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Bye Bye Dow 10,000, Hello Dow 9,999

Tyler Durden's picture




The Dow suffers biggest one-day point drop since April 20, biggest percentage drop since July 2. At least demand for Treasuries is there.




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Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:05 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

for a couple of seconds, the print was 9999.99

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

In a related story, Leo Kolivakis was seen standing on a ledge, clutching a bottle of Jack Daniels, and yelling, "Why God? Why?"

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:22 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

CNBS reporting that Dow 10,000 was defended by a massive buy of solar stocks heading into the bell....

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:32 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Ahh solar stocks... i think CNBS means PPT buying hopes are dreams made with sunshine, rainbows and star dust.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:53 | Link to Comment BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

Don't forget the unicorns....and maybe leprecuans, but never the forget the unicorns...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:21 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

you guys are kinda mean! boyz will be boyz, i guess.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

What, you were expecting little feathery pink boxing mitts and spangly protective jock-straps...in the FIGHT CLUB????

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:35 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

+ oh i forgot! i sure don't think like marla.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:37 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Only kinda mean? Darn, i was looking to be fully straight-on pissed off with a hint of downright feeling ripped off.

If you re not angry then you are not paying attention.

Speaking of which...

Are you there yet?

 

Are you ready to finally pull out all your funds from banks and Wall Street?

 

Sell off all stocks/trades?

 

Perhaps even go on a labor strike with your co-workers and picket your State government?

 

Or are you just sitting there like a good sheeple?

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:48 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

done

done

and done

don't work, no co's but marched on D.C. in the 60's when we were still free.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

(Rocking avatar, wish I'd thought of that.)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Oh leave Leo alone. The sad part is, some of us begged him to be careful, etc.

 

Lets hope he makes out okay or inly slightly burnt.

 

Be nice--we're all friends, aren't we?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:09 | Link to Comment delacroix
delacroix's picture

solar tech is a good investment, just not now. they will be a good play, at 1/3 of their current price

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Girl you change your avatar like I change my hair colour.

In fight club, how you know you just met your best friend is s/he gave you two fat lips, a black eye, and a rapidly thickening left ear.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:39 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I read the book on the plane 2 days ago.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Hey I got a new look! See, you gave me advice and I took it! :-D

Of course it doesn't show well in this wee format...o well. At least I finally got the change in and at least I don't look like I have facial hair any more. No more Sirs for me...

How'd you like the book? I'm a complete sloth and have yet to read it, but it's on my MUST list. (sigh, has been for some little time now)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:24 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Do you have a link to the pic in question?

I do like that you don't look like a dude!

I liked the book pretty well. Read it in an odd context, I followed it with a book called "Sacred Demise" by Carolyn Baker. Not done with it yet but it makes great points like "stop trying to prevent collapse and instead be present with the collapse" stuff like that. So Fight Club, read on that plane trip, looks like an extension of the collapse movement. But it was not written to be that. It has, however, taken on a life of its own. It is worth your time.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 03:02 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

I have been thinking about your term 'the collapse movement'. I don't know what that means but it sounds intriguing! Can you expand?

I will look for a link to the pic...I don't think it's your style since the pic is not very sexy and well, you just seem like sexy is part of your style! It is for me too sometimes but when it comes to the world of finance, 'macabre' and 'insane' are more me so...it's a pic of a young girl, mouth and hands covered in blood, eating...what? could be raw meat, could be her own flesh. Very OECD.

The whole 'Renfield' thing with me is that most of the time I sound like I'm off my rocker (or so my friends & family say, my enemies prolly worse) and it's the complete opposite of what people like/want. Fair is foul foul is fair kinda thing. Hence, my pic gotta reflect that somehow.

I'd like to hear about 'collapse movement' though...In vain I have been trying to find a copy of Strauss & Howes 'The Fourth Turning'. It looks like I must break down and order it online. But the bits of it I've read online continually fascinate me, that the different generations go thru the same cycles over and over.

Anyway. Collapse movement...Google doesn't turn anything up which is hardly surprising given the terms...is that your own portmanteau term for something?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 06:38 | Link to Comment perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

You know, when the only way out of this mess is politically not possible, then you say to yourself, "Gee, why not just let the whole shebang go to hell, and we'll just have to start over again from scratch."

I think that's the collapse movement, and that maybe I agree with it.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 07:06 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

If that's the case, I think a lot of Americans, Brits, and Europeans are part of that movement.

