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Brent Plunges On Rumor Mubarak To Resign, Takes Entire Commodity Complex With It
The latest rumor rocking the commodity space is that Hank "M.A.D" Mubarak will resign. We are not sure where this rumor has originated from but it is wreaking havoc on the oil complex, and by sympathy, on all commodities, and risk assets as well. That is coincided with the end of a POMO that had a 4 S/A ratio only confirms the weakness in stocks. On the other hand, the snapback rally once this wave of optimism dies down could be vicious. Keep an eye on Reuters for confirmation of any Mubarak news.
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Dollar
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/02/dollar_04.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
I'm waiting for an explanation of exactly how and why a Mubarak resignation makes the Middle East more stable and peaceful and, consequently, oil more plentiful...
Um, because the price was artificially high because of speculation?
sudden and unexpected price drop on no news = shakeout. i would bet 10 bucks oil ends UP on the day..
how do i knwo this?
cnbc now parading the morons and flashing headlines referring to commodity bubbles
I concur... Ben gave the all-clear yesterday and PMs never broke through support.
The price was artificially speculated too high by $2?
If you look at the recent roll data, the $2 sounds about right....
I know who's behind this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ici3LCG9kGc&feature=related
Yeah, that's the ticket!
Just adding the Liberal "oil price speculation conspiracy" perspective. I was hoping that someone would back my BS up with facts, but that never happened. I'm pissed because I just took delivery of almost 200 gallons of fuel oil.
Obviously, you walked into the wrong warehouse and grabbed 200 gallons of Kool-Aid.
Was the guy at the front desk fat and red (like Limbaugh after an hour in the sun), and asked "Grape or Cherry"?
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/07/31/kool_aid_2.gif
You might try looking under the slimy rocks and in the cesspools all those political snakes and backstabbers live, work and play. Even then you won't get an explanation that makes any sense. But you will get one, of that I am certain.
I just went whole hog into oil last week, and I'm staying there for a while. This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.
Turd, someone is an arse, for junking a simple question/statement.
I am with you, I see a JDAM coming.
interest rates.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX+Basic+Chart&t=5d
+ 4.73% for 30 years
+ 4.73% for 30 years
+ 4.73% for 30 years
What kind of rate can I get for 30 years I wonder...
I understand their logic now. If the muslim brotherhood comes to power, they will take the middle east back to the dark ages. Think of how much less oil they will consume.... That will chop demand down significantly. Thus, oil plunges.
Oh wait... isn't this bullish oil?
17.3+ % U-6 unemployed people don't drive to work everyday, and don't tool around as much shopping for trinkets and bobbles.
Is that bobbleheads or baubles? ;)
Probably means kebobbles.
Yes, and hookers too.
I'm already tired of this "Muslim Brotherhood" agitprop bs--if you value democracy, you have to let the chips fall where they may. It can't be any worse than Mubarak the thief and his family net work in the $40Billion range. And the US should not be able to just step in and replace one figurehead with another one because there's nothing even remotely democratic about that, either.
Well, it depends on whether you want the government of the United States to defend and promote the interests of the people of the United States, or you want it to defer in all foreign matters to other sovereign nations with respect to the internal affairs of those sovereign nations. The really hard part is where the internal affairs of sovereign nations adversely impact the best interests of the people of the United States (e.g., the Soviet Union's seizure of Eastern Europe in the settlement of WWII's "spoils").
Which leads, naturally, to asking you about this quote: "It can't be any worse than Mubarak the thief and his family net work in the $40Billion range." Do you honestly believe this? It can't be worse than that? Wow, what part of the history of tyranny have you missed? The people who are now dancing to music in the square would, under some alternatives to Mubarek, be shot for doing so. Try telling the people of North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, Pol Pot's Cambodia, the recent unpleasantries in Rwanda, or Mao's Cultural Revolution that Egypt Version 2010 was the worst tyranny ever.
be sure to let us know if that ever happens, RipVanWinkle.
Well put, grown-up response.
so we can all go out and play in the snow now/? Daddy got it all taken care of??
Great balls of fire. Hope ya got your breath back. Milsesones
We already have a Muslim brother in the hood in the wh.
Come on Egypt! Give our sheeple precedent and motive to oust our 2nd rate politicians so we may retake our nation.
Show Joe Sixpack that Team-O can be brought down and the Reps in Congress and House are not the shit we need.
look what Joe Sixpack cares about... those things will never be taken away but everything else will if not already
aero,
Well, you see it doesn't matter...as these people cant spell Democracy, much less be governed by one.
