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Brent Hits $119.44

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The energy complex is certainly enjoying discounting the end of quantitative easing, and is doing so in style: Brent briefly touched a multi year high of $119.44, as it prepares to play chicken with the OPEC threat of pumping more oil once it passes the psychological barrier. And crude, despite the well-known and much discussed issues at Cushing, almost passes $108. No matter what anyone says, this is extremely bullish for the economy and (inverse) wealth creation. At this point we are clearly back to 2008 trendlines to see whether oil can keep up with stock, which are back on their trendline to hit Birinyi's target of 2,700 or something within a year. And $300 oil is very bullish too, especially with the nuclear energy business now, well, out of business. At if all else fails it's ok: the Great Chairsatan can just print some more oil.

Brent:

Crude:

 

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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:09 | 1125320 aVian
aVian's picture

bullish - inflation in check sarc off - somethings going on, the dollar is up too ... tick tock

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:20 | 1125584 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

No decent gold journalism today. What gives?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1125326 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

That WTI at $107+ is highly bullish too or something.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125351 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

look at the freaking RBOB gasoline futures - my 15 minute delayed Bloomberg has them at 314.37 up 3.60 cents... buy retail and GM hand over fist, this is as bullish as it gets!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1125328 drink or die
drink or die's picture

nuclear-powered cars, bitches!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1125329 SDRII
SDRII's picture

$ orphaning: Issuing a global reserve currency gives countries some benefits in the short term, but this special status may harm their long-term economic development, China's central bank chief said in a statement on Friday. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), said that the priority in reforming the international monetary system was to ensure it was stable, benefiting all sides - China Daily

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:12 | 1125333 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

So this affects the economy in a bad way when exactly?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:12 | 1125343 Jeremy Roenick
Jeremy Roenick's picture

According to our dubious Sec of the Treasury, it's already priced in.  High oil ain't no thang.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:12 | 1125346 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

what economy? /sarc

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:25 | 1125399 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

You don't buy gas? Food?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:16 | 1125356 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

This is bullish for Puch Mopeds ( Im showing my age )

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:31 | 1125421 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

A friend ordered a 30" container full of 125cc motorcycles from Taiwan. He's been selling them at 150% profit and has almost sold out.  He just ordered 2 more 30" containers with a complete parts supply taking up 1/4 space of one of the containers. In my State no motorcycle endorsement is required for 150CC and smaller motorcycles so customers can immediately start riding them.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:36 | 1125440 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

A 30" container? Those are some small motorcycles! ;)

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:43 | 1125463 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Damn fit fingers... 30 foot containers......

On another note, I went an purchased one for myself.

http://www.alibaba.com/product-gs/349986252/MOTORCYCLE_FASTWIND_MONOSHOC...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:51 | 1125491 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

I've always liked the idea of the efficiency of motorcycles but the thought of wiping out or being crushed by a car have prevented any further thought of acquiring one.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:37 | 1125667 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Mopeds were HOT during 1977-80, Then they just vanished like Disco

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:14 | 1125359 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Yeah, f*** it, long brent to hedge the cost of filling a tank. I'll be fucked if im working 80 hrs a week to line the pockets of crooks with drills.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:21 | 1125383 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

that was one of the reasons i went long oil when it was in the 30s in March 2009 (though mostly because of Benocide's money printing) - I figured over my life I would consume a lot of oil, either directly or indirectly, 30s was as good a place as any to hedge my future consumption.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:43 | 1125462 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Nice one, i have spells of trading oil, i was long a few times down there, but i must admit its a regret i didnt hold on to any of them. On the whole, i have been caught short oil more time than i care to imagine, not this time though.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1125362 GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

WTI vs. S&P 500

Round 1.

Fight!!!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125363 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Oil usage is not important anymore for US economy. I would like to see index tracing buzz usage, hospitality, resorts, health care, all of them depend on it.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1125364 whatz that smell
whatz that smell's picture

praise be bernank! may he walk on oil forever!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:30 | 1125431 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

Preferably highly flammable oil.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125371 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"At this point we are clearly back to 2008 trendlines to see whether oil can keep up with stock"

Very much incorrect.  pull up a chart of the 1st 6 months of 2008.  stocks fell 13% while oil went from $100 to $147.

I expect a repeat of this.  Long oil and short equities here.

 

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:22 | 1125386 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Agree!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:27 | 1125412 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

But this time it's different. All those new jobs people have mean extra money for everything.

Buy stocks. My fav is price line. Going for 520 today!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:29 | 1125426 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

There wasn't QE in 2008.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:36 | 1125439 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

You're right.