Aus and Canada have been last to get the memo, but will be showing up to the party later. Hopefully not being sweet and polite.

Despite all the complaining on blogs about American apathy, I love Americans b/c they have the good sense to be ANGRY. (Not the government. The people.) They're blogging, youtubing, shouting the truth from the rooftops, walking away from mortgage prisons in droves, driving the corporate propaganda MSM into bankruptcy, and throwing out incumbents in Massachusetts. It's not enough of course. But at least it's a start.

Wish my people were at the point you guys are. Hate being a day late and a dollar short when we should be breaking windows and burning cars by now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:05 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

"The world I see -- you're stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You climb the wrist-thick vines that wrap the Sears Tower. You see tiny figures pounding corn and laying strips of venison on the empty car pool lane of an abandoned superhighway."

 

- Tyler Durden

You see, a reset is better than incessant performance reviews, mortgage prison, property taxes, speeding tickets, American Idol, late fees, and the fear of living on the street someday. Not to mention Nancy Pelosi's smile.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Gawd Nancy Pelosi. When I first started watching her and studying her the bullshit layer of what she wears as a cloak just makes me laugh now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Leo still doesn't have solar at his house and still doesn't know what a PPT charge controller means. So I'll make fun of him till he USES THE SHIT HE BELIEVES IN.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

With the converter right out of the box I can see him with the polarity fucked up and warranties voided - even though the warning is plastic mold injected right on the converter.

They make a 13W briefcase panel that's good for travel once you have to put all your belongings in a shopping cart like Viggo in The Road. Keeps your rechargeables full.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:47 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

He'll finally buy a 10kw system and watch it fry from a huge coronal mass ejection that will be amplified many times from haarp as they sit there and experiment with shit they don't understand.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:40 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Ha! Good one.

The sun has been quiet lately. Maybe it's waiting for LK. Or maybe it's saving itself for the 200th anniversary of Tchaikovsky's inspiration:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2W1Wi2U9sQ

What will happen in 2012?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:33 | Link to Comment lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

But his balls were on the table, flattened like small pancakes.

Send him syrup.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:38 | Link to Comment AR
AR's picture

DH / Mozy on back over to that previous Berkshire thread we had. I left you another position regarding the 30-year (cycle work). An old timer once told me "...that liquidation drives markets..."  We're seeing a lot of this today. Markets always seeks out ways to hurt the weakest hands the fastest. Recently we've been noticing the markets are over-extending levels in almost every case, only to stop and aggressively reverse, stripping away profits in hours or days (of which, normally would take weeks or months). Vol is expanding. Most managers are paralyzed. MORAL: When you make money in this market, take the money -- period. Hang in there. We'll talk...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:06 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

will do...thx AR

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:20 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

mr. head wondering if this is of interest to you.

http://blogs.nfl.com/2010/02/04/the-who-rock-the-halftime-show-news-conf...

pete and roger does rockin news conference.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 08:54 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

i'm looking forward to The Who at halftime....i like a lot of their stuff....hope Pete plays his old Gibson SG

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:05 | Link to Comment TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Does this mean I shouldn't buy anything because I did.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:10 | Link to Comment tenaciousj
tenaciousj's picture

Based on the perpettual dip theory, I'm pretty sure this means you should be buying everything across the board.

Can anyone confirm this??

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

During a rally, the Buy on the Dips Theory works.

In a bear market, it turns into the Martingale System.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

the market is a mess, so newbies stay out. If you are asking for advice like this, you probably shouldn't be playing at this time.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:37 | Link to Comment tenaciousj
tenaciousj's picture

I should have turned my <sarcasm> flag on :(

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:18 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

:)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:06 | Link to Comment ATG
ATG's picture

9970 Dow Mini to be sure...

http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:07 | Link to Comment abalone
abalone's picture

Trust Burnanke to ruin a ZH good news story

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:11 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Never fear, Bernanke is here.

"Bernanke will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America."
-- Jim Rogers

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

Ever notice Bernanke's tendency to LIE.....

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:34 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Bernanke is not a liar, he is simply doing as his masters tell him to (the Rothschilds, Morgans, Warburgs, etc). See

www.save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html

 

You may enjoy reading http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/ben-bernanke-pleads-for-his-job-my.html

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

Well aware of that -  http://yophat.blogspot.com/
And those guys love a deflationary spiral (all assets roll back to the creator of the debt/money)!

