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Canada Inflation Surges: Core Comes At 0.7% On 0.2% Consensus
A surprise out of the Bank Of Canada, which just announced that despite expectations for CPI coming at a modest 0.6% and 0.2% for the core, inflation was a blistering 1.1%, and 0.7% ex-non core items. Has the inflation genie finally come out of the bottle in the northern neighbor? While Goldman attempts to talk down this "ugly report", attributing the spike to a short-lived commodity spike (that's that temporary word again), the currency market was not as easily fooled: USDCAD moved a good 50 pips from 0.963 to 0.958 in seconds, giving the dollar another push in the race to the global currency bottom.
From Goldman
Sharp Increase in Core, Likely on Commodity Price Pass-Through
Large upside surprise in core inflation, pushing year-over-year figure much closer to Bank of Canada's target.KEY POINTS:
1. Canada's core CPI surprised sharply to the upside in March, rising 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis on the month and more than reversing the downside surprises of prior months. Two key factors explaining the sharp rise in the core index were clothing/shoes (+2.1% mom SA, the largest monthly increase on record, worth about 14 basis points on the SA core), and food (+1.6% mom SA, also the largest monthly increase on record; unlike the US core index, a large part of food is included in the Canadian core index--with a simple assumption that food prices rose equally across all categories, this would be worth about 30 basis points on the SA core). Given increases in cotton prices in recent months, commodity prices look to be a factor in both of these increases.2. Headline inflation rose 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, 3.3% year-over-year; while this was also an upside surprise relative to the consensus forecast, essentially all of this surprise is explained by the higher core. Gasoline prices rose sharply, as expected.
3. If there is any silver lining to this generally ugly report, it is that inflation due to commodity-price pass through is likely to be temporary. Without further increases in commodity prices, the peak impact on the CPI should be reached within the next few months.
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Yes... it will all be over in 2090. But what happens between now and then might be a bit confusing for them...
It's Mervyn King's favourite excuse as well.
http://intrinsicvalueoffiat.blogspot.com/2011/04/mervyn-king-says-rise-i...
$5.35/gallon at the pump baby! YEH!!!
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
no, not finally. It's been around for the last 2 years for those that eat, drive, heat their house, need warm clothes and use electricity. But not to worry; public serpents and unionized leaches and parasites would not know since their wages are going up in a nice clip. And they're still bitching that they want more and need more.
Gee no kidding inflation is higher than they expected. Gas prices are 5$+ a gallon here. Food has been increasing quite a lot too.
And it'll only get worse when the US collapses and our GDP crashes by 50%.
50% ehh?
We go......you go.
75%-80% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.
So yea... U.S. goes, Canada goes
This article is bogus, I don't see any inflation, none!
Then again, I work at the Federal Reserve.
; )
Neither do I.
In fact, Penthouse flats in Mayfair, 110 inch Plasma TVs, and high end Mercedes Benz automobiles are down, which more than compensates for food prices doubling.
Deflation, bitchez.
My investment-grade beanie babies have been in a secular downtrend as well.
BTFD?
Don't worry. If things get really bad then the US government will notice, take pity on your "humanitarian" situation and send troops north.
The future of the world: George Orwell meets Philip K. Dick.
Philip K. Dick's reality questioning madness stories helped prepare me for today's news cycle.
Gas was around $1/L here (near Toronto) around Xmas, now it is $1.40... I'd say thats 80% per annum inflation but then again I don't get paid to do the calculation so I am unbiased and therefore incorrect.
1$ > 1.4$ = 80%... wanna try it again?
Xmas was 6 months ago, I was extrapolating for a full year (multiply by 2)
6 months ago?
You're from China right? :)
he said per annum. wanna try again?
I don't do Enron math.
Okay, a liter cost $1 in mid Dec and now costs $1.40. Can you calculate what the annual inflation would be if the trend continues?
Somewhere between 1$ and 2$.
Oil is a consumer good. The higher the price, the lower demand and equilibrium comes to bite you in the ass :)
yes fool, but this is happening while inventories are rising.
This is what you get for privatizing the nations oil wealth... Nationalize health care but let private corporations plunder its resources. Politicians are true scum of the Earth.
