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Bullish. No Matter What

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Anyone wishing to capture the mindset of the lemmings that still desire to be front run by every imaginable SkyNet algo out there, needs to read no further than this list prepared by the Daily Bell (h/t Michael Pento)

It's BULLISH No Matter What! ...

The price of oil is rising – BULLISH! More profits for the energy companies, and more investments in "clean energy."

Most of the new jobs created in March were part-time or temporary – BULLISH! Since the economy has turned the corner full-time job offers are practically a sure thing.

But didn't wages go down too? – BULLISH! Revenues - Costs = Profits!

41 states have revenue shortfalls – BULLISH! Various states have always complained about shortfalls. It's another sign that things are getting back to normal.

8 million people are still unemployed – BULLISH! That's 8 million spenders, not savers.

Interest rates are rising – BULLISH! Yet another sign that the economy is getting stronger.

Stocks may be going up but on very low volume – BULLISH! That means the "dumb money" hasn't even bought into this rally yet.

People have a lot of concerns and uncertainty about the future – BULLISH! Not until the "wall of worry" ends will this party be over.

So much new liquidity will cause inflation – BULLISH! Stocks are one of the best hedges against inflation.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are bankrupting us – BULLISH! Don't get mad, get even. Debit the Treasury and Credit the defense companies.

Inflation in China is picking up – BULLISH! That should dampen any bubbles that some people worry about.

Gold is going up in price – BULLISH! This is a broad-based rally.

Wait, maybe gold is going down – BULLISH! That means economic fears are dissipating.

Actually the gold price seems to be consolidating and moving sideways – BULLISH! A sell off or rally would mean things are overheating.

Iran seems determined to develop it's nuclear program – BULLISH! More nuclear power plants means less demand on oil which means lower energy costs which means more profits.

Israel may be forced to handle Iran themselves militarily – BULLISH! That will kick-start the construction industry when we rebuild both sides.

The Health Insurance Reform bill is an abomination – BULLISH! If insurance premiums rise there will be subsidies; if doctors check out they'll be replaced with cheap foreign ones; if care is rationed then costs will be controlled and profits ensured.

And now the student loan programs are nationalized – BULLISH! Good riddance for the banks. Now the government can garnish wages and lower the deficit.

The markets are being purposely manipulated with government money – BULLISH! What's not to like? That means the market ain't going down no matter what.

Big Media is spewing propaganda about the economy – BULLISH! Perception is reality. People only know what they're taught. Advertising works.

Greece may default – BULLISH! Greek bond holders will make up their loses in the stock market.

Japan is a bug in search of a windshield – BULLISH! Just imagine how much more deficit spending we need to do to beat them.

The Euro is getting weaker – BULLISH! King dollar is back.

A $400+ trillion financial mine field of derivatives are set to go off – BULLISH! Let's start the rumor that if the stock market tanks we'll all be dead.

We also are impressed by the DB's summation of the dichotomy between perception (see chart at bottom, or previous post about CNBC propaganda diffusion) and reality (see the 10 foreclosed houses inhabited by 20 unemployed people on your block, or the $12.8 trillion in US sovereign debt)

Conclusion: It seems to us that the power elite, which both organizes and defends the current economic regime – featuring the anti-democratic operation of central banking – is most dependent on media-created perceptions that minimize the bad and emphasize the good. The message, in other words, must be congruent with the system. No matter how long the downturn lasts in actuality, the perception of its lifting must inevitably begin long before its actuality. This can be confusing for investors and is yet one more reason why approaching the marketplace in the 21st century should be carried out with a good deal of due diligence and forethought. The steeper the downturn, the more enthusiastic the rhetoric about recovery. Yet things are not always as they seem. Perception is often different than reality.

As for the the carry trade formerly known as the algo front-runnable stock market, here is an artist's impression of what a straight line looks like (because an early Easter, not paying your mortgage, using maxed out credit cards to buy MAXiPads, and the easiest retail comps in the history of the world are so much more relevant than yet another deterioration to initial jobless claims and a Greek default).

 

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Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:11 | 291915 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Excuse me Tyler, but you mis-spelled BULLSHIT throughout your whole article! Take some lessons in English please.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:31 | 291956 no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

I was going to mention that.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:14 | 291921 Zexe
Zexe's picture

ok Tyler, got your message , so what do we do about it? the power elite - the "bad guys" - seem to have the upper hand. wouldn't it be better if we sided with them? I think there's more to be wonthis way than barking against them. they have the power and they won't let it slip off their hands.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 17:18 | 292129 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

The idea that these people are in control is delusional at best.

How much do they really control.

If we start with the Universe and work our way back to what they believe they actually control, then we see that what they really control doesn't amount to a thimble full of shit.

Take if from me, one day your sole dictator of a country with the largest landmass on the planet, getting ready to purge your closest associates, and the next thing you know your lying on the floor with urine soaked pants dying from a stroke, because one of your associates finally had the guts, with a syringe of poison, to put an end to your reign of terror.

