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Capital Context Update: Risk Reversal

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From Capital Context





Volume was relatively light but secondary bonds saw considerable net-selling from the buy-side, focused on Financials and Consumer Noncyclicals.

Stocks and spreads lost ground today following an ebullient pre-open and relatively stable start as the themes we laid out in this morning's
Midday Movers

continued but were exaggerated by some significant unwinds across the Silver complex. Breadth in credit was positive but low beta considerably outperformed high beta and there was notable net selling in the secondary corporate bond market especially in the Financials and Consumer NonCyclical sectors.

By the time, US equities had opened (and remember that UK was shut was we saw a large segment of the FX and credit markets closed today), they had erased much of the OBL-spike and while Silver (and oil but less so Gold) were still down pretty good, we saw a devaluation-trade rally in PMs and S&P futures out of the gate (well everyone knows you buy the stock market in the first day of the month and never lose right?).

Silver managed to get back to unch almost while Gold and Oil well above Friday's highs, but that was as good as it got today for risk assets as we saw a sell-off gaining speed all afternoon helped by some more tom-foolery from Geithner and his emergency 'actions' to delay the debt ceiling debate (and their projections are simply mind-blowing as far as how little they suspect they will need to issue - US austerity? ask Richard Koo how this will end).


Better lucky than good, our suggested
ETF Arb trade

went into the money rather quickly this morning though stocks remain notably rich still and entry is still available at $17.5 or above. Though somewhat less than perfectly fungible, this relationship has held well over the past six months and as we comment, as long as we do not see the structural cyclical shift into intentional releveraging then mean-reversion in this relationship should prevail (and we will watch this very closely).

In the context of
capital structure perspectives

, we note that Consumer Staples (XLP specifically) looks notably overpriced relative to Financials (XLF) at current levels of credit spread, vol, and skew relative to the ETF. Beta would suggest a 1.5x position between the two in the ETFs short Staples and Long Financials (which we don't totally like fundamentally) but relative to credit and vol for each sector we are seeing a different story and this is for a trade, not a lifetime.

The
weakness in financials secondary bonds

today (well selling pressure that is seemingly being soaked up by the dealers with little need to rerack) will perhaps reduce the relative cheapness of financials' equities but this has been a consistent theme and one has to wonder what is going on. My suspicion is that we are seeing front-end flattening as liquidity pressures are priced into financials broadly and forward TSY curves drop suggesting lower NIMs (which along with rising interest expense from refinancing all that TLGP debt will eat into EPS).

Financials were the underperformers among the most liquid IG names though today but moves were small at worst - though we note somewhat full of Schadenfreude given the flip-floppery we saw this weekend that BRK was the worst performer in IG credit names (though only +2bps to 107bps so don't get too excited).

It would appear, though we always hedge when we count our chickens like this, that
our explanation

of last week's flush in credit (and less so in equities) was due to the gamma build up and it seems we settled a little here and returned to more normalcy in the days since. Though IG and HY were wider close to close (from Friday), they basically retraced half the gains from Friday (while we note that equities basically closed at Friday's low of session), IG swung 1.5bps from open to close (after opening 0.5bps tight to Friday's close). IG trading was very consistent today also - not as gappy as we saw on the way down.






IG credit has adjusted more rapidly than HY (our up-in-quality theme) but HY's closer relationship suggests equity/vol remain a little too positive currently.

HY also opened considerably above Friday's high/close ($0.25 or so) but just like IG, drifted wider (lower in price) all day, ending closer to Friday's wides (low price) than IG (more in line with equities' relative performance). HY widened around 8bps from open to close, though only 3bps close-to-close.

While there are many factors of note, we thought it useful for some context to consider the relative levels of IG and HY credit to the implied values that stocks, vol, and skews suggest is appropriate. We create these implied levels from the top-down, for a more actionable tactical asset allocation perspective (and easier to execute) as well as bottom-up (more accurate and fungible - though a little more noisy when aggregated).

The main point is that we have seen
IG credit and its equity/vol/skew implied valuation converge in the last few days (rise in vol, drop in stock, steepen in skew) while the relative differential in HY remains high.

The convergence in IG is critical since if the divergence we had been seeing was more structural (i.e. due to relative performance attributes of a re-leveraging management option taking advantage of steep WACC curves) then we would expect the higher quality (more leverageable) names to be mispriced systemically - which they are not.


