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The Buyers Pour Into BP
What has been one of the best performing stocks for the past week? Good old BP (BP), which clawed back a 25% pop off the bottom, a 20% gain from my “buy” call at $29, against a 0% move in the SPX, giving you an impressive relative outperformance of 25% (click here for “Is It Time to Buy BP” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/june-17-2010.html ).
Those who heeded my advice and bought the pariah stock can now reach into your inner wimp and book a tidy two week profit. I suspect, though, that if you’re a BP player at this level, you are anything but a wimp, and are in possession of a pair of brass balls.
It turns out that all of a sudden, the world wants to buy this company while there is blood in the street and oil on the water. My old clients, the Kuwait Investment Authority (Hi Walid!), and at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (call me Ibrahim!), already big owners, have expressed an appetite. So has that well known value stock player, Libya, where BP is the biggest foreign producer. Other sovereign buyers from China to Singapore to Saudi Arabia have been lining up, as well as a bevy of US hedge funds. The company announced that it had no need for a secondary equity issue, taking a lot of selling pressure off the stock.
It turns out that half the oil that is reaching the surface is evaporating because it is so light (click here for that analysis at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/june-22-2010.html ). Surprise, surprise! The formula is simple: C8H12 + H2O + NaCl + O2 +hv = lots of happy oil men, environmentalists, beachgoers, and shareholders. That cuts the potential liability a lot.
This is still not for widows and orphans, who already extensively own it in England much higher up because it was considered such a “safe” company. Guess what the next big headline for this stock will be? They cap that sucker, which could happen in a matter of weeks in a best case scenario. That would make the stock soar to $40 or more.
If you are worried about the morality of making money from this predatory company, you can always donate your profits to a “Save the Whales” campaign.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two and a half years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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Ah, the oil is still leaking if you didn't know... We have now felt a whopping 22% of the total impact this spill will have on the US. You're all a bunch of compulsive gamblers that don't really care about the enviornment or America for that matter. Go ahead and load up on some more BP crack, but when you find out the truth it will be too late! SUCKERS
The environment is all hype
I honestly don't give a flaming fiddlers satanic demonic fuck about the environment. I drained the oil in my truck right into a storm drain before.
The amount of oil that naturally seeps into the ocean adds up to more then any humans have ever put in it.
Bp is the biggest oil local producer for the biggest oil market.....I read an article that is difficult for the US consumer to boycott and still fill thier hummers....some value in there...just how much is the question. Covered calls anyone?
Gutsiest move I ever saw, man....
While you're at it, may as well buy Enron at .03 a share.
MHFT is always right today. Tomorrow - not so much. He's a guy who camps out at Lake Tahoe with the minivan crowd when he's not jetting around the world in his fictitious Gulfstream. I think he's a bit confused about his identity.
MHFT = Big Time Name Dropper = FAKE
Probably some unemployed basement dweller.
KIA likes to keep its name out of the news. If they are a MHFT client, I would think they would not be pleased
Remember the old cowboy lies? Trucks paid for, won the belt buckle in a rodeo, just helpen' the sheep over the fence?
Your retirements safe, your dollar is sound, and BP risk is limited
BP legal liability will make asbestos claims look contained. Every drop of oil BP produces from here on out will go into the coffers of lawyers and lame (and some not so lame) liability claimants.
Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh. Had not heard that one before.
I read yesterday that Elena Kagan was a huuuuuge fundraiser for Harvaaard and one of her biggest donors was the lawfirm representing BP, BP owns Obama, BP apparently owns Kagan (presumed by their donations), and bought Feinberg (he must be operating under their terms with their money) they (BP) apparently have all their bases covered, in the end though you have to sell BP to collect your profits.
Sorry, I ain't buying the rumors...
Would make a great short if it ever gets to 40.
So the sovereign wealth funds are circling - are they looking at BP stock, or BP assets (particularly non-US)? Big difference. You could easily see a ring-fence BK of BP US, and a liquidation of non-US assets. I think they bailed on the bond offering (or any other public offering) because they weren't going to be able to write a prospectus with the risks section. "It's possible that the relief well will not work and the entire find could leak into the GoM for the next decade." Or, "It's possible/likely that we will be sued for 30+ years for any cough/sneeze/birth defect in the GoM in what will be called the Gulf Oil Syndrome, some of which will be true claims."
BP as a trade (ride a contrarian pop) and an investment are two very different things.
"If you are worried about the morality of making money from this predatory company,..."
Morality doesn't really seem to play a big role for people whose main goal in life is to get something for nothing.
"It turns out that half the oil that is reaching the surface is evaporating because it is so light"
Oh, friggin fantastic. Was this intended to make me believe that the environmental effects are mitigated because it's not sitting on the surface? Well, I guess we're fine then, because there is no chance that things that evaporate eventually precipitate!
50,000 barrels a day evaporated into the air and thus ONLY 50,000 barrels a day into the water.
And I thought this was problematic...Thanks for clearing that up Mad. I feel a lot better. Wish I was in Florida.
Here is a better short than BP.
Citrix Systems CTXS just lost a major patent desions which encompasses most of their key products. Huge blow for Citrix , not really out there yet althought 01 Communique is up over 100% and climbing.
