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Build In Oil Inventories Leads To Plunge In... Gold
Exhibit A in Efficient Market Theory. A few minutes ago the DOE released its crude oil inventory data for the Week of March 25. With Crude inventories expected to decline from 2,131K to 1,500K (you know the whole economic improvement thing and what not), instead we got a build to 2,945K, with Cushing surging from 177K to 1,689K. What would one expect should get killed on this data? Oil right? Yet below we get a glimpse of what mega leveraged and ultra trigger finger happy correlation desks trade like these days.
So let's get this straight: a surge in crude, which implicitly means the economy is slowing down as everyone realizes, and which means the Fed will likely have to step in again soon, is bearish for gold?
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BTFD
Pass me some more crazy pills, if enough are swallowed, maybe we can come full circle to sanity land.
Nope Dog,
You'll arrive at a unicorn ranch...which can be fun.
As for gold plunging as a proxy for oil, while another Apple analyst commits credibility suicide upgrading the thing as margins collapse faster than the supply chain, causing the stock to fall as the NASDAQ rises [even though Apple is 25% of that index], while casual diners rise despite massive off loading of shares...which is curious...ummm....
Yeah, give me some more pills too and we'll ride unicorns this afternoon....K? Let's see if Bob Pisani wants to join us...cause I'm sure he is very excited.
Fuck this fake economy.
I used to trade, now i am 'opting out'.
I no longer choose to participate. I would rather lose my money chasing pipedreams in vegas than buy at these levels.
Have fun, or fuck it.
When a market rewards the last and worst trader of the day, each and every day, it is no longer a market. It is officially a Ponzi scheme. So should the morons rush into shares of Chipotle or Apple today, and should they be carried to profits by the close yet again, you will then know what the condition of the market is.
It isn't a market. It is the wasteland that Ben Bernanke made when he printed our dollars into oblivion and gave them to J. Dimon and L. Blankfeind and such...because Ben still detected that subprime mortgage paper was still deflating, and this after the first TARP bailout of the banks did not work [because bankers sopped it all up playing stock market and taking huge bonuses]. Ponzi freakin' wasteland!
But what are you bitching about? We're all meeting at the unicorn ranch today. Chin up, dude!
A unicorn ranch!
Why didn't I think of that?
My only apprehension is that they eat skittles, and those have really gone up in price because of The Bernank & The Quantitative Easing.
Brother Truth,
Skittles? Really? I thought unicorns ate Ipads...which are getting cheaper all the time, I am hearing....not that Apple shares know this.
Skittles? Man, nothing is going right today. Surely some more easing would fix things....OR...
100,000 bankers fired out of NY, NY...a thinning out of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.
But what do I know...this is my first trip to the unicorn ranch, and I am not a "preferred" banker...so, you know, it doesn't matter what I think.
Man...I miss shopping stories.
I tried feeding them iPad, because it was cheaper than skittles, but the meat had more gristle. They thrive on skittles and earl grey.
Oh, and I agree with you about that whole Wall Street Epic Criminal Racket comment. But for now, the sheeple are buying lots of iPad with their UE and non-payment of mortgage money.
So it's good for the next couple weeks, or months, or however, until it's not, at which time it will be very, very dark.
I've been raising unicorns on my farm for some time.
Having a problem keeping their horn on, though.
Hmmm. Maybe I should be feeding them some QE3 mix instead of grass and grain.
Bob Piss-On-Me: leading establishment conformist shill at the NYSE for cnbc. What a disgrace!
He also defiled a Shao-lin temple, go kick his @ss, LooseLee!
BEN SHALOM BERNANKE: motion is seconded.
BALIFF: all in favor say 'aye'
TREASURY SECRETARY GEITNER, PRESIDENT OBAMA, MIDDLE CLASS TRYING TO PROTECT THEIR SAVINGS: 'AYE'
BALIFF: all who object say 'nay'
DUMBASS TRADER WHO DIDN'T GET MEMO AND STILL BELIEVES IN FUNDAMENTALS: 'nay'
JUDGE JOE BROWN: IT IS SO ORDERED, BTFD.
and now the DXY appears to be following suit and taking a nose dive.
perfect...just....fuckin...perfect.
