This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Byron Wien's Prediction Track Record: Zero Out Of Ten

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Instead of wasting time with Byron Wien's Top 10 "predictions for 2011" we have decided to skip this latest and greatest worthless charade in prognostication, and instead we believe that presenting the list of what the man whose retirement age has come and gone, thought would happen in the past year, is a great example of why all these so called institutional Wall Street experts are nothing but two bit hacks. As may be expected, somehow Wien got exactly zero out of ten correct! The man is the contrarian indicator on Wall Street. Also keep in mind: it takes a lot of skill to be this bad.

Byron Wien Announces Top Ten Surprises for 2010

New York, January 4, 2010 Byron
R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Services, today issued his
list of the Ten Surprises for 2010. This is the 25th year Byron has
given his predictions of a number of economic, financial market and
political surprises for the coming year. He started the tradition in
1986 when he was the Chief U.S Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley.
Byron joined The Blackstone Group in September 2009 as a senior advisor
to both the Firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political,
market and social trends.

The Surprises of 2010

  1. The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real
    rate during the year and the unemployment level drops below 9%. 
    Exports, inventory building and technology spending lead the way. 
    Standard and Poor’s 500 operating earnings come in above $80
  2. The Federal Reserve decides the economy is strong enough for them
    to move away from zero interest rate policy.  In a series of successive
    hikes beginning in the second quarter the Federal funds rate reaches 2%
    by year-end
  3. Heavy borrowing by the U.S. Treasury and some reluctance by foreign
    central banks to keep buying notes and bonds drives the yield on the
    10-year Treasury above 5.5%.  Banks loan more to corporations and
    individuals and pull away from the carry trade, thereby reducing demand
    for Treasuries.  Obama says, “The suits are finally listening”
  4. In a roller coaster year the Standard and Poor’s 500 rallies to
    1300 in the first half and then runs out of steam and declines to 1000,
    ending where it started at 1115.10.  Even though the economy is strong
    and earnings exceed expectations, rising interest rates and full
    valuations present a problem.  Concern about longer term growth and
    obligations to reduce leverage at both the public and private level
    unsettle investors
  5. Because it is significantly undervalued on a purchasing power
    parity basis, the dollar rallies against the yen and the euro.  It
    exceeds 100 on the yen and the euro drops below $1.30 as the long slide
    of the greenback is interrupted.  Longer term prospects remain
    uncertain
  6. Japan stands out as the best performing major industrialized market
    in the world as its currency weakens and its exports improve. 
    Investors focus on the attractive valuations of dozens of medium sized
    companies in a market selling at one quarter of its 1989 high.  The
    Nikkei 225 rises above 12,000
  7. Believing he must be a leader in climate control initiatives,
    President Obama endorses legislation favorable for nuclear power
    development.  Arguing that going nuclear is essential for the
    environment, will create jobs and reduce costs, Congress passes bills
    providing loans and subsidies for new plants, the first since 1979. 
    Coal accounts for about 50% of electrical power generation, and Obama
    wants to reduce that to 25% by 2020
  8. The improvement in the U.S. economy energizes the Obama
    administration.  The White House undergoes some reorganization and
    regains its momentum.  In the November Congressional election the
    Democrats only lose 20 seats, much less than expected
  9. When it finally passes, financial service legislation, like the
    health care bill, proves to be softer on the industry than originally
    feared.  There is greater consumer protection, more transparency,
    tighter restriction of leverage and increased scrutiny of derivatives,
    but the regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are
    not onerous.  Trading volume and merger activity increases; financial
    service stocks become exceptional performers in the U.S. market
  10. Civil unrest in Iran reaches a crescendo.  Ayatollah Khameini
    pushes out Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in favor of a more public relations
    adept leader.  Economic improvement becomes the key issue and
    anti-Israel rhetoric subsides.  Talks with the U.S. and Europe begin
    but the country remains a nuclear threat.  Pakistan becomes the hotspot
    in the region because of the weak government there, anti-American
    sentiment, active terrorist groups and concerns about the security of
    the country’s nuclear arsenal

h/t Atierny1 and nolsgrad

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:10 | 845243 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Figures. What was Doug Kass's copycat score?

