Brent Passes $110

Tyler Durden's picture

A $10 move in a week is just what the doctor ordered to destroy the last trace of surreality in the whole "economic recovery" story. At this rate we will take out all time high crude prices by mid March. As we have been saying since December, a rapid move in oil will undo years of carefully planned propaganda and money printing. Yet the weakness that "nobody could have possibly predicted" is just as we had forecast: global and US weakness in late February/March, market swoons in March/April (as per DeMark's repeat appearance), Fed releases early indications of QE3 in May. In the meantime, we also get a war as a bonus to boost the US military-defense industrial complex. Pretty much a rerun of the first great depression to the dot.

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tmosley's picture

Weird correlation.  Silver is also up 10% over the same time period.

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Ah, the sweet smell of irony. Ben totally completes the circle of life here didn't he?



(Okay, I could have said something more dirty than circle of life)

MarketTruth's picture

A circle? Ben? Oh, you mean Ben Shalom Bukkake.

Calculated_Risk's picture

"completes the circle of the toilet bowl"


tmosley's picture

Ok, I looked back, and there's not really that much of a correlation.  Silver has clearly been kicking oil's butt.  At least, WTI's butt.  Can't seem to get Brent to display on stockcharts.$silver:$wtic


Xibalba's picture

Silver and Gold! 

MsCreant's picture

Gold looking interesting too.

jus_lite_reading's picture

Dr. Deficit is working overtime these days. The destruction of the entire financial system could occur from a single natural disaster. That is how close we are.

SpeakerFTD's picture

Sweet.  I await Lazlo Birinyi's forecast on Brent.  

iDealMeat's picture

OT:  Guess who's mayor of Chicago....  




sudzee's picture

Gov't may have to issue oil stamps to augment food stamps.  

Rainman's picture

GAPS and a nice ring to it.

RobotTrader's picture

I'm gonna be screwed this summer....

I should have bought double the shares in UGA, but I waffled and missed out.


Internet Tough Guy's picture

A clueless classic from the master trader himself:

Crude Oil might have topped out tonight
RobotTrader - Mon, Feb 21, 2011 - 09:18 PM

Nice reversal, looks like crashing equity markets are now factoring plummeting demand.

tmosley's picture

Shoulda got a real job.  Maybe then you wouldn't have bankrupted yourself six times in the last five years.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Always buy out of money crude calls for summer driving season... guaranteed to make you some bucks some of the time.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

as mentioned many times the old catfish mouth doesn't even take his own advice so why should anybody else. meanwhile, as the catfish mouth would say, oil, gold and silver are rising quite nicely, the opposite of what the catfish mouth said would happen.

btw: are we fighting the fed city hall today trying to pick a top, as you mentioned yesterday? or has that codicil been rescinded for today, or at least until the wind changes?

ps: the old scroomer, as you call him, gentleman jim sinclair sends his regards.

btw: i notice that egypt is still on the front pages a month after the fortnight you said it would gone. any other predictions i can fade today?

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Robot! Say it isn't so! You know Summer is all Hamptons, all the time. How will we ever BBQ without you!


Hookers in the city during the summer is so 1990.

HedgeFundLIVE's picture

DBO- an oil ETF that has been on a roll, has low correlation to an unpredictable market = good for hedging purposes. thoughts?:

slackrabbit's picture

Is it a bird?

Is it a plane?

No, its fleet of black swans, and the f***ers are about to s**t all over us!


Aquiloaster's picture

I'm not sure I would necessarily call it a black swan (an unexpected extreme outlier that, in all, plays a larger role than regular occurances). If Tyler predicted it, I think that from the point of view of ZHers, it cannot be. Every major event is not a black swan.

UninterestedObserver's picture

? isn't that the definition of a black swan - major market moving event that wasn't predicted

Aquiloaster's picture

My point with that comment was the Tyler predicted it. Therefore not a black swan. If President Obama asked for a task force to assess stability in the middle east, he was not surprised either. In addition, bloggers such as Charles Hugh Smith, James Kunslter etc. also stated in late December/early January that the middle east was going to descend into violence which would destablize the recovery. The long and short of my comment is that enough people saw this coming to consider it predictable.

tmosley's picture

Then we shall count our silver in the shade!

Zero Debt's picture

Now if there's a gold:oil ratio and a gold:silver ratio, isn't there a oil:silver ratio?

Temporalist's picture

Gold just shot straight up. 

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Gad-off-ee... should I stay or should I go... The Clash

snowball777's picture

As soon as the shareef was
Chauffeured outta there
The jet pilots tuned to
The cockpit radio blare

As soon as the shareef was
Outta their hair
The jet pilots wailed

Dick Darlington's picture

Tyler, You forgot one thing. JCT hiking rates just before the wheels come off.

Sutton's picture

George Melloan in WSJ op-ed blames Ben B for the turmoil in the  Islamshittistans .

Tyler was way ahead.

earnyermoney's picture

Actually, let's give credit where credit is due. Bruce K. called this a month ago.

Tyler Durden's picture

Our first note that Bernanke will be responsible for global genocide in October 2010 was not met too favorably.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I recall that one... I knew he would print, what I did not know, and found very had to believe when others were saying it, was just how much Ben would print.

I suppose that I thought his 'helicopter speech' was simply more jawboning. Boy, was I wrong about that one!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Altogether way too glib a presumption that Bernanke is the cause of oil price rise.

Yes, it is red meat to the folks that generate click revenue here, but reality is rather more important than that.

North Sea oil production (Brent) has been in freefall for a decade now.

tmosley's picture

Blah blah blah.  Just keep ignoring the facts.

If oil supply were the issue, oil would have lead everything else up in price.  It hasn't, so shut up with the peak oil crap.  We can cross that bridge if we make it that far.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Oil is settled almost exclusively in dollars and now there are lots more dollars available for settlement/ shorthand is 'too much slosh in the system'.

Who is to be faulted for the slosh?

Granted, Brent is in decline, Cantarell is in decline, Venesuela is probably in decline except the asphalt reserves...and, BP is a disaster waiting for another opportunity, and some others.

I was a regular at 'The Oil Drum' when crude shot up to ~ $147... On that board everyone was screaming 'this is it!, it's Peak Oil, and the price is only going up from here!' I said 'bs, the Persian Gulf is full of tankers loaded with Iranian Crude and there is NO market to sell to.' SA was also saying they were making more crude available than the market wanted to buy. Naturally I was booed. I shorted oil and made a tidy sum. When it hit $121 on the way down I cashed out my winnings. I gave a blow by blow account to the Oil Drum of what I was doing, and why. I received another round of boos. I laughed all the way to my gold dealer.

So, what is to be learned from of all this... Not every run up in any commodity is driven by shortage. Occasionally there is too much slosh looking for higher returns and when ROI is not available in the normal markets lots of money piles into commodities. The fact that shortages do exist, some due to potential shut in production, weather, etc, isn't helping either.

Maybe we are seeing the perfect storm. No way I am short crude now!


CrashisOptimistic's picture


You do not understand the problem.  This is not about trading.  Price is not informative about this matter when so much China supply is in non public contracts.

The New Normal is precisely that.  No past lessons were lessons.  There is no history to learn from because this world never existed before.

topcallingtroll's picture


The triple short etf.

Come on Ghadafi....stay in the game....