Awesome, BTFD
These are the schizophrenia markets, because you'd have to be schizophrenic to think that there's any correlation to reality -
- whatsoever.
CNBC ask today: What will it take to get regular investors back in the market?
Does the public understand it is a rigged game to take their money. Yup !
All regular investors are now investing in the supermarket.
Didn't mean to junk you, my apologies.
The I phone did it I swear
This is just manipulation to discourage future/options holders from standing for delivery.
more games
My condolences to Jim Puplava, Eric King, and Chris Martenson.
Retail index now printing new highs, while gold and oil get slammed.
LOL, Catfishmouth drama queen wildly exagerates a PM holder total drubbing, while reality shows PM's are still up for the day.
The TBTF and the HFT's are pushing all the scumbag banks up today. Check out FAZ. Whoooooooo.
So the rigged game continues.
The bots have gone crazy! No humans are left in equities!
Gold? Yes, BTFD.
Gold has been bouncing around $1400 since last fall, BFD, BTFD.
Gold is up 200% versus the RTH since 2005
Robo...what the fuck happened man? You used to provide interesting posts with some occasionally valuable insight...but lately, you've become this piggish troll whos post add about as much value and content as Harry Wagner.
it's sad to see.
Are you serious? he has always posted some dumb chart from yahoo finance showing the 1 month gain in some fraudulent tech stock. I would hardly call that valuable.
Don't encourage him. He is a 20 year-old punk who has no money to invest and no job. That is why he trolls.
There are, of course, other possibilities.
Because when he post solid info the doomer sect like sheep dog ect .... Blast him every single time for bringing another viewpoint. So its real fun to rub this shit in said faces.
All the doomer's ignore the fortune 500 like Cat, Mcd's, Pepsi ect ..... Stupidity.
Aw the Smailes kid is defending his pal Catfishmouth, thats sweet.
Nice none answer .....
Got CAT ?
Got Flour ?
Got Pepsi ?
Got Macy's ?
The back bone of the USA is getting stronger, no more depression, the credit implosion was 3 years ago but you still run around like a fool yelling bloody murder .....
Smails,
Is an economy being propped up by trillions of dollars a sign of strength? Lets stop Gov interfering in all the markets and see who yells bloody murder.
Don't forget MO! What's more American than home grown tobacco?
I actually like reading your posts, as much as i disagree because you bring some good arguments into the mix.
Robot doesn't do any of that. He posts a stupid fucking chart of Apple and says something dumb about how the ipad2 has exceeded even his demand. That is what trolls do.
Smailes brings good arguments into the mix? Really?
Ahhh, no.
+1
Spalding's sense of reality is distorted. He still can't/won't acknowledge the eleven year bull run in gold. His arguments are weak and off base when it comes to PM's.
Robo's personal attacks on those gentlemen is utterly laughable.
Spald,
No we do not ignore them, it's just that alll their profits are in offshore banks, and in offshore workers pockets.Because their products are made everywhere except HERE.
They may as well not even be here for the few that remain on the American payrolls.
It's that, and their exports that are making them profitable, it's not coming back at us,or to us.
Unless you happen to own stocks of said companies.
No way! Gold is going to 36000.
This is a new era. This time it really is different. The old rules don't apply anymore!
robottrader, you are a true shit fur brains kind of dude, but I like your girly pics!
Perhaps gold/silver is telling us that there will be NO QE3 in 2011.
Short term action in this heavily shorted, naked albeit, silver market is not telegraphing anything regarding QE3. Long term trend is another story.
You know what would happen without QE3 right? Something about the inverse relationship between bonds and interest rates might give you a clue. Again, what is that % of debt servicing as it relates to GDP? Hmmmmm.....
I wish there would be no additional QE at this point. It would be nice to hear the music stop as I alrady have my seat.
from the plunge on the chart, watching in realtime, I thought world peace had just been declared. I BTFD
I think higher inventories is extremely bullish for everything.