We're looking at another potential Caliphate.
OOOOPsssssssss, there goes de neighborhood!
Apparently, Muslim oil don't work too good.
Which is too bad, since we could just leave the entire Middle East to them and cut out both the military/foreign aid expenses and various costs of The War on Terror, since they would no longer have anything to hate us about (al Qaeda has been quite clear on this point, if you can't see it intuitively.)
They could all go Muslim if they like. Just like Iran, which remains a potent producer and exporter of oil.
Yeah, too bad we just couldn't count on good oil if they were all Muslims.
Sometimes I wonder just whom it benefits to keep things the financially insane and morally Machiavellian way they are.
I agree we should get out of the ME and let them have the leaders they deserve. That said, I don't think we in the West will feel too complacent if any ME extremist state i.e. Iran, gets long range missles to go along with nukes. The risk of a dirty bomb is already apparent. If Khomeni had had nuclear weapons he would have blackmailed the west bigtime if not outright used them.
My only hope is that the Sunnis and Shias kill each other before they get around to us.
As I understand it, the Muslims just want us the hell out of the Middle East. Their world. Ask yourself: What would really happen if we really did--radical as it seems--just pull out all extensions of American government beyond what we have in, say, Italy.
Seems to me we still get our oil and save a world of wasted money and criminal "mistakes" like Iraq.
Since the ME is apparently their world, when do all the muslims get out of our world; the west?
Actually...for starters they want ALL of North Africa...Spain, and part of France...and almost to Italy going around the Med the other way. All the lands they had conquered before the Crusades took it back. Then they want the rest...
How do YOU feel about Islamic law? I've been to Saudi Arabia and I do NOT want to live under Islam...no way!
That reeks of irrational fear. Let the EU deal with Spain and France (as if the Muslim Menace is waiting just off shore.)
Chicken Little??
the crusades did not reclaim the parts of europe invaded by the muslims. They were kicked out of spain in 1492 and the Ottomans were finally defeated at Vienna centuries after that.
Irrespective of this, part of the muslim narrative is that they have claim to all lands that any muslim ever walked in
"Irrespective of this, part of the muslim narrative is that they have claim to all lands that any muslim ever walked in"
Really? Did you read this in the Koran?
When are some of you going the WTF up.
Their goal is Dominate the entire world,under Sharia Law.
You have 2 choice under that LAW.
Convert, and become a second class citizen(if your not muslim by birth), or they murder you in the name of Allah.
Simple.
They have France by the yang, and the U.K., its over for them now.In 10-15yrs they will be the majority.
Something that concerns me even more, is we seem to be caving in to most all their demands.They do not assimilate, live in mixed communities, and consider us dogs.
Now,whats not to like with that plan?.
"Their goal is Dominate the entire world,under Sharia Law."
Do you get paid to spread agitprop?
"Actually...for starters they want ALL of North Africa...Spain, and part of France"
You picked a bad week to stop sniffing glue.
If you were Iran, why wouldn't you pursue a bomb or long range missiles...preferably of the nuke variety?
Remember the old saw that "democracies never fight each other"? It is more correct to say nuclear nation states don't fight each other. MAD works, as another poster (I think it was tmosely) said the other day.
No nation benefits from the detonation of a dirty bomb, but especially a non-nuclear nation. It is literally shooting yourself in the foot.
A gov't, on the other hand, has a lot to gain from false flag ops. Gov't would be my first suspect if a dirty bomb is ever detonated.
all this talk of Iran nukes.. who the hell are they going to nuke? maybe Tel Aviv.. but not all that other crap holy land.. even though they really know the only holy land is land with oil under it
MAD is the only thing that works once nukes are on the table. It introduces a new kind of war: you win (if you won) but you don't get anything for it. The country you destroy is uninhabitable for a very, very long time.
Of course, there's that "mutual" part, too.
Too bad they're so crazy over there.
Last thing I heard, they were all screaming for democracy.
Over 1,000 nukes detonated in the world since 1944, admittedly most underground. That said, it depends on the number of weapons and delivery systems MAD is for roughly equal actors not Pakistan vs US.
True, the calculus is different for Goliath v. David. Lemme see, how does that work?
They can't even think about it. So we faced off an equal in the USSR and we have a nuclear punk in Pakistan.
Yeah, I know, the Muslim terror. Which brings me back to us leaving them all alone. They have nothing to gain from detroying us then, even if it could be done unilaterally. We're the world's biggest oil consumer.
All this war-brained hysteria seems to lack simple rationality.
Your thinking logically, they do not, they have a Mission.
