This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Buried Deep Within The Files That The Federal Reserve Released On Thier MBS Purchase Program, We Found TARP 2.0!!! More Taxpayer Money To The Banks!

Reggie Middleton's picture





 

About a year ago, after hearing so many pie-in-the-sky perma-bullish
pundits and bankers say how banks paid every cent of TARP and government
assistance back, I went on the following rant – 10 Ways to say No, the Banks Have Not Paid Back Their Bailout from the Taxpayer! Monday, January 18th, 2010:

Yes, some of the banks repaid TARP,
with interest and warrants. Okay. The investment big banks (that were
still in existence) were offered expedited financial holding company
(bank) charters. That is why they didn’t fail, at least in part. So,
running down the list, the banks paid back TARP. That’s a +, but….

    1. What was the value for bank charter, to get cheap access to the Fed’s funds? did they pay back this value yet? No!
    1. How about the payment of interest on the banks’ excess reserves at the Fed. Have the banks repaid that yet? No!
    2. The Fed and the Treasury have purchased hundreds of billions of
      dollars of Agency debt, Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and
      related securities through Treasury purchase programs. Have the banks
      paid back the capital behind those purchases yet? No!
    3. How about the Term Auction Facility? Has the capital behind the benefits of that program been paid back? No!
    4. Then there is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), has this been paid back? No!
    5. Do you remember the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)? Have the funds behind that been paid back? No!
    6. What about the PPIP? No!
    7. Hey, there’s the Foreign Exchange Swap programs (the currency
      swap lines, that saved not only our banks but out banks facing
      counterparties who were short on dollars), has that been paid back? No!
    8. There’s the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), have the funds behind that been paid back? No!
    9. Most importantly, the opportunity cost of ZIRP, which
      hurts those who do not speculate (or have not speculated) with near
      free money! How do you pay that back to grandma and her .017% CDs?

Well, all rants aside, if you bothered to go through the mass dump of
data that the Fed produced as a result of the Bloomberg FOIL suit, you
will find that not only did the banks not pay back the massive amount of
assistance that was given to them, they were actually granted more in
the form of MOPTARP (MBS Overpayment Troubled Asset Repayment Program),
and yes, I did make that up. How much more? Well, potentially more than
the original TARP bailout! I’m getting ahead of myself though, so let’s
backtrack.

As we all know, we had a credit and real estate bubble that first
lifted then toppled nearly all of the major US banks. Apparently, none
of the gurus on  the Street saw this coming (the very same gurus who now
say we are in recovery and the worst is behind us), save a tiny coterie
of truth seekers (Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?).
The downfall of the banks was basically binging on inflated, junk
assets using excessive leverage at the top of a big bubble. The
government used the alphabet soup of programs to bailout the banks, but
the mainstream media focused primarily on TARP of about $750 billion,
which kept everybody’s focus off of the real money that ran well into
the tens of trillions (listed in the 3rd paragraph above). The
government then agreed to buy many of the aforementioned junk assets off
of the banks using programs that I warned were truly suspect. Now that
we have caught up to recent history, let’s move on…

These mortgage and real estate related assets are of very little
value to anyone outside of  vultures and speculators looking to purchase
them at a deep discount, despite the fact that the government has
overpaid for them continuously with taxpayer monies. Bank of America is trying to sell $1 billion of toxic mortgage assets, and these assets have already been written off,
which goes to show you have bad they want to get rid of them vs trying
to work them out to achieve maximum recovery. Maybe the bank has come to
the same realization that I have been espousing for years, that there
is little to no effective economic recovery to be had.

For more on collateral behind trash mortgage assets on banks balance sheets, see:
  1. The
    3rd Quarter in Review, and More Importantly How the Shadow Inventory
    System in the US is Disguising the Equivalent of a Dozen Ambac
    Bankruptcies!
    Wednesday, November 10th, 2010
  2. Banks,
    Monolines, and Ratings Agencies As The Three Card Monte (Wall)Street
    Hustlers! Its a Sucker’s Bet, Who’s Going to Fall for it in QE2?
    Tuesday, November 9th, 2010
  3. The Truth Goes Viral, Pt 1: Housing Prices, Economic Sales and the State of DepressionTuesday, October 5th, 2010
  4. Pay Attention to the National Association of Realtors and Their Chief Marketing Agent At Your Own Risk! Monday, October 4th, 2010
  5. and most importantly, Those
    Who Blindly Follow Housing Prices Without Taking Other Metrics Into
    Consideration Are Missing the Housing Depression of the New Millennium.
    Monday, October 4th, 2010

Subscribers have access to all of the data and analysis used to
create these charts, in addition to a more granular application, by
state in the SCAP template and by region in housing price and charge
off templates – see

About a month ago I explained that “The
Robo-Signing Mess Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg, Mortgage Putbacks
Will Be the Harbinger of the Collapse of Big Banks that Will Dwarf 2008!

and literally days later Bank of America was hit with a massive $47
billion put back request from investors. The CEO vowed to fight the
requests, but now seems amenable to settle. What do you think all of the
other investors will do if or when this bank (or other banks) cave
without a fight? Now we have Bank of America negotiating with PIMCO over $47 billion of put backs:

Bank of America
Corp., after vowing to fight requests that it repurchase certain loans,
has begun potential settlement discussions with some of its largest
mortgage investors, according to people familiar with the situation.