You see, Bernanke sees this and figures more QE will be needed.
after years of watching the charts, I personally have observed that if there is to be one, a PM smackdown consistently takes place with unfailing regularity at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. i fail to see how this has anything to do with the supply of oil. please enlighten me.
Yea its just more random BS as usual. People trying to link 1 minute snapshots of insanity to another are in for a lot of brain damage.
10 AM EDT = 3 PM London = Afternoon gold fix.
Question is, do the attacks come before, during or after the fix?
After,Londons close is the deathknell 9 of 10 times.
Just like after the US Mkt closes(when you cannot buy except w/charge cards), the bottoms are made.
Just painting the quarterly tape.
gold's down -0.01% for the day...this is a plunge?
Yea really, and people are shocked by a manipulation event in the totaly manipulated markets? People living on the edge of their seat minute to minute in this Ponzi are in for a lot of brain damage.
Yeah, plunge seems a little strong doesn't it.
Whoa dude! Way worser than a plunge, its a WIPEOUT- cue the Surfaris, NOW!
Days like today are when you tell your friends about buying gold and looking into what an old junk silver quarter is fetching, in paper certificates, by way of an illustration.
gotta love Will... a classic clip that is not to be forgotten, especially given the state of the world today...
thanks for the laugh!
I think our evil masters are pounding gold so that the london pm fix hits below 1420, or unchanged for the month/quarter, this being Mar 30th. They're painting the tape.
roman,
yes they are, they know there are enough fools out there that will sell their physical at the drop of a hat.
And that's exactly what they are setting us up for.
Cept, I do not buy it.
IN many ways we are so much worse off than '08, it's unfathomable, not just US, and there is only the light at the end of the tunnel, and it's a TRAIN.
Oil inventory data is to WTI what consumer confidence was (has been) to the equity info campaign
oil priced in gold = oil priced in $, follows oil demand goes down >oil price goes down is $ >oil priced in gold should go down? so gold goes down.. just asking
Hi alter-ego :)
There you are ...finally !
Aye, been reg'd for a while but never felt compelled to post anything. Love the site though, visit daily.
ummm, will we be invited to your wedding? I know that the Queen of England said through the English embassy in DC that the reason why the Obamas (B and M) were not invited is because the wedding is considered a "family affair" with a guest list limit of 1,900 people. Wow...and I thought Mexicans had big families!
So, anyway, if you two have fewer than 1,900 people in your collective multiple psyches/personalities and relations, could we at ZH all be invited...at least in our minds?
Demand Destruction Bitchez!
Remember the Staycation Summers of 2008 and 2009? The Tourist Industry nationwide took a huge hit, and it's back for 2011. Double Dip will be most talked about event in 2011. Too bad for the Redneck Riviera. Last year was a disaster due to the BP oil spill and Staycation 2011 will finish them off.
I am thinking of buying some 'reduced' gulf front property so that I can extract oil from the beach & do some slant drilling.
you better buy now because these deals are going to be gone soon.
No. Real Estate in Florida continues to plunge even as they increase property taxes in a failed attempt to keep tax revenues level. Death Spiral is a fitting description.
You sound like a Realtor.
The real deals are 20 to 30 months away, friend-o. Maybe longer.
Florida is so regulated you must get a permit to put in flowers.
That is definitely true.
And I apologize for calling you a Realtor. I rarely lose my cool like that.
There are some amazing property deals in florida and the gulf coast if you can pay cash. Houses selling at 80 percent discounts. Some of them may need a little work, but a 200,000 house selling for 40,000 can easily justify 20,000 in repairs and still be a great investment. It only cost one guy I know 15,000 to rewire and replumb a house, and then he did the drywall himself. Otherwise it might have been another 4000. Anybody can learn to drywall after watching a youtube video. I will take a 200,000 five year old house for $60,000 fully refurbished anytime.
If everyone bought one contract of gold, it would squeeze the Bernack's shorts that he puts on gold and silver.
Funny how the dollar went down too. Normally gold goes opposite the dollar.
Cushing inventories are mostly irrelevant to world oil prices; this suggests that the spreads will remain wider than typical.
Shutdowns due to Japan and trade disruption will not be unnoticeable.