From our perspective

, which admittedly has its more bearish tilt (for the many reasons fundamental and flow that we have laid out in recent weeks), we suspect the relative cheapness (wider spreads or more risk aversion) that we see in
HY credit is in fact a truer picture of attitudes currently

and given the lack of USD-numeraire in 'spread-land' relative to 'US-equity-land', we would be less than positive at BTFD around here in the S&P500 - no matter how many times you are told how cheap equity valuations are empirically or how great earnings surprises are.

The
up-in-quality trade in credit remains

(both cash and synthetic), our comments this morning on vol and equity performance still stand also as substantially confirming this. The reason we are growing a little more cautious recently is we are seeing gradual shifts in some of the tail risk hedges we watch - we mean the cost of these hedges is dropping. Whether it is credit vol levels or skews, equity vol skews and term structures, HY-IG relative value, HY term structures or equity and credit implied correlations, we are seeing some lift in pressure on these - far from being a good thing, we suspect this is weak hands throwing in as this last rip (our gamma comments earlier) were perhaps too much. With so many pros holding tail hedges, there is little to extend any day to day dips into sustainable unwinds - we keep a close eye in a topsy-turvy way on these levels and suspect that small drops in the premia for these catastrophe hedges will be enough to enable any dip in risk assets to drop further should they occur again.

Our insights into low and high beta vol relative moves does provide some color on this - that low beta vol is more bid that high beta and high beta is underperforming (even on up days) - suggests traders/managers are willing to protect their low beta (think more sustainable quality firms perhaps) while they are unwinding the higher beta positions outright (as opposed to overlaying protection).


Bottom-line

, while Silver tanked today (thank you Geithner, margins, and OBL), gold fell nothing like as much (nor as much as its recent beta would suggest). DXY managed to creep back above 73 by the close but remains precariously low and Treasuries were bid all day, rallying more on the back of Geithner's reduced supply outlook (not sure on that truthiness). Credit is telling a different story and the up-in-quality, rise-in-dispersion trade that we are seeing play out (lower implied correlations) suggests a regime shift from 'extreme' value high beta BTFD to a more reasoned protect capital scenario. Especially in credit, we strongly suggest rotation to IG non-financials, financials 3s5s flatteners (bit of a hedge if FINs rally or if things hit the fan in liquidity), and utlization of core carry strategies in IG (and select crossover names) while grabbing low cost long vol positions for some downside protection.



We strongly believe that between bottom-up releveraging cycle concerns, top-down macro developments, and global liquidity flows, that the need to discriminate more effectively in credit and equity portfolios is as high as it has been since 2007.
Getting started

for individual investors is not as daunting as it may seem (even if some of our commentary can be somewhat archaic). We have extensive relative value ideas for
equity and credit positions

that can help in creation of actively managed balanced portfolios and for
institutional investors

, we offer a more sophisticated access to our model and research platform.


Europe

was largely closed and what trades did get executed were low liquidity. Most of the action was in the short-dated sovereigns (PORTUG of note) but CDS was very quiet and financials were unmoved.


Asia

and
Australian

spreads were in but again holidays were a major part of the lower than normal activity. We do note that Japan corps tightened almost 3bps relative to AXJ (in favor of our compression trade and back under 20bps once again) and ITRX AUS outperformed AXJ also having shifted from cheap to rich relative to the broader index in the last week.


Index/Intrinsics Changes


CDX16 IG

+0.75bps to 88.5 ($-0.02 to $100.43) (FV -0.9bps to 87.07) (19 wider - 101 tighter <> 59 steeper - 66 flatter) - Trend Tighter.



CDX16 HVOL

-2bps to 147 (FV -1.36bps to 143.24) (3 wider - 26 tighter <> 12 steeper - 18 flatter) - Trend Tighter.



CDX16 ExHVOL

+1.62bps to 70.03 (FV -0.76bps to 70.02) (16 wider - 80 tighter <> 48 steeper - 48 flatter).



CDX16 HY

(30% recovery) Px $-0.13 to $103.25 / +3.1bps to 420.7 (FV -2.18bps to 406.93) (24 wider - 69 tighter <> 41 steeper - 59 flatter) - Trend Tighter.



