This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Brent Near All Time High When Priced In Euros
Many are quick to point out that oil still has a good $30 to go before passing the all time highs from 2008. True... If one lives in the US. Those on the other side of the pond, who care little about the USD, and who pay for everything in euros, and paid for everything in euros back in 2008, are not quite so fortunate. As the chart below shows, Brent priced in Euros is literally just off its all time previous highs of €92.88. At last check it was just over €86. Which means that the European economy is about to, literally, grind to a halt.
»
- 6807 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
That's ok, we'll just print some more.
Petrol in the UK is getting ridiculous, too. £1.359/l, and £1.429/l for diesel at my local when I checked this morning.
1.29/L CDN
2 weeks ago we had 1.63€ for regular gas in germany
Still not too bad in Barcelona, Euro 1.36/l for diesel.
Diesel was 1.48€ here (when regular was 1.63€)
Because they introduced the new gasoline E10 in germany, so the normal gas got way more expensive.
Good that i am not using a car anymore and just rely on the subway ;- )
Spain still charges the same for both, I expect the Spanish gov will change that soon and put a premium on diesel as per UK.
It makes no sense to have a premium on unleaded, would you buy a petrol car where the fuel costs more, fuel consumption is greater? Something is wrong in the fatherland.
OUCH! 8.76 US gal.
I have a 78 Ford Supercab PU that I have kept, gets 12.5 mpg. At thoses prices it will never run again.
Got a Q, can a guy 6'4" fit in one of thoes euro cars?
I'm 6'3'' and do fit quite comfortably in. And with 55mpg diesel, I don't really feel the price issue yet. I'm currently paying 1.33€/l in France.
Sure, I'm also 6'4'', and we drive a BMW Mini Cooper S. OK, only al legeless person could fit behind me, but the seat isn't even in it's most backward position.
I can fit with no problem in everything that comes from Volkswagen, BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Seat, Skoda and generally everything above the Microcar-Level (except Smart - this is also no problem)
Wow, $5.30 per gallon. Do you think that when this hits the United States that the dollar will also lose reserve currency status or Americans will simply loose it? Discuss please...
Forgot to do euro to dollar conversion.
WOW WOW!
.
Perfect. $10/gallon!
Great. $50/ounce!
I can only get an once for $700 or so.
Thank god for George Osbourne's 1 penny relief in fuel duty!
Surely the 20% VAT on the recent increases, let alone the increases themselves nullify that.
But you can't eat oil, wankerz!
What do you think the food down the supermarket is? We might as well be consuming raw crude.
+1000
I don't think many people realize that.
Oil, smoil...look at the utter lack of market volume today. Right there with X-mas, new year, and thanksgiving for no trading.
Computers 1, humans 0.
The market is now officially BB and BS's bitch!!!
Until we fix that which holds us back from reaching our true potential we will continue to make the same mistakes-- buy a car, buy gas, buy American, buy, buy, buy. The fed will continue to destroy anything that is not represented by the top1% of the world-- the king is greedier and greedier and will eat your babies soon.
We already reached our potential.
It's all downhill from here. The oil is gone and so is progress.
Need more news out of Europe, Tyler... I am convinced that Fukushima and Europe are the straws that bring this all down. Ahh, MENA too... Maybe even our debts...
I really enjoy repliers Sudden Debt, Azzanoth, EscapeKey, etc. who offer views from Europe.
ECB raise next week , BoE next month and then the Fed de facto tighten by virtue of no QE extension in June. Full house.
Elevator going down , not stopping till the basement. Anyone want me to hold the doors?
Alternatively we could just have 170 dollar oil , 7 dollar gasoline and no economy to speak of , but hey , Wall St would have the roads to themselves. Perhaps thats the plan.
If that happens, we're fucked.
Of course, if it goes up, we're fucked too.
Personally, I still reckon Bernanke, in a moment of absolute panic as the markets are melting down will hit the "print to infinity" button.