True, world oil price is ref off Brent.
No the shutdowns were not unnoticeable to the Japanese, as they were limited to ~5gal per car. I guess you can only drive so far from radioactive lava when you are on an island anyway.
Increased uncertainities likes surging long term interest rates ($usb), out of control deficits, Germany/EU in disarry, Japan's unresolved nuclear issues, lack of real economic growth/employment, China's bubble, and higher food/fuel inflation will push gold prices higher. Gold miners will outperform.
Already been priced in
Seems to me like a lot of readers on this website
have grasped the significance and utility of purchasing and storing tangible goods,
gold, silver, non-perishable food, and what not.
Why is it such a surprise, then,
if other people, who happen to have access to large fuel tanks and lots of cash or credit,
are purchasing and storing large amounts of oil?
Yep, well the problem comes when you want to turn around and sell it. Unless those folks just like keeping tanks of oil around.
that is the key! We have a lot of hoarding going on in anticipation of inflation. When real inflation never materializes, just the slow drib and drab of 3 percent YOY at best, then all these people are going to try to sell, or they will just start digging into their hoarded pile of food and coffee. An either case you have a supply demand mismatch that favors deflation.
Question-
Doesn't anyone know what percentage of Americans have hoarded gold/silver?
Doesn't anyone know what percentage of Americans have hoarded food?
Doesn't anyone know what percentage of Americans have hoarded fuel?
Hoarded is the wrong word, how about hedged against inflation.
1-2% tops...
It is possible that oil could rise further from here after this correction is finished.
But that will be because of exponential global growth in consumer spending, as evidenced by today's breakout in the retail index.
;)
lol
In South America, retail IS exploding!
Here in Lima (Peru), it´s no longer a joke to say there is a Starbucks on every corner.
Let´s see how Peru and Brazil do if / when Chinese and Japanese demand for base metals goes adios...
Am I the only one that thinks everyday is getting more out of synch with the underlying reality? I'm not surprised by anything anymore.
This is just the opening act .....
You can blame the EE, Blythe, Opec, Sheen, Haarp,Computer algo driven markets ... whatever ..... Gold is going down and Turd and the doomer sect will be wiping said egg whites of said face for months .... After the middle east shit blows over and they stop QE it will be a bloodbath in the commodity space.
Gold has done shit since Oct 20th, nothing, so the only way to make money is trading miners, etf's and options and over that 5 month span that has been a fools errand .... All this talk about wealth preservation is bullshit 95% of the people on ZH are trying to make money, period.
Good for you, I really hope you're putting your money in robot trader's stock tips.
You were more entertaining when you just pumped AIG.
Gold isn't a fly by night chinese internet stock. Smart people don't measure their wealth in yo-yoing bubble fiat currency.
You and MoMotrader aren't smart people.
There are no such things as traders in a rigged casino, there are only marks who believe they know better and can time/front-run the trades, and there are rubes who do not realize that they are in a casino.
As for your forecast, well, all I can say is bravo, Johnny!
I have tossed out more 20-30% stock runs on ZH then anyone else ...... Not buy and hold, buy sell after 30% then run.
X,RIMM,ZEUS,XOM,JOBS,GLUU,TTWO,AIG,MPEL,IMAX,NVDA,ARMH,SPRD..... ect ....
I would grab Tata Motors ..... TTM it's a steal at this price and you can hold that for years in your IRA.
You time those markets, driver.
Also, your lips are moving.
Mosley,
I respect your intelligence on this formus.
Would you say that those who buy physical are about wealth preservervation, while those that buy ETF's, Options, etc are about making money.
Your argument has several gaping holes. First is the ME. Give me a time when the ME was never a powder keg? Second, your assumption that gold will collapse due to QE ending. Once QE ends, the next step is to raise rates. What do you think will happen when rates go up? Also in an earlier statement you made the allusion that the credit problems were so 3 years ago and did not pose a problem now. Nothing was done with the problem derivatives, and to add fuel to the bomb, even more derivatives have been written.
personal nuclear meltdown....all fundamental investing models and theses breaking down....danger Will Robinson....
