This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
A Butterfly Flaps Its Wings And The Market Goes Up...
No, this is not some new age chaos theory mantra - it is a direct observation of what has recently been, and continues to be the primary source of funding for the market: the ES is now following the 2s10s30s butterfly tick for tick, as stocks no longer have faith that Central banks will do everything in their power to preserve the Ponzi regime. So any move in the butterfly's wings result in an immediate HFT mediated ramp in stocks, which in turn pushes all other risky pairs into the stratosphere. And yes, today will be one of those days where Mr. Brian Sack of the FRBNY's open market manipulation committee, who unfortunately will not be able to make the Jackson Hole meeting this year due to "market conditions" on Wednesday through Friday, will do all in his power to get stocks, bonds, gold and oil all up, now that the economy is confirmed to be in a depression. Incidentally, all those who hope the Fed will announce QE w this Friday, will be disappointed. (reference: Jim Hatzius comments from last night).
»
- 11170 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
1070 - 1090 would be sweet, an excellent October animal spirits shorting opportunity : )
Butterflies, bitchez
I just joined this group on linked in "High Frequency Traders". I got the invite from a friend at Morgan Stanley. So for those who are interested in some extra info :)
http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=1820642&trk=fulpro_grplogo&goback=%2Efps_zerohedge_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_*1_Y_*1_*1_*1_false_1_R_true_CC%2CN%2CI%2CG%2CPC%2CED%2CL%2CFG%2CTE%2CFA%2CSE%2CP%2CCS%2CF%2CDR_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2_*2
I hate LinkedIn with a vengeance...
Everyone on LinkedIn should be executed along with the HFT traders.
I love the discussion groups :)
Linkedin sucks ballsack.
Apparently housing numbers are irrelevant...
As are durable goods shipments.....-1.5%.
When are you guys going to realize that news do not matter when there are lollipops to steal from hapless retail traders? ;-)
Sucking them in.
"No really this is cyclical, this is the bottom..."
The Black knight is guarding the bridge.
apparently everything's irrelevant...
This is the stuff that crashes ARE made of.
DavidC
+1 But I admit that on other days I think its going to be a slow grind down. But those are the only two scenarios that I see: A series of Flash Crashes or a slow unwind into the cellar.
While I realize stocks might be slightly "oversold" over the past few days, the news this morning was atrocious. Capital spending was weak, and this one of the last legs of the bulls getting knocked out from under them.
It's sort of sad to watch the market rally now. REIT's, retailers, etc.? Sad to watch the slow rolling over of our capitalist system.
Bots also been triggered @ 1037 (-61.5 equal leg moves down from the 5th of Aug ES# symmetrical's Quants)
Next drop takes DOW below 9800, they just suckered in another set of dummies to push the market green before the crooks start dumping again.
dems start to admit nothing to show for trillions in debt
http://www.nationalreview.com/battle10/244695/bennet-bombshell-trillions-debt-nothing-show-it-michael-sandoval
The great, unsinkable luxury liner is slowly going under, creaking and moaning as it fights to stay above the waves. . . but going down she is.
Trichet expected to discuss "Orderly Insolvencies" from Jackson Hole...
Orderly ?
Is that guy crazy? Has he heard about cds's?
The leverage within the european banking system would make John Meriwether blush.
Merkel's team has been working on this since May...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-04/merkel-s-coalition-steps-up-cal...
Wow. Thank you SpaldingS & CarbonM for reminding us of the sheer colossal size of the tilting edifice of debt. The tower is so magnificently huge that neither we, nor our policy makers can fathom its wobbling scale. Only that we are squarely in its shadow, and it is clearly tilting this way...
Ground Zero, Bitchez.
Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.
Funny you should say that - I was just making the same analogy this morning after having watched an old Star Trek episode :-)
I was thinking more along the lines of Chronicals of Riddick.
There's barely even an effort of keeping up of appearances anymore that the stock market has any relation to reality.
right but there are a whole slew of "traders" that like to comment and tell us that the market is not supposed to have anything to do with reality and that we are all just idiots with lollipops to be stolen.
That is called the Technical Analysts, which have no clue what reality really is. They only know Stochastics, Fibonacci, and MACD.
Yes Redpill, the complete and total abandonment of any concern of appearance of honesty anywhere is completely out the window, clueing you in to the magnitude of horror of the false flag events they have planned for very soon.
I see you....