Which goes back to helicopter Ben being a LIAR!

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They like his beard.  It reminds them of a mandable.  No lies can be told without one.  Besides, they don't use theirs.  They would rather just have the skull and crossbones ;)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:35 | Link to Comment abalone
abalone's picture

'Merry is the hall where beards wag all'

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 00:19 | Link to Comment Steve Dallas
Steve Dallas's picture

Don't forget the Queen, the Gettys, the Vatican, Aaaaand Colonel Sanders (before he went tits up.)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

No, no lets reuse our underwear and socks, this way we will feel green and at the same time helping country!!!!!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:10 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

NOW CRAMER CAN   TELL

THE  SHEEPLE , THIS IS A FANTASTIC

OPPORTINITY  TO BUY THE INDEX AT

A DISCOUNT  !!

GO TEAM GO  !!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:12 | Link to Comment TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

He's already been covering his ass by saying that 2010 will not be like 2009.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

No, he said "sell sell sell" on Friday, before the bounce, and then yesterday he was on twisting the head of a teddy bear saying that the "game has changed for the bears" and mocking bears in general.

The best way to make money is to go against anything he says.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:57 | Link to Comment E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Don't forget his awesome call to buy GS at $157.

"I am calling the bottom!" Honk Honk

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Honk honk indeed.  That fucker should ride a unicycle and juggle bowling pins.

Did you notice that he hasn't made one bearish call since the beginning of the downturn?
The bear button he pushes is my favorite, but he hasn't pushed it in like six weeks!  I'm like "push the button that goes RAWR!  PUSH IT!"

BAC going to 35!  MOOOO!!!  Buy buy buy!!!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:42 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

"That fucker should ride a unicycle and juggle bowling pins."

Let him catch knives...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Yea! I get to wear my hat again!

Also, long SDS, TWM, and ZSL as of yesterday (shorted the oversold bounce).

Nibbled on EEV today. Greedy?

As Rahm Emmanuel said "you shouldn't let a crisis go to waste."

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:22 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

No EDZ?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:37 | Link to Comment monmick
monmick's picture

He actually said a "fuckin'" crisis...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:44 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

I thought it was a "retarded" crisis...but I may have misheard.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:10 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He said, "My father says...."

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

If we can just get  a  few D.C.

Zombies  to make a few comments about

Stock Market "Health Care" on

TEEVEE  that should be enough to have the

Dow  around 9700  before Noon Friday !!

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Here's a little fun fact:

The last time the dow crossed the 100sma on the downside was June 2008, at ~12.5K.

It didn't cross it on the upside until April 2009, at ~8K.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:22 | Link to Comment digalert
digalert's picture

Can I get CNBC balloons and whistles with my 10k hat?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:26 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Only with verified MTLQQ shares.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Zexe
Zexe's picture

Deflation bitches!! this is the last time I am telling you

feels good to be short  Tyler this is vindication my man...

In a related story Cramer thinks "the industry (real estate market) could work its way back to boom level." http://www.cnbc.com/id/35218668  let's wish him good luck.

 

 

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:44 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

EVERY one of those bulls are bleeding red in that link...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:25 | Link to Comment RoastingBankers
RoastingBankers's picture

lmfaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Yeah, even though the Dow closed below 10000 at the bell, suddenly, it magically closed above 10000 after the close.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:27 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

OK so the squid is selling?

And the White House is looking for someone to blame it on.

And Obama decides to skip the EU-US summit.

Are the remnants of this administration starting to circle the wagons?

Sun, 02/07/2010 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WW III is commencing ladies and gentleman.  I say HYPE, but really, anything that can happen, will.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:28 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

At long last we have our first major indictment. You will be pleased to read Ex-BofA chief Lewis charged with fraud.
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said Thursday it was bringing civil charges against senior Bank of America executives, including former company CEO Ken Lewis, for their role in the company's controversial purchase of Merrill Lynch.

Can we please release the guys busted

for a little pot/etc and make sure we have

PLENTY OF ROOM IN  PRISON 

for certain "special creatures"

:)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

How about that haircut on gold and oil.....

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Gold to six thousand by the years end!  65 trillion dollars printed in the Spring!  The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!  Get your AK and plenty of .762 ammo, get some canned spam, and we're all going to die unless you buy physical bullion tomorrow!!!

