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Bubble Blowing Continues Unabated
Still staring bug-eyed at the monitor, seeing all sorts of stocks breaking out to new highs as the bubble continues to sky to new heights. Gambling fever is still running amok, especially among hedge fund managers caught with their pants down sitting in money markets.
Here are a few samples of stocks getting chased today:
Now we have to sit back and wait for AAPL and TXN and see what they have to say.
Meanwhile, check out the mo-mo players washed overboard chasing these hookers:
Well, so much for Fannie and Freddie getting back on their feet.
That simply increases more pressure on the Fed to buy any and all mortgages underwritten to keep McMansion prices elevated and avoid another deflationary collapse.
Not only will the Fed have to buy all new mortgages, they will have to maintain their guarantee upon the heaps of other mortgages still festering out there.
Because these junkers which were dryhumped earlier have clearly failed:
Any wonder why gold is skying and the U.S. dollar continues to plunge?
I'll be gone for a couple hours, I'll check back on AAPL and TXN later..
Good luck to all Riverboaters...
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And all the caffeine addicts jonesing for Robo's comments on coffee stocks today are left looking like that POT chick (which was appreciated, by the way).
Wow...
Check out Timminco in Canada:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TIM.TO&t=5d
Other solars like Trina (TSL) and Sunpower (SPWRA) also took off today. This sector is on my bubble watch. It could be the next big thing.
[Note: I like Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Suntech (STP), Yingli Green (YGE), and LDK Solar (LDK)].
As for bubbles, like I stated before, unprecedented liquidity + performance anxiety will drive equities much higher.
your instincts have been on the money for a number of months now (similar to ECRI's call for a turn in the business cycle last Spring)
What do you foresee vis a vis the USD? - i.e. is there a tipping point whereby its weakness will become a collapse
Do you agree with Garth Turner's post over the weekend on Canadian real estate?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/10/16/ottawas-bubble/
Wash, rinse, repeat. A friend of mine, is selling used cars (for the down payment), repo-ing it at first missed/late payment, and selling it again. Cash flow and, depreciation is a write-off. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Rumor or not, but some real estate people are saying that Canada's real estate is lopsided compared to the US becahse American buyers are buying 2nd homes in Canada.
What is the safest place for a retired American when the shit hits the fan? Mexico or Canada?
Canada has same language, same culture, health care, security, safety and a stronger currency.
Toronto index TSX is heavily bought by US investors. Makes only sense when US investors buy a home in Canada. Because there's only a fraction of Canadian population vs American population a 1% or 2% of American buyers in Canada's real estate is visible in demand. Supply is also reduced since last year.
Overall though I tend to agree that Canada's real estate is probably overpriced and the taxpayers are in for a rude awakening when the 5% down Micky Mouse mortgage holders can't afford the property and government has to step in to salvage CMHC.
Mexico is a lost cause. According to a friend of mine who has a house in one of the sleepy mountain towns, it more dangerous than New Guinea.
I agree with Garth Turner, our real estate markets are getting bubbly, especially in some regions like Toronto. We have not reached the U.S. speculative mania yet, but we're heading there. As for the Canadian dollar, it's benefitting from massive hedge fund flows into oil and the CAD itself. It's not just about Canada's "strong fundamentals". If the CAD reaches parity or goes further, I would be buying puts to protect my gains. If you believe in peak oil and that the massive U.S. dollar devaluation will continue unabated for some time, then you let the CAD run up.
Investors are flocking to Candian listed stocks, especially if they are resource plays. Here are a few:
TRX.V
VEN.TO
KCL.TO
WPX.V (China is sniffing around a bit more in Canada for potash, if anyone was wondering about those green potash shoots today)
CN.V
IMN.TO
EFX-UN.TO
LUN.TO
I think WFC on wed is going to be crucial for Oct. Ironically, the whole rinse, wash reload short squeeze cycle started with WFC earnings back in April.
CMA would be a good prelude to WFC.
those earnings were completely based on the fasb 157 matter.
oo, someone black listed "comrade" , not cool !!!
AAPL blows away the number. AFT HRS crossed $200/sh
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DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) fiscal fourth-quarter profit jumped 47% as the company sold more Macintosh computers and iPhones than in any previous quarter, which helped drive revenue.
