Canada Inflation Surges: Core Comes At 0.7% On 0.2% Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture

A surprise out of the Bank Of Canada, which just announced that despite expectations for CPI coming at a modest 0.6% and 0.2% for the core, inflation was a blistering 1.1%, and 0.7% ex-non core items. Has the inflation genie finally come out of the bottle in the northern neighbor? While Goldman attempts to talk down this "ugly report", attributing the spike to a short-lived commodity spike (that's that temporary word again), the currency market was not as easily fooled: USDCAD moved a good 50 pips from 0.963 to 0.958 in seconds, giving the dollar another push in the race to the global currency bottom.

From Goldman

Sharp Increase in Core, Likely on Commodity Price Pass-Through
Large upside surprise in core inflation, pushing year-over-year figure much closer to Bank of Canada's target.

1. Canada's core CPI surprised sharply to the upside in March, rising 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis on the month and more than reversing the downside surprises of prior months. Two key factors explaining the sharp rise in the core index were clothing/shoes (+2.1% mom SA, the largest monthly increase on record, worth about 14 basis points on the SA core), and food (+1.6% mom SA, also the largest monthly increase on record; unlike the US core index, a large part of food is included in the Canadian core index--with a simple assumption that food prices rose equally across all categories, this would be worth about 30 basis points on the SA core). Given increases in cotton prices in recent months, commodity prices look to be a factor in both of these increases.

2. Headline inflation rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, 3.3% year-over-year; while this was also an upside surprise relative to the consensus forecast, essentially all of this surprise is explained by the higher core. Gasoline prices rose sharply, as expected.

3. If there is any silver lining to this generally ugly report, it is that inflation due to commodity-price pass through is likely to be temporary. Without further increases in commodity prices, the peak impact on the CPI should be reached within the next few months.

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Sudden Debt's picture

inflation is likely to be temporary...

Yes... it will all be over in 2090. But what happens between now and then might be a bit confusing for them...



Pseudo Anonym's picture

Has the inflation genies finally come out of the bottle in the northern neighbor

no, not finally.  It's been around for the last 2 years for those that eat, drive, heat their house, need warm clothes and use electricity.  But not to worry; public serpents and unionized leaches and parasites would not know since their wages are going up in a nice clip.  And they're still bitching that they want more and need more.

Ahmeexnal's picture


"From Each According to His Ability, To Each According to His Need"


lolmao500's picture

Gee no kidding inflation is higher than they expected. Gas prices are 5$+ a gallon here. Food has been increasing quite a lot too.


And it'll only get worse when the US collapses and our GDP crashes by 50%.

Jack Mayoffer's picture

50% ehh?  

We go.

Terminus C's picture

75%-80% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.

So yea... U.S. goes, Canada goes

Cash_is_Trash's picture

This article is bogus, I don't see any inflation, none!

Then again, I work at the Federal Reserve.

; )

EscapeKey's picture

Neither do I.

In fact, Penthouse flats in Mayfair, 110 inch Plasma TVs, and high end Mercedes Benz automobiles are down, which more than compensates for food prices doubling.

Deflation, bitchez.

Thomas's picture

My investment-grade beanie babies have been in a secular downtrend as well.

Big Corked Boots's picture

Don't worry. If things get really bad then the US government will notice, take pity on your "humanitarian" situation and send troops north.

The future of the world: George Orwell meets Philip K. Dick.

tarsubil's picture

Philip K. Dick's reality questioning madness stories helped prepare me for today's news cycle.

The Gold Theory's picture

Gas was around $1/L here (near Toronto) around Xmas, now it is $1.40...  I'd say thats 80% per annum inflation but then again I don't get paid to do the calculation so I am unbiased and therefore incorrect. 


Sudden Debt's picture

Gas was around $1/L here (near Toronto) around Xmas, now it is $1.40...  I'd say thats 80% per annum inflation


1$ > 1.4$ = 80%... wanna try it again?  


The Gold Theory's picture

Xmas was 6 months ago, I was extrapolating for a full year (multiply by 2)

Sudden Debt's picture

6 months ago?

You're from China right? :)

sharkbait's picture

he said per annum.  wanna try again?

Sudden Debt's picture

I don't do Enron math.


tarsubil's picture

Okay, a liter cost $1 in mid Dec and now costs $1.40. Can you calculate what the annual inflation would be if the trend continues?

Sudden Debt's picture

Somewhere between 1$ and 2$.

Oil is a consumer good. The higher the price, the lower demand and equilibrium comes to bite you in the ass :)


Spitzer's picture

yes fool, but this is happening while inventories are rising.

Übermensch's picture

This is what you get for privatizing the nations oil wealth... Nationalize health care but let private corporations plunder its resources. Politicians are true scum of the Earth.

Jessica6's picture

I don't know why the NDP aren't campaigning on that - nationalizing oil. Not saying I neccessarily agree with it, but they're supposed to be Socialist, aren't they? They'd probably win if they did. The only province that would get upset about it is Alberta and they've always been solidly conservative.

Guess they have been fully hijacked by the greenies.

Dr. Porkchop's picture

Oil nationalization is scary talk.

That was actually Trudeau's greatest gift to conservatives.. The NEP. Gave them the ability to get westerners agitated at the drop of a hat!