GOLD BITCHEZ!!!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

LOL  Oil is highly overpriced also...filled the strategic reserve in Dec...boats sitting full in the ocean...refineries at 80's levels....and that's with Saudi throttling back production by 4 million b/d!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I thought I heard a story yesterday about refineries at the lowest levels that they've been at, and even some severely paring back production.

And yet, even though oil has been steadily falling... are our gas prices coming down at all?  Sadly, I don't see it.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:55 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

That's why the refineries are at 80's levels and Saudi Aramco cut production by 4 million b/d.....to keep prices up!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:19 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Just imagine what the price at the pump would be if they shut a  bunch of refineries down entirely.

Can't happen? You think not? With everyone used to $3/gal in the US, you think anyone would flinch if they shutdown 10% of capacity and went to $3.50 next week?

Wait for it. Just wait for it.

cougar

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

+1e6

And watch Iran.... Cut off the Straight of Hormuz and oil prices go exponential.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:15 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

hence the activity in somalia and yemen to keep that route open........

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:24 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It's hard to find someone that already knows we have troops in Egypt. People just don't get it. It would be easier to explain why Israel has nukes. Yemen is just another FedSpeak word at this point. It might as well be the name of an iceberg that just broke off of Antarctica. Fuckin' jihadist penguins - straight out of a James Bond movie.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

Damn I always thought The Crusades 2.0 was about spreading Democracy, err um WMD's, I mean bin Laden.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If you knew we were about to enter HYPERINFLATION you would put oil on as many damn boats as you could.  Also, they are pulling back production because their fields are running dry.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 16:12 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

That's a crock!  Saudi uses absolutely zero technology....basically thrust a straw in the ground and watch oil pour out.  When that changes....I just might start to believe you!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Zexe
Zexe's picture

gold will test $700...deflation is coming, gold will not escape...keep your dollars they will worth much more

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:40 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Try and buy PHYSICAL GOLD for that price even when some fantasy lalaland exchange declares that the price to be.

I'm 25% physical gold and adding.

Dollars? Bullshit. No funding behind it, no promise. Nada.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

You might want to wait to add until gold goes through its next downcycle.  Why leave money on the table?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

One word: supply.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

That pesky problem will be resolved when the next downturn shakes out the weak hands.

There will be plenty of supply.

Or wait... let me guess... half of the gold in existence is Tungsten, and so when people discover that it'll DOUBLE OVERNIGHT!!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:28 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I agree bates but it really depends on how much further you think the price can drop. I highly doubt that gold will get lower than 1000 and silver might, and I mean in the slitest, get to 13 but I bet it only drops to 14 and change at its lowest point. 15 is a good buy for silver and anything below 1050 is a great buy for gold.

The real name of the game is volitility and no one really knows what will happen but I think most of us know what really has value.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Well, people highly doubt that all assets will fall from the peak.  I don't know where it's going, but yesterday there were all kinds of people saying that the STRONG support at 1080 would hold.  Then I pointed out the descending triangle that broke today.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Burnie

Honestly, I could give a flying fuck about the computer price of paper gold. Or paper silver for that matter. :-)

Yes, make your paper profits any way possible...buy and sell GLD and SLV all day if it thrills ya. But for us at the end of the day, any paper we make gets rolled straight over into bullion. Paper is for playing, bullion is for keeps.

Once I understood that, I realised it's not really about the paper or the Kitco 'price' at all. It's about how much you can get, at whatever time you can afford to buy. When the 'price' drops far enough, there will be a lot of dealers going completely dark and when bullion gets 'cheap' enough, good luck getting any at all.

In the real world, I mean, not the fun-fun world of Comex numbers and Kitco charts.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I could careless of the paper price as well, but it does matter in terms of a buying opportunity. Regretfully I bought about 4200 dollars worth of gold and silver about 2 weeks ago and I could of saved myself about 300+ dollars by simply waiting. But alas how could I know people would be more concerned with the default problems in Europe than the US even though it seems the US is at greater risk?

But my points to bates was simply if he waits to long he wont be able to buy any gold or silver or at least not at a decent price. These markets seem to be extremely volatile, especially within the last 2 weeks. Gold and silver keep getting hammered but they also keep getting back up after each throw down. Gold seems to be like Rocky, just keeps taking hits and dishing it back out slowly but surely.