Before I bug out, will somebody, anybody, even with the most asinine explanation available....just anything, really.....I'm grasping for straws here....PLEASE 'splain to me how it is at all fucking possible that oil, the dollar, gold, silver, and the euro all tank at the same time? The yen obviously did not spike upward. What was it....did the Zimbabwean dollar spike? WTF???
Update: wait wait wait wait wait just a second, I think I may have it figured out....is the Fed experimentally withdrawing liquidity again today?
this is the final battle between the USD and commodities - gold in particular has been targeted because the reserve status of the USD must be defended at all costs
I tend to agree 'rom', and would take it one step further to treasury auctions (> $100B from Monday to today)... now bringing just about everything else down probably wouldn't hurt the auctions would it... just sayin'.
There's a reason why dozens of (literal) investing legends have closed their shops and returned investor capital in the last 6 months.
I consider that to be the biggest "tell" yet. When even the sharks avoid Uncle Ben's chum, one has to wonder why.
PDs had to dump their commodities to raise cash to purchase the 7yr auction today because no one else would...?
The whole Keynesian economic model is acting like a wounded animal in it's death throes and investors are seeking correlations and predictability?
Im not even attempting to make any sense of the insane 100% manipulated 'markets' and economic data...when its rigged its rigged and no need to worry about it!
Any official organisation cannot be trusted,they are all scum,time to look after oneself the world is f****d as each swing becomes more violent,normality becomes total instability.
/ES and /ZB
Decisions decisions...
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
Yep just wait. Deflation is coming soon. qe2 will end. Bernanke is getting tired of being laughed at. He is about to become mean and prove that he is still significant. We will have deflation soon. Perhaps after a deflation period QE3 might start up again in one form or another.
Gold 36000
Because this time it really is different.
Deflation in what?
The shadow banking credit casino ..... It's not like it was in 2006. Try getting a loan for something over $ 50,000 ....
Subprime paper, Dog. Sheesh...lay off the fluoride, brother.
I am so sick of people saying there is no deflation. Wake up!!! Prices do not rise and fall in aggregate, they are all INDIVIDUAL. We have price inflation in some assets during a deflationary period with a keen risk of hyperinflation or loss in faith of the currency.
Cumulative Trillion dollar Real Estate complex marked-to-market.
Rental rates.
Business lines of credit.
Auto prices.
Real wages.
Consumer revolving credit.
Timely monthly mortgage payments.
Medium and long duration U.S. paper.
FRN relative value.
Total jobs nationally.
Total workforce, in persons.
Labor hours worked.
Trillion dollar Derivative complex marked-to-market.
Subprime and option ARM backed paper.
Uhhhh, No. Please dont ask me to explain. Your statment is a big fat NO. QE will continue and thats that.
Sincerely yours,
The owners
for the last 3 years or so anyone trading on fundamentals got run over. please learn !
Gold price volatility?
This is nothin.
Latest comments from Rick Rule on uranium and energy. Says nuclear power can't go away but could be some good buying opportunities. Also see's oil going much higher.
http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=393
Golds been a benefactor of inefficient markets on the way up so it's only fair.
Isn't it obvious by now that GS and JPM are operating the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for their own purposes? The end of the last oil price explosion in 2008 came with a sudden dump of oil from the SPR. GS and JPM were there ahead of time with the shorts.
I am disgusted with the manipulation of PMs. This morning gold was up $13 and the last i saw just now was down $4 to US1414. Fuck those manipulators !! should be hauled up and execute Chinese style...
Oh noes. We betta tap the strategic oil reserves to keep prices down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LloIp0HMJjc&feature=related
I see what they are doing. They can't work gold and silver any more so they are doing the concentrated rise and smash on platinum and oil. Probably to drop oil to drop gold. Probably smash oil and platinum right before options expiration.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6hL6fkJ1_k
Anyone who wants to tap the Stragegic oil reserves, should be arrested and tried as a traitor.
The oil reserves are to protect this country and to ensure we have the oil to produce food to feed the people.