Well thats what makes a market. My own pittance is backing that he wont be allowed to blow up his own institution , the reserver currency and Wall st through the nuclear response and instead will create another oscillating decline in asset prices - namely the stock market - to chase asshats like Blackrock back into US govn debt and bring down the cost of borrowing and the cost of living. Just long enough mind you to take us to a lever where there is some political cover for more printing. With oil at 120 there is no cover....
Its 2008 all over again. The frequency of oscillation is also speeding up. Going to be a wild ride.
I hear you, but it's much, much worse than in 2008. At the moment, we're teetering on the edge of the bumpy plateau, and the only thing saving us from peak oil is reduced demand, which will come from one hell of a depression.
This won't be much fun. Get your cheap weekend holiday to Barcelona in now, before it's too late.
Demand destruction is the only thing that holds off peak oil. I believe the scumbags running this ponzi arent ready to head for the hills yet and have one more jerk on the leash in store , hence lower prices as they try to kick the can just a tiny bit further down the road.
A great depression is probably what we need - im an optimist though.
I guess the first to fail will be the passenger airlines. They can only consolidate and cost cut so much before people simply stop flying. The industry is doomed.
personally i would prefer a 2008 event in which everything drops (stocks, PMs). then load up one last time and go all in on PMs...
[...then load up one last time and go all in on PMs...]---unky
Unky, while I appreciate your appetite for risk, IMO you are playing with fire. Yes, I too expect a pull-back on PMs following a downturn in the stock market, but the risk reward is not worth playing the game.
Too many unknowns during the next down turn. Consider:
--Will my credit card receive authorization for online PM purchases?
--Will extended banking holidays threaten PM purchase orders?
--Will US govt devalue our currency over night, effectively making your purchases prohibitively expensive compared to PM prices today?
--Will PM dealers gouge buyers with unreasonable fees?
--Will PMs be sold out and "back ordered" indefinitely?
--Will the PM mines be nationalized and restrictions placed on amounts of bullion private buyers may purchase from dealers?
--Will the US Mint halt all sales of PM bullion?
--Will gov't add exorbitant taxes on all PM sales?
--Will USPS lawfully ship PMs?
--Will FedEx or UPS still be in business?
Etc., etc., etc. See what I mean?
If you are not "all in" today, you may "all out" tomorrow.
gasoline prices in europe (obviously in euro/ltr) are allready above the peaks of 2008. Diesel not yet but approaching fast
Tyler,
great observation. Recall my numerous calls that it was time to start fading when Brent hit ~$125, well, it appears that the time is nigh.. Definatly time to sell calls....
Statoil has done a moon-shot for a "major"...The chart for PSTR is also of note....
Their discovery was only around 500m barrels, nowhere near supergiant territory, and they rally as if the oil crisis has been resolved.
Sheer insanity.
Not when you are in STO at ~$20... :)
There is a seminal article on Refining over at the Drum from last week. I strongly suggest anyone interested in oil to check it off. It is by Carnot and it is deep.
F-meister,
appreciate the sanity of your comments about market choking on $120 oil...but that assumes a sanity on the downside that has been completely overriden by liquidity and likely direct intervention on the upside. Hate to say it but appears there was a clear interventionist shift from a little push or shove here and there from TPPT to an outright policy of intervention. When Big O said it was a good time to buy stocks in March '09, he knew what he was talking about.
Now, it doesn't have to be an all or nothing Fed policy. They likely can find middle ground options to run some TOMO's while simultaneously pumping elsewehere to offset and overcome the TOMO's. I guess I just don't believe sanity or reality will intervene until TPTB want it to or they forcibly lose their grip on power.
All conjecture and opinion but my two cents.
Yes, I hemmed and hawed about what to do when oil rockets like it has. I traded the energy patch up to the '08 peak and played it well, not perfect. I left alot of money on the table. I did reload on the dip... As I see it selling out of the money 6-9 month calls on equities is one way to hedge along with buying and holding cash flows in the O&G sector
My apprehension has to do with when the Fed "loses it". I am fairly convinced that QE3 will be on the sly, the Fed can only be sucessful in monetizing when oil is weak.. An in your face QE sends oil to $160 with the Euro at 1.50 and we agree that world economy collapses. Also at play is the oil-backed dollar, that will only change at gun-point. The US gold reserves, assuming they even exist as claimed, covers 1 year of imports.