They intend to complete it.
Your argument seems to be that they are, in fact, the dogs.
I think you're lost in the 15the century. It was a scary place.
Perhaps we should stop treating them like dogs and supporting the tyrants who oppress them. If they had decent lives in their native countries, perhaps they might prefer to live there? If the Europeans want to stop them from immigrating, they can clamp off their borders and deal with whatever problems they have with the people they imported as cheap labor in recent years.
This whole line of "reasoning" sounds strangely similar to what you hear about Mexicans here.
Even the biggest tin pot dictator wants to survive. Any clown leader stupid enough to drop a nuclear bomb on the US would simply be annhilated.
The source of dirty bombs can be traced via forensics so the angle of they will smuggle a dirty bomb into a city or harbor is a no go either and ends up with the same outcome as above basically getting yourself wiped of the map.
Their reason for wanting nukes is basically to keep other guys off their turf and because they could hurt you bad it's not worth your while getting boots on the ground. Think North Korea.
For those not getting what they need from the USA MSM ministry of information;
Al Jazeera English: Live Stream
http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
Ummmm because a power vacuum is bullish for oil supply??
Profit taking by the hedge fund weenies. Will probably be short lived.
If he resigns it encourages the people of other countries in the region to take to the streets to oust their tin-pot corrupt scum leaders too.
Fun in the middle-east hasn't finished yet.
BTFD.
FTBD - F' the Benny Dips
Did Genocidal Ben say price of oil was due to demand and recovery?
My oh, my, oil going down because of speculators closing out? Never...
Hosni "Show me the Money" Mubarak to resign and Muslim Brotherhood to take over is bearish for oil? Strange times.
Who is claiming the MB is taking over?
Strango flash crash in USD/Yen.
Funny how the rumor about no physical gold left in the Comex warehouse never works.
+ 1
the ME going to blow up, the nazis coming to power in Egypt, and the oil, gold going down wow
no word of any such thing on Al Jazeera.
i think AJ is down.
FORT 'Tungsten' KNOX
This shouldn't surprise anyone in lieu of last night's story about the US negotiating a transition today. Should have been quite expected actually.
What can we expect for tomorrow Harry?
Snake oil!
That's the future right there.
Apparently we can expect for Harry to know how expected everything is after the fact.
And I expected the expected.
Is the US negotiating with the people in Tahrir square? I think Egyptians have had enough of western puppets for now, so whatever Obumble is negotiating is pretty meaningless.
This situation is not going to end well.
The only thing that should be expected is that people will state that an event should have been expected after the event occurred.
Don't bother with him...he dosen't understand that its possible to have a disconnect between reality and the rising price of Apple and its suppliers.
Its one thing to speculate for higher prices on the back of irrational confidence, but another to distort your view of reality to make the speculative froth justified.
Don't bother with him...he dosen't understand that its possible to have a disconnect between reality and the rising price of Apple and its suppliers.
Actually, if you were listening to me and watching AAPL you would not be so "stunned" by the improving economy. Apple just sold out all Verizon iPhones in 17 hours. As I've been saying since summer, if Apple is selling expensive gadgets in enormous numbers worldwide, that is a pretty damn good indicator of where the economy. Again, just open your eyes and see that people are spending money. They have been and will continue. The clouds have parted.
Also, if you were listening to me last week and this week, you would have realized that the UE rate would fall to around 9%, as I said it would based upon factual data points.
Same crap, different post. Someone give this guy a job working for Barack.. He'd make a "great" spokesman for the economy..
spend that borrowed moniez.
barack, mubarak, broke.
Would "make" hell thats Gibbs masquerading as a toilet accessories salesman. Gibbs is leaving WH and is winding down his duties which is why HW's posts are increasing in frequency and length..
STFU, Hamy. You don't even sound like Harry. Leave Harry alone.
I'm bullish on Obamabaggers for Alinsky getting internet jobs.
Sadly, the market for Mubarak urinal cakes has seen a hot but rapidly draining interest.
'In lieu of the story' Harry? 'In lieu of' means the story never happened, is missing and was replaced by something else, you moron. If you order Chicken cordon bleu and the waitress informs you theyre all out, she'll bring you something else in lieu of the cordon bleu. Just stick to the urinal cakes to $39 per nite hotel chains Harry.
Spit coffee. Thanks.
hahahaha..........that's right Harry.......just STFU
The situation is so unstable any rumor is like "crying fire in a theater"... except we know the market theater *is* on fire and falling apart but the audience is hypnotized (QE'd) and can't see or smell it.