 

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 03:55 | 846009 NoLongerABagHolder
NoLongerABagHolder's picture

either he is about to go 10 for 10 this year, or we are setting up for a serious bout of deflation and market crashes based on his 2011 prediction.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:11 | 845256 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

That's pretty impressive.  I agree; not worth the time to go point-by-point.  Either some serious disinformation or horse's-assery; kind of a fine line there.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:35 | 845400 theXman
theXman's picture

Looks like complete wishful thinking.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:04 | 845437 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

If history repeats itself based on his 2011 dross then PM's are phucked and so are Russia, China, ag commodities, all Afghans that aren't zealots, oil, job seekers in the US yet the S&P will continue higher.

Based on this logic it appears he either decided a scattergun approach was due to at least get something right this year or he asked the work experience kid to cut out various headlines from last years news papers and turn them into a forecast.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:09 | 845699 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I love Zero Hedge.

But articles such as this make me love it more than I thought even I ever could.

Zero Hedge is among the few, select publications that just tell it like it is.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:55 | 845863 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

and, you're putting out some pretty decent reading also, etf.

nice to see some new talent coming around with something worthwhile to contribute to the conversation.

bring it on mofo.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845265 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Well, I ask, could that possibly have been written by someone who was drug-free?

 

Did he come off of any of it during the year or was he unbowed to the bloody end?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:44 | 845314 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Perhaps not high on something as much as low on oxygen to the brain.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:16 | 845269 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Oh, Jeez, I went and looked at the 2011 predictions.  Really, don't do it.  It's like Rick-Rolling yourself.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:38 | 845301 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No the JP Morgue is like rick rolling yourself. The Morgan Stanley is like u-u-u-ma'ing yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp88rTrz9oo

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:54 | 845419 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

wow... lol

19 really made me laugh. "9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance." Al-Q did not want their 'junk' messed with...

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:21 | 845620 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

That one got me too.  That's when I started suspecting I'd been had.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:19 | 845270 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

I believe Wien and guys like Kass call these "surprises", not predictions. I believe they're supposed to be thought-provoking ideas that should make the reader think "what if" -- rather than constitute accurate forecasts.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:24 | 845284 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

True enough. That's half, or maybe nearly all, the fun in such "surprises" or predictions.

On the other hand, my reaction, which I suspect would be shared by many others who read this site, is not "what if" but "This is a really dopey world-view."

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:58 | 845333 snowball777
snowball777's picture

No, they are "surprises" in the sense that those making the calls really think that they will happen and that they are particularly clever for having seen what others could not.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:19 | 845271 ReeferMac
ReeferMac's picture

Shit, he said gold will hit $1600/ounce in 2011. Does that mean I should sell mine?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845278 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

I think it means we should expect it to hit $3k.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:41 | 845305 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Shit morgan stanley will have so much counterfeit gold they'll be RICH!!!!! Millionaires!!!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 01:49 | 845926 poor fella
poor fella's picture

There's billions to be had - in a 4x pro tungsten ETF.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:40 | 845306 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Damn, which means Byron gets another 1/2 point because it will have to surpass $1,600 to hit the $3,000 bogey. Go Byron, go!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:21 | 845275 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Are we sure his predictions weren't intended to be sarcastic?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:24 | 845460 Julia
Julia's picture

Go and look in the mirror and get all DeNiro on yourself...You talkin' to me?

1000% sure.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:21 | 845276 spongeBOB
spongeBOB's picture

LOL....this is priceless ! I can't believ this moron opened his mouth again on public TV.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845280 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

The Crypt Keeper was a little off last year.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:27 | 845287 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Here you go you crazy bastards. I am gonna jump this thread and post my own year in review (Thomas is a pseudonym)...

http://forums.wallstreetexaminer.com/topic/921049-2010-year-in-review/

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:10 | 845447 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Thomas

I've always enjoyed reading your comments and you've put together a damn fine read (BTW, "can desalinate" is repeated on page 24).  You should submit this to TD as a contributor post.  Whatever the precipitating event/decision was, your move to precious metals in 1999 was prescient and very profitable (I say with a lot of well-meaning envy).  I could ask you a bunch of questions, but will settle for just this one:

 

I think the Law of Unintended Consequences, another maxim for the ages, will eventually corner us at the national level. The triggering event is unknowable, but my money is on a requisite defense of the dollar (raging, undeniable inflation) or rapidly rising rates on long-term treasuries.

 

In my way of thinking, defending the dollar means a contraction of the money supply (AMS) and, therefore, massive deflation.  Any thoughts?

