Byron Wien's Prediction Track Record: Zero Out Of Ten

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Figures. What was Doug Kass's copycat score?


NoLongerABagHolder's picture

either he is about to go 10 for 10 this year, or we are setting up for a serious bout of deflation and market crashes based on his 2011 prediction.

swmnguy's picture

That's pretty impressive.  I agree; not worth the time to go point-by-point.  Either some serious disinformation or horse's-assery; kind of a fine line there.

theXman's picture

Looks like complete wishful thinking.

4xaddict's picture

If history repeats itself based on his 2011 dross then PM's are phucked and so are Russia, China, ag commodities, all Afghans that aren't zealots, oil, job seekers in the US yet the S&P will continue higher.

Based on this logic it appears he either decided a scattergun approach was due to at least get something right this year or he asked the work experience kid to cut out various headlines from last years news papers and turn them into a forecast.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I love Zero Hedge.

But articles such as this make me love it more than I thought even I ever could.

Zero Hedge is among the few, select publications that just tell it like it is.

RoRoTrader's picture

and, you're putting out some pretty decent reading also, etf.

nice to see some new talent coming around with something worthwhile to contribute to the conversation.

bring it on mofo.

ThisIsBob's picture

Well, I ask, could that possibly have been written by someone who was drug-free?


Did he come off of any of it during the year or was he unbowed to the bloody end?

snowball777's picture

Perhaps not high on something as much as low on oxygen to the brain.

swmnguy's picture

Oh, Jeez, I went and looked at the 2011 predictions.  Really, don't do it.  It's like Rick-Rolling yourself.

Hephasteus's picture

No the JP Morgue is like rick rolling yourself. The Morgan Stanley is like u-u-u-ma'ing yourself.

Drag Racer's picture

wow... lol

19 really made me laugh. "9/11/11 becomes a peaceful non-event because of excellent intelligence and surveillance." Al-Q did not want their 'junk' messed with...

swmnguy's picture

That one got me too.  That's when I started suspecting I'd been had.

FoieGras's picture

I believe Wien and guys like Kass call these "surprises", not predictions. I believe they're supposed to be thought-provoking ideas that should make the reader think "what if" -- rather than constitute accurate forecasts.

swmnguy's picture

True enough. That's half, or maybe nearly all, the fun in such "surprises" or predictions.

On the other hand, my reaction, which I suspect would be shared by many others who read this site, is not "what if" but "This is a really dopey world-view."


snowball777's picture

No, they are "surprises" in the sense that those making the calls really think that they will happen and that they are particularly clever for having seen what others could not.


ReeferMac's picture

Shit, he said gold will hit $1600/ounce in 2011. Does that mean I should sell mine?

Gene Parmesan's picture

I think it means we should expect it to hit $3k.

Hephasteus's picture

Shit morgan stanley will have so much counterfeit gold they'll be RICH!!!!! Millionaires!!!

poor fella's picture

There's billions to be had - in a 4x pro tungsten ETF.

SteveNYC's picture

Damn, which means Byron gets another 1/2 point because it will have to surpass $1,600 to hit the $3,000 bogey. Go Byron, go!

Gene Parmesan's picture

Are we sure his predictions weren't intended to be sarcastic?

Julia's picture

Go and look in the mirror and get all DeNiro on yourself...You talkin' to me?

1000% sure.

spongeBOB's picture

LOL....this is priceless ! I can't believ this moron opened his mouth again on public TV.

DonnieD's picture

The Crypt Keeper was a little off last year.

Thomas's picture

Here you go you crazy bastards. I am gonna jump this thread and post my own year in review (Thomas is a pseudonym)...

Cursive's picture


I've always enjoyed reading your comments and you've put together a damn fine read (BTW, "can desalinate" is repeated on page 24).  You should submit this to TD as a contributor post.  Whatever the precipitating event/decision was, your move to precious metals in 1999 was prescient and very profitable (I say with a lot of well-meaning envy).  I could ask you a bunch of questions, but will settle for just this one:


I think the Law of Unintended Consequences, another maxim for the ages, will eventually corner us at the national level. The triggering event is unknowable, but my money is on a requisite defense of the dollar (raging, undeniable inflation) or rapidly rising rates on long-term treasuries.


In my way of thinking, defending the dollar means a contraction of the money supply (AMS) and, therefore, massive deflation.  Any thoughts?


Thomas's picture

Stemming inflation? deflation? Who knows? Volcker did not produce deflation despite a serious stomp on the brakes.

Terminus C's picture

Wait... you don't use your real name?

Thomas's picture

Nope, and that's not my picture either. That's Mercury Girl!

Terminus C's picture

I read the article you posted.  Very insightful.

P.S. this isn't my real picure either.

thegr8whorebabylon's picture

Well Thomas, that was certainly the shiznits.

Good read grizz.

mannfm11's picture

Good stuff Thomas.  Been a pleasure knowing you online for 10 years now.  I have to agree on the gas stuff.  I'm hoping for one more deep bear market move and that will be a sector to take a sizable position.  I read the entire 29 pages.  Thanks.  

Greater Fool's picture

Almost unfair that you guys are passing on info this good for free.

the rookie cynic's picture

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ~ Niels Bohr

wilburpup's picture

I didn't know Casey Stengel was a student of Bohr's.

SteveNYC's picture

Sorry, I think Byron deserves AT LEAST 0.5/10 for this nugget:

"...regulatory changes for investment bankers and hedge funds are not onerous."

DisparityFlux's picture

Is he the Gomer Pyle of Blackstone Advisory Services?

John_Coltrane's picture

No, more like the Chancy Garderner of finance.  You know, "spring is the time for financial planting, summer cultivation, fall the harvest, and winter, you know, discontent"  Get Wien one of those magic balls to help him improve his guessing.

Gimp's picture

Solid bookings on CNBS for old Byron in 2011...

Keep up the good work.


Godisanhftbot's picture

You'd figure someone that homely would at least be smart.


Or stay home.

ThisIsBob's picture

Old Arab saying:  Praise Allah that when He made you ugly He also made you stupid.

anony's picture

I was walking on a beach at 9 a.m. in the Bahamas back about 15 years ago with a rummy hangover from the night before and noticed a mini-bar/shed that served drinks at that hour and a dissheveled guy sitting on a stool waved me over saying that by the way I was walking, he thought I could use a bit of the hair of the dog. He had just the thing to cure me,  which was souped up bloody mary but it did the trick. We got to talking about things we thought would happen in the future and where we were right and wrong.

He said he had worst prediction of all time in his much younger days, he was 20 yrs old at the time. 

His prediction in  '60s?

The Beatles would only last 6 months.  Their hair was too long.

thepigman's picture

Byron Wien and Barton
Biggs have been morons
for years. Hard to
believe they still get
tons of press.

akak's picture

With a bit of tweaking, that could have been a nice little poem.

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture


With a bit of tweaking...


Smoking crystal meth is fantastic for cleaning your garage, but not for writing poetry. 

Julia's picture

I thought he was going for a Haiku and then quickly realized he was just hitting return.