My take is that The Fed/Treasury is entering it's death spiral, but the US military will be dominant for another few years. Hedge accordingly....
You reckon the PDs will enter a game of Repo-that-treasury with the Fed, in order to keep the yields down?
In which case, we essentially have entered John Law territory.
Death Spiral is John Law for intents and purposes....Yes, I think we are there....
Definitely hedging accordingly.
Only point I'd make is that I sort of anticipate a false flag, terrorist, or like human crisis that will shift focus from "long term stable policies" (haha) to short term revenge or fear based policies (all terribly effectively allowing massive inflation under the premise of national security). Beyond that, hard to see what, if any, tricks are left up the sleeves of those at the control panel.
Seems wild but given the lose / lose premise of "to print (stagflation or hyperinflation) / not to print (deflation / depression)", I really can't see beyond 1 to 3yrs maximum now of this playing out further w/out severe repercussions...with no idea of when something snaps how it plays out and what the new reality becomes.
Very nicely stated....
F-guy, as you know I am profoundly pessimistic in how I see the world proceed with the upramp in price. The key phrase is:
It Can't Be Tolerated.
The destruction of the future of young people will be perceived in the next crash, as those few early 20's workers realize their bosses are not going to retire and the company isn't going to grow. There will be no promotions.
Scarcity then starts to trump price. Period. Full stop. It's not about price. It's about . . . fuel. The engine(s) won't be able to run.
The military solution will cease to be securing of supply. It will very wisely transition to destruction of competing demand. 80% of China's populaiton lives within 40 miles of its east coast and the US SLBM force have enough warheads to . . . take advantage of that.
There simply won't be any choice. "Fair sharing" will never work. No one will accept anyone's definition of "fair" that costs them GDP.
I don't disagree with you, but I do not like to argue from that perspective. I always have hope....you need it to survive.
F-meister, have read Joules Burn, Global Refining Capacity on TOD.
Would highly recommend Headingout's series Tech-Talk-Oil Producers (series of articles broken down into output production).
This is a link to one of them
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7582
Been there....done that... But yes, they are cracker jack articles....
Joules posted the article, but it is by Carnot... It is almost more that you ever thought people knew about refining...
It's just freaking nuts!
I'm paying almost 500 euro's a month on fuel JUST TO GO TO WORK!!
Soon it will be cheaper if I buy myself a rickshaw and a chinese guy to go to work... just imagine... feeding costs, a sleeping basked for the guy so he can sleep in my garage.... costs costs costs....
and before you know it, the kids will also want one... I'LL NEED A BIGGER GARAGE!!
Soon chinese will be making more than you in gold-backed yuan and they will hire you to take TOEFL tests and write letters of recommendation so they can attend Ivy League and Cambridge...
On the other hand, some people could receive a lesson in structural unemployment like is being meted out in the USA right now.
the yuan is big bullshit, did u ever try to find someone to sell your yuans too? nobody wants them,thats my experience
If you wanted to pay your groceries at walmart with gold or silver, and the cashier refused your bullion....does it mean gold and silver are "big bullshit"?
So what can you do when the ponzi is bursting out of it's seams?????
The currency markets in themselves is total and complete madness.
Most of the traders I know are shaking their heads, like bobble head dolls. Possible brain damage, is better than expected.
Here is another important perspective. Oil priced in gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC:$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p86650617941
If this was flat you might assume QE was causing the oil price increase. The fact that it is rising suggests to me that oil demand exceeds supply.
Very nice... I hope tmosely and his QE inspired buddies try to spin this. If this is a not a serious tell, then WTF is??
Gold has gone sideways since Nov , whilst stocks have continued to rally inline with oil. I hear you on peak oil but do not dismiss the impact money printing is having on nominal commodity prices. Your chart doesnt go back far enough for a clearer picture. And look at how oil , then stocks and then gold sold off in 2008 - the former from 145 to 35 , whilst the latter only had a 20% peak to trough correction , as stocks halved.