Shares were up 7.2% to $203.43 in after-hours trading, as the company's latest results easily beat analysts' expectations. The stock has more than doubled this year.
The maker of computers and electronic devices, which is notorious for giving conservative guidance, said it expects fiscal first-quarter earnings of $1.70 to $1.78 a share on revenue of $11.3 billion to $11.6 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected $1.91 and $11.45 billion, respectively.
The lower earnings view might be some concern for analysts, which are focusing on Apple's outlook for the end-of-the-year holiday shopping season.
Apple has defied the recession with its slick laptops and smart phones. There have been some concerns over margins - which are expected to be pressured as the company continues to lower prices, although the company has been successful in locking in lower prices components like screens and memory chips.
For the quarter ended Sept. 26, Apple reported earnings of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 a share, up from $1.14 billion, or $1.26 a share, a year earlier. Revenue jumped 25% to $9.87 billion, with 54% of sales in the U.S.
In July, Apple said it expected earnings of $1.18 to $1.23 on revenue of $8.7 billion to $8.9 billion. Wall Street's latest estimates were $1.42 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion.
In the latest quarter, gross margin improved to 36.6% from 34.7%.
Meanwhile, if the company wasn't required to defer revenue from iPhone handsets and Apple TV units shipped in current and prior periods, it would have reported earnings of $3.12, up from $2.69 a year earlier. Revenue would have increased 4.9% to $12.25 billion.
Apple sold 3.05 million Macintosh computers in the latest quarter, up 17% from a year earlier. The company sold 10.2 million iPod media players, down 8%.
Apple has dropped prices across its iPod lineup as the company tries to revive slowing sales. And while the iPod is still the dominant digital music player, it has been eclipsed by the fast-selling iPhone, which reported sales of 7.4 million units, growing 7% from year-ago levels.
-By John Kell, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2480; john.kell@dowjones.com
"There have been some concerns over margins - which are expected to be pressured as the company continues to lower prices, although the company has been successful in locking in lower prices components like screens and memory chips."
That's apple propaganda for you. The reality is that Apple like Nike and all MNCs, squeezed their contractors out of any semblance of margins during the last 2 quarters when capacity was idling due to the crash. Going forward, I am not sure Apple can maintain the same squeeze while still being forced to cut prices as competitors are gunning for the same smart phones market ie RIM, HTC, Nokia, Samsung, LG etc. And component prices are starting to recover. The crisis made the leaders stronger, like GS and JPM thriving while the rest burned. But the smart phone war is on, and the real market is not the US anymore now that stimulus money and tax rebates have been doled out. The real battle ground is in Asia and Latin America, where Apple is much weaker than HTC and Samsung, or even Nokia, wghich is bleeding and can be expected to fight back in the next 2 quarters. Apple, Goldman are 2 stocks waiting to disappoint in my view as economies stabilise and competition fight back.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/19/afx7016648.html
AIG Two Billion More
The aircraft leasing unit of American International Group Inc. said Monday its parent company had provided another $2 billion in U.S. government-backed funds to meet short-term financing needs.
http://news.google.ca/news/url?sa=t&ct2=ca%2F0_0_s_0_0_t&usg=AFQjCNHQTBS...
A watched pot never mean reverts.
Widows and orphans are now getting in on the bubble...
Eminence Front
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mr7SxEY2-VU&feature=related
Apple's ADJUSTED earnings were up 16%. Why does this merit wild jubilation?
anyone have an idea when a good sell off will come?
Re: GMCR
Reminds me of Crispy Creme and Kenny Rodgers Roasters. Coffee is growing like the internet, totally justified at 65 p/e. Think of the number of eyeballs that pass Green Mountain coffee everyday. If Green Mountain only gets 2% of the world's coffee sales....
Well, I guess cofee is going to be our next growth industry that is going to catapult the economy of this country into a much higher degree than what the computer and the internet did in the nineties. The only problem is,it doesn't grow cofee. So I guess we have to borrow some Colombian land to complete the formula needed for the next growth generator of the GDP.....
longer dated puts on gmcr for the eventual crash and burn. Who would have ever thought coffe as the next bubble, real sad.