The group discussing a possible
settlement with the nation’s largest bank as measured by assets
includes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, government-owned
mortgage company Freddie Mac, BlackRock Inc. and Allianz SE’s Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, a unit of Allianz SE.

The approach appears to be a major shift in strategy for Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan,
who in November pledged to engage in “day-to-day, hand-to-hand combat”
on investor requests to repurchase flawed mortgages made before the
U.S. housing collapse.

Now, what is really the value of these securities and assets that
Moynihan is trying to dump so aggressively? Let’s look at the Fed’s
recent disclosures to find out. The asset buying binge that we are
focusing on today was aided by the Public/Private Investment Program
(PPIP, see Reggie Middleton’s Overview of the Public-Private Investment Program). The “stated goal”
of the Public-Private Investment Program is “to strengthen capital base
of financial institutions and enhance their ability to lend, ensure
efficient price discovery of legacy assets by involving private players
and minimizing the risk to taxpayers while providing opportunity to
private players to earn sufficient returns.” I have raised concerns that
this program is actually a backdoor bailout and would enable sole
sourcing in lieu of open market, competitive bids. Thanks to Bloomberg’s
FOIL suit against the Federal Reserve, we can now see how correct I
have been in my warnings and proclamations regarding funny business in
the MBS markets. Let’s take a look see.

The Government’s MBS Purchase Program

As we highlighted in Reggie Middleton’s Overview of the Public-Private Investment Program,
price discovery has to occur at a natural level for a sustainable bull
market which was not a prominent feature of the PPIP. In “Reggie Middleton on PPIP, part 2 Thursday,
March 26th, 2009 I gave explicit examples of how collusion and price
manipulation could take place in the absence of true price discovery.
Fast forward to today, and we find that the Fed’s newly minted MBS sales
disclosure page states that “Outright [MBS] purchases were conducted via competitive bidding to ensure that trades were executed at market rates.” However, according to a paper (h/t EB from ZH)
entitled “Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve / Did They
Work?“, written in part by NY Fed SOMA Manager, Brian Sack states that “Because
the MBS purchases were arranged with primary dealer counterparties
directly, there was no auction mechanism to provide a measure of market
supply. Instead, the pace of purchases of each class of MBS was adjusted
in response to measures of whether that class appeared relatively cheap
or expensive. To avoid buying at excessively high prices and to support
market functioning, purchases were increased when market liquidity was
good and were reduced when liquidity was poor.
” Sounds like
somebody’s stretching the truth a little, doesn’t it? Well, I dug a
little farther to see just who that somebody may have been.

The truth swept behind the 340,000 data item spreadsheet, buried
beneath over 70,000 transactions and over 10,000 MBS-only transactions
reveals….

We have conducted analysis on all MBS sale and purchase transactions
conducted by the Fed whose data was recently released. Of the total
10,058 MBS transactions, 72% were done at a yield of less than 5% (5%
below yield of 4.0%, 32% between 4.0%-4.5%, 35% between 4.5-5.0%) with
an average yield of 4.75% on all MBS transaction. The table below
presents the number of transactions under their respective yield
category.

We have also analyzed the yield on MBS purchased and MBS sold,
looking for price discrepancies between MBS purchased and MBS sold. The
data points out that the average yield on MBS purchased was 4.71%,
29bps lower than average yield for MBS sold, thus implying MBS purchased were at a higher price than MBS sold. You know that old government adage, buy high and sell low!

Yield on sale: 5.00%
Yield on purchase: 4.71%
Difference in bps: 29.1

Assuming a 4.0% implied yield on all securities, 95% of the MBS securities were purchased at a premium to market value
while assuming 5.0% implied yield 28% of securities would have been
purchased at a premium to market value. Of course, the question remains…
Why pay a premium to market value at all (with even .01% of total
purchases) in a distressed and downtrending market with highly
questionable collateral? Had the government/Central Bank followed the prudent man rule
and paid a slightly higher yield (avg yield of 5.0% instead of 4.75% –
basically a discount for the assets as is called of in distressed
buying), it would have saved $62bn of tax payers’ money on MBS
transaction while a 6.0% and 8.0% yield would have saved $391bn and $869bn of tax payers’ money, respectively. Please keep in mind that Ex-secretary Paulson’s initial TARP request was for a mere $750 billion.
One could be rest assured that the private sector using its own money
at full recourse will be looking for steep discounts, unfortunately our
fair government was all too generous.

Other observations

Deutsche Bank with $411bn of trade volume, had the highest MBS
transaction value followed by Credit Suisse at $383bn and Morgan Stanley
at $280bn while Canto (4.55%), UBS (4.60%), Nomura (4.61%) had more
favorable yields compared with other banks (average yield for
transaction was 4.75%) The table below presents information on MBS
transactions and yield for each participating financial institution.