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:57 | 845789 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Stemming inflation? deflation? Who knows? Volcker did not produce deflation despite a serious stomp on the brakes.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:20 | 845518 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Wait... you don't use your real name?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:59 | 845791 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Nope, and that's not my picture either. That's Mercury Girl!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:26 | 845821 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

I read the article you posted.  Very insightful.

P.S. this isn't my real picure either.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 05:07 | 846037 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

Well Thomas, that was certainly the shiznits.

Good read grizz.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 04:56 | 866604 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

Good stuff Thomas.  Been a pleasure knowing you online for 10 years now.  I have to agree on the gas stuff.  I'm hoping for one more deep bear market move and that will be a sector to take a sizable position.  I read the entire 29 pages.  Thanks.  

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:28 | 845289 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Almost unfair that you guys are passing on info this good for free.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:30 | 845292 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ~ Niels Bohr

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:25 | 845533 wilburpup
wilburpup's picture

I didn't know Casey Stengel was a student of Bohr's.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:39 | 845299 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Sorry, I think Byron deserves AT LEAST 0.5/10 for this nugget:

"...regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous."

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:45 | 845318 DisparityFlux
DisparityFlux's picture

Is he the Gomer Pyle of Blackstone Advisory Services?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:24 | 845462 Julia
Julia's picture

He's Goober.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 06:10 | 846050 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

No, more like the Chancy Garderner of finance.  You know, "spring is the time for financial planting, summer cultivation, fall the harvest, and winter, you know, discontent"  Get Wien one of those magic balls to help him improve his guessing.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:48 | 845320 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Solid bookings on CNBS for old Byron in 2011...

Keep up the good work.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:49 | 845323 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

You'd figure someone that homely would at least be smart.

 

Or stay home.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:52 | 845487 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Old Arab saying:  Praise Allah that when He made you ugly He also made you stupid.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:53 | 845324 anony
anony's picture

I was walking on a beach at 9 a.m. in the Bahamas back about 15 years ago with a rummy hangover from the night before and noticed a mini-bar/shed that served drinks at that hour and a dissheveled guy sitting on a stool waved me over saying that by the way I was walking, he thought I could use a bit of the hair of the dog. He had just the thing to cure me,  which was souped up bloody mary but it did the trick. We got to talking about things we thought would happen in the future and where we were right and wrong.

He said he had worst prediction of all time in his much younger days, he was 20 yrs old at the time. 

His prediction in  '60s?

The Beatles would only last 6 months.  Their hair was too long.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:55 | 845328 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The price is wrong bitch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnJQ9U9pW9Q

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:55 | 845330 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Byron Wien and Barton
Biggs have been morons
for years. Hard to
believe they still get
tons of press.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:29 | 845386 akak
akak's picture

With a bit of tweaking, that could have been a nice little poem.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:35 | 845398 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

 

With a bit of tweaking...

 

Smoking crystal meth is fantastic for cleaning your garage, but not for writing poetry. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:53 | 845413 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

[wrong place, wrong time]

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:39 | 845480 Julia
Julia's picture

I thought he was going for a Haiku and then quickly realized he was just hitting return.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:57 | 845331 anony
anony's picture

And Larry Fink wonders why his firm (with 12 trillion, yes 12 TRILLION under management) is not a household word like Goldman Sucks.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 08:27 | 846120 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Byron Wien is Blackstone. Larry Fink is Blackrock.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:01 | 845337 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

This guy is clearly living in a different universe.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:31 | 845394 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Yeah, those predictions would only make sense if the markets weren't totally rigged.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:06 | 845338 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

What a fine way to close out the year, put an exclamation mark on the performance of the PM sector.

Even though this year was one of the best yet for the metals the money flow into the sector is still only a trickle that could increase to a flood of cash seeking leverage to gold, silver, and mining stocks in 2011.

More people will figure out that the bull market is real and the overall economic recovery is fake.  Tipping point is exactly what is occurring in real time.

Despite a HARSH bearish bias in commentary, the frequent suggestion of a crowded trade, the metals are still largely ignored by the majority of the market participants. This is changing and as more individual investors decide they need to get on board the Cartel will only become less of a factor.

Think back a few years ago, when bear raids often triggered prolonged corrections. The defining characteristic of 2010 was the shift towards a market that stepped up to buy all dips, stuffing the Cartel each time.