Hello...Clearly this is an afternoon kiss (with tongue), expression of confidence, for the current administration.
After all Obama, took time from his busy vacation schedule on Martha's Vineyard, to hold a conference call with what is left of his economic team (Romer was on the call but one wonders if she was actually humming "nah nah nah hey hey goodbye").
"The economic team provided an update on the next steps to keep the economy growing, including assistance to small businesses and the extension of tax cuts to the middle class," the White House said in a statement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2514806720100825
Hey Liz, I bet the real meaning is reversed. When they say small, it means LARGE. Ether that or assistance indicates destruction.
Given how the local regulator is threatening the firm I work @, I fear the "good" fate of small businesses is spoken for... all hail Banana Republic.
One only wishes WH would look at the history of our Southern neighbors of the last 150 years.
Poor guy. He's going to miss the J-Hole party, even though he's staying behind merely to be the "backup" behind their primary market mover (this guy):
LMAO!!!! Nice. Except this time we don't have a fat Homer to contain the nuclear/toxic explosion.
Larry Summers?
Or maybe Larry Summers' big fat brain?
Of course, don't forget to scale Larry Summers' brain by an "Ego" coefficient (should be good for Nx where (N > e))
Please forgive my ignorance but could someone provide any reference I could use to understand the '2s10s30s butterfly' - Many thanks from an Embarrassed but hard working NOVICE
2s10s30s is a reference to the 2 year, 10 year and 30 year US Government issued debt. The Butterfly is probably a butterfly spread, but I am thinking the spread is within the 2, 10 and 30 year notes betting one issue will move faster then the others...
Good Luck...
Thank you very much batting500 for your assistance - It is greatly appreciated!
2s10s30s is a reference to the Treasury yield curve. The 'butterfly' is a add-on since the Fed POMO is buying on the open market again. QE lite, if you will.
It is a sarcastic reference, all in all. Historically, when the bond market rallies (yield curve flattens) then stocks go down and vice versa, in our 'new normal', however, when bonds rally, stocks rally. This is an anomaly for which there will be hell to pay ... later.
Very well said for the former part.
As for the latter, assuming 'later' ever comes. I dont think it will. Everything to infinity + beyond.
ZeroPower, kinda like this? 0**-1 ?
- Ned
Watching the ppt hold the ground above 10,000 reminds me of General Custer's last stand at Little Big Horn.
Custer ran out of bullets. PPT? (psst-push that button, need more bullets). - Ned
Do not worry, Oil is down $10 bucks in 2 weeks, Monsanto,Vale still tanking. We are heading to S&P 900 very,very, soon.
Nice job from the PPT team, so Bennie doesn't
lose face tomorrow. Wash,Rinse,Repeat..
Can't have the market down when gold breaks 1240.00 and silver breaks 19.00.
Another POMO tomorrow. Just getting a reset for the next ramp in treasuries. :)
One can feel their desperation today, trying to hold the 10,060 level on Dow, 1055 ish on S&P.
DavidC
These damn correlations keep poping up in what would have been considered the strangest of places. Natural progression fulfilled.
total control by CRIMINALS
enemies of mankind
scum of the earth
EUR/JPY bitches
total control by a program the authorities are NOT interested in shutting down
INVESTORS HAVE ZERO ROLE IN PRICE DISCOVERY
there is no price discovery, only price fixing
CRIMINAL
the way these guys have been batting recently anything above 0 is a win
I don't know about the butterfly thing but the usual explanation from bloomberg is (drum roll please): U.S. stocks advance amid speculation that the recent drop was "over done".
it must be difficult for the boys at cnbc bloomberg and yahoo business to come up with inane things to say on a daily basis it must be very taxing
Yea, this is yahoo finance's top story line:
"Stocks Recover in Later Trade, Following Weak Data"
In other words we have weak data so the market is going up. Idiots all of them.
HFTs have been clicking on at 1,040.
Always remember this before you trade...the government is "always" and "everywhere" trying to separate you from your money.
I thought it was the Bitchez & Hooooos.
as stocks no longer have faith that Central banks will do everything in their power to preserve the Ponzi regime.
This is inaccurate. They have lost faith that the central banks will continue to print (in exponentially larger amounts and/or with remote predictability), but ceasing printing is exactly what will prolong the ponzi the longest... not the ponzi as a whole of course, in the same shape and form, rather most of it the longest... (the parts held by the VIPs the longest). Obviously each way they turn ends in hyperinflationary depression, but the conclusion of one path takes longer to reach.
