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Brent Plunges On Rumor Mubarak To Resign, Takes Entire Commodity Complex With It
The latest rumor rocking the commodity space is that Hank "M.A.D" Mubarak will resign. We are not sure where this rumor has originated from but it is wreaking havoc on the oil complex, and by sympathy, on all commodities, and risk assets as well. That is coincided with the end of a POMO that had a 4 S/A ratio only confirms the weakness in stocks. On the other hand, the snapback rally once this wave of optimism dies down could be vicious. Keep an eye on Reuters for confirmation of any Mubarak news.
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This is not a goddamn localized event. 1/3 of the UNITED STATES IS buried. Dozens of states are declaring disaster areas and asking for federal assistance. 50 million people can't drive anywhere. The other 50 million people will only go out to get their car from where it is stuck or for emergencies. We are talking upwards of 4 days with several million barrels of oil worth of consumption just disappearing from normal supply.
Queensland is a wreck and egypt is chaos.
Oil/gas heats buildings too.
Not in new mexico or oklahoma or kansas or several of the other states. We are all nat gas fired elecricity and gas nat gas heating.
And interstates are clear so trucking is fairly clear but people won't go out. It'll melt off some this weekend here and rebury next week.
You don't understand what a blizzard it was. In one area 21 inches of snow fell. People were stuck out everywhere and taken to shelters by the national guard in humvees. The highways literally choked off center medians were buried and nearly invisible. None of the sidestreets are cleared so you can't even get out to the main areas which are cleared. A guy drove his SUV into a river because he couldn't see the road and simply ran up on the rail and flipped over it. 8 people inside 3 died the survivors had core temps of 86f. Barely alive.
Follow the forecast and realize you limitations. Problem is that no one these days recognizes the real world we live in anymore.
It was a SUV full of illegal immigrants(mexicans). I'm guessing they didn't check the forecast.
Getting caught out in a storm like that and needing rescued is just ignorant. What is worse, those people not only risked their own lives and their families' lives, but those poor National Guardsmen had to go out and risk their lives to rescue them. There was plenty of warning. Everyone knew this was coming. Weren't people cautioned about unnecessary travel? Weren't people advised to stock up, go home and stay there? Did people think those warnings were just so the announcers could admire their speaking voices, or that an emergency constituted needing a pack of cigarettes and a 6-pack? Up here in Minnesota we get at least one storm like that most years and they really get dumped on in upstate New York. Yes, it takes a day or two to dig out, and that is if you live in town. My in-laws on the farm in South Dakota tell me it can be as much as a week or 10 days before they are dug out. I believe that even in New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas storms like this, though rare, are not completely unheard of. It is just common sense to keep at least a few weeks' supplies around the house. The government recommends it. In case of a blizzard you go home if you can and you stay there. If you can't get home you stay where you are at, if its at the office or a convenience store you'll be uncomfortable, but not dead. If you get stuck in your car you stay with it no matter how long it takes and try to keep it from getting buried. You'll be slightly more comfortable if you keep a candle and matches in the glove box and a couple of blankets, in the back seat. A couple of energy bars would be nice too.
Something American public school children will never understand.
You left out the UK,Russia, and a lot more.
Agree. I don't see how this would drop oil.
Uncertainty increases when/if he's gone.
Then again, in this insane brave new world, a rumor of a comet bigger than earth set to hit earth next week would be 'better than expected' and reason enough for a rally in everything.
CRUDE (march)
march futures taken below 20ma, then 50 ma...nothing more than picking up the stops from fri-mon run up, MIGHT spike down to about 87.50, then up again. at that time Sell OTM puts around the 82-85 strike.
COTTON lots of nice profits on the Mar. OTM 180-185 CALLS sold a few days ago (as suggested here)I am thinking the oil speculators are viewing Mubarak as having won or close to winning this war of attrition against the protesters and will be staying, thus the thug government is staying and things will get back to "normal". Mubarak leaving would be de-stabilizing, and I would think that would send oil prices higher since markets fear the unknown more than anything else and it is totally unknown who would step in to the power vacuum and how, should Mubarak leave.