Canucklehead's picture

With the passage of the Clarity Act to deal with future Quebec separation votes, any nationalization of Oil talk will result in a separation referendum for most of Western Canada.  Present speculation is that the Tar Sands generates $50 Billion in Federal royalties.  Separated Alberta and Saskatchewan would see those funds flow to their citizens (~3.5 million people).

mogul rider's picture

No public sector health unions are the scum of the earth. We allocate more dollars to health and htey take it all in boguc wage increases and no dollars for health


Gotcha Nice try

Sopra Tutt1's picture

The gas price in Toronto is now between $1.30 and $1.34 per liter. If I remember correctly, during Xmas it was $1.08 - $1.12. This time last year it was $0.93-$0.94.

breezer1's picture

according to turners blog the re bubble is about to pop big time. worse than the states.

Dr. Porkchop's picture

I dont mind garth's blog, and i think he's right on about RE, but he's a bit of a pm hater.

mogul rider's picture

10 years ago Garth was the strongest advocate for taking 100K mortgages out on your house and buying Nortel


Check it out, yup he's a winner alright

X. Kurt OSis's picture

Inflation is good for sheep, eh.

BTFD, hosers.

assumptionblindness's picture

This report just verifies how fucked-up our inflation 'data' is here in the USofA.  How can it be that Canada has so much more inflation than the US?  Didn't the Canadian dollar STRENGTHEN vs. the greenback last month?   Jeezus!!!

sharkbait's picture

The teleprompter in chief may be forced to declare a no fly zone over Canada for humanatarian reasons if they don't stop publishing correct but troubling data.  The people may get scared and we don't want that do we.

Übermensch's picture

You are correct the loonie did strenghten against the USD. But NONE of that currency appreciation has been passed on to consumers. You see according to major retailers consumers would much rather pay higher more "stable" prices rather than a "volatile" decreasing price... You can't make this shit up!

Sheriff Douchenik from AZ's picture

Exactly, no f/x savings being passed to the consumer...that's why cross border shopping is probably going gangbusters. Pop down to the states for the weekend and load up on 'stuff'.

Diogenes's picture

Go into any bookstore in Canada and all the books will be marked with 2 prices. The  US price and the Canadian price which is 20% higher. And they are sticking to this in spite of the fact that the Canadian dollar is now higher than the US dollar.

Actual example, the last book I bought,2 weeks ago  Free Lunch by David Cay Johnson, US price $24.95 Canadian price $30.00 printed and published in the US.

No wonder online book stores are so popular.

topcallingtroll's picture

Currency readjustments are ugly when every mercantilist in the world lets imbalances build up, and then reloans the money in a procyclical way rather than increase internal demand.

We will get through this.  The USA may even come out ahead again if we can get our act together and cut out all the subsidy, moral hazard, and transfer payments.

Canada is just collateral damage.


PY-129-20's picture

OT: The Libyan Rebels are now officially using Hippies to win the war against Qdaffy:

augie's picture

FAL is not a hippy rifle.

topcallingtroll's picture

The FAL has probably been one of the greatest and least appreciated modern  main battle rifle.

The m16 clones and variations are city guns.  They are too prissy for long term desert and forest use without great depth in your support units and inventory.

For an army that is run on a shoe string budget you can go ak47 or FAL.  For most situations I will take the FAL.

Canucklehead's picture

The FAL does not hold a candle to an M1A (clone or original).  Your typical soldier cannot shoot an FAL or M14 in automatic mode.

The FAL does not have the accuracy potential of an M1A, or an AR-10.

In Canada you can get a M1A clone for $450. 

No serious army uses the FAL.  The only market for FALs competes with Chinese M1As.

tarsubil's picture

I can't find a M1A for less than ~$1300. Where do I find the $450 versions?

Canucklehead's picture

The $450 version is the Chinese Norinco version sold in Canada.  It is the same as the Polytech version that was sold in the US up to the early 90's.

If you check out, you will find lots of information about them.  You would need to join in order to visit the forums.  If you don't want to join, check out the website advertisers.  Many of the advertisers carry the various Norinco products.

X. Kurt OSis's picture

Per bbg, QE2.5 is in effect. Trade accordingly (which means short everything, the Fed is out of ammo and is just hoping that telling the world that rolling its maturities is stimulus is enough).

Marty Rothbard's picture

   Canada's real estate bubble is now in the first stage of collapse.  The collapse will cause monetary deflation, as the price of housing, and commercial real estate plunge.  The bubbble is particularly severe in British Colombia, particularly Vancouver.  The Vancouver bubble has been driven , in particular by Chinese money.  The Chinese are now tightening credit by raising interest rates, and bankng reserve requirements.  This will bring money home to China, exacerbating the fall in prices.  This will moderate the consumer price inflation now evident, as will the strenghtening of theCanadian dollar, due to rising commodity exports.

   The Canadian dollar lacks the foreign reserve status of the US dollar, so they have not been given as much rope to hang themselves with.   In the early 1990s, Canada was able to turn around a large sovereign debt problem.  This experience has left them with the lowest reprorted debt to GDP ratio of the G-7.


cowpieflapjack's picture

Though I don't believe anyone has ever posted factual info corroborating the Chinese angle to the boom in Vancouver.