Im sure oil will find a higher low but once the next leg of this recession takes hold , youll see some incredible margin selling in oil as the liner thinkers on Wall St project falling demand for as far as they can see (all of a year or so basically)
All it takes is for the Fed to decide when commodities - and China - need a bitch slap , and it will happen.
I fully understand the finite supply of oil but QE (ergo "economic expansion") is a major major catalyst for its price. No QE. No economic expansion. And watch as Bill Gross realizes his long EM bet v short UST blows his face off. 10 yr back to 2% as the World recoils in horror at the Greatest Depression. Hey , i never liked the crowded trade....
Thanks for adding some sophisticated color to my post.
Are you saying that QE has 2 effects:
1) Dillution of real assets to paper assets (ie inflation).
2) Economic expansion which implies higher demand which drives price higher.
And that both effects apply to oil but only the first applies to gold. Thus we expect QE to drive oil up faster than gold ???
I think QE is doing 2 things :
1) nominally pricing finite assets higher due to simple dilution of said paper currency and
2) allowing emerging markets to overheat - that is where the bulk of the incremental demand for oil and the commodity complex is coming from that will expedite the tipping point.
Gold started its power money move in 1999/2000 and wont stop. I dont know how oil and gold will relate exactly but i suspect they will ebb and flow : through periods of excess liquidity i think oil outperforms for the aforementioned reasons even though QE is also bullish for gold but during periods of de facto tightening i see gold outperforming and oil entering a volatility period that will make it very difficult to guage demand/supply in the short/medium term.
I dont think gold will go much lower nominally even if there is an end to QE : gold really will become a power play and thrive in either outcome , possibly benefitting more from a deflationary event. Essentially gold will be left as a store of wealth whilst everything else either melts up and then crashes or just plain melts.
Can i see oil at 150 , 200? Yes. Absolutely. But i can equally see gold at 2, 3 , 4k (and if im wrong , then i can easily see the Dow below 5k and there is no way gold falls >65% from here)
edit: in essence im in agreement to your 2 pronged statement! although i dont believe we have a self sustaining recovery ergo organic growth - its purely down to the fed and the epson in the basement which is the reason JPM et al are going easy on hammer fucking gold now.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
I am 50/50 PM/$CDN cash and was contemplating decreasing PM a little in anticipation of a dip due to temporary QE stop, then plan to buy more PM since we all know QE will have to resume. But now I am thinking that is getting too fancy and requires accurate timing. Think I will stay 50/50.
Suggest you look at the weekly chart before drawing any conclusions about the end of the oil age.
Who said "End of Oil Age", after all the world is producing more oil now than in history?
If anything the weekly chart is an even larger tell....Relative to your gold (which I also am highly exposed to), oil outperformed gold into '08.... demand dropped, oil overshot to the downside and we are back when supply constraints are driving up oil faster than gold...We will overshoot, economy goes splat....
The trick is to own both gold and oil and rebalance on the relative ratio of the two....
http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex3.htm
Gold/oil ratio is only slightly below average at about 13.3 vs long term average around 15.
The short term oil/gold chart can tell you some things, but if you want to read deeper, you need a longer timeline. Inferring that peak oil is here from a short term chart, as the above poster was trying to do, is disingenuous.
I would never claim peak oil based on that chart... the chart is completely consistent with it though... There is more than enough evidence from elsewhere to claim we are on the plateau with only one way to go....
...like IEA's latest oil market report?
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
Or IEA's 2006 conventional peak admission?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Yeah, obscure shit like that.... LOL
Or as Trav desribes it:
"The horseman riding on the wave crest of the Hades of Peak Oil"
aka The Export Land Model
I am sure your strategy is correct however I expect volatility in oil to be too extreme for amateurs to play. Gold volatility is also likely to be high but no where near as gut wrenching as oil.
Yes, I also have hedged equity positions in the oil patch...
I bought the most efficient little car I could find on a ZIRP credit card last year. I'm getting 72 (UK) MPG out of the little fella.
If I hold my foot to the floor for a minute or two it might touch 100 MPH depending on the gradient of the road but that aint great for fuel economy.