What has changed is the growing awareness among investors that indeed coordinated manipulation has been a big factor in the performance of the PM sector.

The CFTC hearings in March, the contributions of numerous respected market commentators, and the work of GATA to document decades of corrupt and criminal trading, have combined to shine a light on all that is wrong with the market.
People are getting the message.

And while the individual retail investors are waking up the story it is the institutional money and central banks that are driving market today. 2010 will be remembered as the year that CBs became net buyers of gold. Recall just 2 years ago that the deep thinkers at GFMS implied that the limited CB buying back then was not even to be counted as 'demand' because they assumed it would be sold back into the market.

How stupid does this kind of commentary look today?

How do people think the CBs built up their inventory of gold holdings that accounts for the majority of all gold ever mined? This gold has been accumulated as the endowment of wealth for centuries, collectively managed on behalf of the people of the richest nations on earth. The stewards of this trusted stockpile of wealth have managed to destroy much of it in one generation through secret transactions and criminal policy.

The accepted spin for 20 years implied that gold was a relic and modern financial alchemy would suffice to build a brave new prosperous world. As the west stumbles from one crisis to the next, gold has retained its lustre and proven that its status as the ultimate currency remains true.

Does anyone doubt that the UK would have been better off to have refrained from selling nearly half of their bullion at the lows of this market?

And for what?

To protect a bunch of criminals caught on the wrong end of the mafia's derivative pyramid/ponzi?

What of all the tons of gold dis-hoarded by the European CBs over the last few years? And how has the IMF strengthened its role by selling finite gold holdings in exchange for infinite paper that loses value by the day?

The tide has turned.

Big and small, investors and institutions are coming to realize that gold is an asset to be accumulated, not sold. That wealth is preserved in the ultimate currency and not through endless speculation in paper promises. There are still many who claim that manipulation cannot be maintained on such a large scale for such a long duration.

Counter that with a million dollars was once a lot of money. Then it was a billion dollars that became the number too big to imagine. Now hundreds of billions of dollars, trillions worth of outright lies: a bullion liability represented by paper promises. The magnitude of this scam has risen to proportions that could hardly be believed 20 years ago.

Manipulation is unsustainable, but when such big players were able to carry on behind the scenes with such massive leverage, it just took longer to collapse.

A tipping point when the collective awareness is such that indeed the ability of a Cartel to rig the markets is coming to an end.

It is this awareness that will end the corruption, even as the regulators dither and the inventory at the COMEX and LBMA runs dry.

 GO GATA!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:19 | 845362 monopoly
monopoly's picture

david, you are right on with the thought that gold, silver, miners, etc. is not main stream yet. Of all the traders, investors and people I know only 2 have any physical gold or miner investments. Most look at me as if I am deranged. (well, that might be true). I cannot even get my own brother to invest in gold. He says this will all work out and heis keeping all his mutual funds, those managers know what they are doing. And since he is older, I just shut up.

Long way to go, me thinks. dumps and pumps, you bet, but keep a steady hand on the tiller.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:34 | 845397 chubbar
chubbar's picture

DavidPierre needs to start giving credits to the authors he is quoting from his "go gata" pieces instead of leaving the reader to believe he is coming up with these thoughts originally. I've reminded him of this before.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:24 | 845482 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

chubbar:

Bill* is going to be some pissed off if you go and blow his top secret operations...

I cleaned up his ChatRoom @ LeMet for him a couple of years ago... 

Shut that hot bed of... Lefty/Commie/Pinkos/9/11Truthers right down to almost nothing in only a few months...

  You might remember if you were there at the time ... not just a flaming newbie to false-flag, deep cover, conspiracy theory, WTF comments by anonymous posters .

My new assignment is in ZH.

DMR

{* 'MIDAS'... (like GOD) works in many mysterious and unknownable ways to influence mere earthly mortals.}

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:49 | 845566 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Been with GATA since 03', hardly a newbie. I don't, never did, participate in the forum over there. Didn't manage to catch your heroics of throwing 9/11 truthers off the forum. Random office fires frequently cause 47 story steel framed buildings to fall at freefall speed into their own footprints, no reason to question that at all (sarc off).

Why the fuck would Bill *, among others you have quoted from GATA, care that I ask you to be intellectually honest about whether the stuff you post on ZH is your analysis or someone elses?