 

Stalin, Man of Steel

Fri, 04/09/2010 - 03:36 | 292761 Bob Dobbs
Bob Dobbs's picture

You just died of a stroke.  It took two days because everyone was afraid of you and let you "sleep in."  You had all of the symptoms of arteriosclerosis for years before you actually died.  Now, Joe, cool it with the conspiracy rap.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:15 | 291927 jmf
jmf's picture

Moin from Germany,

almost as good as

Ladies and Gentlemen, We Are Trading On The Moon

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/01/11/ladies-and-gentlemen-we-are-trading-on-the-moon/

Here are some features of the recent anti-gravity stock market:

  • Bad employment number - stocks go up
  • Good employment number - stocks go up
  • Sovereign credit default - stocks go up
  • Sovereign credit downgraded to junk - stocks go up
  • Hawkish Fed speech - stocks go up
  • Dovish Fed speech - stocks go up
  • Hawkish Fed minutes released - stocks go up
  • Dovish Fed minutes - stocks go up
  • Treasury auction goes well - stocks go up
  • Treasury auction goes poorly - stocks go up
  • Crude oil and other raw costs rally - stocks go up
  • Crude oil and other raw costs sell off - stocks go up
  • Banks report earnings - stocks go up
  • Banks dilute their shareholders back to the bronze age - stocks go up
  • CES preview captures our imaginations - stocks go up
  • CES becomes a joke with 3D TV and a $2300 battery-powered bike - stocks go up
  • The weather is unseasonably warm in November - stocks go up
  • The weather is Antarctic across the country, Black Friday is snowed out - stocks go up
  • Stimulus plan is roundly criticized as wasteful and irresponsible - stocks go up
  • Talk of a yet another stimulus plan begins - stocks go up

Bounce.  Bounce.  Bounce.  Bounce.  Bounce.

Houston, we have a profit.

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:17 | 291932 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

I can sense that frustration through the keyboard. I know the feeling. Amazingly for all these "profits" there is someone on the other end with a loss in this market. Just big banks abusing their system with their leverage that goes unmatched by any hedge fund in existence or still remaining. Nothing created or produced.Just a transference. Someone should inform these guys that if they intend on spending this "created" wealth they need to sell first. Looks very likely to me that whoever bought in huge (Fed) plans on selling in 2022 when the recovery finally gets here.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:28 | 291934 qp
qp's picture

 I smell capitulation coming from this post

Bullish, time to SHORT then.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:29 | 291951 Zexe
Zexe's picture

not there yet. FIRST we have to see Tyler giving long equities recommendation. 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:32 | 291957 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned Wednesday that Americans may have to accept higher taxes or changes in cherished entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security if the nation is to avoid staggering budget deficits that threaten to choke off economic growth.


“These choices are difficult, and it always seems easier to put them off — until the day they cannot be put off anymore,” Bernanke said in a speech. “But unless we as a nation demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth.”

I guess that was good news, rally on. Economic growth was mentioned twice.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:48 | 291991 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

And how exactly did we get there, Mr. Bernanke? Think carefully before you answer.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:56 | 291999 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Bernanke is such a fucking asshole.  So if a bank is insolvent, he will just print money and hand it out like candy.  But if the government has fiscal problems, the people need to suffer?

Where was his concern for fiscal responsibility when his banks were leveraged 50:1?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 23:04 | 292557 Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

The bomb has already gone off.  There is absolutely no way to "claw back" all of the excess liquidity that has been created.  Even if the political will existed to tax the top 10% at 90% for the next ten years and we all know that ainta gonna happen.  Gutting entitlements and raising taxes on the middle class wouldn't be enough even if it wasn't political and economic suicide.  Ben knows what he has done, the headlight on the big black frieght train is clearly visible.  He is simply making this statement so that history will show he was not taken by surprise, that he did, after all, try to sound the warning.  Pffftt.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:42 | 291978 InsanePonziClown
InsanePonziClown's picture

yeah right, ben, u go first, roflmao

 

funny article

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:44 | 291983 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

And you guys have ridiculed me here because I buy front-month SPY calls every month for the past year and wildly profited...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 15:52 | 291996 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Sounds like Tyler's beginning to channel Leo...

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 16:04 | 292014 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

(sarcasm on) Nah Tyler 400+ trillion of derivatives is BULLISH.  They provide LIQUIDITY.  ROFL (/sarcasm off)

 

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 16:06 | 292020 Psquared
Psquared's picture

This is the most bewildering market I have ever seen and I have been doing this for over 20 years. (Which admittedly is not very long compared to some of you.) Almost every stock, including worthless penny stock companies that nobody likes, have a turn at this. Then there is weekly rotation from small caps to large caps back to small caps. That does not include the monthly rotation into and out of Chinese stocks and into and out of bio-techs, chipmakers and retail.

The way to play this is to look to see what report will be issued tomorrow and figure out what sector it will benefit. It doesn't matter if the report will be good or bad, but just a report that will impact some company in some sector somewhere in the world. Then buy those stocks like hell on the close and sell them 48 hours later when they tip over.

Fundamentals don't matter, charts don't matter, volume doesn't matter. Any report will do - no points for neatness.

 

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 16:14 | 292038 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Never in your 20 years has the Fed doubled the size of its balance sheet with crap MBS.  That is all there is too it.  $1.25T of MBS money flooding the markets is going to drive up the price of everything.

Capital misallocation at its worst.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 17:46 | 292160 Psquared
Psquared's picture

I agree. But then, and this is the kicker, does that not mean that when all of that ends (and it already has begun to end) the market should come down - a lot?

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 16:13 | 292037 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Gallows humor rises as a country's integrity falls.

Thu, 04/08/2010 - 21:10 | 292375 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

HISTORY TODAY

Try and imagine what the history books will say about these times:

Following the unprecedented loss of economic wealth in a record breaking asset bubble created by a combined lack of monetary restraint, Wall Street regulatory capture and institutional "shadow fraud", the Obama economy followed equity markets relentlessly skyward into an era of unrivalled wealth creation and global influence for America, surprising her principal rivals in China who were caught totally off their guard. This utopian period of magical economic performance is now well known as the "Great Affirmation of Greespan" or GAG.     

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