I don't know why the NDP aren't campaigning on that - nationalizing oil. Not saying I neccessarily agree with it, but they're supposed to be Socialist, aren't they? They'd probably win if they did. The only province that would get upset about it is Alberta and they've always been solidly conservative.
Guess they have been fully hijacked by the greenies.
Oil nationalization is scary talk.
That was actually Trudeau's greatest gift to conservatives.. The NEP. Gave them the ability to get westerners agitated at the drop of a hat!
With the passage of the Clarity Act to deal with future Quebec separation votes, any nationalization of Oil talk will result in a separation referendum for most of Western Canada. Present speculation is that the Tar Sands generates $50 Billion in Federal royalties. Separated Alberta and Saskatchewan would see those funds flow to their citizens (~3.5 million people).
No public sector health unions are the scum of the earth. We allocate more dollars to health and htey take it all in boguc wage increases and no dollars for health
Gotcha Nice try
The gas price in Toronto is now between $1.30 and $1.34 per liter. If I remember correctly, during Xmas it was $1.08 - $1.12. This time last year it was $0.93-$0.94.
according to turners blog the re bubble is about to pop big time. worse than the states.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/18/xtreme-buying/
I dont mind garth's blog, and i think he's right on about RE, but he's a bit of a pm hater.
10 years ago Garth was the strongest advocate for taking 100K mortgages out on your house and buying Nortel
Check it out, yup he's a winner alright
Inflation is good for sheep, eh.
BTFD, hosers.
This report just verifies how fucked-up our inflation 'data' is here in the USofA. How can it be that Canada has so much more inflation than the US? Didn't the Canadian dollar STRENGTHEN vs. the greenback last month? Jeezus!!!
The teleprompter in chief may be forced to declare a no fly zone over Canada for humanatarian reasons if they don't stop publishing correct but troubling data. The people may get scared and we don't want that do we.
You are correct the loonie did strenghten against the USD. But NONE of that currency appreciation has been passed on to consumers. You see according to major retailers consumers would much rather pay higher more "stable" prices rather than a "volatile" decreasing price... You can't make this shit up!
Exactly, no f/x savings being passed to the consumer...that's why cross border shopping is probably going gangbusters. Pop down to the states for the weekend and load up on 'stuff'.
Go into any bookstore in Canada and all the books will be marked with 2 prices. The US price and the Canadian price which is 20% higher. And they are sticking to this in spite of the fact that the Canadian dollar is now higher than the US dollar.
Actual example, the last book I bought,2 weeks ago Free Lunch by David Cay Johnson, US price $24.95 Canadian price $30.00 printed and published in the US.
No wonder online book stores are so popular.
Currency readjustments are ugly when every mercantilist in the world lets imbalances build up, and then reloans the money in a procyclical way rather than increase internal demand.
We will get through this. The USA may even come out ahead again if we can get our act together and cut out all the subsidy, moral hazard, and transfer payments.
Canada is just collateral damage.
OT: The Libyan Rebels are now officially using Hippies to win the war against Qdaffy:
http://www.spiegel.de/images/image-205017-breitwandaufmacher-xglx.jpg
FAL is not a hippy rifle.
The FAL has probably been one of the greatest and least appreciated modern main battle rifle.
The m16 clones and variations are city guns. They are too prissy for long term desert and forest use without great depth in your support units and inventory.
For an army that is run on a shoe string budget you can go ak47 or FAL. For most situations I will take the FAL.
The FAL does not hold a candle to an M1A (clone or original). Your typical soldier cannot shoot an FAL or M14 in automatic mode.
The FAL does not have the accuracy potential of an M1A, or an AR-10.
In Canada you can get a M1A clone for $450.
No serious army uses the FAL. The only market for FALs competes with Chinese M1As.
I can't find a M1A for less than ~$1300. Where do I find the $450 versions?
The $450 version is the Chinese Norinco version sold in Canada. It is the same as the Polytech version that was sold in the US up to the early 90's.
If you check out www.canadiangunnutz.com, you will find lots of information about them. You would need to join in order to visit the forums. If you don't want to join, check out the website advertisers. Many of the advertisers carry the various Norinco products.
Thank you.