LCDX15

(70% recovery) Px $-0.08 to $101.375 / +1.81bps to 231.31 - Trend Tighter.



MCDX15

-12.38bps to 115.625bps. - Trend Tighter.



ITRX15 Main

-0.04bps to 96.5bps (FV-0.61bps to 98.39bps).



ITRX15 HiVol

-0.75bps to 135.1bps (FV-0.77bps to 131.94bps).



ITRX15 Xover

-1.9bps to 352.1bps (FV-2.33bps to 342.02bps).



ITRX15 FINLs

-0.9bps to 128.5bps (FV-0.86bps to 130.54bps).



DXY

strengthened 0.17% to 73.06.



Oil

fell $0.96 to $112.97.



Gold

fell $17.27 to $1546.43.



VIX

increased 1.24pts to 15.99%.



10Y US Treasury yields

fell 0.9bps to 3.28%.



S&P500 Futures

lost 0.13% to 1357.9.

Spreads were mixed in the US with IG worse, HVOL improving, ExHVOL weaker, and HY selling off. IG trades 3.6bps tight (rich) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of -1.4s.d.. At 88.5bps, IG has closed tighter on only 28 days in the last 600 trading days (JAN09). The last five days have seen IG flat to its 50d moving average. HY trades 15.9bps wide (cheap) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of -0.6s.d. and at 420.71bps, HY has closed tighter on only 24 days in the last 600 trading days (JAN09). Indices typically underperformed single-names with skews widening in general.

Comparing the relative HY and IG moves to their 50-day rolling beta, we see that HY outperformed by around 0.8bps (or 25%). Interestingly, based on short-run empirical betas between IG, HY, and the S&P, stocks outperformed HY by an equivalent 0.4bps (~ 12%), and stocks outperformed IG by an equivalent 0.2bps (~ 22%) - (implying IG underperformed HY (on an equity-adjusted basis)).


Among the IG16 names in the US

, the worst performing names (on a DV01-adjusted basis) were Berkshire Hathaway Inc (+2.83bps) [+0.02bps], SLM Corp (+2bps) [+0.01bps], and Hartford Financial Services Group (+1.5bps) [+0.01bps], and the best performing names were Arrow Electronics Inc. (-6.42bps) [-0.05bps], CA, Inc. (-4.25bps) [-0.03bps], and RR Donnelley & Sons Company (-4.24bps) [-0.03bps] // (absolute spread chg) [HY index impact].


Among the HY16 names in the US

, the worst performing names (on a DV01-adjusted basis) were Dynegy Holdings Inc. (+20.98bps) [+0.17bps], American Axle & Manufacturing Inc (+17.33bps) [+0.17bps], and MBIA Insurance Corporation (+19.84bps) [+0.14bps], and the best performing names were Boyd Gaming Corporation (-23.69bps) [-0.22bps], DISH DBS Corporation (-19.68bps) [-0.21bps], and First Data Corp (-17.52bps) [-0.16bps] // (absolute spread chg) [HY index impact].

 

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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:19 | 1232477 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It is interesting that with front end flattening, decreased tail premia, low volatility showing relative strength and treasury yields overall decreasing that the market seems to possibly be signalling downside risk and bracing for it at the same time if i am correctly reading the chicken entrails here. My gut feeling is we dont see a stock selloff this summer after qe2 ends but perhaps consolidate or drift around in a tight channel for a while. Actually a very boring summer would be a nice break!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 02:10 | 1232994 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

consolidate or drift around in a tight channel

http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/barro/files/RareDisastersAssetPricesWelfareCosts_AER.pdf

Reading music linear one. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snuAmANep8s&feature=related

PMI drags are real so flat is out.

Onward given Consumer fatigue.

http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=43&FirstYear=2010&LastYear=2011&Freq=Qtr

 regional misery index is my point, and yes biflation. For my contextual consideration -4.4% ytd. Our Company paid 5.0% to acount over base from epp "employee performance plan based on corporate metrix for last year so yea given reality im down over 4 percent yoy given headwinds to the old dollar still sinking and inflation. I consider myself fortunate given aggregate reality. 

peace

 

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 19:26 | 1232178 jm
jm's picture

Thx.  Be nice to see GO CDS in there too.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 18:44 | 1232056 nyse
nyse's picture

These CC daily wrapups are great.

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