Hell, even if YOU are Bill * himself, you can still give credit to the public author of record. It's just lame to take credit for work not your own.

Carry on with your new supra mortal mission over here on ZH, Mr Bond.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:06 | 845595 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Mexico Mike and Bill H. will surface on ZH when and if they feel like it.

As for...  "intellectually honest" ... hell that aint anybody's strong suit in cyborg space.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:49 | 845412 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Gold/Silver closed Friday at an all time high, a weekly closing high, a monthly closing high, an annual closing high and a decade closing high!

Has ANYONE talked about this? Have you even read one story about this?  And the media calls Gold a bubble, a terrible historical long term investment in relation to inflation, and a "gimmicky flash in the pan" all in one breath.

 "BULLSHIT"!

Gold should be HEADLINE news as THE BEST investment for the past decade yet it is not even mentioned.

HOW can this be a bubble? Very few investors own Gold much less are able to spell it nor even know how to buy it. Maybe plunk some money down and buy one of the "hollow/mafia controlled  ETF's? What a side splitter!

Gold a poor long term investment?

Do your own homework and look at the numbers. 

"Flash in the pan"? ... Where the fundamentals got better and better each and EVERY YEAR until they got to the point where even a 8 year old 3rd grader could understand them.

The fundamental reasons to own Gold and Silver have never been better than they are now, nor have they ever been so obvious even to the uninformed. 

 Washington, The Fed, Wall Street, their puppy dog media and "TPTB" LOSE, plain and simple. Their carefully orchestrated suppression scheme is falling apart and nothing that can be done that can hold back the flood of capital working its way down the aqueduct into the PMs!

 2011 will be "the year of the miner".

 The miners have already had one hell of a decade behind them but never ever reached the "mania" phase.  2011 will be the year where the coveted "3rd leg of the bull market" gets started and the mania of all mania's commences.

The miners have had to deal with all sort of "retardants", predatory lending which forced their hedging to advance projects, massive fraud in the metals markets, massive naked shorting of their shares. Yet here they are. They were THE best place to have had your money for the last 10 years and are just now breaking out over 2006 levels despite 1000's of fraudulent kitchen sinks being thrown at them.

Absolute fortunes will be made over the next year or two!

Austrian economists have been right for the last ten years regarding nearly everything financial.

The economy, the Dollar, the metals and miners, derivatives and the banking system, governments walking down the road toward insolvency, real estate etc. etc..

Not luck!, ...TRUTH... nothing more than honest mathematics and a little common sense. Not magic! No matter how much "fairy dust" The Fed and other central banks throw at the situation. The more "they" try to solve the "problem", the more PM investments will be proven correct.

 As long as you do not have margin balances and are able to stay the course you will be rewarded beyond many wildest dreams for having the foresight and intestinal fortitude to stray from the pack of lemmings that have already been off of several cliffs!

Hang tough... the fun part is right around the corner.

Viva LeMet!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:56 | 845421 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Are you perhaps claiming these words as being yours?  If not a link or attribution is in order.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:20 | 845454 nmewn
nmewn's picture

You noticed too.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:29 | 845490 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

I believe DavidPierre may be Le Patron of www.LeMetropoleCafe.com and the Chairman of the Gold Anti-trust Action Committee (GATA) http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal , a most worthy organization deserving your support. 

edit:  The first DavidPierre post was authored by Mexico Mike. It is his 2010 year in review which is part of tonight's missive by Bill on LeMetCafe.  BillH wrote the second piece - also in tonight's LeMet.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:10 | 845505 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

Mr. M, if that is you keep posting baby.  I used to get the Caffee for free, and some meanie cut me off in 2009.

Yours was always the very best commentary to ralley the troops.

Best regards in 2011 Bill!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:54 | 845417 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Like to make a citation to the Author?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:00 | 845581 DavidPierre
Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:48 | 845486 mr66
mr66's picture

EXACTLY!  I met 3 people over the holidays who worked at Goldline  and none of them had even one cent in the product they sell (gold bullion)

 

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 03:58 | 866552 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

I dealt with Goldline in 1998.  Me being naive, they sold me some real marked up crap.  Their buyback prices are really poor.  You want coin, you better really want them.  

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:03 | 845339 monopoly
monopoly's picture

How can any professional, no matter how incompetent be wrong 10 out of 10. That takes experience and a special person.