I think today like a couple weeks ago is just another indication that any day can flip like a switch and it could be at any day that the contraian dollar play flips and winds up back on its head.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Burn baby burn

Yeah, it's true, sometimes a few days can make a difference in how much you get. But, that's the investor's life, isn't it? Unless we are lucky enough to hit the exact bottom fiat price just before the upleg, we will always be leaving money on the table. After awhile we get used to it...altho the temptation to beat up ourselves after missing a better buy is there of course! Coulda got more bullion for the same amount of fiat...

BUT!

Richard Russell (who began publishing the Dow Theory Letters in 1958 which is still going) turned my whole world upside-down when he observed:

"The rich man accumulates and holds ten thousand ounces of gold. AT one point (such as today) his gold holdings are worth $12 million dollars. He's still rich.

"Then gold declines to a price of $700 an ounce during a crushing world deflation. Bankruptcies rule, and the price of anything and everything with debt against it has collapsed. At this point the rich man is holding $7 million worth of gold. The fellow is still very rich. Next comes a runaway inflation and gold climbs to $2,500 an ounce. Here the fellow owns $25 million worth of gold. Now he's almost embarrassingly rich, at least in relation to his neighbours.

"You see the point. In holding ten thousand ounces of gold, this fellow is always rich, but let's call it shades of rich depending on the economy. So the rich man isn't trying to 'beat' or 'out-trade' the gold market. He holds his gold as an eternal store of wealth through good times and bad...

"Conclusion - Learn from the rich man. Never mind today's price of gold; mind how many ounces of gold you own."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell010410.html

When I started measuring my wealth in terms of bullion supply, rather than paper, boy did I stop sweating the fiat loops. Now what I sweat is real supply, not fake paper supply, and can I get my hands on it before it dwindles too far out of reach for me.

All that matters is how much bullion we own and that's how rich we really are at any given time. (Well, also counting real assets such as a house, food supply, and so on of course.) The fiat price travels up and down relative to the larger markets; but the real price of gold stays the same.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 02:37 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Agreed, strangley as of late I have been thinking of it in those terms. I have even started pricing things in silver when I go to the store to buy something with dollars. I am always thinking "thats __# of silver!". Makes things change your perspective indeed.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

Unless they make it illegal and confiscate it all..... http://yophat.blogspot.com/2010/01/executive-order-fema-governors.html

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:48 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

And my point to you is, there will come a time when people want to get rid of all their gold, and then you'll see quite the decline in the price.

There's various reasons why this could happen, aside from currency issues...

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 02:33 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

A fool and his money are soon parted

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:14 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

That cycle could look a whole lot different this year than it did in previous years.

Nobody is dumping gold when all paper assets get dumped.

Demand from central banks is too strong for that to happen.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Nope!  Gold to test $1040 first.  And your solar doelarrs are worth less at DXY than in July, the last time the DXY was at 79, because...you ready?  Because gold was $911 then.  Use the graphs together, it works much better.  That way, you can see the WHOLE PICTURE! 

Banks use gold as their proprietary loan.  It will be the last thing they, and I, sell.  I will add, I think DJ vs Gold should be par, but I do not see Rockefeller thinking that DJ 700 is a good idea.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya when gold is worth 700 the dollar will be worth 1/10th what it was. If you want to ride an exponential collapse structure versus a linear collapse structure. You do that.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:50 | Link to Comment PenGun
PenGun's picture

 You want something a little nicer than an AK47. I can reccomend an F2000, FN's 21st centuary assult rifle. Lots of 5.56 NATO armor piercing would be good too.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

If things truly hit the fan, you'll want the AK because you can swim with it, roll it around in the mud, take a piss on it, and it'll still fire every time.

I DO have a gun that fires 5.56 ammo, but it's not the one that you talk about.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment PenGun
PenGun's picture

 A modern assult weapon is pretty hard to  jam. H&K makes their guns cycle full of toothpaste and the G36 would be a good second choice. The AK cycles because it is so lose. It is not an especially accurate rifle.

 

 The AK47 is a classic but someone withan F2000 will kill you from several hundred yards away with little trouble. A short weapon with sniper rifle accuracy. With 3 round bursts you are very dangerous.

 

 Now if you could score one with the grenade launcher and some 40mm grenades you are a one man army.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

I have a Bushmaster AR15 that is only semi-auto, but I'll convert it to auto if SHTF.  The only reason I don't is because it's illegal...

It's really accurate, although I can't say that I know much about guns.

I have an AK too, but I like the AR better.

I wouldn't even know where to get the grenade launcher.  LOL

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Hmmm... well I guess that that shows how ignorant I am!

