Byron Wien's Prediction Track Record: Zero Out Of Ten

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Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:10 | 845243 goldmiddelfinger
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Figures. What was Doug Kass's copycat score?


Tue, 01/04/2011 - 03:55 | 846009 NoLongerABagHolder
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either he is about to go 10 for 10 this year, or we are setting up for a serious bout of deflation and market crashes based on his 2011 prediction.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:11 | 845256 swmnguy
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That's pretty impressive.  I agree; not worth the time to go point-by-point.  Either some serious disinformation or horse's-assery; kind of a fine line there.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:35 | 845400 theXman
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Looks like complete wishful thinking.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:04 | 845437 4xaddict
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If history repeats itself based on his 2011 dross then PM's are phucked and so are Russia, China, ag commodities, all Afghans that aren't zealots, oil, job seekers in the US yet the S&P will continue higher.

Based on this logic it appears he either decided a scattergun approach was due to at least get something right this year or he asked the work experience kid to cut out various headlines from last years news papers and turn them into a forecast.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:09 | 845699 TruthInSunshine
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I love Zero Hedge.

But articles such as this make me love it more than I thought even I ever could.

Zero Hedge is among the few, select publications that just tell it like it is.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:55 | 845863 RoRoTrader
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and, you're putting out some pretty decent reading also, etf.

nice to see some new talent coming around with something worthwhile to contribute to the conversation.

bring it on mofo.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845265 ThisIsBob
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Well, I ask, could that possibly have been written by someone who was drug-free?


Did he come off of any of it during the year or was he unbowed to the bloody end?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:44 | 845314 snowball777
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Perhaps not high on something as much as low on oxygen to the brain.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:16 | 845269 swmnguy
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Oh, Jeez, I went and looked at the 2011 predictions.  Really, don't do it.  It's like Rick-Rolling yourself.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:38 | 845301 Hephasteus
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No the JP Morgue is like rick rolling yourself. The Morgan Stanley is like u-u-u-ma'ing yourself.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:54 | 845419 Drag Racer
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wow... lol

19 really made me laugh. "9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance." Al-Q did not want their 'junk' messed with...

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 22:21 | 845620 swmnguy
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That one got me too.  That's when I started suspecting I'd been had.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:19 | 845270 FoieGras
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I believe Wien and guys like Kass call these "surprises", not predictions. I believe they're supposed to be thought-provoking ideas that should make the reader think "what if" -- rather than constitute accurate forecasts.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:24 | 845284 swmnguy
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True enough. That's half, or maybe nearly all, the fun in such "surprises" or predictions.

On the other hand, my reaction, which I suspect would be shared by many others who read this site, is not "what if" but "This is a really dopey world-view."


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:58 | 845333 snowball777
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No, they are "surprises" in the sense that those making the calls really think that they will happen and that they are particularly clever for having seen what others could not.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:19 | 845271 ReeferMac
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Shit, he said gold will hit $1600/ounce in 2011. Does that mean I should sell mine?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845278 Gene Parmesan
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I think it means we should expect it to hit $3k.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:41 | 845305 Hephasteus
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Shit morgan stanley will have so much counterfeit gold they'll be RICH!!!!! Millionaires!!!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 01:49 | 845926 poor fella
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There's billions to be had - in a 4x pro tungsten ETF.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:40 | 845306 SteveNYC
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Damn, which means Byron gets another 1/2 point because it will have to surpass $1,600 to hit the $3,000 bogey. Go Byron, go!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:21 | 845275 Gene Parmesan
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Are we sure his predictions weren't intended to be sarcastic?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:24 | 845460 Julia
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Go and look in the mirror and get all DeNiro on yourself...You talkin' to me?

1000% sure.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:21 | 845276 spongeBOB
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LOL....this is priceless ! I can't believ this moron opened his mouth again on public TV.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:22 | 845280 DonnieD
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The Crypt Keeper was a little off last year.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:27 | 845287 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Here you go you crazy bastards. I am gonna jump this thread and post my own year in review (Thomas is a pseudonym)...

