency intervention at these levels. What on earth for?