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A Candid Look At The ADP National Employment Report
While much of the focus has been on ADP change, little has been made of the absolute level of the ADP report. The chart demonstrates the freefall in this particular data series. We are now at 2003 readings and dropping fast, with the absolute level soon set to take out all time lows.
As a reminder:
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of nonfarm private employment,
based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data, using approximately
365,000 of ADP's 500,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million
employees working in all 19 of the major North American Industrial
Classification (NAICS) private industrial sectors. The ADP National Employment
Report was developed to help meet the need for additional timely and accurate
estimates of short-term movements in the national labor market among economists,
financial professionals, and government policy-makers. -- This series began in
May 2006, and historical data was made available back til Dec. 2000.
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yeah but doesn't having 79 weeks of unemployment benefits now make it less worser than 2003??? LOL
God, without the mainstream media filtering, that looks down right scary.
Time for some tranquilizers. Or American Idol.
Second derivative, second derivative. It's practically shooting skyward. Time to buy.
academics love these 1st (change) and 2nd (rate of change) derivatives of the actual number and there may be some logic behind that however the baseline data needs to be known to put these other data into context. The mainstream media reports the changes without any context. That is the issue I have.
Look at the graph begining January 2008 to present. It is VERY CLEARLY the beginning of a "V" not a "U" or an "L." What is wrong with you people?
I assume that was sarcasm
Timertim
Sarcasm, a common residual effect after the Kool-Aid wears off, and a sign of a weak mind. Guilty as charged.
LOL you had me going there for a minute - I was looking for my kool-aid pitcher - needed a drink. It's to bad they don't make a JD (Jack Daniles) version of Kool-Aid
Mark
That's called Lynchburg Lemonade(tm)!
Gimme a "d", gimme a "e", gimme a "f", gimme a "l".... you know the rest. My spider sense detects a quiet but relentless bid under high-credit-quality global bond funds. Inflation may come, but for a guy who is afraid to buy green bananas, it's not on my top 10 worry list yet.
Easy--"d" "e" "f" "l" EPPARD!! Oh wait...
golf clap
If newly unemployed are getting paid, UE benefits, doesn't that contribute to GDP? he he
Seriously, do UE benefits count towards GDP? Presumably, it is a job just like any other job and is counted; the only difference is someone who is unemployed is basically being paid like any other jobholder or government employee, they are just extremely inefficient. The gov't even borrows to fund that "employee", just like any other company might, so my suspicion is that it is included.
The thing people aren't talking about is where these jobs are being lost, whether or not any future growth in the economy will absorb this capacity, and how this will feed back into the overall growth of the economy.
The increase in unemployment coming from unskilled/uneducated laborers that were working in high-demand industries as "warm bodies", earning above-market wage premiums and then leveraging-up those earnings to afford the lifestyle of a higher income bracket doesn't give me much hope for a future recovery.
I have news for you my friend, from a planet called reality. A significant number of those unskilled/uneducated laborers were never on ADP or any other payroll, and aren't able to collect unemployment, becuase they are/were UNDOCUMENTED and with the total collapse of residential construction and other "warm body" intensive sectors, large numbers have simply left CA, FL, NV, AZ, TX etc. to go back to Mexico, and those that have stayed are scraping by with underemployment in the underground (i.e. cash) economy.
Actually, no, you don't have any news for me. You bring very little, actually. I'm talking about the folks that have been working in consumer-driven industries both on the "cost of sales" and the "g&a" portions of the income statement. The world can only employ so many project managers, office administrators, and the whole spectrum of knowledge workers under the title "analyst".
You can now politely shut the fuck up before you step on your dick further than you already have.
"lighten up, francis."
jeez. the guy was politely presenting a different take on your point, but that's apparently not allowed in your tiny little world. some people take themselves waaaaaay too seriously in these parts. personally, i would be flattered by the assumption that i can step on my own penis. :)
no need to respond. i already have a pretty good idea of where you will tell me to stick what.
Nah, just end-of-quarter jitters. In fairness to Mr. Anonymous, it wasn't my intent to be a big meanie head; he does raise an interesting point.
Talked to a guy from ADP last night. He said that they are scaling back their small business product offerings in a big way. Tells us all we need to know about new business formation. The same guy told me about friends of his on the West Coast that went out on their own - they had the office and equipement but the loan from the bank was rescinded. They're packing up the shop.
slap that up against the BLS "birth/death" model, a farce blatant enough to discredit gov't statistics all by itself
You gave me an idea. I eliminated the birth death adjustment going back to January 2003. On a cumulative basis, we would have 6.7 million fewer jobs as our workforce woud fall from around 131 million to 125 million or 5% fewer jobs. My guess is that we're somewhere between the two figures as the Business Employment Dynamics report which is usually 6 months behind tells us that birth-death isn't a complete farce.
Also, if you look at the BLS data, we're down to Spring 2004 levels.
Green shoots! LIESman says all is well! No, seriously, nobody cares about ADP. It's GDP-much more productive in q2 than expected. The news cycle has turned-we're far more concerned about the Olympics in Chicago in 2012. Obama, Oprah, Michelle will represent us. We can't lose!
note how in the last dip the second derivative had more than one inflection and resumed acceleration to the downside a second time.
note how in the last dip the second derivative had more than one inflection and resumed acceleration to the downside a second time.
Jobs are on life support. Yesss, the job declines are slowing and the patient is dieing. Just what will it take to see the gravity of the mess wrought by Dearest Leader and the long line of misguided Congresscriters who really have a shallow grasp of even basic econ.
The real shame of it all is that ADP can't show us just how many jobs have been saved/created do to all these wonderful advancements in media spin...
The Banksters pushing stocks higher don't give a shit about there being no jobs. They probably want there to be screaming high unemployment so that they can steal more money from the desperate government printfest.
Look how GS has pushed crude oil up $2 in an hour in order to put a bid in the stock market. What a fucking joke. Our country is dead meat so long as the banksters have total control.
I would argue that orders were given to sell the USD to bring the bids, but I think it's just semantics. CRE REITs are trading like junior gold mining stocks - high Beta, inverse dollar.
With labour arbitrage at full pace, how could anyone expect jobs to return? Why would anyone think a global recovery would not be further absorbed by low cost countries? Even at the advent of a new dotcom era (whatever that may be), emerging markets are already lined up, invested, trained and ready to exploit it.
No problem here...very soon the green shoot will be, "How can you lose what you don't have?".
We don't need assets to have a bubble anymore. Now it's just paper.