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Builder Sentiment Tumbles As Tax Credit Expires
The NAHB Home Builder Survey reported a massive 5 point drop, reaching 17, on expectations of 21. The reason for the plunge - concerns about the end of the tax credit. Not even Goldman could spin this news favorably: "Housing market index 17 in June vs. median forecast 21. The National Association of Home Builders reported a 5-point drop in its housing market index for June, pushing it back below the 20 level that had been the low prior to the latest housing market recession. The main driver of the decline was the assessments of current home sales, which dropped 6 points; assessments of future sales and of buyer traffic were down less substantially (-4 and -2, respectively). All four regions suffered declines, but the biggest by far was in the Northeast, where the index had surged to 35 in May only to come back down to 18."Metric by metric, the double dip become increasingly more appreciated.
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Just another bad data point for bulls' to ignore.
There aren't any bulls, just bots.
Not only the bulls, but for also the market to ignore. Just another reason for imaginary retail investors to put more money into stocks. We all know that very few people are cashing in their mutual fund positons....
BABABABAHAHAHAHHAAA!!!!!!
And on this news, the DJI is up 99 points.
check volume on up and down ticks .... massive distribution so beautifully disguised
see also zew
Yup, I'll ignore it and stay long. It's been too painful to short this thing despite it's absurd weakness. It's obvious the gubbermint doesn't welcome another crash, so I'll happily follow the melt-up for now. It seems nothing short of a terrorist attack can shake the market back to reality.
A terrorist attack, or perhaps a catastrophe in the Gulf? Not the one that has occurred, but the further one that might - there seems to be some evidence that a gargantuan gas bubble is forming underground at the well site. If so, hard to predict outcome. Could be ships sinking in gas, a tsunami wiping out Florida, gas killing huge numbers...
Obama's statement that the leak is comparable to 9/11 may have been a CYA move...
"Obama's statement that the leak is comparable to 9/11"
Uh oh, watch out "British" Petroleum.
I need more plastic sheeting.
Goldman can't spin it, but with the Feds cash they can put in futures buy orders to prop up this market.
Now cue Harry Reid for another extension of the tax credit
nm.
So who are you going to believe, the government or your own lying eyes?
Well done Tyler, but you forgot "unexpectedly."
As suggested earlier, the EURUSD daily chart is giving bullish signals.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
But BB said the Fed wasn't putting money into equities.
The Fed has no clothes.
Rail shipments show a decline in crushed stone and lumber...definate sign building is in a huge slowdown.
Fed Weighs Options In Case Growth Ebbs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870368540457530670262799612...
Ominous sounding headline today.
Think that last visit to the Astrologer In Chief pushed it over. Drawing the King of Cups on a Tuesday!
GS is propping market to dump their IPOs, 'Mission Accomplished 'on CBOE, 4 more to go.
Last Thurs commercial traders got out of their S&P puts- ahead of knowing GS was going to do this, next week is end of Q tape-painting, there likely won't be any selloff now.
From David Fry/etfdigest.com:
Remember, there are serious IPOs to get done this week especially with the CBOE coming to market. GS is the lead manager and some rumors were circulating they were in the S&P futures pit buying to prop markets on Thursday and perhaps again late Friday. It isn’t uncommon for this kind of stuff to happen when you want to place a lucrative underwriting deal. The syndicate will get together and support the market as best they can. With volume light, and big fees on the line, it wouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, GS is the lead underwriter for 4 of 5 IPOs this week as per Briefing.com.
Does propping really mean manipulating?
But they don't do that, and the Fed would be a bit grumpy if they thought their free money was spewing into the stock market. Is the Fed money well head broken too, gushing into the market, can't be stopped. Dow to 150,000 and beyond before they can cap it.
This is near insanity, not even the pretext of positive news to pump the market. Just blatant artificial respiration.
The Fed has gone rogue, it is a rogue organisation. Instead people going crazy with guns, it is the Fed running around with truck loads of money splashing it over stocks.
makes sense. thanks for the heads up
Hearing from our folks and other builders, it is clear that homes sales are taking a dip, post tax credit, as the credit served to pull weak demand forward, and now we pay the price. The best scenario is a couple of months of dismal sales followed by a gradual rebound. Very gradual. Worst case is that the intensive care measures fail, and the patient remains comatose, in need of another shot of adrenaline directly into the aorta.
Here in Calif we got a notice credit good til Jan1 for new homes only, I suspect O'Bummer will re-enact credit b4 elections nationwide, excuse is in the bag: not time to close escrow.
Add to that holding Census workers into year end. Excuse in the bag: slow in locating non-responses.
Housing...phew.
I've watched Toll Brothers stock in absolute be-fuddlement for many years now. To me, it was always some sort of a bench-mark for which way the market was headed. And they always displayed this total disconnect from news, which is the dominant paradigm today, but was not so clear 2-3 years ago.
Here in India, a building boom is booming away, it has so much momentum that the ship of construction is hard to correct swiftly. And land for development was bought at such crazy prices that the builders will NOT take a haircut.
Lucky for them, western computer related companies keep on coming and renting these ugly buildings at crazy rates per SqFt and the merry goes around.
As a people, we have moved so far away from land and what it really means, quite staggering.
One of the best statements I heard was from an award winning organic farmer, 78 years of shining health, who stood before an audience of rich yuppies, describing his rags to award winning story and said:
I have never understood these people who call themselves land lords (he own a few hundred acres of exquisite, earth friendly organic farms btw). What arrogance, this term land-lord.
I am but a son of the soil and take everything it gives me with humbleness and gratitude.
It was a priceless, defining statement to me. Something to ponder.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com