Behold the PPT motherfuckuuhhzz. Distorting markets, inflating and popping bubbles, stealing your savings and 401k, and serving the interests of TPTB since 1988.
"Hahaha, PPT? Every time some "doomer" comes on here, they bring up the PPT. Please, no conspiracy theories." The cnbc anchor looked like he just ate some liquid fire; he could've used his tie to be loosened.
"I misspoke, my apologies," said the guest, ready for the ear-holing, "What I meant to say was, '[B]ehold the President's Working Group on Financial Markets." He looks the anchor square, "I think you had me on a technicality before, it was duly noted."
the cover name is the President's Working Group on Capital Markets, created as you say in 1988 by Reagan's Wall Street handlers in the wake of the LTCM debacle.
Note the correlation between the deepening level of corruption due to the placement of ever growing numbers of bullion bank cronies into every meaningful regulatory position, and the expanding use of bogus means to continue to animate a walking dead thing these crooks created. So that Blythe Masters and the entire Syndicate don't have to miss even a single Hamptons Summer.
Crooks in desperate situations do ever more desperate things. That's what we've seen take place since 1988. F*ckers can't help themselves; snakes slither.
LTCM went down in 1998.
Savings & Loans, LTCM, it's all the same...
10y @ 2.55. It has climbed in a straight line from 2.42 earlier today. So many incredibly straight lines these days.
it's not all conspiracy.
would you want to hold the bag for bonds when more massive government intervention and ensuing hyperinflation is seriously on the table?
miners and oil& gas companies should do well going forward.
Does teeth whitening work on pot stains?
Reply to: PPT FNBNY
Hilarious mate!
Closed my shorts today. There's irrational exuberance and then there's insanity.
Gold and especially oil might shoot up here. Oil for so many reasons, like ME crisis, dollar devaluation, increasing demand from China..
If oil shoots up it will lift all boats again.
QE could possibly be announced this weekend or some variation thereof.
Japan is intervening. They don't want to finish last in the currency race to the bottom.
China is mulling more stimulus. They can afford to.
UST calling for a jubilee on its debt, at least partially.
Anything can set this casino on fire.
(gets popcorn)
I smell a spike in oil prices too.....
RUS2K doing some funny stuff, the vix loses (really??? really.), Oil corps testing the bottom of their recent (respective) ranges, silver moving against the grain at a clip for the record.....yep...get ready people.
"And if the roofs on fire...let it burn. I ain't about the monie, I ain't concerned."
the vix loses (really??? really.)
Indeed sir, right down to support. Gotta reload! :) You see the asset managers get taken to the cleaners today? Ouch!
DXY zeroing in on an inflection point. What's it gonna be doe'la? You going to try and punish the Pound or Yen? Try for round 2 on the Euro? Or are you going to tap? Just tap and save some face, will ya.
The Yen is too fucking strong. It's killing what is left of the Japanese manufacturing economy.
Government and central bank are in deep shit. They're going to overreact.
Why do you think the US Fed or UST have any interest in pushing the USD higher?
It's a race to the bottom.
I hear the markets reacting to the oracle from the penitentiary Benard Madoff buy on the dips recommendation.
They should give him conditional parole so he can be the new Social Security Administrator. He can repay his debt to society doing what he does best, running massive ponzi schemes.
Wow we have had over a 20 point move up from the low on no good news...or any news for that matter. This reeks of manipulation and synthetic hopium. Possible good shorting point will be tomorrow afternoon.
Hyperinflation, bitchez!
One thing's for sure: people really, really don't want wheat today. I wonder if there was some breaking news about gluten intolerance or something.
a ban on all lead based ammo?
http://www.regulations.gov/search/Regs/home.html#docketDetail?R=EPA-HQ-O...
They really don't give a f**k as the rest of us only own 12% of the stocks -
http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html
They forgot about Reagan's urination theory.
It's a fake market. 20 years of hype, Fed rate cuts, Fed QE, and it still needs a 24 hour PPT staff. I aint buying nothing.
Let me enlighten you, 2s10s30s is merely a proxy for 10yr rate.. So what you are saying is intraday moves in stocks and in rates are correlated again? Is that really such breaking news?
Article is very interesting,thanks for your sharing.I will visit this site.welcome to my site!... cheap site hosting
windows web hosting
windows vps hosting
windows vps