I picture it as part of The Scythe, a short story by Ray Bradbury... they are just waiting, somebody has to do the job.
I always thought it was more like Brave New World.
Soma anyone? Just turn on your TV.
I agree that BNW is a good allegory (mirror?) for the broad masses.
But I was thinking The Scythe as an allegory for the capital markets. Bernanke has to stop trying to save what has expired. He has to bare the scythe and let the bad banks, mortgage and bad investments "rest".
It is in "The October Country", should be about $10 in any bookstore on the way home. Good read for the weekend.
I'm waiting for all that group sex.... (read the book)
Interactive Map of Protests in Africa and the Middle East
http://www.reuters.com/article/interactive/idUSTRE7103I020110201?view=la...
The Fire Next Time.
never fails. rumor right on clue when the fed is getting pounded.
Resign and put his crony in place?
TD: Either that or the commodoty space finally got around to reading your employment numbers analyses...
If this is true, Gold will be below $1300 on Monday.
The exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss. It is similar to rounding up maximum sheep before shutting the doors of the slaughter house.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
ohhh NOOOO....no bazooka for Mubarak? and stupid me thought Hosni was TBTF...yeah well...c'est la vie...
Rumor is Hosni will hand over power to Vlad Putin..
Don't worry just buy some CmgUaNflxTzoo
How much of Egypt's wealth will he be allowed to abscond with?
I suspect you should be asking "How much of Egypt's wealth did he abscond with." The wealth is stashed all over the globe already.
From Bloomberg TV
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66459174/
Well time for the elite to block Suez to get oil prices up again.
You could see that one coming a mile away.
U.S. Dollar and retail stocks took off yesterday, and were all green during the intraday correction this morning.
As predicted, another "Midnight Massacre" perfectly executed with USDX swap lines.
On a Friday, just like the last time.
I would very much appreciate if you could detail the mechanics of this a bit more. Thank you.
Robo doing some kind of victory bull dance as nothing much happens at all, equities down, Brent down $2, he claims some kind of big 'see I told you so' over what?
Well, once this is settled (possibly over the weekend), the DJIA will rally 300 points to "make up lost ground", completely ignoring the DJIA in fact rose during this standoff.
But such are the rules during this growing anticipation of inflation, anything but a 1% point gain is considered a "dip".
Captain Hindsight strikes again.
If you could see it coming a mile away, why didn't you say anything?
Derision.
Yes, as per Voodoo-economist, please explain.
Don Coxe is replacing Mubarak?
I junked him for another top-ticking + monday morning QBing effort... esp. when he wasn't saying anything during the price of oil skyrocketing..
A little before sundown in Cairo the crowd all of a sudden went wild. Amazing sound of millions of jubilent cheers. Tears of joy and shouts of a free people filled the air as the news of their victory with Mubarak stepping down. I was close to tears myself.
Not a minute later the news of it just beig a rumor were told. I could almost feel the blow to the gut mtself...
Shows you how fast these markets actually are these days.
Why is the exit of Hosni bearish for oil? The thinking is that they will not close the Suez Canal.
This is bullshit. Hosni leaves (he will) that canal is getting closed.
If it can go wrong, it will go wrong. This situation is out of control.
Agreed, but after the markets close.
Rhetorical Question-
Got physical?
Only 10m bbls go thru there a day,not a real huge factor.
Plus, IF they try/do it.............look out.
What rumor of Mubarack stepping down? I dont see anything even on ME news.
Baltic Dry has been plunging for past half year, I think this is the canary
1,045 - inching closer to 3-digit territory.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
It's been well established that the BDI is falling because of a glut of ships not because of actual loads. Think about it, with all the commodities being shipped everywhere right now, shipping and freight are actually up. The BDI takes into consideration all the ships available and there are hundreds more now then there were just a couple of years ago. So in reality, shipments are up just spread among more ships thus lowering the BDI.
OH right, there are too many ships! :D
It has "been established" by those who wish to esablish it. The order backlog is and has always been perfectly visible, is disclosed every day, and everyone who follows the BDIY has known there would be a surge in new boats in late 2010. To say that anyone was surprised by this, and therefore the price is reacting to this, is an argument only the most complete novices, and only those who have heard of the BDIY for the first time a few months ago, can make. Furthermore, on a relative basis the number of ships has not increased by more than 10% when accounting for scrappage and parking. What is happening with the BDIY is indicative of nothing short than a complete collapse in demand. Lastly, with dayrates so low that more than half the operators are losing money on a charter, more than half of them would be out of business, thereby returning the equilibrium price higher. And yet, this is not happening.