And please, am I the only one that gets trigonometry for the Math Question? A simple 2 + 2 would suffice.
I'm with you. Peaceful demo, get hungry, go home, thugs win. "Calm & stable" transition gives time to find another Anglo banking cabal-vetted puppet. Oil companies and those reliant on the Suez Canal breath a sigh of relief.
2+2 would not suffice as that capture serves as more than a gateway for moving co2 /oxygen exchangers.
CRUDE
I might add that the last 4 down days (including today) have been on declining volume, so...nothing to see here............move along.
Volume temporarily reduced by snow.
He he he he....sold my energy several days ago. Never got the nerve to short it, but im temporsrily long the dollar and long the market and long the good ol usa....such a nice old gal...we go way back...brings tears to your eyes dont it? Dollar index anyone. Everybody and cramer and goldman sachs are net dollar short...it has to rise temporarily.
So what does the M.A.D. stand for:
Mad Ass Dictator?
Welcome to Egypt. Welcome to the prison planet.
My OptionsXpress account just died for 8 mins no quotes. Anyone else have the same problem with other brokers?
same here. I also get PFG quotes but they did NOT go down.
anybody can tell how to post a photo here?
Harry what's the score going to be for the Super Bowl Sunday?
Mubabak resigns and the risk of the Suez canal being closed in the next few weeks drops to NIL. Thus, a brief hiatus from a crisis. Traders trade in seconds, minutes and days. We all know the new regime probably will be a longer term bigger risk to oil prices. But who cares.....all that matters is today. Short term risk is minimzed if mubarak resigns.....longer term is another matter. The market can deal with that in futures contracts.
This sounds right.
I couldn't be a day trader, I am no good at thinking like this. It's like having sex using the withdraw method. Feels good but you best pay attention and pull out in time.
Reminds me of an old one:
What is the plural of coitus interruptus ?
Twins
I thought that was Lack of coitus interruptus ?
Matter of fact, sure wish the Bernake would stop humping us for a while, just a week or two.
Pre-seminal ejaculation makes coitus interruptus ineffective as a form of birth control.
Oh...HARRY!!! while you pound your weak chest...How come you haven't claimed to called the parabolic rise in FNM and FRE. Now thats a metric a use to catch a top, pink sheets zombies having 1000% moves since Jan 1.... I am short finally,
So who knew before it was announced that it would be announced and hence preempted the market move, making themslves alot of monay ( you know . like Hilary did just before UK, Brown, dumped their gold)
from al jazeera: Media in Montenegro is reporting that Hosni Mubarak may find exile in their country, and that his son and close personal friends are preparing things for him to arrive there. Montenegro is where deposed Thai prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, sought refuge.
is it possible to attach charts to comments? if yes how plz.
have to be a contributor for that privilege.
Since the real problem today is in the Treasury complex, and they're selling what they can to try and put out the fire, I'd say it originated from the Fed., and Treasury, and the White House.
Traders said the rumor seemed to stem from a brief report on U.S. television station CNBC, but more than two hours later there was no news on Egyptian TV about any announcements or possible transition of power. There were no reports from other media outlets suggesting any imminent news from Egypt. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/idINIndia-54669420110204
So how far up the food chain do you have to be to front run planted rumors like this? Or is it just "taken care of" in your managed account?
But he already resigned. The next election is in September and he announced he is not running.
He is being replaced due to his inability to quell the brotherhood. The military there is quite well armed and trained. If they were ruled by insurgents it would be troublesome. Nine hundred year jihads are always started by young men suffering from economic malaise.
The issue for those in the street creating the crisis is NOW not next September. So the rumor, as I understand it, had to do with Mubarek's imminent departure from office stabilizing things. This is what Reuters said has not been confirmed outside of CNBC.
Mubarak's worth 40 to 70 billion dollars, his whole family is wealthy. It's real to get wealthy in a country that you control, real easy.
As mentioned, crude oil weekly and monthly charts are not bullish at present.
EURO downside and USD upside will keep recurring.
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