I figured it'd be easier than that.  LOL

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:56 | Link to Comment PenGun
PenGun's picture

 The Belgium FN-FAL, probably not all of em', would do full auto by simply putting the safety in upside down. Another nice piece.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:37 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Full-auto is a waste. Battles are won one shot at a time, not spray and pray. Keep it on semi. Re-watch Unforgiven for an example of control.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Francis Dollarhyde
Francis Dollarhyde's picture

FS2000 is clunky as hell and has a trigger that makes the AK's tractor-factory trigger feel good. Also, lots of plastic parts around the vital feeding mechanism. Stick with a good AR-15, or a SIG 556 if you want a 5.56 rifle that takes standard magazines. And consider an AK or something else that fires a heavier round. 5.56 just doesn't have the muscle to get through walls and cars the way 7.62x39 or 7.62 NATO do.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:32 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

or a SIG 556

Um, exactly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9KLlAFDVI

But if you want to out-shoot the best of the best 5.56 shooters (> 250 yards) go for 7.62X51, not 39, Master Bates. More power than an AK and real accuracy. That is if you are serious. Sell your popguns and get the M1A.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 07:58 | Link to Comment PenGun
PenGun's picture

 You do need work done on the trigger chain, it's a bullpup after all and that plastic is polycarbonate and nylon. The F2000 takes standard NATO mags.

 

 It's nice to have a 30-06 along but it boils down to what you can carry. An F2000 or the like and a bunch of 5.56 lets you haul more raw firepower and it'll do for your close and longer range needs.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Which is why you want the M1A. It's 95% .30-06. 5.56 only satisfies @ <250 yards. It's a really fast .22, that's all - anyone claiming better than that has special shooting gear, patience, and a perfect day. People in battle don't have those luxuries - and if you did you would want a Barrett .50. 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:42 | Link to Comment lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

I called my bullion dealer and, after being on hold because there was so much activity, he reported that most of their activity was clients buyng hand over fist. And see Jim Wilie´s article on www.goldseek.com about the real scarcity of physical on the London and New York markets and other information never on the major media.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:31 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

All I care about is how many profitable trading days GS and JPM will declare they had in this first quarter of 2010.

If they have a close to 100% trading success rate now, the shit will hit the fan and buildings on Broad Street will burn.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:41 | Link to Comment NRGTDR
NRGTDR's picture

its inflate or die with the boyz in DC--as Robo points out in his gut busting posts---this is to get the herd going in one direction for a short term specific play--this pimp-n goes on every time there is a damn auction--you see a few days of negative news---next thing you see is a huge flash and if you lived---the mushroom cloud---then after a week or so...past the conclusion of a wonderful treasury auction---the markets are miraculously declared a rad free zone and the usual and now expected whipsaw-bottle rocket ramp game recommences....Right now I would love to be short the hell out of anything printed on paper and based on promises on fundamentals alone but the market no longer trades that way--so I opt for what I can guarantee will get me through the Thunder Dome and that's gold, guns, and gardens along with good friends.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:48 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

OOPS, my mistake

 

At long last we have our first major indictment. You will be pleased to read Ex-BofA chief Lewis charged with fraud.
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said Thursday it was bringing civil charges against senior Bank of America executives, including former company CEO Ken Lewis, for their role in the company's controversial purchase of Merrill Lynch.

Can we please release the guys/GALS/GIRLS/WOMEN/CHICS,ETC

busted for a little pot/etc

and make sure we have

PLENTY OF ROOM IN  PRISON 

for certain "special creatures"

:)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:56 | Link to Comment jc125d
jc125d's picture

I'll put $10 to win on #2 in Race #3 at Santa Anita. Neither the horse, jockey nor trainer has an MBA or complicated algorithmic hedging strategy.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 17:56 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

"   CHANGE  "  ,   :)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:08 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This time last year when the new administration took office they decided that this was not a debt crisis but a liquidity crisis.  Since then (co-ordinated world wide) there has been a stampede to liquefy the world, the likes of which we have never seen before.  We have witnessed a 50% rise in total sovereign debt worldwide (with Moody's estimating it will rise another 50% by 2014).  

One wonders if we are at the point yet where there will be at least some debate about the slight possibility that all along this was a debt crisis?  And that by framing it as one, we may actually start to deal with some of these issues as opposed to merely "extend and pretend". 