But, but, but Apple IS world trade! They're doing super, therefore the world is doing super.
Therefore, we are bleach.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8QgviyaU4U
I think Hamy Hairy Wanqer Cankqer just got blown out of de water!
First, from Bloomberg:
While about 90 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the Round Table of International Shipping Associations, the slump in rates is being caused by a vessel surplus not a contracting world economy. ... The surplus was caused by orders placed in 2007 and 2008, when daily income averaged about $111,000.
Second, as Bill McBride explains:
There are many more ships coming online - no surprise since shipping rates went through the roof a few years ago and it takes time to build new ships!
Third, again from Bloomberg:
Freight costs fell as Queensland’s worst flooding for 50 years prompted buyers of the Australian state’s coal to cancel ship charters, intensifying competition for cargoes as the extra vessels become available.
In summary, it has absolutely nothing to do with "a complete collapse in demand". That statement alone in the face of worldwide growth, is nothing short of silly.
Bloomberg? hahahaha
Ouch, Harry.
I admire your guts for sticking around here, but you just got owned.
I admire your guts for sticking around here, but you just got owned.
How so? I just refuted his claim 100%.
ahh, not 100%. You completely ignored one key point in Tylers post:
It has "been established" by those who wish to esablish it.
How do you trust a round table that doesn't even have a King Arthur?
Double post.
Double your fail, with HarryWanger Gum!
Run away. Run away.
Hey Tyler!
Look at this:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/475264-tim-ayles/134563-debunking-myth...
Tim Ayles is claiming you're wrong about monetary system ;)Who?
Tim Ayles - financial advisor :)
He's written something quite contradictiorial:
"Zero hedge gets the monetary system wrong. I read them daily."
Well, I don't know why he is reading Tyler's posts than daily. Monetary system is probably the most importatnt issue, and when you colide on that issue, than nothing realy worth is left for you here.
But anyhow, this is Tim Ayles - financial advisor, who is advising his clients to go to bed relaxed, because right next morning dollar isn't going to be worthless :)
I read thru some of it, his first 2 topics there shows he's completely out of touch with any reality of whats actually going on. He prattles on pretty well from textbook Econ 101 stuff, and judging by his writings he's only still afloat due to the miracle of a completely rigged FED and markets.
He's right, the dollar won't be worthless the next morning, its been worthless since Tricky Dick took it off the Gold Standard.
Well, actually it became worhtless as soon as the Federal Reserve was created, but why quibble.
financial adviser, who is advising his clients to go to bed relaxed, because right next morning dollar isn't going to be worthless :)
Must have an inside clue,and way more intelligent than Rogers,Faber,Schiff,Celente,etc,etc,etc.
The last three seers are out of USD's and have been for 2yrs +.
Ayles says ZH just doesn't understand the monetaray system. Tim Ayles seems to be saying: "The necronomy is just fine!" I didn't reply to the other site because I can't be bothered to sign in.
Question for Ayles: How can our Fed and ECBs be getting the monetary system right? They unsuccessfully resorted to lawyers for two years to keep from letting anyone know they are passing trillions of $$ amongst themselves to remain solvent. Apparently it just wasn't enough for them to directly loot the sovereign citizens to save themselves.
Even the Chinese literally laughed Geithner off the stage in Beijing 2009 when they saw the Keynesian Circus come to town. Are they all wrong too?
Thanks, it's nice to read a counter opinion. I think some of his points are valid and may mean things aren't that bad. But I would still have a savings in gold rather than stocks.
On second thought, my post did not warrant a reply while Harry's did. Hmmm, interesting...
Now if only Barack can step down...
Oh, though speak blasphemy, I'm still waiting for my hopium and changeium.
...we can get a NEW puppet, controlled by the bankers.
Boehner and his "austerity" cuts are getting more laughable by the minute. Now, they're down to $35bn. Wooah, yeah, you've really grasped the situation, el duderino.
What they will wind up cutting, if anything, is something along the lines of subsidized vaccinations for children of the very poor. Then, next year or the year after, during the whooping cough epidemic...
When you have socialists/fascists at the wheel, and still can VETO,take what you can get one bite at a time.
No big deal...Just an algo glitch. Oil will continue it's rise. More important is the 10 yr is at 3.64
Yep... What a fucking circus..
Umm guys. 100 million american's buried under a foot of snow. HELLO.
More snow coming. I can't even get to bank to deposit money to pay bills.
Snow, in winter!? We must somehow adjust for this disturbing new trend that has never been seen before.