Per bbg, QE2.5 is in effect. Trade accordingly (which means short everything, the Fed is out of ammo and is just hoping that telling the world that rolling its maturities is stimulus is enough).
Canada's real estate bubble is now in the first stage of collapse. The collapse will cause monetary deflation, as the price of housing, and commercial real estate plunge. The bubbble is particularly severe in British Colombia, particularly Vancouver. The Vancouver bubble has been driven , in particular by Chinese money. The Chinese are now tightening credit by raising interest rates, and bankng reserve requirements. This will bring money home to China, exacerbating the fall in prices. This will moderate the consumer price inflation now evident, as will the strenghtening of theCanadian dollar, due to rising commodity exports.
The Canadian dollar lacks the foreign reserve status of the US dollar, so they have not been given as much rope to hang themselves with. In the early 1990s, Canada was able to turn around a large sovereign debt problem. This experience has left them with the lowest reprorted debt to GDP ratio of the G-7.
Though I don't believe anyone has ever posted factual info corroborating the Chinese angle to the boom in Vancouver.
The popping bubble will NOT CAUSE DEFLATION. Did the Euro rise or fall when Greece got into trouble ?
It fell, which is not deflation.
Bullshit. Vancouver and Toronto may be in bubbles of their own but that covers less than 1% of Canadian real estate. And if you bought the bubble when the US bubble blew up in 06 you would have seen an increase in value of 50% or more in those cities so far.
Whether those 2 cities will see their bubbles burst, I do not know. I do know that in small town Ontario where I live and invest, there was a short lived dip in the wake of the US bubble burst, of about 10% or less over 6 months. Since then prices have gone up, up, up but are still good value. I sold out between 2007 and 2010 and regret it. Since last fall I hva been buying and am happy. The way things are going inflation is not going to stop and anyone who locks in some mortgages at today's rates is going to look awfully smart, not to mention rich, in 5 years.
I am in Canada and am paying $ 26.00 per 50 round box of American Eagle .45 Acp ammo, to feed my 1911
It was 17.00 per box 2 years ago.
Check out Cheaper than Dirt: www.cheaperthandirt.com
They run some good specials. Sign up to get their weekly flyer.
Cheaper Than Dirt won't ship to Canada.
I suck.
You'll always be surpassed by Ben, Tim and Barry.
Chin up cowboy.
Ha thanks just double posted and was trying to cover my douchery with self-deprication. Works for larry david but then again, i'm not a joo.
Xtranormal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xk3j6g50Krs
Inflation rate surges to 3.3% http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/inflation-rate-surges-to-33/article1990859/
Canada’s inflation rate quickened at the fastest pace in two-and-a-half years in March as costs for gasoline and food heated up, suggesting the country is not immune to soaring commodity prices that are pressuring much of the world.
The country’s consumer price index accelerated to 3.3% after a 2.2% annual increase in February, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. The reading was the highest since September, 2008, and topped economists’ expectations.
Canada hides its corruption better than any country in the world. Institutionalized Gulags in public and corporate sectors alike. Rightly so, the world uses their energies to scrutinize The Fed and the US banking system but what about the so called 'pristine' banks in Canada? Think about it, most of Canada works in the public sector or the financial sector. That's a lot of employees who are too scared to say fuck in order to protect their jobs. Canada is a whorehouse and outside of Toronto is where the Eyes Wide Shut freaks live.
They don't mind that the American White-Collar Gangsters get all the fame and glory.
Canadian banks are no different than American banks. They are all part of the same cartel.
There are a few of us who have our eyes wide open, and are trying to wake up the others. It is a long and arduous process and I am not sure we'll rouse enough people in time.
Canadian banks are the smartest in the world. Better than the Swiss banks, and they can leave their US counterparts frozen against the cushion on the best day they ever saw.
If you followed the news during the late banking crisis in the US at the bottom of the reports in the Canadian financial papers would be a footnote saying the Canadian banks got in on the crazy loans when the money was good but stopped buying a year and a half to two years before the bubble blew up. Most Canadian banks made good money off the bubble but lost little or nothing when it blew. I think the biggest Canadian bank exposure was $5 billon, a drop in the bucket.
This is typical. I have seen basically the same scenario in every financial crisis all the way back to when Brazilian bonds blew up back in the 70s.