All paying subscribers should feel free
to download the scrubbed and analyzed data for all banks, primary
dealers and investment managers here: File Icon Federal Reserve MBS Purchasing Analysis.
I have made it easy to go through the data by sorting through the
340,000 or so data points for you and putting them in a neat little
Excel model. Those who are interested in subscribing should click here.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 12/16/2010 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

I apologise if the following question appears ignorant but... "How is the Fed purchasing toxic assets off banks an instance of taxpayer money being used?" The Fed is not a federal body after all. I can see that the taxpayer suffers as a result of the programme since money supply is inflated and hence it is a form of indirect taxation (inflation)...what am I missing? Wiser heads assistance is  greatly appreciated.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 19:00 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Every time the FederalReserve creates $1-trillion dollars they reduce the value of the holdings of citizens [and all other dollar holders] by $1-trillion dollars.  Presumably most dollar holders are taxpayers.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Confuchius
Confuchius's picture

Absolutely the best ever, Reggie!!

 

Confuchius

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

Thank you for the extra work on this one. Great job.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 17:29 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

Reggie for Fed Chair

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Trailer Trash
Trailer Trash's picture

Reggie, You're the man!  Excellent research as always.  We at the ZH community are fortunate to be provided with your fine analysis. 

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:56 | Link to Comment GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Great work, as usual Reggie. Thanks for all your diligence. Even though too few of us are listening, it sure is nice to hear someone put some of that "chicken roosting" residue on they bald head where it belongs.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:53 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Absolutely top motch as ever. Big Thanks for sharing.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:41 | Link to Comment honestann
honestann's picture

Good work, Reggie.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:19 | Link to Comment The Rogue Trader
The Rogue Trader's picture

As always, thank you Reggie...

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:16 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Did someone say heteroskedasticity ?  How in hell did the Fed com up with the pricing ? The ratio of hair to warts on last night's hooker's back ?

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:32 | Link to Comment littlebuddy
littlebuddy's picture

THAT is awesome. hair to warts. goddamnit, i hope to remember that one forever, but, yeah, reg, you're the best...i mean...wow....

think ima go find some silver...

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:18 | Link to Comment beastie
beastie's picture

"The ratio of hair to warts on last night's hooker's back ?"

That's a keeper.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:16 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Dupe

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:13 | Link to Comment George Washington
George Washington's picture

Go, Reggie, Go!

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:14 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

That "settlement" with PIMCO et al is only if they do it before 12/18 which is the end of the 60 day notice that the PIMCO letter served. 12/19=The Real Shitstorm.  

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/full-text-of-letter-to-bofa-from-ny-fed-maiden-lane-freddie-mac-pimco-western-asset-mgmt-neuberger-berman-kore-advisors/

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:06 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

I don't care about any of that as long as they don't let any of the  Banksters out of the country before trial.  Freeze their passports (including the ones from that other country be they dual 'citizens') and their personal assetts.  Oh, and don 't shorten the trials, we want full access to all the crimes in detail.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

The coup is over.  Only a handful of Americans understand what happened...

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:50 | Link to Comment onlooker
onlooker's picture

Well written. The explanation of terms in your text is invaluable and the understandability is good. For the less than sophisticated reader like me, the message looses effectiveness if it is written in a complex texture. I am not saying the subject is easy or simple, but your presentation of it makes it more understandable. I hope you can keep at it; there is an absolute void for many of us to understandable access of information.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

OMG someone with rational and clear thought.

Great write - up and interview Reggie.

Question:

Is dancing with the starz on tonight. ?

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

Financial Atrocity

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:40 | Link to Comment beastie
beastie's picture

"Deutsche Bank with $411bn of trade volume, had the highest MBS transaction value"

The funny thing is, based on my personal observations, via realtytrac.com Deutsche Bank was more than willing to take a 50% haircut on their holdings. Some zip codes allow you to look at the mortgage data behind individual properties.

Well it's not funny really

 

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

good job Reggie, as always

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:33 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Thanks Reg but unless your name is Jim Kramer and you're on CNBS, no one gives a shit... get it?

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:44 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

Thank you, Mr Reggie. Well done. And WE notice at Zero Hedge

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:27 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

good interview reggie

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:23 | Link to Comment shushup
shushup's picture

Great info Reggie. Thanks

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:12 | Link to Comment DavidRicardo
DavidRicardo's picture

You're finally getting around to digging through the data to see that I am right: there will be $70 trillion in bailouts.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 16:43 | Link to Comment 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

+1

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:22 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

we are being robbed

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:50 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the only law being practiced in this country is criminal. I didn't think I could get more pissed off. I'm having gyros tonight.

Thu, 12/16/2010 - 15:30 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

whats this being robbed.? they have long ago put the gun to the head,

now they are after the scraps....

the gang of pundits and lap top junkies have cowered in the Keynesian corner for so long ,, most have not a pot to pizz in .

and then on top of that this board is infected with those who would dish the gold silver movement ,

still time to protect some assets get off the grid ,, gold silver.. 

the banks and fed are base criminal outfits .. all after those last scraps

 

 

 

 

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!