Bullish Views From Barron's Roundtable
A summary recap of the bullish groupthink gripping the Barron's Roundtable. As David notes: "The emerging consensus is that everything is just going to be fine and that we should expect nothing more than a second-half economic slowdown, and that if there is a sharper turndown the monetary and fiscal spigots will be turned on even harder. The market is seen no worse than fair-value. Treasuries remain the enemy."
The age old question rises: with everyone bullish, who is selling?
- Felix Zulauf: “Cyclical forces are bullish … the market probably has 10% upside from here… my next recommendation is to short government bonds.”
- Abby Joseph Cohen: “We think global growth won’t be too bad in 2010 … we’re forecasting S&P 500 earnings of $75 to $76 this year and $90 next year.”
- Fred Hickey: “The stock market will likely be up this year, unless the dollar collapses.”
- Scott Black: “I figure S&P 500 earnings will be closer to $66, which puts the market at 17.3 times earnings, about the historic norm.”
- Oscar Schafer: “Liquidity and another stimulus package will keep the market up.”
- Marc Faber: “The S&P 500 won’t revisit the March 2009 low of 666 in nominal terms ever again.”
- Meryl Witmer: “Fifteen times earnings seems about right for the market, and earnings could grow a little this year … fair value isn’t so different from where the market is now.”
- Archie MacAllastar: “I’m an optimist, I expect the S&P to earn $75 to $80 this year. Public participation will increase.”
- Mario Gabelli: “You’ll be up 5% to 10% in the first half of the year … interest rates at some point will top 4%.”
- Scott Black: “The underpinnings of the economy aren’t quite as bleak as everyone thinks.”