Canadian banks make more money, and take fewer losses than any banks in the world. No Canadian bank has gone broke since 1854.
This. No other country can out-hypocrisy Canada. Look for Lord Moran's letter about Canada, especially the part about politicians. Wish I could unjunk you.
i am on the east coast and everyone i know is up to their neck in debt. houses, vehicles and vacations. most on the back of emergency rates by the BoC. 35-40 year super low variable rates with big lines of credit. recent pullbacks by the big guys have not deterred the secondary lenders. there will be a lot of pain when we lose our biggest export partner to default.
everyone i know has family in the states and it seems we have learned nothing from their pain. no one wants to know about it. lots of folks rushing out to p/u florida and arizona real estate. i talked a couple out of buying down south and they are thankful they didn't since prices are still dropping. i fear it will be a whole lot worse than most will be able to adapt to.
Once the Canucknuckleheads get past the stream of bullshit mantra that they are somehow superior because their banks were smarter, they'll be circling the bowl. Clockwise. The Aussies will be CCW.
My bank (BMO) got a backdoor bailout from the Fed. Royal is an official primary dealer of the Fed. Scotia bank is an official fraudulent fed bullion bank and all of them are authorized participants of the GLD ETF fraud.
Once Harper eliminates the census completely, we wont need to worry about such ugly numbers. Streve will just tell us how it is and stats can will make pie charts showing how right he is.
The doctor is in.... I hope you're Canadian. That's funny shit right there.
Vast chunks of the Canada either never filled out a census, or fudged the census as a joke. There has been long standing concern that the census numbers are garbage because of all the mathematical corrections used to factor a final number.
Canada is a good example for the US as in once healthcare is nationalized (as it is up here)...the next prize for Cdn socialists is to nationalize daycare (more unionized public sector jobs right?)...it never stops. You're all good in the liberals hands with someone elses money. Very compassionate.
err, I wouldn't call 1.1% "blistering".
Month over month...
That is a fairly rapid inflation rate. Were it to maintain that rate for the rest of the year we'd be in double digit inflation over the year.
Where's AKAK (alias kaka) and WEBBLOTO
I figured you'd be all over the Canada bashing.
Bring it on douchebags.
I'm itching for fight today. Where are my nancy boys - here nancy boys
Not to worry, it is all transitory, that is what the govt. said. Until it moves to infinity and beyond.
but... beyond... is transitory... so, in effect they are not lying.
I'm not corncerned I just save my eating and driving for when it is affordable. In the meantime watching the 3 movies available on Netflix with my Ipad2 keeps me going.
+1 Krugman, the Bernank, and the Teleprompter in Chief will look you will be awarded the Medal of Freedoom. Post mortem.
"A surprise out of the Bank Of Canada",
A surprise ...?????
To who...????
The fucking Canadian sheeple maybe,but anyone falling the Banksters magic ball,knew this already and have been warning thier friends and family .
Surprise.....Bull fucking shit.Bank of Canada.......!!!!!
"price pass through is likely to be temporary"
You fucking Sach of Goldman Sachs shit.
I hope one days you's meet your maker.
Fuckm off and Die,Goldmanites.
Your a cancerous disease....!!!!!
PS.....
The Bank of Canada is "Goldman Sachs"
Mark Carney,an Ex Goldmanite runs the B of C .
And he was appointed a senior advisor which is also a Goldmanite.
So if you think the Bank of Canada is "CANADIAN'......Think again.
Just another branch of the Federal Reserve of the USA.
FUCK YOU...Mark Carney.
Royal Bank of Canada is a Fed primary dealer.
Bank of NovaScotia is a bullion bank, that operates exactly like JPM
And the rest of them are "authorised participants" of the GLD ETF.
i doubt if there will be any real estate collapse in vancouver. as long as there are 60,000 people a year moving into this market, it will keep going up.. it's a 'supply & demand' market, not a bubble. prices are very strong, multi-rez is booming and the immigrants are buying with cash - actually, they are lining up in the rain for hours to buy.
the idiots that are making the crash predictions ought to look into the numbers a bit deeper. so please, if you don't know what you're talking about, shut up, eh.