I guess now it's costing me the same to run as my old petrol focus did before this peak oil, FED bubble, BRIC demand, cluster-flock occurred!
You would literally be laughed at for driving this car in the US.
"You would literally be laughed at for driving this car in the US."
Therein lies part of the problem.
I'll wouldn't be seen dead in that car, house, clothes, etc is the US mentality which got us into this mess.
Add "boobs" to that list.
Follows nicely the graph prediction I made on february 6th based on typical long term patterns of oil price reaction to sharp shocks.
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0#p30486
So this time it will be recession in UK, Japan, Europe ( except Germany) and then USA? First recession exported, then it comes back. Anyway, q1 2012 in the USA will be recessional, with no big inflation , and fall in PM prices in q2 2011 until someone realizes that gold standard might become a real issue. Then ( 2013?) PM prices will shoot up like never before.
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...
And of course stock prices , DJIA will notice the coming recession and problems to enjoy QE3 due to inflation worries:
http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a...
Private Hudson: "We're on an express elevetor to Hell... Goin' DOWN!"
We're in the pipe, 5 by 5.
Hang on...we're in for some chop...
1.91chf/L (1.45Euro/L) in Switzerland today
Grind to a halt?? Heck, that's good news! More money pumping! BTFD!
<sarc>
"They" can never be satisfied. Making cash hand over fist in this market is not enough. They know that the PIIGS cannot survive this oil price, and they still drive it higher in order to crash the market. But why when there is still so much money to be made? It's because they have so much money and it's so easy for themto make more, that it has become boring. They want something that "they just aren't making any more of", really cool real estate. Castles, casinos, carribean islands, stuff that has been tied up in family estates for generations and that money can't buy..for now. Crash the system and see who will have to sell real estate that no one ever should have needed to liquidate.
The recovery is too strong for it to be bothered by $4.00/gal gas.
I believe in Tim and Ben.
BTFD
Had my first $70 fill up in a couple of years on the weekend @$3.75/g
+1... $70 @ $4.29/gallon for me. California FTL.
We may be focusing on the wrong area of the Middle East. Rumors Saudi Arabia has hidden agreement to effectively control all security and financials in Bahrain including country security. Seriously bending Iran's nose out of joint.
Oil could easily go nuts and give a whole new set of problems if true.
http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=474
'The Hydrogen Highway in Scandinavia will run from Norway to Germany via Jutland. As the first stage of the project, Denmark opened six hydrogen tank stations on 24 September 2008.'
http://www.roadtraffic-technology.com/projects/hydrogenhighway/
Doesn't matter. Just print more paper.
As long as people trade oil for paper, it is all good.
Very succint.... and frighteningly reflective of the truth....
No worries - Europeans can fly to the Cushing, Oklahoma (PADD2) for practically nothing & bring buckets as we are DROWNING in CRUDE OIL - gee it is a good thing all the long specs on Wall Street are obsessed with 'Forward Supply Disruption' because Libya provides an incredible 2% of world oil supplies...oooo do not forget, Yemen, or Bahrain, or all those other Middle East countries who supply the world with oil - what a bunch of nonsense - STOP BERNANKE PRINTING FIAT & watch CRUDE collapse, just like stock & soft commodities - Bernanke is a criminal
Nope... nice try...
Libya is 4% of world exports... The WTI-Brent spread seems to have eluded you...
If the Bernanke stops monetizing, there will be a deflationary collapse and oil will only follow all else...
Whats Ireland doing in response? their strategy to essentially undermine future bailouts looks like a good start to avoiding future collapse...and all the europeans driving the hybrid cars compared to our SUVs in America.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com
Undulating plateau, bitchez!
Isn't that a cock-tease in Ulan Bator???
Depressions eventually rectify the malinvestments made. People become wiser as the flawed markets, based upon greed and need exercise discipline.
Depressions eventually rectify the malinvestments made. People become wiser as the flawed markets, based upon greed and need exercise discipline.
This is scary for consumers...while we think it's so bad, Europeans are almost paying twice as much. Things are going to start getting much worse here, I wonder what people are going to say once the average is over $5 a gallon.
www.forecastfortomorrow.com