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:10 | 845447 Cursive
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I've always enjoyed reading your comments and you've put together a damn fine read (BTW, "can desalinate" is repeated on page 24).  You should submit this to TD as a contributor post.  Whatever the precipitating event/decision was, your move to precious metals in 1999 was prescient and very profitable (I say with a lot of well-meaning envy).  I could ask you a bunch of questions, but will settle for just this one:


I think the Law of Unintended Consequences, another maxim for the ages, will eventually corner us at the national level. The triggering event is unknowable, but my money is on a requisite defense of the dollar (raging, undeniable inflation) or rapidly rising rates on long-term treasuries.


In my way of thinking, defending the dollar means a contraction of the money supply (AMS) and, therefore, massive deflation.  Any thoughts?


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:57 | 845789 Thomas
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Stemming inflation? deflation? Who knows? Volcker did not produce deflation despite a serious stomp on the brakes.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:20 | 845518 Terminus C
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Wait... you don't use your real name?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 23:59 | 845791 Thomas
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Nope, and that's not my picture either. That's Mercury Girl!

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 00:26 | 845821 Terminus C
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I read the article you posted.  Very insightful.

P.S. this isn't my real picure either.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 05:07 | 846037 thegr8whorebabylon
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Well Thomas, that was certainly the shiznits.

Good read grizz.

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 04:56 | 866604 mannfm11
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Good stuff Thomas.  Been a pleasure knowing you online for 10 years now.  I have to agree on the gas stuff.  I'm hoping for one more deep bear market move and that will be a sector to take a sizable position.  I read the entire 29 pages.  Thanks.  

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:28 | 845289 Greater Fool
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Almost unfair that you guys are passing on info this good for free.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:30 | 845292 the rookie cynic
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“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ~ Niels Bohr

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 21:25 | 845533 wilburpup
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I didn't know Casey Stengel was a student of Bohr's.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:39 | 845299 SteveNYC
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Sorry, I think Byron deserves AT LEAST 0.5/10 for this nugget:

"...regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous."

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:45 | 845318 DisparityFlux
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Is he the Gomer Pyle of Blackstone Advisory Services?

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:24 | 845462 Julia
Julia's picture

He's Goober.

Tue, 01/04/2011 - 06:10 | 846050 John_Coltrane
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No, more like the Chancy Garderner of finance.  You know, "spring is the time for financial planting, summer cultivation, fall the harvest, and winter, you know, discontent"  Get Wien one of those magic balls to help him improve his guessing.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:48 | 845320 Gimp
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Solid bookings on CNBS for old Byron in 2011...

Keep up the good work.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:49 | 845323 Godisanhftbot
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You'd figure someone that homely would at least be smart.


Or stay home.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:52 | 845487 ThisIsBob
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Old Arab saying:  Praise Allah that when He made you ugly He also made you stupid.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:53 | 845324 anony
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I was walking on a beach at 9 a.m. in the Bahamas back about 15 years ago with a rummy hangover from the night before and noticed a mini-bar/shed that served drinks at that hour and a dissheveled guy sitting on a stool waved me over saying that by the way I was walking, he thought I could use a bit of the hair of the dog. He had just the thing to cure me,  which was souped up bloody mary but it did the trick. We got to talking about things we thought would happen in the future and where we were right and wrong.

He said he had worst prediction of all time in his much younger days, he was 20 yrs old at the time. 

His prediction in  '60s?

The Beatles would only last 6 months.  Their hair was too long.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:55 | 845328 buzzsaw99
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The price is wrong bitch.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 18:55 | 845330 thepigman
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Byron Wien and Barton
Biggs have been morons
for years. Hard to
believe they still get
tons of press.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:29 | 845386 akak
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With a bit of tweaking, that could have been a nice little poem.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:35 | 845398 Red Neck Repugnicant
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With a bit of tweaking...


Smoking crystal meth is fantastic for cleaning your garage, but not for writing poetry. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 19:53 | 845413 LeBalance
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[wrong place, wrong time]

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 20:39 | 845480 Julia
Julia's picture

I thought he was going for a Haiku and then quickly realized he was just hitting return.

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