01 Communique Provides an Update on its Patent Litigation with Citrix Systems Inc.
7/8/2010 11:00 AM - Canada NewsWire
TORONTO, Jul 8, 2010 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX News Network) --
(CTXS:NSDQ)
01 Communique Laboratory Inc. (TSX:ONE) today announced that prosecution of the inter partes reexamination of its United States Patent No. 6,928,479 is now closed. The United States Patent and Trademark Office ("USPTO") has issued a Right of Appeal Notice concluding that ALL of the claims in the inter partes re-examination, that were challenged by Citrix Systems, Inc., are patentable.
There are 46 claims of invention ("claims") contained in the patent of which 25 were subject to the inter partes reexamination and 24 of these claims were asserted by 01 as infringed by Citrix. The Patent Examiner has reaffirmed the patentability of all 25 claims in the Right of Appeal Notice.
"We are very pleased with the outcome of the reexamination," said Andrew Cheung, President and CEO of 01 Communique. "The conclusion of the Patent Examiner reaffirms our conviction that all of the claims asserted against Citrix are valid including all of the independent claims which have been found to be patentable as originally issued. We believe that our patent is not only infringed by GoToMyPC as presently asserted in our litigation; but also GoToMeeting. We are confident that Citrix will be held accountable for its infringement all the way back to the time of the patent's issuance in August 2005. We will be meeting with our professional advisors over the coming weeks to determine our next steps in enforcing our patents."
Patent Litigation Update - The background of our case against Citrix is as follows. In February, 2006 we commenced legal action against Citrix for infringement of our patent. A copy of the court pleading is on our web site. A claim construction hearing, commonly referred to as a Markman Hearing, was held in November 2006. The claim construction order establishes the meaning of the patent claims terms in dispute between the parties. In the Order, the judge adopted the construction asserted by the Company for 19 of the 20 disputed terms. In March 2008, the judge issued a memorandum and order staying the case pending the inter partes re-examination of the patent by the USPTO, which had been requested by Citrix. That reexamination has now been concluded, subject to any appeal.
A copy of the Right of Appeal Notice should be available within the next few days on the USPTO's web site at http://portal.uspto.gov/external/portal/pair. The application number is 95/001018.
The Toronto Stock Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or the accuracy of this release.
About 01 Communique
Established in 1992, 01 Communique (TSX: ONE) is an innovative force in the development and delivery of remote access and support products and integrated communications software. 01's suite of products includes its remote access product line I'm InTouch (www.imintouch.net) and its remote support product I'm OnCall (www.imoncall.com). For more information on its products, visit www.01com.com or call (905) 795-2888 or (800) 668-2185 (North America only).
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements.
Certain statements in this news release may constitute "forward-looking" statements which involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the company, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. When used in this news release, such statements use such words as "may", "will", "expect", "believe", "plan", "intend", "are confident" and other similar terminology. These statements reflect current expectations regarding future events and operating performance and speak only as of the date of this news release. Forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in the company's Annual Information Form filed on SEDAR. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this news release are based upon what management of the Company believes are reasonable assumptions, the company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this news release, and the company assumes no obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances.
SOURCE: 01 Communique Laboratory Inc.
on its products, visit www.01com.com or call (905) 795-2888 or (800) 668-2185 (North America only)
Copyright (C) 2010 CNW Group. All rights reserved
I would hazard a guess that this decision could cost Citrix several hundred million in damages plus lost revenue stream from use of the patent going forward.
Buyout rumors
Exxon Mobile or Royal Dutch Shell
I've been saying BP is in play since Obama started throwing lawyers at the problem. I also believe it is in the best interests of the British government to protect British BP stockholders against US entities looking to sue it to zero. Remember, there is no "special relationship" any longer. Some sort of sale of non-US assets with maybe (if possible) some kind of preferential treatment shown to Brit shareholders is one way to go about it.
I'm going to short it.
Plenty of stock available to do it.
I recommend that all of you do just the opposite.
This is a guranteed winner, better even than those only other two sure-fire things, death and taxis on a rainy night.
What happens if they can't "cap that sucker".
In these times it is not a bad idea to at least think the unthinkable.
At what point in your amazing career was the KIA a client?
Wait, let me guess, this is when you had Double O status for MI6?
looks like someone bot a block of 1.75m shares @ 10:45; hoping for 36ish to short
uh...BP capping that sucker was "already priced in"
To go along with the mantra of "better than expected" - "hope" - "good employment numbers" - "no double dip" and my favorite "operational earnings".
It's All Good!
hey, give him credit. he was early (I bought mine around $27), but right
Let me guess. You got a lot of BP stock to unload, right?
I've been telling you all along that this spill is grossly over-hyped and propagandized. I live exactly 120 miles from that well and for three months I've tried to find oil on our beach and so far have found none. BP's ultimate liability is going to be a lot less than people think, even Reggie Middleton. I don't need to convince anyone, just come down here and look for yourself. So far they've found less than 1,500 dead birds and maybe ten fish in three months of non stop Armageddon propaganda by the leftist, greenie, anti oil media- the same media that gets rich selling ads for SUVs.
Your check is in the mail, baby.
BP Public Relations
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The stock was deeply oversold and due for a bounce. But, even if they capped the oil volcano tomorrow, the damages will be in the tens of billions. However, the relief wells are hardly a sure bet, and even if they succeed, oil will still be pouring into the gulf for months. Just wait till the rest of the lawsuits arrive. As far as I am concerned, I would be dumping stock on this suckers rally. Better yet, I hope it goes to 40 so that I can short sell at a better price.
Disclosure. I bought BP at 37.88, sold at 33.75. Also, i do not give a rats f@ck about BP and will open a bottle of Dom when I hear that the CEO is in jail.