My goodness, how long will the inmates continue to run the aslyum. Beyond words.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:30 | 845709 akak
akak's picture

How can any professional, no matter how incompetent be wrong 10 out of 10. That takes experience and a special person.

I see you are unacquainted with the good (sic) Jon Nadler, the disingenuous and rabidly pro-bankster, anti-gold henchman, er, spokesman of Kitco, (supposedly) one of North America's largest precious metals dealers.  And Mr. Nadler is indeed "special". Very, very special.  Like a hemmorhoidal attack in the middle of a 30-mile horseback ride while suffering from a bad hangover is "special".

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:12 | 845351 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

Nobody with even a scrap of humility would dare publish a list of "Surprises" that he thinks are more than 50% likely after being wrong 10/10 times on his previous list.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:26 | 845736 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Nobody with a conscience, ethics, scruples or a redeemable soul.

So, yes, Byron Wiener dare publish such a list.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:18 | 845360 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Byron Wein -- late of the insider trading shop Pequot Capital.

Pfft. Next.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:21 | 845364 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

I can't even watch financial tv anymore it makes me go insane the way these people talk as the gas price now goes up daily not weekly

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:23 | 845368 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Maybe he meant that if any of those things came true, everybody would be really surprised.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:58 | 845427 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Maybe he was just giving a command and nobody conformed to his expectations. Probably because they aren't very realistic. Rich people are BROKE. What do power hungry people do when they are broke. They murder and rob. Lie and steal and cheat.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:25 | 845369 Art Vandelay
Art Vandelay's picture

"Byron defines a 'Surprise' as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is 'probable', having a better than 50% likelihood of happening." Alright, somebody check my math here: By his own definition, Wien would say that the likelihood of any one of his "surprises" NOT happening would be a maximum of 49% (let's round down). The odds of all 10 of his predictions being wrong, then, is 0.49^10, or 0.0798%. If he would assert that "better than 50% likelihood of happening" really means 60%, then the odds of all 10 of his predictions being wrong is 0.40^10, or just 0.0105%. So, Wien beat odds of up to 10,000 to 1 that he could be wrong on all 10 predictions, each of which he judged more than 50% likely to occur. That is some talent!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:59 | 845682 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

Only works that way if the predictions are interdependent in some way. Otherwise the odds remain 49.9/50.1 for each prediction. Stay away from Las Vegas ;)

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:25 | 845374 Genzero
Genzero's picture

And if the herd follwed his predictions while he did the exact opposite, someone would've made some good coin. But he wouldnt do that, naaaah.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:27 | 845379 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Watch the video “Economy Stage 4 Cancer Patient ~ Stocks Rigged” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrXcpWKRDf8).

Anonymous –

It’s unbelievable that it has gotten to the stage where we actually know without a shadow of a doubt that the U.S. economy is RIGGED! I can’t wait for the PONZI scheme to continue!!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:28 | 845387 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Not only was he wrong on #7, but those shylock motherfuckers at the DOE wanted 12 points for a DOE loan guarentee on the CEG-EdF reactor bid. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:29 | 845389 ljag
ljag's picture

It is people like this that somehow control the minds and pocketbooks of a lot of people. My brother is a programmer for a large military type corp. in the Phoenix area and can't be convinced that gold/silver are real money and all else is crap. A sister that is a head of a department at Wash. U. fails to grasp what is going on and insists her 'pension'/IRA are in fine shape. I get so frustrated I wanna cry sometimes. I have shoved countless articles in their faces only to be rebuffed and called an 'ex-druggie'.

Next yr. at this time, I will be wearing that badge with more than the usual amount of pride....but with a heavy heart.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:53 | 845416 JawsMusic
JawsMusic's picture

I hear the music and the people are still playing in the water.

They all think I'm crazy.......

One friend  is even planning to invest in CA condos, how much lower can they go arghhhhh!

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:46 | 845484 Cursive
Cursive's picture
@JawsMusic

Excellent choice of userid and avatar.  Highly original, give it a 10 on the chuckle-o-meter.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:54 | 845573 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

LMAO

 

let's get down to brass tacks, how much for the CA condos ?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 05:23 | 846040 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

send them a copy of the texas teachers pension fund.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:39 | 845405 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

0 for 10.  worse than a brocken clock.

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:07 | 845441 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

" worse than a brocken clock."

Perhaps you meant to type "worse than a broken cock".  That is what it probably would have felt like for anybody that followed this guy's reasoning.