Lets go drain it, then have an economic meltdown. GREAT IDEA
i simply must say....fuck everyone because no one has a clue. We are all discombobulated. But I do enjoy the hilarious comments. The only one that makes sense is....we will soon be deflating....AGAIN! Buy gold now! Bahahaha......
CONGRATULATIONS.....YOU WON!!
This is not a joke!
Fuck the Federal Reserve Corporation...!!!
Fuck the USA Goverment.
FUCK the TBTF
SACHS of Fucking SHIT...!!!
There got that off my chest ...AGAIN.
I see that Crude has now completely recovered all it's losses after the Inventory report. Gold and Silver have not.
Isn't it remarkable that a correlation can be so very strong in one direction, and so utterly irrelevant in the other?
Sure. Nothing to see here.
The news sound perfectly bullish for oil IMHO. It makes perfect sense if you consider that speculators are hoarding oil and the more inventories rise the more speculators feel validated and compelled to proceed with their strategy. There's a lot of demand for storage currently and I'm quite sure it will increase further.
As for gold, perhaps speculators are rotating some positions away from it towards oil.
This calls for a bit more investigation. Sounds a bit rash to claim it's a violation of the Efficient Market Theory.
Oil correlates directly with inflation. More expensive oil == higher inflation. Higher inflation == higher commodities.
Or to put cause and effect into their correct order. Higher oil prices drive up the costs of producing commodities which drives up inflation figures. Gold hedges inflation, so surplus inventiries means lower oil prices means lower gold prices.
Ben Shalom and Barrack Hussein....
is the U.S. Unicorn being dragged around the arena
by the squable between jews & arabs...?
Silver is either in a bearish or bullish wedge formation. Unfortunately, I can't tell which one.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=slv
Close above 37.20 today = bullish.
BTFD!!!!
I don't believe those EIA OIL Inventory supply data,
and I reckon the figures are totally rigged,
in order to manipulate world markets -
There are just too many Hedge - funds and private Equity groups having storage tankers and ghost - ships going on time-travel and the figures are just as fake and contrived as
the CPI figures (excluding Food and Energy shit) the employment figures at 8.9% as bad as the dodgy GDP figures that are basically derived from NO sales and huge Inventory overhangs.
The figures are rigged and
the only figure I believe in is Lady gaga's
and the US national Debt at 14 trillion as well as
the growing annual Interest bill on that 14t Debt of 450 billion or so.
The rest is of no interest to me, since it is just pure fantasy, hopeum and make-believe
or else the economy would self-destruct, since the economy is basically
a contrived fantasy of the paper-shuffling ponzi-scheme we call wall-street.
And that is a global trend of course. Yes,we are all America now.
We got Earth-quakes, floods, fires ,earth-quakes, nuclear disasters, tsunamies
famine, unemployment, Europe bankrupt, mid-east wars, Revolutions,
death and destruction,yet the markets are doing "better than expected".
Markets and Commodities are going up and up, profits going up and up...who's buying ?
The only thing left holding up the world economy seems to be blue sky, hot air in a
bubbles filled with fantasy and better than expected figures.
It's a rigged global numbers game and the FED is running the Casino,
with the help of the China central totalitarian regime.
The whole world-financial system is as crooked as a corkscrew.
If you expect less than zero than even a hole in the head
might be better than expected.
That's what I reckon...
I reckon the pestilence problem is covered under the radiation poisoning, so you have the Four Horsemen covered.
With a massive inflation in the world's reserve currency, you get a massive world inflation in all the related currencies. Inflation brings instability, so we see governments being changed like underwear and new social tensions boiling over when there isn't enough money to cover the kids' next meal.
Confusion reigns because standards like the value of a currency are in flux, usually downward. Since folks can think for themselves but have been conditioned to not do so, they appear to be stupid. When they get hungry, they will figure it all out by chasing whatever bogeyman is put out there for their consumption.
There is nothing new about this; check Gibbons and Jared Diamond's works on collapse.
Lot of zeroes in the deficit? Check out the average "zerohedge" comment trail. Sounds like a group of high-school nerds wingeing when the QB walks by with a cheerleader on his arm. Get over yourselves, chuckleheads! A losing trade means the trader got it wrong and not the market - same as it ever was.