One can hope, that some point (despite the clusterfuck of the U.S political system) something will change.  Regardless of the fact that 18ms after LEH failed nothing has changed.  No new financial regulation, no way to deal with aig, fnm, fre, no accountability and no responsibility. 

 

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

I agree with 98% of what you said, but 18 months after Lehman one thing has changed: The private debt crisis has become a sovereign debt crisis.

Instead of TBTF corporations teetering on the abyss, we now have nations doing so.

Change we can believe in!

(OK yes, I'm aware that the bailouts began with Bush, and also that Obama is not responsible for the stupidity of other sovereign bailouts...it's just that the slogan is really so a propos.)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:01 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

+11 quadrillion

Change we can believe in was not only Billy C's, but Herbie Hoovers platform as well.  Back then pennies from heaven meant something.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:27 | Link to Comment moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

This is global pandemic, what country - left/right, communist/capitalistic, hasn't responded to this crisis by spending/indebting/printing money? Its a global race to the bottom. In US, its all about propping up the banks by not letting housing drop, but there is no HAMP, HOPE whatever etc..for CRE.

I guess things have to be really brutal before Wall Street doesn't get everything they want...we apparently aren't there yet.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Liz they aren't going to deal with the crisis because fiat money is the cause of the debt crisis. If they were going to be responsible they would pay of debts with objective assets (like gold) instead of fiat currencies which are debt instruments. Having a fiat currency is their greatest strength and weakness.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Lou629
Lou629's picture

Lizzy,

and they're not going to raise taxes either, lol. 

 Politicians of all stripes and their promises are all very much like that old joke about the three big lies, where #1 was "it's in mint condition", #2 was "the check is in the mail" and # 3 was "I promise not to come in your mouth."

Did you really think anything was going to change?  That was the one constant that i laughed out loud about all during the run up to election night in '08. 

As i told everyone i knew back then, it doesn't matter which party you're speaking of, when it comes to washington dc, politicians & election promises nothing ever changes, except for the name of the individual put in charge who fully intends to do a #3 in your mouth, or rear end, as the case may be. 

The whole process is laughable and nothing but  a continuation of their version of businesss as usual. 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:25 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

Magnificent Lizzy!

as to: Regardless of the fact that 18ms after LEH failed nothing has changed.  No new financial regulation, no way to deal with aig, fnm, fre, no accountability and no responsibility.

I would add to that it is even worse if for no other reason FASB 157 modifications as well as the FDIC's capital pass on FASB 166/167.  I know that you are aware of these matters, I just wanted to add this as it is my own personal obsession.

By the way, Stephen Colbert is going to take Canada down!!!!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:38 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

what, by being assistant sports psychologist coach for usa speed skating team, and trip or spit at all the canadians skaters, might work. canadians will give us a huge run for winning gold in most of the snow and ice events.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You have a way with words.  Extend and pretend is my new favorite term ;)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:09 | Link to Comment fluorideintapwa...
fluorideintapwaterisbadforyou's picture

either  next week or next month

Prozac Chemtrails  from coast to coast

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

My roomate's mom is a dentist.  I was ranting so she brought home a flyer on flouride.  At the top it said, "Flouride, Its safe!"  I thought, 'When I want to do something, the LAST thing I should be considering is if it is safe.'  I feel like everywhere I go, I am at a used car lot :( 

My days of jumping off of bridges is sort of over btw.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:29 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

Watch the Boomer pucker factor go sky high as the retirement melts away....not that it was really there to begin with.  Illinois is insolvent and has to kick out $64 billion in retirement money this year....they are looking for any outs...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 18:59 | Link to Comment PierreLegrand
PierreLegrand's picture

Strange that while the world collapses folks run to the dollar as if there is some sort of safe haven there and gold goes down. Makes no sense.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 03:10 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

It does when you look at who controls the price of 'gold' on the Comex exchanges... ;-)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Yophat
Yophat's picture

Good analogy I saw today on quantitative easing -

The Bank of England has called a halt, for now at least, to quantitative easing (QE). So it feels like a good moment to revisit an entertaining letter sent by Eric Keetch to the Financial Times last August:

Sir, In a sleepy European holiday resort town in a depressed economy and therefore [with] no visitors, there is great excitement when a wealthy Russian guest appears in the local hotel reception, announces that he intends to stay for an extended period and places a €100 note on the counter as surety while he demands to be shown the available rooms. While he is being shown the room, the hotelier takes the €100 note round to his butcher, who is pressing for payment. The butcher in turn pays his wholesaler who, in turn, pays his farmer supplier. The farmer takes the note round to his favourite “good time girl” to whom he owes €100 for services rendered. She, in turn, rushes round to the hotel to settle her bill for rooms provided on credit. In the meantime, the Russian returns to the lobby, announces that no rooms are satisfactory, takes back his €100 note and leaves, never to be seen again.