But there was 130% leverage in the system.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:52 | 1125492 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Exactly and leverage in the system has gone down now hasn't it?  /sarc

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/everyone-chasing-levered-beta-nyse-reports-third-highest-net-margin-debt-amount-ever

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:17 | 1125372 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Looks like Kadafi has the upper hand in Libya, which will require more airstrikes or "boots on the ground".

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:19 | 1125377 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

This alone guarantees QE3 won't happen immediately, it puts too much pressure on Benocide, no one believes his bullshit that his money printing is having no effect on commodities.

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:27 | 1125380 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Oil is spiking because Obummer got his ass whooped by a tin pot dictator, who looks and smells like a camel, and whose only friend is Robert Mugabe.  Worst foreign adventure since the Bay of Pigs.  Now we will have two new narco/terrorist states on the Mediterranean. So long Israel.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:26 | 1125411 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

My lovely Mercedes :/  - but we can also use our sweet crude to get big explosions.

This  BP tanker exploded just two days ago in a suspicious way and the police is now investigating.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FljCtnak0JE

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:33 | 1125427 ivars
ivars's picture

It seems this feb 13 prediction of oil price  patterns I have been posting from time to time holds pretty well.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609

We could expect Brent higher then in previous peak, by 5-10 USD ( 125-130 USD).

Than it goes down in mid April just to shoot to new highs in approaching May (135-140 USD).

That should stop QE3 in its tracks-which will cause another temporary downturn in oil price.

All things are let loose in July 2011. Must be some supply disruption, serious this time.

 

 

 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:44 | 1125456 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Anecdotal observation - since 2008, not only have Americans not moved to more fuel efficient vehicles, they've gravitated to larger vehicles in some cases. Here in Texas, the redneck trend is bigger is better. We're talking F350 Super Duties w/lift kits and big mud tires. 4X4 king cabs are freaking everywhere. Bear in mind, 95% of these are urban cowboys, not work trucks. The short attention span, and backward priorities, of Americans never ceases to amaze me.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:53 | 1125490 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I've predicted the imminent return of the land yacht. It's coded in American genes to disregard the fundamentals of energy. It's all about Tomahawks and payoffs.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:00 | 1125512 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

They only drive them on Friday night.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:04 | 1125524 malek
malek's picture

Since 2008? I think you were about 4 years late with that observation.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:53 | 1125743 cabernet
cabernet's picture

It's very painful to spend 50 bucks  to fill your tank. People pay it while the economy is good. It also helps to have a working credit card. Should the economy double dip, oil will crash just as it did in 2008. Until then, it is up, up and away! Oil is a grand "E" ticket ride.

www.TheAngryGrapes.Com 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 16:39 | 1126514 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

If you can find a way of shipping for less than $3 a gallon to europe, heres to you, you're already a rich man.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:33 | 1125864 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

if all else fails it's ok: the Great Chairsatan can just print some more oil.

ok, perhaps oil.  But I bet the shtadlan Reb. Benwhore Shalom Bernookystein cannot print gold.  Or silver for that matter.  And it should be clear I refer to metal.  Not paper gold and/or silver.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:25 | 1125886 goldenrod
goldenrod's picture

It is easy to hedge for expensive oil. Buy Canadian oil & natural gas royalty trusts. They pay fat dividends and do really well when oil is expensive. In addition you are automatically protected from a falling US $. Take a look at: ERF, PWE, PBT, BTE, CVE.

This large Canadian NG producer pays nice dividends: ECA.  Also, consider CHK if you are long term bullish (I am) on NG.

Unfortunately as oil becomes more expensive people will burn more coal. Consider KOL, JRCC, MEE.

For hedging against expensive food consider RJA, POT, MOS.

My favorite precious metal stocks/ETFs are GDX, GDXJ, NEM, RGLD, GG, SLW and CDE. Not many people know that FCX also produces silver in addition to copper.

Good luck to everyone. I am not a financial adviser and this is just my opinion. Nothing I say should be considered investment advice.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:22 | 1126152 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Not bad advice... I have owned or own everything you have listed.

You have missed three keystones in any portfolio, esp. for a US investor

PBT, HGT, SBR

In all my years, these three might well be the best investments I have ever uncovered. Before plunging in, read up on the tax treatment... They work basically the same way as Exxon, you reap the money and don't pay much tax.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:28 | 1126183 goldenrod
goldenrod's picture

I did include PBT and it has exceeded my expectations.  Thanks for the tip on HGT and SBR.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:34 | 1126243 ILoveTheWorld
ILoveTheWorld's picture

Are they still trusts? I thought that changed on Jan 1.

Otherwise you're right, and add all the pipeline companies working there, especially the ones with extensions to the west, facilitating export to China. Some of them pay good dividends too.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:45 | 1126296 goldenrod
goldenrod's picture

Some of them (e.g. ERF) changed to corporations but they still pay good dividends.  Which pipeline companies are you talking about?

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