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Brown Brothers Ruminates On The Future Of The Yen As The Next DPJ Leader Remains Undecided
All eyes are glued at Japan tonight to see who the new DPJ leader will be. As of last check the race was in its photofinish stages, with both Kan and Ozawa having an identical number of supporters. Should Ozawa win, there is an expectation that the new PM would engage in major Yen intervention, and rescue the toothless BoJ from the peanut brittle of its utter worthlessness, and since the volumeless and robotized 2nd derivative of the AUDJPY known as the US stock market trades tick for tick with the JPY, the first indication of Ozawa taking a decisive lead should send the futures limit up at 9Gs. Regardless, even if Kan remains in power, with so much of the fate of the free world dependant on the most irrelevant variable imaginable, here is an outlook on the Yen from Marc Chandler, head of Global FX Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, who however sees continued strength for the JPY in the near future, which means that even more stat arbs will explode over the next few weeks as stocks continue to correlate only with the Ambien consumption of one Phillip Hildebrand. "The unwinding of the previous yen carry trade is playing out and although the private sector is purchasing a large amount of foreign assets, roughly the same amount was tried previously (by the BOJ) and, it too, did not work. The stemming of the yen’s appreciation will require greater export of capital from Japan. Short-term speculative capital flows and other flows not picked up in this sketch are difficult to ascertain, leaving it difficult to generate an estimate of the magnitude of capital that needs to be exported from Japan. However, if the will was there, the Japanese government could step in to address the market's failure to sufficiently export Japan’s surplus capital."
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What can brown do for you?
Sure, junk away on a seemingly inane post.
However, this is where you're wrong.
As you see, BBH pays ZH to place one of their "reports." ZH gladly accepts the money, as tiny little ads aren't paying what they used to.
What does BBH receive in return, besides building up their brand?
More potential entrants into the FX trading arena -- where they will get scalped by BBH. Ka-ching!
Elementary, my dear Tyler.
Bravo, for aiding & abetting!
1. I've noticed an increase in junks lately - my theory is that newcomers use it as a sort of thumbs-down button, like at Marketwatch. I have no idea, but I think the meaning of the junk button has been devalued significantly. And the regulars/long-term ZH'ers take it more personally that a comment gets junked. As mentioned, I just don't think it means much anymore.
2. Do you know ZH gets paid for article access? I'm not naive, but would be interested to know if this is a fact...
Zero Hedge, of course, does not get paid for posting research reports (which are presented so that at least our intelligent readers can try to form their own opinions... the others, well). In fact usually it should be the opposite. We do, however, relish in keeping track of how many single-IQ point readers visit this site, and end up bringing down the CPM on otherwise revenue-generating ads.
TD gets junked - sort of proving my point about the devalued (or hyper-inflated, depends upon how you look at it) junk button.
"single-IQ points readers" - um, I resemble that remark? ;)
Who "junked" Tyler Durden? That is not cool. I'm gonna find that fucker and kick him in the nuts! I bet it was TiMMY!
While we have never received any compensation from BBH (and never will) I guess we should just hold our breath until you decide to donate (that button to your left in case you were wondering) to Zero Hedge?
My yellow teeth are now CURED -- thank you, ZH!
I've been meaning to re-allocate some of my canceled WSJ subscription payments...
You mean The RMJ?
Warren Buffett says the U.S. won't have a double-dip recession. This liar is just another propagandist. Old man - shut the fuck up!
Comment gets a lot of play on the MSM of course. I railed on it earlier, that it strains credibility that you can assign a probability to a possible event at zero. Disingenuous.
Uh, actually not all eyes are glued to Japan to see who the next robot-leader there will be. They're all the same, aren't they? Japan is giant ship with no rudder, and some puny beaurocrat sure ain't turning it around.
Nobody mentions that the revolving door of Japanese PMs have all listened to Krugman/Keynesian advice from the US and American-schooled, Japanese economists with one exception. Junichro Koizumi tried to institute sane policies and lasted the better part of 5 years.
He went on to claim his greatest success by being the voice of Ultraman King in Mega Monster Battle: Ultra Galaxy Legend, The Movie.
good old Brown Brothers Harriman, one of the leading banksters who bank rolled hitler's war machine...and with whom prescott bush committed treason in ww2. he was caught in 1942 but the banksters threatened fdr cut off funding for ww2 unless he let the banksters and cabal free.
a rather paradoxical threat. yes the cords of treason bind thick bbh, the bushes, ig farben, ge, standard oil of new jersey and a huge cast of ruling class thousands...
nice to see the traitors prospering. and if anyone thinks that is old news, submit your self nomination to fucktards international.
Sounds great!
Where do I sign up?
eur/jpy to 97, bitchez.
Which will last longer - the next JP PM, or the next drop in ES? I wouldn't bet on either being there in the morning.
USD/JPY making fresh 15 year lows, and ES just yawns - giving back virtually none of the latest ramp.
harold and kumar don't fire up HAL until 6am EST.
They like to take the ES for a test drive at 2am (the illiquid hour before Europe opens), but that's usually taken back once everyone has a chance to sell the major indicies.
I'm watching (and laughing at) the hard sells of gold at the 1250 line.
It's not your gold unless it's in your hand.
Bloomberg
Yen Rises to 15-Year High on Speculation Kan Will Win DPJ VoteSeptember 13, 2010, 9:22 PM EDT
By Yasuhiko Seki and Ron Harui
Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to a 15-year high versus the dollar on speculation Prime Minister Naoto Kan will beat his rival Ichiro Ozawa in a vote today, reducing the likelihood the government will intervene to weaken the currency.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-13/yen-rises-to-15-year-high-on...
I read an article about 5 years ago that said, in essence, that the US economy would be in big trouble if Japan got in big trouble because they would come demand their money from all the treasuries they owned (and they owned a lot).
Is that still true? (Not that we aren't still toast because of a host of other reasons)
Forget the Yen tonight, the Swissie is on absolute fire. USD/CHF ready to break parity.
Yet, the bid in gold is still completely stuck at 1249.90. Just amazing that it can sit there for so long without budging (or the rare tick down to 1249.80), while the CHF is burning the house down and USD/JPY makes new lows. You'd almost think it's... nah, I'll put the tinfoil conspiracy hat away.
I think if silver can stay about $20 for a couple of days...especially if the market turns down...then we might have a move to $21 or more. Must be hard to be a silver manipulator these days...
Either that or they are waiting for the gathering crowd of clueless "investors" to jump in before setting off the explosion of selling. Would be true to form.
Nice move in JPY in The Return of Kan (new high).
Indeed. And a lot of people in Japan feeling more than a little disappointed now.
Horrible German Zew economic sentiment...
-4.3 vs +10.0 forecast
Thank u, i found this for a long time.
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