No new money has been introduced into the local economy, but everyone’s debts have been settled. Is this “quantitative easing”?

As subsequent letter writers pointed out, the conclusion that everyone’s debts have been settled with no new money introduced may appear correct at first glance, but the hotel is still €100 out of pocket because it has had to pass on the proceeds from the “good time girl” to the Russian guest. Nevertheless, an unquantifiable amount of anxiety may have been eased.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/richardpreston/100025039/if-its-farewe...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Hey Yophat

That'd work just fine if it weren't for 'the magic of compound interest'!

Unfortunately in that story, the hotelier took on the debt last Tuesday, the butcher partied 2 weeks ago, and the fallen lady last used the hotel last month.

By my count, hotelier needs to throw in a couple of plush curtains, and the butcher brought along 3 cows to his lady, who after that 'balloon payment' is still 200% underwater and will be working for that hotel manager for free, for years to come!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 19:31 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

your smart, i am going to follow you around!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:03 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

Stick around...most of the commentors on here make me feel like a dog staring at a chalkboard full of mathematical physics equations. ;-) But we will both keep learning and learning from this site!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:15 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

“hu hu hu hu hu ha”

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:44 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I follow her too. Does that make us cyberstalkers?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:58 | Link to Comment Renfield
Renfield's picture

But...but...you're one of the commentors I was referring to, in the dog-and-mathematics analogy...!!!

hahaha

I guess this is when it quits being a question of who stalking who and turns into just 'keeping company'.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

ms, we both used empty tampon canisters as pipes†

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 14:08 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Nice get up you got there Velolicious! TP rolls work the same way. I bike too, for what it is worth. I ride a Serotta Atlanta, steel frame with a carbon fork and Shimano components. She is a little old for the throw away culture, 2002, but she is good.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 21:25 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

your great. yeah biking saved my soul. been addicted since 1978. been on four usa national mountain bike teams. cat 2 road racer for 20 yrs. just like everything else in life now, it is all going down hill fast. do you mind me asking what part of the country you res/ride?

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I am in a flatter part of TN. We have some rollers, but no serious ups.

I have been out of it a couple of seasons now (I am still running and lifting weights, will use Trek hybrid to get around some), but I ride centuries, the MS 150, club rides, stuff like that. I fear I am not so athletic as you (competing would break my heart, I have that spirit but not the coordination), though I do get psychotic about tracking personal bests and I am a little too engaged with my electronic tracking devices. My hubby and I also have a recumbent tandem which is pretty cool.

My hubby has gotten into cross fit. Worth googling. What may look like going down hill, may just be training that is not being applied well. You may know this better than me. It seems intensity in short bursts, frequently, may be the fountain of youth. I am starting my own version of it and getting good strength gains. My hubby has biked for years (he is pretty dominant for his age group, only the 20 somethings and a few of the 30 somethings were as fast) and still had a pot belly. It is now melting away and a to die for sculpted hunk is emerging since cross fit. I'm grinning ear to ear, but know I better keep pace.

Look forward to seeing you around here. Renfield is an Aussie chick who posts from time to time who I enjoy very much. I imagine her to be such "trouble!"

Sat, 02/06/2010 - 22:30 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

fun, i am originally from ohio am familiar with terrain. moved to aspen colorado in 1969. so downhill was just part of life, now i am just old. that sounds so nice that you and your husband enjoy working out together, i can only imagine mscreant on a recumbent getting out on ZH. i just read one of your posts. you are a teacher? college or HS? i taught ceramics at aspen high for years. loved it. you must teach economics? i did the ironman in 1983, i looked more forward to the fourth event. my daughter was on the us ski team and did 4 x games. sports are my life, i am really addicted to playing golf, it is my zen. monumental news that louisville kentucky is hosting 2013 Elite Cyclo-cross World Championships. this is huge to get such an european sport into america, i am going. well there is the Who tomorrow @ half time to look forward to. everything sucks, but your in education and can enlighten those who can make a change.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!