It is amazing me how many people think things are fixed.  Unlike in 2006 you can still see way back in their eyes that they don't believe it but they are still spewing it.  Back in 2005 and 2006 there was no doubt whatsoever occurring in their minds.  Today you can tell there is doubt even if they are fighting like mad to hide it.  Personally, I love seeing their fear.  The smell is even better.  One big drop in the stock market and they will have their morning coffee running down their legs.  It is something to look forward to.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:41 | 845407 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

He thinks each of the events has a 50% probability so 0 for 10 is pretty pathetic. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:08 | 845443 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

My sister says she doesn't like to fly because you always have a 50/50 chance of being involved in a crash.  Shockingly, with incredible insight like that, she does not work for Goldman or Morgan.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:24 | 845529 steveo
steveo's picture

If the odds are 1 in a million that there is a bomb on a plane, and you bring one, then the odds of being 2 bombs on the plane are like 1 Trillion to one. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:05 | 845590 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

If the odds are 1 in a million that there is a bomb on a plane, and you bring one, then the odds of being 2 bombs on the plane are like 1 Trillion to one.

So does that mean if you get onto a plane with 2 bombs, you're unbelievably lucky?

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:30 | 845740 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Tell your sister that "Quantas never crashed," and that ergo, she can confidently fly Quantas knowing there's a 0% chance of a crash.

It will make her feel better, and she's statistically far safer flying than driving.

Win-win.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:46 | 845410 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I think this putz STILL has Cramer beat.  And besides, at least he didn't bash Ag or Au.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 01:18 | 845895 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:12 | 845448 Cow
Cow's picture

I think he gets points for humor.

"There is ... more transparency" 

That's rich

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:23 | 845458 WTF2
WTF2's picture

OMG LMAO WTF2  a perfect 10!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:27 | 845464 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

wow...  what a f**king Nostradamus.  I think Margie's Tarot Readings down the road could do better.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:10 | 845506 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

Thanks Tyler, he makes me look like a genius

 

  1. The Federal Reserve decides the economy is strong enough for them to move away from zero interest rate policy.  In a series of successive hikes beginning in the second quarter the Federal funds rate reaches 2% by year-end

LOL

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:27 | 845525 Arius
Arius's picture

what a pity...o out of ten - not sure even i can beat it - well thanks for posting and making us feeling better about our abilities...

actually even Cramerika gets it right once in awhile

incidentely, i watched him make the predictions on Charlie Rose and some NY Times reposter....the worse thing is that this guy might advise Obama - no wonder we are in such a great shape

good luck everybody we will need it!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:22 | 845526 steveo
steveo's picture

This is a bit commercial, but a really good deal on a good service, 25% coupon available for Breakpoint trades.     Been curious about if they are good, time to jump.   Never heard of them, time to get curious.

OH--and a channel backtest kickdown on ES Futures

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/01/slap-down-from-prs-100-channel-l...

 

 

 

 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:31 | 845546 Arius
Arius's picture

man i dont want to speak for others but w/ the supervision from CFTC (Gensler et al) people feel they have better chances gambling in casino then trading at exchanges...hope you dont mind me speaking my mind - no offense intended

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:31 | 845544 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

In fairness to Byron, he was right about the $80+ EPS for the S&P 500.  The rest was pretty abysmal, though.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 03:50 | 866545 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

That depends on what you call earnings.  Strip out the fraud and the $2 trillion subsidy through uncle sam and you might get $30

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:34 | 845550 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

O/T ... can someone please define "LBMA 2nd fixed price"

 

Thanks in advance.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:57 | 845577 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

I assume you mean the London AM/PM Fix?  http://www.kitco.com/london.fix.article.html

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:31 | 845872 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

email to me;

" Redacted "  is willing to purchase gold at a 10% to 13% discount off of the LBMA 2nd fixed price which according to today's market price ...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 09:16 | 846185 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

LBMA 2nd fixed price = London PM Fix

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:40 | 845557 thepigman
thepigman's picture

If every bulltard's top 10 predictions

are accurate and you bought today,

you're overpaying by at least 40%

on a historical basis. So the hell with

em....who cares?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:45 | 845562 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Fair value is way below 9000 on the

Dow or so, but I guess we're so excited

about a 2.5% GDP, we just can't

restrain ourselves. LOL.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:55 | 845575 thepigman
thepigman's picture

There must have been folks in the

old East Germany that got so excited

they were willing to a pay ridiculous

prices for a Trabant. We are there,

comrades. LOL

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:57 | 845576 TWORIVER
TWORIVER's picture

And heres why stocks will open higher tomorrow:

 

U.S. consumer bankruptcy filings rose 9 percent last year compared with 2009, reaching 1.53 million, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, which projected 2010 bankruptcies totaling 1.6 million.

 

Better than expected = BOOYAH!!!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:57 | 845578 SilverFiend
SilverFiend's picture

I need to get into the phony prognostication

business.  This guy is a professional dumb ass

of the first order!  The proverbial "They" should

print this dribble everywhere and this fool

should be forced into exile.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:02 | 845589 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Wish in one hand, shit in the other............etc..........

How much does it pay to be a propagandist? Might have to look in to that business....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:07 | 845598 Bodmas
Bodmas's picture

Tyler

Big fan but you are being too harsh. He has made some good calls in the past and to be fair these are not predictions but possible surprises.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:33 | 845639 liberal sodomy
liberal sodomy's picture

This guarantees him high fives, "kudos" and emeritus status on "power lunch".

High praise, indeed.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:51 | 845661 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Maybe he intended them as possible positive black swans... he just needs to make another 90 far out guesses to hit one.  As Taleb writes, you can go years before you anticipate your  black Swan and make your fortune as Taleb himself did. Just before the New Year, I was thinking it would be very interesting to have a ZH competition for predicting black swans, positive and negative.  Mine... the US economy will truly improve.  (Does anybody knowledgeable and not on drugs believe this?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:13 | 845704 Madhouse
Madhouse's picture

He shoulda called it a day when they all almost got arrested in Westport...

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:14 | 845814 Diamond Jim
Diamond Jim's picture

well then with such prognostician expertise...0 for 10...just fade the guy...short it all.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:20 | 845819 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Man, I really blew that...I mean, could I have done worse if I tried?"

"Yeah man, you ByronWien'd that shit."

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:03 | 845935 chindit13
chindit13's picture

The joke is this guy probably has a base salary of $500K and a bonus of about $3 million.  Another joke is he gets better with age, as he could probably be credited with 1/2 out of 10 (the euro did print below 1.30 during the year).

Economists and analysts on Wall Street are not expected to get anything right.  It would be nice, but it isn't a requirement for continued employment.  The trick is, can they generate business?  Can they generate commissions?  Can they generate flow?

Remember the great Mary Meeker of Morgan Stanley circa 1999?  She "pounded the table" on Yahoo! at the all time high, saying she'd still recommend it at $275.  It subsequently fell to as low as $5.  Turned out to be one of her better calls, as others completely vaporized.  She got a $30 million bonus.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:18 | 845948 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

Yes, and she's living in a mansion on a beach somewhere for this fraud.

It's still happening and it's getting even more blatant this round.

 

At what point do people start shooting?

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 02:18 | 845947 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

O for 1O - that is mighty impressive indeed......

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 03:30 | 845988 liberal sodomy
liberal sodomy's picture

" It exceeds 100 on the yen"..........ho, ho, ho.........what a maroon.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 06:38 | 846062 cramers_tears
cramers_tears's picture

Oh shit.  If George Castanza is right and we have to do the opposite of Wien(er) then we're all screwed.  Wien(er)'s predictions for 2011 along w/ his usual Bullshit is -

"Among the newer predictions is a bullish outlook for gold. "Gold prices will rise above $1,600 an ounce as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they consider "real," wrote Wien. He also predicts higher prices for agri-commodities, and sees the price of corn likely to rise to $8, wheat to $10 and soybean to $16. Oil could head to $115 a barrel, he says."

Oh shit... do I have to sell my commodities positions now?  Castanza would say yes!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 16:41 | 847418 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

I'm not trying to defend the guy, but with #5, even though the complete opposite of his USDJPY is what accually occured, the EURUSD did in fact fall below $1.30 from May 5-July 27 and from Aug 11-Sept 14. Does he get partial credit? 0.3/10?

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 03:44 | 866539 mannfm11
mannfm11's picture

What is this guy, a paid liar or an idiot? Some of his 10 predictions were actually not that far off.  The 2011 ones are off the board.  Some guys have positions despite themselves. I wonder who this guys daddy was.  

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!